Impact value sprints?

[Harmonicaslim]

If I remember correctly, Nunnamaker found that MDN Sprints with E-6 or E-7 running styles actually produced a small profit. Was wondering if any of you data base guys could see if that's still the case?
Thanks,
Slim

[ryesteve]

If I remember correctly, Nunnamaker found that MDN Sprints with E-6 or E-7 running styles actually produced a small profit. Was wondering if any of you data base guys could see if that's still the case?

Yes, and no. Going back over the past 2 months, in MSW:

Q SpdPts Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
6 -95.60 634.00 0.8492 67 317 .2114
7 20.80 122.00 1.1705 19 61 .3115

and in Mcl:

Q SpdPts Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
6 -112.70 570.00 0.8023 63 285 .2211
7 -30.80 328.00 0.9061 43 164 .2622


Sorry for the column alignment, but this msg editor isn't cooperating

[Harmonicaslim]

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[hurrikane]

unfortunately early speed, while holding the same win %, has dropped in ROI.

Crowd caught on. it does seem to be turning around though. The crowd is like a bunch of lemmings running for the cliff.

[Overlay]

I think early speed will always have importance as a handicapping factor. It just needs to be kept in proper perspective (the same as any other indicator), and used in a context of multiple fundamental variables and the presence of betting value.

[Tom]

Check out the HTR newsletters at HTR2.com - Ken MAssa did some interseting studies on late pace (F3, SP, LP) in MSW races.

I actually now favor those three factors over early speed in MSW and and hitting more than I used to.