handicapping and wagering Experiment

[joeyspicks]

I have a nephew who likes to play the races......he loses.......often:bang:

He often uses me as his "excuse" for continuing to play around with his life and stay broke. He's 23 and he knows enough to be dangerous. Many times winning several hundred or even thousands over a few days......only to lose it all back (sound familar ??). When broke he tends to say things like " Uncle Joe plays the horses and hes doing alright". I got tired of it in May of this year and challanged him to do it the right way.....or STOP.....and for God's sake STOP invoking my name in his madness. The result tells much about the psychology of betting, the need for excitement(a huge downfall), and answers the question: Are YOU REALLY playing to make a profit......or for the excitement? (either is ok...just KNOW what you are about).

What I did is challenge him......by banking him $500 to start. Pick 20 playable races per day (100 per week). I can override any picks. And he MUST bet the way I instruct. NO EXOTICS......win only.

Now I set him up with a simple "due column" betting progression.

(side note: I KNOW I KNOW I KNOW......IT does NOT work! Thats the collective wisdom of the posts I read on this site. Problem is : I DONT AGREE as I have been using one for 5 years to make a steady profit!!!!)

I read the posts and I agree with the dangers etc.....that are well documented.....but I happen to agree with DICK SCHMIDT'S quote made I believe in 2002:

"I used to be very negative about Due Column. However, I have personal knowledge of two players that literally make a living from it. My opinion is that it is just another way of managing money."

(forgive me Dick if you no longer believe this:lol: )


......my opinion is that most who TRY due column are EXTREMLY UNDERFUNDED for the size bet they wish to make.....THAT is the biggest downfall as that will QUICKLY make you BROKE.
.................................................. .........

anyway: My nephew was to start with a $2 objective per race. Thats right $2 !!!

before I get too long winded......the results of JUNE AND JULY

June : 371 actual plays (about 18/day) 94 wins (25%) (nothing"stellar")

most wins played between $6 and $12 with the highest $22.00

results: Start $500 Finish $1346 profit $846


July: 340 actual plays (about 17/day) 98 wins

start $1346 finish $2116 profit $770 (28%)

2 month profit: $1616
longest losing streak: 12 (with 3 no plays in the series)
largest bet $88.00
largest drawdown: $238.00

He played too many favorites and sometimes took (IMHO) unrealistic bombs away chances. Interestingly I only veto'ed about 70 plays (10%) and most of the no plays were my decision.

Now my reason for the post: The amazing thing is my Nephew NO LONGER WANTS to play the horses !!!!!! IT TOO FREAKING BORING FOR HIM:bang:

This kid NEVER MADE A 2-MONTH PROFIT OF $10......let alone $1616 (really more like $1416 after subtracting $200 for data from HDW).

Now this type of play is NOT for everyone and my purpose is NOT TO START THE DUE COLUMN DEBATE OVER AGAIN. no no and NO !!! Its really about the psychology of betting and the NEED for excitement. IF YOU NEED ACTION OR EXCITEMENT........Just STOP NOW looking for new and improved software because IT AINT GONNA HELP!!

......
With aprox. $1800 to start August.......I believe he could have increased his play objective to $3.......or just remain cautious at $2 for another month or so. :confused:

As you can see from the betting results....its nothing spectacular (25 and 28%) . Many can do this or even better.

I am usually in the 30-35% range with a mix of favorites and mid priced horses. I have been e-mailed by a few on this board with questions and within this post is a lot of my philosophy of playing. My posts have been an almost mantra like calling for money management, money management, money management. Before you dismiss this.....please realize I have nothing to sell and have NO NEED to convince anyone to "my way". But its obvious (at least to me:lol: ) that some are struggling and think deep down inside that its in the "handicapping". Its not.


note: To add to Dicks quote from above: I know only 3 (maybe 4) profitable handicappers.......and I know many more highly successful commodities traders......They ALL have ONE thing in common. They talk endlessly about money management and capital preservation. Speaking of commodities....the parallells to hnadicapping is striking......Nearly every commodity magazine or newspaper is FILLED with ADS promising riches...IF you just BUY this NEW SOFTWARE that has picked EVERY TOP AND BOTTOM for the past umpteen years. Its NOT the winning traders these ads are aimed at!


ps I know......long assed post. I hope its a little helpful to a few....if not please feel free to discard.

[melrose]

Thanks for sharing.

BTW: can I borrow $500 and a few hot tips?

[Secretariat]

Joeyspicks,

Actually I'm interested in your approach. Do you use a rising plateau of a series of bets in your due column, slump breakers, a maximum bet, sub-banks, or any such tools?

I understand the psychology of betting issue and think it is an improtant component. Some people must hit long prices or they are not happy so they play lots of exotics, others need consistent winners so they play show, or lower priced horses. Some are spot players, some attempt to play lots of races arguing that more turnover is necessary for them to enjoy the game.

But the due column presents a couple of psychological battles of which I'd be interested in your response.

1. Stress from a losing streak watching your bet go up and up and the deu column is only collecting a few dollars profit overall. How do you cope?

2. After hitting a horse betting say 50 bucks and returning to 2 bucks? Psychologically, what does that do to you. For example, say you hit a 50 dollar bet on a horse paying 5.00, and you drop down to 2.00 and your next horse pays 25.00. That can be damaging with "why couldn't those be reversed"

3. What of the inevitable that hits the maximum bet and loses? How long does it take to make up a sub bank (assuming you use sub banks)?

I began a long time ago with Due Column - ala Lou Holloway and liked it, but I always found that some races need a rating sort of what Beyer advocated: Prime Bet, Good Bet, Action Bet. A strait jacked form of betting seems to lock one into treating all types of race situations equally. Even kelly does this to an extent unless you use Edge as Mitchell describes it on a race by race basis, and that entails excellent race by race line making. Which is sometihng else, some of us are good at overall value statistics, but lack sufficient race by race lines making interpretation skills. Honestly, it doesn't matter as long as you win.

Anyway, I hope you post more on your approach to due column. We're all interested in ideas.

[JackS]

Here's a mild method that is actually a blackjack bet but should work equally as well with horses. The bet is that you CAN win two races in a row. It starts with a modest amount, say 10 bucks and degresses by 1 dollar after each loss. The bet continues until you reach $5 then the sequence begins again. If you should hit your $8 bet on an $8 horse, your profit would be $24 for that bet. This is where you must have confidence. After this first win, the bet returns to $10 plus the total profit from your first win. In this case it would be $34 ($24plus$10). Doing this guarantees that one of your wins will be one of the largest bets you make that day.
Obviously this type of bet is not for everyone and it's not for me. Variations might be designed around this concept such as a half-profit bet instead of the full profit. Also anyone trying this should have full confidence in their own abilities and probably should be playing their home-town track that they already own a lot of confidence in. Every0ne else beware.

[Dick Schmidt]

Joey,


Regarding my quote from 2002, one of the guys using the due column is still at it and still banking winnings. I've lost track of the other guy (he lives in Australia), but he was going well a year ago.

While the due column is not my favorite money management scheme, it is much better than the method used by most horseplayers - bet what you got and lie about how much you win. When people ask me about the due column and won't change their mind, I do tell them that they need to realize that a long streak can wipe them out. Use multiple bankrolls and put a firm upper limit on the bets where you take a big loss and start over. For the consistent player, it can work very well.

The most telling part of the story is that your nephew no longer wants to play the horses. I've told people over and over that when you do it right, betting the horses is very boring. I also find a great many similarities to trading commodities, especially the money management (self management) parts. I hope your nephew continues to be bored with the races and the money stacks up. Watch out that he doesn't start sneaking in a few exactas and "action bets" when you aren't looking.

Good post.

Dick

A master is one who, after studying a thousand techniques, finds three he can use any time, and to perfection--Shaolin adage.

[midnight]

Due column isn't my cup of tea, but if it works, go for it.

Ditto on the game being very boring when done right. It's a job, or at least like a job.

[Vegas711]

I could use another uncle. Sounds like you know what you are doing.

[joeyspicks]

Dick S : "I've told people over and over that when you do it right, betting the horses is very boring."


I couldnt agree more & that was the central point of the story. As long as my nephew could "fool" himself into thinking he was trying to beat the game...he somehow convinced himself it was worth all the grief it was causing him and in his life. He really was hooked the the excitement.



Secretariat: "After hitting a horse betting say 50 bucks and returning to 2 bucks? Psychologically, what does that do to you. For example, say you hit a 50 dollar bet on a horse paying 5.00, and you drop down to 2.00 and your next horse pays 25.00. That can be damaging with "why couldn't those be reversed"

Man oh man Secretariat.....YOU NAILED IT! I mean the problem psychologically and it is a tough one! No doubt about it.......EVERY FIBER of your being does not want to return to $2. Every fiber of your being is CONVINCED its a stupid thing to do. Thats why I always return to MOTIVATION.

IF you are motivated to make a LONG TERM profit over every other motivation.....you force yourself to make that return. My biggest problem for years was not when I was losing........but when I was winning! I somehow would get it in my head that I had it all wired....I was not going to lose again:lol: ....of course I really didnt believe that....I just bet like it and it was disasterous!

I had to fight making "side bets"....exotics that would boost my bottom line. The problem was when they were successful they "took me over" and the next thing I knew I was all over the place again.

The problems with due column are well documented and if you are overbetting and underfunded (most are IMHO) you will go broke. If you start with the correct unit like I did with my nephew the problem becomes PSCHOLOGICAL.
Its tough.....especially when you first make the change.....almost impossible. However if you keep your eye on the prize (long term profit) you have a chance of overcoming the pschological hurdles. You have to remind yourself all the time. The pull to make changes is STILL there for me......most of the time I laugh it off:ThmbUp:

A friend who plays Supers/Tri's laughed at me when I showed him what I was doing with my nephew. He plays a lot of action and looks for big payoffs. I asked him what his profit was for June/July? He was lucky to just break even because he hit a high 4 figure payoff in July. Lots of thrills along the way...he was up over $5000 at one time. When I told him my nephews total for June/July (+$1400 net)........he STOPPED laughing. But he most definitly will not change.

[timtam]

Joey,

Very interesting post. What was the cutoff of bets per day? Did he have a

daily goal and then quit or did he play until the races ended for the day?

I tried due column and either left too soon or too late ( if you know what I

mean) :bang:

[twindouble]

Joey;

I've touched the phychology of the game a few times on the DRF forum.

To delve into the minds of horse players and try to figure out what they do and why they do it would put you on the couch. We all bring what ever skills and tools we have to the game, including our psychological make up that spreads over a wide range of positives and negitives. Depending on who you are if you know.

What I find interesting on these forums is, most avoid the word gambling whereas I embrace it. I have always been a risk taker and most successful people take risks some huge compared to my world, they are out of my league so it's important to understand where you are. In other words you can invest, make money, live good but your not Trump by any means, or you can shoot for the moon without the necessary resorces or talent and flop. A plus for tring anyway. Is horse racing and gambling addictive? Well yes, so is food, booze, woman, choc and peanuts. Anything we enjoy can be addictive, those addictions can also be distructive in one way or another as we all know.

As far as your nephew goes, I would venture to say he didn't get bored with the game, he got bored with what you were attempting to do with your help and that was to crimp is stye. Young people don't want to be under the thumb of their parents or anyone else, they want to strike out on their own and rightfully so. I would think he's is going to risk his money in his own way playing the horses or something else.

Good luck,

T.D

[joeyspicks]

Timtam:

We picked 20 races per day to handicap (mostly sprints) and passed races where the top 2 plays were overbet or the top play was overbet and we really didnt like anything else. I picked 20 because I wanted 100 plays per week (5 days). No magic number but we only played those races that day.

[andicap]

Joey,
Is it possible we're related? If not, can you adopt a nephew?

:D :D

Funny about the job being "boring." You always hear about famous athletes making millions of dollars who lose their intensity and focus because they are tired of doing the same thing day after day. Everything gets old after a while, I guess.

[ryesteve]

Everything gets old after a while, I guess.
A friend of mine used to love to say, after eying a particularly incredible-looking woman, "Just think... no matter how good she looks to us, there's some guy out there who's tired of that" :D

[Lefty]

sec, Lou Holloway was my money mgt "guru" too.

[Hosshead]

Joey, Are you saying that straight flat betting (on those 20 picks/day) would have resulted in a loss ,and that Due betting made it into a profit ??
If so, how much of a loss (- ROI ) were you able to "tip" the other way ?

[joeyspicks]

Im not saying it made it profitable.......but it most definitely was more profitable.

why? Most winning plays have more bet on them than the losing plays. Its the strength and the weakness of the method (and why I started with such a small base bet).

What I liked about the method is it changed my play (over time). The discipline required made me a different player. I know playing a series I do not have to overplay or make up for a lost play. I simply find my 20 plays for the day....using my handicapping procedures......sequence them by time....and play them when they come up. YOU MUST START SMALL because a losing streak of over 8-9 plays starts building your bets fast. You must have confidence in your handicapping and cannot play short priced horse (my nephew did too much).
A lot can happen that goes against the grain. For instance we played $2 on a 10-1 horse that pays $22.....the biggest price we had!!!!! My nephew thought I was nuts. After day one we were up about $6 !! You must think long term....thats one of things I was trying to teach him.

[Secretariat]

sec, Lou Holloway was my money mgt "guru" too.

Didn't know that Lefty. Huey Mahl took over the old Systems and Methods from Lou. Did you know Lou personally? I still use his ideas on betting.

Joeypicks,

I am curious about one thing. When you run into a race that looks like it is a "two horse" race, and it is difficult to divide between the two, do you dutch the two, or pass unless you have a single play. I'd appreciate if you'd outline say a day of how you might play a card if you don't mind.

Thanks.

[bobhilo]

Would you tell us more about the progression?
...small bets....sprints....20 plays a day....win bets only...decent handicapping(of course)

sounds intriguing....

what I remember was figure you are "due" $100 a day

what is the progession of $2 bets,, 2,2 4, 8 or similar?,runouts....etc....

interesting thread

[Lefty]

sec, sadly, I didn't get to meeet Lou personally, but did come to know Huey a little bit.
I'm not using the progressions right now, trying to do it on a flat bet, then move up, kinda like a plateau. I often bet 2 horses though, if i'm getting 5-1 or more on both. I seldom make a bet under 5-1 odds anymore. Needless to say, i get into some bad strks.

[joeyspicks]

Secretariet: You most certainly can dutch.....although I didnt very often. Usually when I disliked the top 2-3 favorites and had two picks at least at 5-1.

Normally my play was in the top 3 or 4 odds (they win close to 70% + of the races). I seldom played an actual favorite (seldom meaning maybe 2-3 times per day). Losing streaks as well as playing too many low priced horses, are the "enemy" of this type of play. Because I was so conservative I was able to avoid long losing streaks. (you can also play to place or show....its tricky becuase you must esitmate the payoff).

[Secretariat]

Did you play a percentage of your desired amount for the day? or a percentage of your money in the hole?

For example due column wagering means slightly differnet things to different people? To some one hit wipes clean all losses. To others they use a gradual percentage of due. For example 10% of losses. In other words if you were 100 in the hole in a percentage of loss scheme, your bet was at 10 on a 10% scale. Some I know kept it at 10 until a profit was realized. Others adjusted it as the loss retreated.

A progression, ala Martingale, seems to incur a doubling up (assuming even odds), but in due column the bet is modified based on the current odds which by the way can change abruptly at post it seems.

I am curious if your due column approach is more of a one play recoups all, OR is it a gradual due column approach such as the 10% of the debt approach. Just curious.

Dutching, etc. or multiple bets must create a re-analysis of the proper bet size to meet a due column situation in a one bet recoups all situation.

[joeyspicks]

I usually played one play recoups all (THATS why I started so small)!!!

There are plenty of variations including Mini- banks....pct recoup etc..
I kept it simple.....with a MAX. on bet size. Starting small and having a consistent method are most important. I used this to change the direction I
was heading and improve my discipline.

[Doug3312]

Joey,

What size bank did you use and what was your maximum bet, starting with $2. Incidently, Out of the Red in the Black just arrived. Thanks!

[joeyspicks]

Just recently with my nephew the bank size was $500 and the largest size bet was $88 (I think......I'm not where my records are right now). He picked too many low priced horses without winning to get the bet that high.

[Art P]

Is the only way to play I start with 20 win best and increase 1 unit every loss In july my $1000 banroll rose to $11.500 .Not bad a 10k profit. Progressive win betting is the ONLY way to play

[andicap]

Is the only way to play I start with 20 win best and increase 1 unit every loss In july my $1000 banroll rose to $11.500 .Not bad a 10k profit. Progressive win betting is the ONLY way to play

OK, now I know it's Fischorchess playing a big joke on us or maybe "The Ripper's" revenge.

Or ITM is back. Or High Roller messing with our minds.

Of course if I find out it's just Derek having a go at us I would lobby to revoke his WR priviliges. :D

Maybe it's Joeypicks' nephew?

[Hosshead]

OK, now I know it's Fischorchess playing a big joke on us or maybe "The Ripper's" revenge.

Or ITM is back. Or High Roller messing with our minds.

Of course if I find out it's just Derek having a go at us I would lobby to revoke his WR priviliges. :D

Maybe it's Joeypicks' nephew? You forgot V.S. !! Oh, I forgot VS is now Equineer. Well then- Maybe "Seed of VS." ! :D

[timtam]

It's just more evident that Art P. is still using Mike Warren's picks. Just a

simple $10,000 profit a month. This game is just that easy :eek:

[joeyspicks]

Andicap: Maybe it's Joeypicks' nephew?


I WISH:lol:


most likely John Piesen or Kelso:lol: :lol: :lol: