ODDS LINE - help

[frankfig]

I use my own figs and would like to know if anyone has a method of making a betting line by using the figures. I know there are ways to do it online , but was wondering if anyone has ideas to do it on paper. The numbers i use are simillar to the beyers[ 115-0 ] . Example if i had a 7 horse race with the #s in order being, 82,79,78,72,70,65,63. . What kind of line would you give for this type of race ??? Also what about a 12 horse field , say 105,96,95,89,87,80,78,78,76,70,67,54 ? i know about the fierro templates, but there are alot of different size large and short fields. Thank you

[headhawg]

I don't think that you can make an accurate odds line from numbers alone; they must be viewed in context. Look at your 7 horse field example. With a 6 point gap (78 - 72) between your 3rd and 4th fig horses and only 4 points separating your top three, it would appear that on numbers alone that you only have three legit contenders, yes?

But what if this is a MdnClm 30K race in which all the horses are proven losers at this level and the horse that ran the 70 is a lightly raced MSW dropper? I might like that horse a whole lot better than the 82 fig horse that has failed at 30K two or three times, how about you?

If your new to line making and Fierro's charts don't work for you then you might just want to play the longest odds out of what you think are the best three or four contenders.

And if you can't narrow a 12 horse field down to 4 contenders? Pass.

[chickenhead]

I don't think this will do you any good, but thought it might be fun to see if a few people post. I use this odds line for my projections, 5-1 is about the cutoff point for horses I would view as playable. Here are my numbers for your two cases:

1.86
3.01
3.45
8.43
12.51
36.16
49.46

0.87
4.48
4.83
12.32
19.22
93.83
106.84
160.76
238.13
2749.00
5499.00
9999.00

[Tom]

www.pacefigures.com (http://www.pacefigures.com) - under TOOLS on top.

Where else would you look for handicapping help than CJ - The MASTER! ;)

[mcikey01]

If you are insistent on looking for an odds line method using figs based on one instance of handicapping factor only per horse, you might try Monte Carlo Simulation. There are several free tools available online to download that are simple to install and use.

No paper and pencil method can equal the calculating power and reliability of computer software, especially if f you insist upon a one factor, one occurance based fig for each horse.

Following is the results of averaging the odds of 30 sets of 10,000 simulations of the Beyer figs for your 7 horse field.

82 --- 7/2
79 --- 4/1
78 --- 9/2
72 --- 7/1
70 --- 9/1
65 --- 15/1
63 --- 20/1

You have to be willing to test any odds line method over hundreds, if not thousands, of races of different class, distance, field size to judge its accuracy of the actual win percentage for each odds level projected by the method.

And, ultimately, the profitability of the method via identification of overlays.

BTW, fair odds projections can also be done through use of a handheld programmable calculator. Try the site http://www.netcapper.com (http://www.netcapper.com/) for information about a calculator with pre-loaded software.

[Tom]

Gordon also has an odds line program for sale over there. I have it and it is decent.

[frankfig]

thanks everyone. I use a projection method for my figures for factors like, dropdowns,track cond,dist,trainer changes, med changes, horses that where hurt or helped by the pace of the race, improved works,ect. It is usually a few points different then the actual number and is just my projection, but i am confident with my final # and bet accordingly. Thanks, TOM do you use FIGLINE ? Do you use a speed fig to get your line ? i wanted to buy the hand held palm last year but was told they dont make them anymore. THANKS

[BillW]

Frankfig,

You might also find Dave Schwartz's discussion interesting from last Saturday on Travis' radio show.

Look at post #1 in this thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=21433&page=3&pp=10

Look in the show archive.

Bill

[frankfig]

Thanks for the link Bill. Dave has a very interesting way of grading a race. I missed the begining of his segment about what are fair odds for the grades. I think he said C horses are in a bracket of [ 4-1 to 7-1 ] If someone knows from A -F odds brackets can you please post. THANKS AGAIN

[BillW]

Thanks for the link Bill. Dave has a very interesting way of grading a race. I missed the begining of his segment about what are fair odds for the grades. I think he said C horses are in a bracket of [ 4-1 to 7-1 ] If someone knows from A -F odds brackets can you please post. THANKS AGAIN

I don't recall off hand but the interview is archived so you can listen again. Plus, he's on the board all the time and may answer directly.

Bill

[Speed Figure]

This is something that I use all the time. It's so simple, but it kick's A$$. I take my top 5 contenders and use this simple betting line.

Top = 3/1
2nd = 9/2
3rd = 6/1
4th = 8/1
5th = 10/1

If your top pick is below the 3/1 min. It does not mean he's a bad bet. I won't bet it to win, but it could be a pick 3 or pick 4 single. I get many horses in the 2nd & 3rd picks that meet the betting line. Now not to redboard, but I had a real nice overlay with the winner in the Bing Crosby on sunday. He was my 2nd pick at 9/2, but went off at over 8/1. He was an automatic bet at that price. Try it and see how it works for you. It works for me! :jump: