Pizzolla Rises Again -- with Dan Serra [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

andicap

08-01-2005, 04:08 PM

It didn't take long for Pizzolla to find a new partner in Dan Serra, heretofore known for selling his breeding stats on Pizzolla's old site.

They have now partnered to sell a software program composed of Serra's longheld methods. Serra is supposedly one of the best players in Vegas and now, after 40 years in the game wants to share is methods with a "limited" number of people for the special introductory price of $697 (later will be $997). And oh yeah, you have to buy ITS' $1.50/card files to use it.

Interesting how the brochure says the lower price is for Pizzolla's power clients when I have never ordered anything but the book from him. That's a pretty low ceiling!

Anyway, these guys put Dick Mitchell's old Cynthia Pub letters to shame in the hype departent. This brochure throws in the kitchen sink for overwrought claims, exclamation marks, etc. Every marketing cliche is here: limited number of users, brief introductory price, an old handicapper's secrets he wants to tell because he wants to be known for more than just being a
"breeding expert," (it's never about money -- it's always about ego.)

OK, for Vegas people out there: Is Dan Serra known as one of the sharpest handicappers out there as the letter claims? He supposedly plays at the favorite race book of the pros (they don't say which one -- my guess is Sam's) and is considered the best of the bunch. Some wealthy insider "begged" him not to sell his secrets.

There's a 60-day no questions asked guarantee and the software will ot be releaed for a few weeks because Serra supposedly wanted to add a couple of new features. But of course they're taking orders now and asking for half the price as a deposit.

Oh year, just in case Serra's power angles -- which are designed to make you rich overnight -- are not enough of a lure you get seven Pizzolla bonusues (his Form Cycle pattern, "reversals" theory, etc.).

So it's not enough that the program will give me incredible angles with huge bombs that I would never in a million years come up with without his program -- they need to toss in some of Pizzolla's stuff as well!

Oh yeah, I wasn't going to buy it with just Serra's miracle angles,, but if you're throwing in Pizzolla's theories, well that's very different!

Hurry, limited time only! Don't miss out! You'll be sorry!!!
Quit your job! Buy a Ferrari! Never, ever, ever worry about money again!!!!

:bang: :bang: :bang:

There is one certainty I will bet on -- someone on this board will post a thread asking if anyone has tried it and if it's any good.

P.T. Barnum and W.C. Fields were so right about suckers.

So let me answer that question before they ask: If it truly worked as advertised, there is no world in the world they would sell it. What, Dan's gonig to give up horseplaying now because even with a "limited" number of buyers those $100 bombs will become $20 horses sure enough when people start betting them. And the $20 horses will become $12 ones.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Serra figures he can make more money selling software than betting on his picks even if they are good. Let's say he's a 50-50 partner with Pizzolla. They sell 500 of these at an average of $800 a piece. That's $400,000 minus marketing/development costs. (Can anyone guess what that would be?) Even if that's $100,000, that leaves Serra with a cool $150,000

But wait -- he's probably getting a cut of the downloads. If those 500 people download an average of just 3 tracks a day, that's over $1,000 a year per person in revenue or $500,000. If Serra is getting even 20% of that, it's another $100,000.

If he wants to slow down betting the horses that's not a bad substitute for a yearly income.

So maybe you ought to rush out and buy the software now before all those $100 horses disappear. :D :D :D :D
Hey, that's why the guarantee is for 60 days -- that's how long it will take to kill the odds. :D :D

JimL

08-01-2005, 04:25 PM

Andi, I felt the same way when I read the hype in that letter. Cynthia, advertising is mild compared to this new release! JimL

Wickel

08-01-2005, 06:33 PM

Dan Serra must have split with Dave Powers and RPM. Through the summer 2005 catalog, Serra's stuff was being marketed by RPM, especially as freebies if you purchased Mark Cramer's newsletter. Of course, these were the pen and pencil variety. Money talks.

Buckeye

08-01-2005, 08:49 PM

Just say the magic word, this is an "incredible" offer!

Thank you so much MP. :bang:

ratpack

08-01-2005, 09:54 PM

OK, for Vegas people out there: Is Dan Serra known as one of the sharpest handicappers out there as the letter claims? He supposedly plays at the favorite race book of the pros (they don't say which one -- my guess is Sam's) and is considered the best of the bunch. Some wealthy insider "begged" him not to sell his secrets.

I can't speak for now but I lived in Las Vegas from 1997 to 1999 and lived right behind Palace Station (no not in that alley) and Dan was in that Race Book all the time. I can't speak to his handicapping prowess, if fact I did not know who he was until I saw a picture of him a few years after I came back to LA.

NoDayJob

08-02-2005, 12:24 AM

Has anyone tried it? Have you quit your day job yet? Do you need an armoured car to take your track winnings to the bank? Maybe Mr. Pizzola might be interested in marketing my "JSS" and "SKHP" programs? I could use some extra walking around money. How 'bout it Mr. "P"?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

NDJ

kingfin66

08-02-2005, 01:02 AM

You're guilty of as much hype as you accuse Pizzolla of. I came into this thread thinking that there was a much anticipated seminar being announced. Instead, I was treated to your sarcasmn and negativity.

takeout

08-02-2005, 01:31 AM

Maybe there should be a poll on the sleaziest marketers in the game. ;)

midnight

08-02-2005, 03:14 AM

I know Dan Serra well, although I haven't talked to him in a while, since maybe late 2002 (whenever I stopped going to racebooks and started playing online). Danny is as good as they get on breeding. He'd put Tomilson (and just about everybody else) to shame. He makes his own sire ratings by hand for wet tracks and turf. He did that for years. The numbers are darned accurate. I sat next to him in the race book and watched him at work. No computer for this guy, at least up to 2003. All pencil and paper and a lot of elbow grease.

As far as handicapping, he isn't one of the greatest. He's competent, but not one of the great minds of the game. Breeding, yes. Overall handicapping, no way.

The race book he used to patronize, at least in 2001 and 2002, was the Gold Coast. I know that because I went in there every morning to talk to a man who had an in to one of the big-name California trainers. Danny was always there, either working on a large mound of papers that dealt with his sire stuff or scanning the DRF's. The Gold Coast would hardly be considered one of the premiere racebooks for the pros. The accomodations are modest at best, the place is noisy, and it's too well-lit. It's a favorite of the low-to-middle range locals, because they usually comp the regulars to free racing forms and a lunch buffet with X amount bet. At the time, Danny had an arrangement where some guy backed him for $50 WP on his sire horses, usually on wet tracks. He hit some monster prices, too. $50 and up wasn't uncommon. But Danny isn't really a gambler at heart.

If he's teaming with Pizzolla, he's lending his name and possibly a few ideas (besides his sire ratings). I doubt Danny even owns a computer, unless he's gotten into them recently. And I won't rant and rave about Mr. Pizzolla, except to say that he learned from Howard Sartin how to repackage the same thing over and over and sell it as something new.

Vegas711

08-02-2005, 04:00 AM

Andi

You took the words right out of my mouth, I was thinking the exact same thing.

Mike Pizzola may I ask WHY?????? this is really low!!!!!

NY BRED

08-02-2005, 04:48 AM

DAN SERRA APPEARS TO HAVE HIS OWN SITE ON POST TIME SOLUTIONS
FOR HIS SIRE RATINGS @ $45 MONTHLY, AND NOW UNDER THE TMH
PROGRAM, THESE NUMBERS ARE INCORPORATED /FACTORED INTO
FINAL RATINGS.

I'M UNCERTAIN WHY ANYONE WOULD RESORT TO SIRE RATINGS AFTER
DOING SPEED/PACE ANALYSIS UNLESS YOU'D WANT A FANTASY TYPE
OF TIE BREAKER,AND POTENTIALLY SEE A WINNING BET GO DOWN IN FLAMES
BASED UPON BLOODLINES RATHER THAN WORKS/TRAINER/POST POSITION
INFLUENCE.

INTERESTINGLY, THE DRF INCORPORATES TOMLINSON RATINGS
WHICH I ALWAYS FORGET/NEGLECT TO REVIEW FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE.

I DO USE THE TMH PROGRAM AND HAVE DONE DECENTLY
WITH IT AS A GUIDE, AND NOT AS A BLACK BOX PROGRAM.

MY ONLY THOUGHT PROCESS (IF I STILL HAVE MY WITS AFTER THIS PAST WEEKEND AT SARATOGA) IS THE ONLY POTENTIAL VALUE OF THE SIERRA RATINGS WOULD BE TO WEIGH FACTORS IN MAIDEN SPECIALS, WHICH
COULD BE USEFUL.
CURRENTLY TMH DOES NOT RATE MSW'S AND IF THIS IS STILL THE CASE,
THERE WOULD BE NO SENSE TO PURCHASE THE PROGRAM.

FINALLY, IF YOU ARE A TMH PURCHASER, I STONGLY FEEL
THERE SHOULD BE AN UPGRADE OFFER RATHER THAN A NEW PURCHASE/LIMITED DISCOUNT APPROACH TO CURRENT USERS WHICH
IS OFFENSIVE.

turfbar

08-02-2005, 09:45 AM

hey also a Master Handicapper for 12/13 years ,used mike's other products
TMM but find the MASTER really quite good it points out things NOBODY NOBODY else does and I will always remmember MP picking Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont with (hey Billy Mott's Horse forget its name) in a stone cold exacta
that paid $1400 sumtin sumtin!!!!!!!!!!!!

alysheba88

08-02-2005, 09:47 AM

Maybe there should be a poll on the sleaziest marketers in the game. ;)

John Piesen, hands down

brdman12

08-02-2005, 10:51 AM

Funny to see this here today. I received three advertisements in one day.
1. Heritage books from Kelso Sturgon And John Piesen's with all their systems...trashed.
2. Something from Tom Conte..I am not familiar with...trashed
3. Pizzola...at least I read his material...and respect what he has accomplished.
Glad to see someone else did, and can read about other's ideas. I won't order it...but for some reason..I saved it...lol

andicap

08-02-2005, 10:57 AM

Serra's/Pizzolla's brochure tout more than his sire ratings -- they say he's doing this because he's tired of being known as just a breeding guy.

On the computer thing, the brochure notes that Serria is a paper-pencil guy, saying he's a total novice at computers, but was convinced to put his stuff into a program.

On being "negative:"

I know people who swear by TMM. My post was not meant to imply anything about TMM or whether it works or not. Hell, there are probably people making money reading tea leaves. The tone of the brochure just totally turned me off and was way, way over the top. And who the hell would sell a black box program -- which they are promoting it as -- for $700?

JimL

08-02-2005, 11:49 AM

I use TMM, and will continue to use it as long as I can get the files. With that said I remain disappointed that I would recieve such BS, from my software provider. JimL

joeyspicks

08-02-2005, 12:30 PM

Its unfortunate that the "hype" type advertising is alive and well (and not just horse racing). 90% winners etc..... it just plays on the emotions for people who have been losing and are sincerely looking for a way to win. The thinking that "maybe THIS method, program, etc is the one that will do it for me"....the emotions are tugged and the credit card pulled out........

and another sale made...

the interesting thing is horse racing has some HIGH QUALITY products that do not resort to this type of manipulations:

HTR Ken Massa top notch.....no hype
HSH Dick Schmidt ditto
NetCapper Gordan Pine ditto

No need to manipulate, exaggerate claims etc.......REFRESHING !:ThmbUp:

ryesteve

08-02-2005, 12:56 PM

From my own experience, there was one upside to hype: I almost succumbed to one of those hard-sell sales pitches... but before I pulled the trigger, I decided to see what other options were out there... and my search led me to the kind of no-hype good stuff mentioned above. If I hadn't gotten hit by the hype, I never would've had a reason to initiate the search that led me elsewhere.

shanta

08-02-2005, 01:15 PM

[QUOTE=joeyspicks]
HTR Ken Massa top notch.....no hype
HSH Dick Schmidt ditto
NetCapper Gordan Pine ditto

No need to manipulate, exaggerate claims etc.......REFRESHING !:ThmbUp

You can add these 2 to the list also IMO

Speculator - Guy Wadsworth
JCapper - Jeff Platt

Richie :)

joeyspicks

08-02-2005, 01:17 PM

agree!:ThmbUp:

Vegas711

08-02-2005, 04:34 PM

You are exactly rightEveryone who has been going through a rough time is vulnerable to this type of hype.

I am to a regular user of their downloads, hopefully postime says goodbye to this low class type of marketing. This sleazy type of marketing is what turned
me away from Dick Mitchels material.

Mike P. keep your good reputation, learn from this mistake.

Buckeye

08-02-2005, 04:46 PM

MP says "I'm one his best customers" and because of this, he's going to (finally?) help me . . .

Give me a break please.

I BOUGHT TEH
I bought TMH
I bought HM

Isn't that enough?

Just send it Mike for free since you like me so much.

He don't know me.
He don't like me.
He wants my money.

Any questions?

Vegas711

08-02-2005, 05:25 PM

Should one blunder slam the reputation of a company? The answer is no!!!.
I have been dealing with I.T.S , now calling themselves Postime for atleast 3 years and I have delt with Mike P . for the last 13 years during this time I have viewed them as FIRST CLASS and I will continue to do so.

I have learned almost everything that I know of horse racing from them. The 3 day Las Vegas seminar which I have on tape featured Mike P. , Dick S. and Tom H.( 1991) was the best learning tapes ever produced. I also purchased several seminar tapes with MikeP. and Erick they delivered everything that they promised.

If I ever had a problem or a question all I had to do is phone them and they helped me.Their tech staff always has been caring and helpfull.

Look for Postime staff etc to return to their GRADE 1 CLASS, even the great
Cigar lost once.

Buckeye

08-02-2005, 05:53 PM

In my opinion, the energy is gone. His past stuff (friendly letters) had more interesting, better written "hype"

All water under the bridge as far as I'm concerned, but take it for what it's worth.

Here's another idea, don't believe me,

send Mike a few bucks.

BillW

08-02-2005, 06:13 PM

HSH Dick Schmidt ditto

Richie :)

That would be HSH - Dave Schwartz ( he gets at least 0.9 ditto :lol: )

fraggle

08-02-2005, 06:20 PM

NY BRED

08-02-2005, 09:40 PM

one of my big scores, which for the record:

on saturday morning of the belmont, tmc showed the movie,
the lemon drop kid starring bob hope

the race was won by ldk by a photo over vision and verse, with
herb castillo, cousin/or some relative of jose santos

charismatic broke down in the race, with chris antley sttempting to save the horse from being euthanized, holding its leg up from further injury.

chris antley was one of the greatest and coolest jockeys ever to ride in the
tri state who unfortunately succumbed to drugs and a questionable death
which cause, to this day has never been clear.

kingfin66

08-02-2005, 11:04 PM

How do you know it's all hype?? I know Dan Serra, and he's good people, and Michael P. has some really good stuff... I didn't get the letter but has anyone tried the software and know it's worthless? I say wait a month read the reviews and decide for yourself, don't listen to people that GAB at a "SALES" letter and call it bunk if they have never even seen the product....

Some people need a life, Dan and Michael have one....

fraggle,

You now have 2 posts on PA, both of which defend PostTime. If I didn't know better, I would think that you know the good (emphasis on good) folks at PostTime, or may even be one of them. That said, I absolutely agree what you wrote.

I received the sales letter today and it was very heavy on the hype. But guess what, it is a SALES letter. Sales letters are supposed to be heavy on the selling. I was really trying to avoid having to come on here and defend Pizzolla. Honestly, he doesn't really need me defending him, but for some reason people really seem to have a hard-on for the guy. What is it jealousy?

I too have been a customer of his for a few years now. I have bought lots of stuff from him - the book, the lesser software the Mega Package and many pp files. Oh yeah, I went to a seminar too. Am I a sucker? You can all make your own judgments. Maybe I win stupid, but at least I win. My feeling has always been that I have got more than I paid for. Of course, I took the time to learn how use the concepts, ratings, software, etc.

Now, I have been pissed about the PostTime site being down several times over the past few weeks and voiced it on this site. This, however, has nothing to do with a personal opinion about Pizzolla, it is a fact based comment. Some of you, have dealt with him and are entitled to your opinions about him personally and his products.

Back to the letter and the products. Is it a piece of crap product? Maybe. Maybe not. The letter said that it hasn't been released yet, so how would anybody be able to form an honest opinion? My initial feeling about the software is that it is overpriced at the $697. Time will tell. Does the letter make lots of outlandish claims? You bet it does. Next time, Michael should definitely send a letter that says, "Check out all these $8.40 winners!" Yeah, that's the ticket.

Buckeye, I think that you and NoDayJob are basically trolls on this board. Neither of you ever offer anything except brief slams. Buckeye, you in particular seem to be fixated on Pizzolla. I guess, if you buy several products from him and still can't win, then you wouldn't like him. Should of asked for the refund.

Andicap, I was a little surprised by your post...the whole journalist integrity thing...have the facts first. Instead, sarcasmn and cynicism spewed from your keyboard.

Finally, I agree that the letter was probably over the top on the hype. The only thing that I can see that was promised is that people would like it. Oh yeah, and the second promise was that if you don't like, you can return it, no questions asked. Anybody that has ever dealt with the folks at PostTime, probably even somebody as hell bent against Pizzolla as Buckeye, would know that their guarantee is legit.

ratpack

08-02-2005, 11:17 PM

As far as over the top hype RPM still has that title.

Terry Riggs

08-02-2005, 11:24 PM

Aren't you tired of it, you can'nt do it, you're too small, too slow,too whatever.

Some do!
Some don't!
So what!
Next!!

The solution is in your hands. Or minds.

No disrespect to anyone, you decide.

Terry

Tom Barrister

08-03-2005, 02:22 AM

Here's a true tale about Michael Pizzolla.

I was at a seminar in Vegas in the early 90s. Pizzolla was there, and so was Bob Purdy, and so were few of the other Pirco folks. I believe this was after a lot of the Pirco regulars had a falling out with Doc, but that's not relevant to the story.

During the second day of the seminar, Pizzolla hit about ten straight races. The race would end, and he'd reach into his pocket and come out with a ticket on the winner. Race after race.

Bob Purdy got suspicious of this. He waited till Pizzolla went to the restroom, and then he went up to the clerk. Guess who'd been buying tickets on almost every horse in each race he'd "won"? :D When Pizzolla joined the group for the next race, Bob challenged him to produce a ticket before the next race was run. Pizzolla said he didn't bet it. Purdy challenged him in the future to produce a ticket before a race was run. Pizzolla stopped broadcasting his bets after that.

NoDayJob

08-03-2005, 03:17 AM

Buckeye, I think that you and NoDayJob are basically trolls on this board. Neither of you ever offer anything except brief slams. Anybody that has ever dealt with the folks at PostTime, probably even somebody as hell bent against Pizzolla as Buckeye, would know that their guarantee is legit.

:lol: Perhaps you've only read my posts concerning most software. I've been an ITSdata/Posttime PP user since they started, so I can kid about Mr. Pizzola and his more than flowery sales promotions. The 3 best programs I've tested are Terry Sarnoski's, Matt Thomas's and Revelation Software's. Maybe you'll take the time to read some of my other posts. Yes, the folks at Posttime are more than professional, and they do go out of their way to help their customers. I've been in contact with Doug Manley, the staff and the tech department for many, many moons. :lol:

NDJ [AKA Troll #1]

NoDayJob

08-03-2005, 03:50 AM

John Piesen, hands down

The late Jim Adkinson and "The Ultimate 1".

:D Jim's software engineer, apparently, didn't get paid. He fixed the program so that it wouldn't work. Mickey Rooney bought a copy, found out it didn't work, called Adkinson, who knew squat about programming. He told Rooney to call me to fix it. I won't repeat what Rooney told me when I told him, "It would cost him $1500.00 to fix the bug and I'd need the source code." I don't think Mickey got the program to work or his money back. Jim passed away shortly after that leaving a lot of ill will. :D

NDJ [AKA Troll #1]

TJC

08-03-2005, 04:27 AM

The 3 best programs I've tested are Terry Sarnoski's, Matt Thomas's and Revelation Software's.

NDJ,

What are the names of the software programs by Terry Sarnoski and Matt Thomas? Are they still available?

Thanks,
TJC

Blackgold

08-03-2005, 08:04 AM

As far as I'm concerned, MP and gang can simply skip mailing me any promotional material for any product they sell and simply charge my credit card and send it.

I doubt I'll be sending anything back under their guarantees, but I have (after some big scores) toyed with the idea of sending them a box of Cohibas.

The Judge

08-03-2005, 11:15 AM

I can't wait until 9:00 am west coast time so I can buy "The Professional Handicapper". I love TMM I use it With TMH with both its hard to lose but I manage anyway by overriding the program way too many times, as of late I've stop that or at least I don't do it as often. I would pay $697 for just the 20 hours of tapes that come with the computer program. You good people are so hard to beat at the windows I'll try something new especially if its from someone like Pizzola and Dan. Who was using Pace before the Sartin Group? Who really could explain pace like them or energy distribution? Very few people could now we all can. I want to keep learning and growing $697 isn't cheap but one or two wins that I couldn't get otherwise and I' ll have that money back. TMM paid for itself TMH paid for itself and The Professional Handicapper will pay for itself especially if you guys don't buy it remember with this program we will be on the same horses.

headhawg

08-03-2005, 11:42 AM

The question I would have for The Judge and others who have used previous MP programs sucessfully is this: if the programs you're using now have provided you with profits, why don't you take the 700 bucks that you would have spent on the new program and make bets with it using the old programs? Do you really think that this new program is going to make you more money?

Just asking.

HH
former software junkie

fraggle

08-03-2005, 11:49 AM

Just a note.... I am not connected with post time, I know Dan and Michael yes, but I'm sure there are a lot of guys here that do. I just don't understand the logic in someone slamming a program, ANY program before they have even seen it work, if it sucks Fine, cuss it out and the author. If it's awesome tell people, and get to the bank. Post Time deserves to produce a product it feels good about promoting.

keilan

08-03-2005, 12:41 PM

Who was using Pace before the Sartin Group? Who really could explain pace like them or energy distribution?

I've never used TMH nor TMM but it was my undersatnding that Pizzolla doesn't calulate daily variants. I would be very interested to see any authority on "pace" and "energy distribution" whom uses raw fractions. If you have any evidence to support your opinion I'd love to see it.

Vegas711

08-03-2005, 03:38 PM

I used to be the type who would buy the latest program even though what I currently used worked fine maybe becouse it was like a new toy under the christmas tree.My expeirience is that my results remained pretty much the same.

1991 Howard Sartin, Tom Hambilton, Mike Pizolla, and Dick S. came out with TPR a very simple idea of a program but a program that can hold its own against any of the latest new programs. Dick S. said it best " A program is just a tool
it is how you use it that spells the difference"

14 years later I am still using tpr with 1 minor adjustment my program gives me the ratings for all the horses entire PPs.The KEY is that you need to do the work that is required to use the program to its fullest potential , you need to keep records like what is a good 3rd fraction rating for the track you are playing and what pace will set up for late runners( Melt down point). I also know exactly the conditions my program will not work, i skip these races.

NoDayJob

08-03-2005, 04:07 PM

What are the names of the software programs by Terry Sarnoski and Matt Thomas? Are they still available?

Thanks,
TJC

"Contenders" @ 10718 E. 76th St. Tulsa, OK 74133-2514, 918-254-6840 is the last contact for Terry Sarnoski.

SMERT Software, Inc., 14009 Beechvue Lane, Silver Spring, MD 20906 is the last contact for Matt Thomas. Matt Thomas' program can also be found at Posttime.
http://www.posttimedaily.com/ under software, I believe.

NDJ [AKA Troll #1]

keenang

08-03-2005, 08:57 PM

I ATTENTED A SARTIN SEMINAR IN THE 80'S AT THE OLD MARINA HOTEL (NOW THE MGM) SOME OF THE SPEAKERS WERE TOM B .MIKE P. DICK S. JIM B. BOB PURDY AND A BLACK FELLOW WHOSE NAME I THINK WAS MARION JONES, HE WAS A TURF EXPERT. I WONDER IF HE IS STILL ALIVE. I THOUGHT THE BEST OF THE BUNCH WAS MIKE P, AND TOM B. I BOUGHT ANY THING THESE TWO WERE SELLING. I THINK THEY ARE GOOD FELLOWS AND VERY GOOD CAPPERS. I JUST DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY MIKE HAS TO SELL SO MANY DIFFERENT SOFTWARE PROGRAMS AT SUCH HIGH PRICES. AS FOR HIM BUYING A TICKET ON EVERY HORSE THAT REALLY SURPRISES ME.

JUST MY 2 CENTS GENE

The Judge

08-03-2005, 10:18 PM

headhawg you ask a legitimate question and I will try and give you an answer on how I see things. I could just bet the $700 but then I wouldn't have the product that people who I think have something to share put out. I could also not buy handicapping books and bet that money, I could not fly to Del Mar rent an over priced hotel room for about 5 days, I could not fly to the Breeders Cup wherever its held or to the Arlington Million ,I have never been to Saratoga but I hope to go next year and I love to go to handicapping seminars all this money I could save and bet but to me this is all part of it. I get to do all of this and bet money on horses too. If someone has something and they are willing to share it count me in. What if Tom Brohamer, Beyer, Mitchell, Quinn,et.al published and or produced products and we didn't support them? They would have to stop who Knows what would be lost. Look at a Doctors office or a Lawyer look at the books they have do they make money off them probably not but they need them "one line on something they don't know my be the difference between success and failure. So the whole price of a volume of books costing many hundreds of dollars my be worth only one line of text. I finish this later my computer sometimes cuts off and I lose what I'v typed.

The Judge

08-03-2005, 11:12 PM

I'm not going to write a book nor produce a computer program on handicapping. If it were left to me there would not be a PaceAdvantage Board but I will support those that can and do produce products. I make this statement "eveybody on this board is after more then money from this sport." We are trying to make contact with like people, people who can understand our passion for horse racing and handicapping an activity that most of society looks down on .We have all been at this awhile we know the frauds from those who are legitimate. We can disagree with any number of products but the people that put them out there aren't frauds we know the frauds by name, address and style. I do exspect to make money on this new program by betting races I would normally pass or on horses that I would normally not consider.

Keilan I didn't know I was really offering an opinion but one you already named one pace expert that uses raw fraction "Pizzola" others that I know of are Most of the Sartin teachers and most of all the other pace experts. They may use pars or track records or some fomula base on the raw times but very few make "daliy tracks varients". I'm not against daily varients for those that can make them or have the time to make them or buy them but for me raw times are good enough. I would need them for about 4 or 5 tracks if I were it stick with my programs. Vaients are one of the most disputed areas of handicapping as I'm sure you know. Lock 6 vairent makers in a room and ask them to make a vairent for Santa Anita on a day when it's 85 degrees and not a cloud in the sky and all 6 1/2 f races and tell them to ring when they agree the bell will never ring and you will have 6 skeletons. Throw in a few truf races different distances a little rain a tractor rolling over the track and good luck to you, then you have pace varients not speed varients and don't forget the projected varient well good luck. Do you know anyone that makes a good turf varient? I have never heard anyone who makes varients say they can do it as well on truf as on dirt they just say its the best they can do. Even with this I know there are people that have honed there skills and can make a good varient more power to them for the work they put in they deserve the rewards.

Tom

08-03-2005, 11:37 PM

"Who was using Pace before the Sartin Group?"

Huey Mahl, John Meyer.

The Judge

08-04-2005, 01:26 AM

It shows how few people were using pace then as opposed to now. The Sartin Group brought it to the masses. I didn't say they invented pace. Huey Mahl was always given credit by Howard Sartin.

keilan

08-04-2005, 03:31 AM

Keilan I didn't know I was really offering an opinion but one you already named one pace expert that uses raw fraction "Pizzola" others that I know of are Most of the Sartin teachers and most of all the other pace experts. They may use pars or track records or some fomula base on the raw times but very few make "daliy tracks varients". I'm not against daily varients for those that can make them or have the time to make them or buy them but for me raw times are good enough. I would need them for about 4 or 5 tracks if I were it stick with my programs. Vaients are one of the most disputed areas of handicapping as I'm sure you know. Lock 6 vairent makers in a room and ask them to make a vairent for Santa Anita on a day when it's 85 degrees and not a cloud in the sky and all 6 1/2 f races and tell them to ring when they agree the bell will never ring and you will have 6 skeletons. Throw in a few truf races different distances a little rain a tractor rolling over the track and good luck to you, then you have pace varients not speed varients and don't forget the projected varient well good luck. Do you know anyone that makes a good turf varient? I have never heard anyone who makes varients say they can do it as well on truf as on dirt they just say its the best they can do. Even with this I know there are people that have honed there skills and can make a good varient more power to them for the work they put in they deserve the rewards.

Judge thanks for your time, I do appreciate it --- but since MP doesn’t project times nor does he calculate a daily track variant I would hardy consider him a reputable authority on pace or energy – I have asked you to provide some evidence and you weren’t able to, but that’s okay.

I read MP’s book and don’t recall any mention of energy – this doesn’t come as any surprise because anyone that doesn’t calculate a daily variant isn’t capable of offering an opinion about energy let alone being an authority on the subject.

I’ve been around the game a long time and there aren’t many guys that use/understand energy way I do, but really WTF does it really matter?

Vegas711

08-04-2005, 04:08 AM

Judge thanks for your time, I do appreciate it --- but since MP doesn’t project times nor does he calculate a daily track variant I would hardy consider him a reputable authority on pace or energy – I have asked you to provide some evidence and you weren’t able to, but that’s okay.

I read MP’s book and don’t recall any mention of energy – this doesn’t come as any surprise because anyone that doesn’t calculate a daily variant isn’t capable of offering an opinion about energy let alone being an authority on the subject.

I’ve been around the game a long time and there aren’t many guys that use/understand energy way I do, but really WTF does it really matter?

You have my interest, since this is a board to share ideas , how do you use Energy and the variants.

Becouse we still need to pick the right paceline there is nothing to fear, as Mike Pizzola once said he could shout the winner of the next race and the odds still wouldn't drop.Look forward to your response.

keilan

08-04-2005, 04:17 AM

Here’s a li’l advice –don’t from this day forward ever purchase a program that asks you to pick/choose a single paceline, then handicap /wager. If you care to read some of my thoughts on energy then go into the search function under energy.

Look forward to your response after you have read some of what I have written

NoDayJob

08-04-2005, 05:50 AM

"Who was using Pace before the Sartin Group?"

Huey Mahl, John Meyer.

You forgot Scott Flohr. He wrote a book on handicapping in the '60s. He used pace as far back as the 1940-50's when he and Humphrey Bogart used to go to Hollywood Park together. Scott learned his trade from Tropical Park, old timer, Leonard Docker who was one of the best handicapper's in his day. Some of you are old enough to remember, radio personality, Walter Winchell. He used to give horse tips during his radio broadcasts; most of them came from Leonard AKA "the man in grey", because of his grey hair, suit, shirt, gloves and homburg. I believe Scott has passed away. I used to date one of his daughters, Nancy, but I haven't had any contact with him in years.

NDJ [AKA Troll #1]

The Judge

08-04-2005, 10:25 AM

Keilan seeing as how you make varients tell me this, is it O.K if someone makes a varient and its different from your varient or do they all have to be the same? If they are different whats the point? If they are the same seeing as you know who the pace and energy experts are ,tell me who you know that makes varients that agree with someone else who makes their own varient? So as far as I can tell making a accurate varient is a matter of opinion. I now know that you are a pace and energy expert because you say so and I'll take you at your word. I also know that you make "the varient" but what good does that do me if you aren't selling it and I'm not willing to put in the time to make even "a varient" ? I guess I'll have to stick with those un-experts who are willing to put their reputation, money and time on the line and make something I can see,touch and buy.

Lefty

08-04-2005, 11:41 AM

Terry sarnoski can be contacted at:
http://www.contenderswins.com/

Secretariat

08-04-2005, 12:11 PM

"Who was using Pace before the Sartin Group?"

Huey Mahl, John Meyer.

If you mean feet per second measurements that's probably true, but even Ray Taulbot was using pace prior to that.

Huey's ideas seemed to be the real genesis for the Sartin group.

Bradshaw seemed to really identify the importance of the first fraction, and the match up.

Brohamer the use of Decisions Models and Profiles.

Doc always seemed to focus more on the psychology of betting.

Those four things - Huey's fps breakdowns, Bradshaw's matchup ideas, Brohamer's decision models, and Doc's betting psychology seemed the crux of the Sartin ideas.

I got a lot of the Sartin group, but watched so many horses win that didn't figure. I'd re-review paceline selection, chide myself for not playing the higher odds horses, then chide myself for not playing my lower odds better ranked horses. Then I'd see another ranking that got the winner. It was always easy to post-mortem a race because there were so many rankings and ratings, and early and late model info. I moved away from pace handicapping after awhile for a number of reasons (a) many more people playing pace (b) the easy access to pace figures in the form (C) the abdulia which comes from selecting the "profitable" pace line - notice not the logical paceline. Doc used to say best out of last 3 going back no more than 5 or something like that - can't remember anymore. Often, it looked great, but this was not much differnt than Ainslie's idea to only look at recent good pacelines. Everybody else was using the same lines assuming that horse would be able to duplicate that effort.

I seemed to improve on my own when I simply started to forget pace as the be all and end all, and just looked at winners, and their characteristics. Even Doc used to say the way Bradshaw played the Match Up was the key, but that it ws difficult to teach and no one could do it as good as Jimmy. This is why I liked Doc's stuff in the Sartin group the best. It dealt with the psychology of betting and analyzing your stumbling blocks and reasons for losing. That was the most useful things for me.

The irony is in testing many, many methods is how many end up in such a common range - right near the track take, give or take 5 cents and you've probably got 95% of all methods ever printed.

JimG

08-04-2005, 02:56 PM

I JUST DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY MIKE HAS TO SELL SO MANY DIFFERENT SOFTWARE PROGRAMS AT SUCH HIGH PRICES.

Simple, to make more money from his customers.

AS FOR HIM BUYING A TICKET ON EVERY HORSE THAT REALLY SURPRISES ME.

Why? If he goes 0/10 on a card with a good number of his customers watching, how many will stay customers?? Most will think, if he can't win with it I sure as heck can't. I am not defending this alleged practice, but I sure can understand why.

andicap

08-04-2005, 04:30 PM

At their seminars, when you asked Ron Ambrose -- when he was teamed with Dick Mitchell at Cynthia Publishing -- who he liked in a race BEFORE THE RACE, he would tell you. And he was right -- a lot. I loved his slogan: "Sometimes wrong, but never in doubt."

That was a good team -- Mitchell the fast-talking marketing maven and Ambrose the no-nonsense, gruff, handicapper. (With Gordon Pine and Steve Unite as well.)
I wonder if the company was profitable before Ambrose ran into personal problems.

I remember a New York seminar (actually Long Island) in the early 90s where I heard they lost money because of the costs of renting the room, flying cross-country, etc. (I guess it depended on how many software upgrades they elicited from the seminar) I also recall Mitchell and Ambrose getting heckled (well, challenged) by Eric Langjahr at that seminar.

Wickel

08-04-2005, 05:33 PM

Langhar heckling, Pizzola buying multiple tickets. Boy, I'm starting to wonder about Post Time Solutions. I recently got some disconcerting news about how John Meyer was ripped off by a well-known pace guru. I was railed upon in another forum because there was no absolute proof, but I believe it because it came from an upstanding handicapper who dealt with Meyer a lot. IMHO, Meyer was the No. 1 pace 'capper of his generation, and I'm sure he'd give today's pace guys a run for their money. BTW, whatever happened to Ron Ambrose?

Buckeye

08-04-2005, 06:06 PM

Don't wonder about it, send Mike some of your money.

He'll appreciate it.

Lefty

08-04-2005, 06:58 PM

I'm hurt. I never got the Pizzolla flyer. I can't even find details at his site, but I prob. overlooked it; again...

cato

08-04-2005, 09:51 PM

KEENANG wrote: "I JUST DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY MIKE HAS TO SELL SO MANY DIFFERENT SOFTWARE PROGRAMS AT SUCH HIGH PRICES. AS FOR HIM BUYING A TICKET ON EVERY HORSE THAT REALLY SURPRISES ME."
____

Hmmm, since about 1990 +/-, Mike was involved in devloping TPR with the Sartin guys, but he left that group and had to move on (luckily for us) and then he sold --

1. The Essential Handicapper and its bigger brother, The Master Handicapper (which is still one of the best programs in existence) and then he sold

2. Handicapping Magic and an upgrade called The Master Magician

I may be missing one or two but these are the ones that he put his heart and soul into and it does not seem like he has actually been churning out a bunch of programs here. In fact, people have been begging him to put out another program that is a synthesis of The Master Handicaper and The Master Magician.

Yes, he does charge a good amount of money for his programs. Apparently its a business model that works for him. For me, his program is cheaper than the "free" programs becuase I'm not tied to the monthly unlimited download. Hmm "free" means free + a required monthly download of $125 a month = $1500 a year.

If I "buy" one of Mike's outrageoulsy priced programs at (in this case) $697, I get the program, a bunch of tapes that are the equivalent of attending a great handicapping seminar and then I can still download 25 cards a month for 12 months and still have $250 in my pocket to bet :jump:
And in the 2d year, since I've alreday paid for my program, and I don't have the ridiculous required montly downloads, Pizzolla's program is about $1000 cheaper than the "free" program and so on for every year. So some folks may have to rethink their concept of free and expensive

(having said that I think that he HTR program is a wonderful program and I have all good things to say about Ken Massa)
--------------------

As to the buying a ticket on every race, who knows. Based on what I know about MP, it seems unlikely. In fact it seems preposterous, but who knows what happened at a seminar 15 years ago. Seems like irrelevant gossip.

Interestingly, its the the same story MP tells about Sartin :cool:

And now its off to Emerald Downs

All the best, Cato

Lefty

08-04-2005, 11:02 PM

Sartin used to tell the same story on himself, so no big secret. He said if had a client that was struggling he wanted to bolster that client's confidence and didn't want to take the chance himself of picking a loser in that one race. He was using "psychology"

Lefty

08-04-2005, 11:04 PM

Cato, it's true, you're not tied to monthly dl fee but wish he'd drop the price a little.

cato

08-04-2005, 11:42 PM

Oh you have no argument from me there. On the other hand you do get a 60 day "free" look with none of that crazy re-stocking fee...

(BTW, I have no idea if I'm going to get the program--just some thoughts on that free stuff)

Take care, Cato

Lefty

08-04-2005, 11:50 PM

Just dl'd a file from Pizzolla's site. Strange, nothing there that i could find about the new prgm. In case I was misunderstood, I was speaking of the racefiles price.
And, there's a Best Bet prgm on the site that uses the racefile and it's FREE.

cato

08-05-2005, 12:18 AM

yep those too. $1.50 is about 50 cents more than I want to pay + although I don't want 'em, they have no packages for unlimited downloads but I do understand they have some discount brakes for high volume (but I've never hit them)

all the best, Cato

Bob Harris

08-05-2005, 01:39 PM

Michael's betting has always included several horses. Wagers are staggered in a "Best Case/Worst Case" scenario. For those of you who attended the last seminar, you might remember the 1st race at Belmont (I think) where there was a horse running on dirt after putting up a very good PPF number on the turf last out. Michael had roughly $500.00 into the race spread across the field in different win and exotic positions. The combinations he likes the best get more money bet on them...others take on more of a saver mode at a smaller amount.

The horse coming from the turf ran well but finished second...the amount he had wagered on the winning combination returned roughly $1200 dollars. If one of the combinations that he really liked had come in, he would have been spending several minutes filling out tax forms.

I remember one weekend we were hanging out at the New York-New York racebook when he cleared several thousand dollars using the exact same horses that were on my laptop screen (TMH at the time)...he cashed very frequently (not always at a profit in a few races) and had several big scores that he had to sign for.

Michael has always been up front with his betting and has worn a microphone to the window during the last few seminars so everyone could hear him call out all the combinations. Sorry guys, no secret "dirt" at the windows.

garyoz

08-05-2005, 02:59 PM

Michael had roughly $500.00 into the race spread across the field in different win and exotic positions. The combinations he likes the best get more money bet on them...others take on more of a saver mode at a smaller amount.

The horse coming from the turf ran well but finished second...the amount he had wagered on the winning combination returned roughly $1200 dollars.

Seems to me that 7/5 is nothing to brag about. These hedge bets leave ample opportunity to get ying-yanged.

ryesteve

08-05-2005, 04:09 PM

Seems to me that 7/5 is nothing to brag about.
It's not bad in a situation where your horse loses. It's much worse when there's a 5-1 shot you like, and you wind up spreading around so much that after he wins, somehow your return ends up being only 3-1 (been there, done that :bang: )

NoDayJob

08-05-2005, 04:27 PM

Just buy a ticket on every horse running, that way you NEVER LOSE a race, but your Ol' Bankroll sure as 198920 shrinks.

:D NDJ [AKA Troll #1] :D

John

08-05-2005, 05:49 PM

Andicap, nice writing. I laughed and enjoyed it.

garyoz

08-05-2005, 07:32 PM

Just buy a ticket on every horse running, that way you NEVER LOSE a race,

According to the one of the old Barry Meadow's newsletters wasn't that the Ron Ambrose approach? He was the guy Dick Mitchell was always hyping. Another epic from that Cynthia Publishing crowd.

Seriously though, late odds changes make hedged betting very difficult, especially at a Magna venues where they take the rebate shop action. I think you need a computer program to accomplish sophisticated bet hedging and need to interface directly into the wagering pool.

midnight

08-06-2005, 04:06 AM

Michael has always been up front with his betting and has worn a microphone to the window during the last few seminars so everyone could hear him call out all the combinations. Sorry guys, no secret "dirt" at the windows.

Now I've heard everything.

Anyway, the commercial is getting very old.

First_Place

08-06-2005, 07:36 PM

andicap, et al.,

It's obvious you have disdain for Michael Pizzolla. Fine, that's your prerogative. Continue to laugh and ridicule your (stupid) asses off. The way I look at it, the less people using MP's concepts, software, etc. the better it is for those of us that do. Sure PTS's advertising hype is heavy. So what?? I enjoy it.

These type of negative and non-productive posts is why I hardly ever check in to this messageboard to see what's going on any longer. Great job guys!

Regards,

FP

First_Place

08-06-2005, 07:59 PM

The Judge wrote:

"the whole price of a volume of books costing many hundreds of dollars my be worth only one line of text"

Or even one book. My sentiments exactly!

FP

First_Place

08-06-2005, 08:14 PM

PaceAdvantage

08-07-2005, 03:13 AM

FP,

I don't think Andicap displayed disdain for Michael Pizzolla. I believe he simply displayed disdain for the ad he recently put out. Big difference.

But, I could be wrong...

midnight

08-07-2005, 06:01 AM

NDJ said:

"Some of you are old enough to remember, radio personality, Walter Winchell."

No, not old enough to remember the man but I have heard of him. From what I've read he was a very obnoxious crank. Btw, how many of you know that WW's real name was Izzy Lipshitz?

FP

If that was supposed to be funny, you failed.

Walter Winchell (his real name, except that there was only one "L" in the surname) was a vain man who believed he could change the world. He was also a power tripper. The last led to his rise to power as the most influential and powerful journalist in the world, and also led to his downfall through abusing same. Oddly, he mellowed in the last decade of his life.

P.S.: If your other 240 posts are anything like the three I just saw, you probably won't be missed by many.

Trysharder

08-07-2005, 11:06 AM

Right off I will say I have no use for Pizzola and his programs. I bought TMH for around a $1000 many years ago and it used BRIS files. Then Mike contacted me and said he had a teriffic upgrade that would make it invincible. You had to return your disk to get it upgraded. I did, and what I got back was the identical program but now you had to use his downloads at a higher price. Program still wasn't worth the price of a blank disk. Threw it away long ago.

Buckeye

08-07-2005, 12:09 PM

Trysharder,

TMH

Absolutely a very similar thing happened to me! All I wanted was an updated set of pars, and any pars for the new tracks. JW said no problem, send it back and for free :cool: we'll send you one that make's it's own pars, "Pin Point Adjustment" he called it.

Didn't make pars, didn't have new updated pars, didn't download BRIS files anymore.

(a) more expensive files,
(b) the same problem with pars I had before

Buckeye

08-07-2005, 12:25 PM

Didn't make pars, didn't have new or updated pars, and didn't download BRIS files anymore.

(a) Required more expensive ITS files that by themselves would not produce a pastperformance report either, that would cost another $1.50 per track. For $3 I could have the same thing I was paying $1 for before.
(b) the problem with pars was not addressed. For those of you familiar with the program, they were complex, and although I tried to make them up myself (especially for the new tracks that had none), I was unable to get something that would work well.

Vegas711

08-07-2005, 01:17 PM

I bought TMH it was an OK program. Basically it was TPR with an odds line.The advantage was that you could see all the TPR lines for a horses last 10 races.

The Odds line approach i gave up on after less than 1 year, it did not work, playing your 2nd or 3rd choice becouse they offered value led to long and I mean long losing streaks. I am with Howard Sartin when it comes to betting, he used to say at his seminars " why would you want to bet on a horse that is going to lose just becouse it offers value? . Value is cashing your tickets.

If you look at ANY programers software , you will see that all future programs are partial clones of the original.It is a difficult thing to completely reinvent yourself and come up with a completely different software.Lets face it there are only so many ways that you can rehash the fractional times.

I would BET anyone that THEY could pick as many winners or make as much money using the old very simple TPR program than a program with all the bells and whistles selling for $ 1000. Try it you may be surprised.

Buckeye

08-07-2005, 01:31 PM

TEH did the same thing Vegas, the advantage being the pars were based on the DRF 3-year-best final times, which are "common knowledge" and not proprietary as were the pars for TMH. Also, TMH had the "Expert Selector" paceline formula which I could recite in my sleep. :)

I also gave HM a shot at around $160 because "why not?" I'm game, but even to this day, it's beyond me what that program actually does.

Needless to say, I didn't go for the $500 "upgrade" to "The Master Magician" since presumably, I already owned the keys to the mint!

Seriously, TEH was the best program he ever put out and it was his first so I agree with you.

Vegas711

08-07-2005, 03:55 PM

Years ago when i purchased programs I used to crack their codes, all the sartin programs i found out their alg rythems so that I could duplicate their programs, my main reason was that I thought if I knew how they came up with their ratings it would help me. It didn't make any difference. What I did find out was that they were not as complicated as what i believed they would be, no advanced math just very very simple algebra.1 year of algebra and the printouts with 3 or more horses exiting the same race you can crack almost any horse racing software code.

Vegas711

08-07-2005, 04:10 PM

Horse racing is really not that complicated in a nutshell it comes down to 1 word
ADVANTAGES. What i get from my version of TPR ( 2 columns.. 1 for early rating and 1 for a late rating) is a look at all 10 pacelines for each horse. The first thing i do is to look at the last week or 2 and see how the track is playing concerning my ratings. If the track is favoring my late ratings ( unless there is a lone speed ) i scan my late column for each horse for its entire 10 races , if I see an advantage and it is a fair price I bet it. If it is too low I pass the race. If the track is favoring my early ratings i then ignore the late column and focus my attention strictly on the EArly column.If the price is favorable I bet the horse with the EARLY ADVANTAGE, if price is poor i pass the race.

Either a horse will have a early or a late advantage , 20 % of the time the winner will be a horse with no advantages these are just non contenders that happened to win, so what that is life.

If a race has any horse who do not have atleast 3 starts or more than 2 layoffs etc. i pass the race.Simplicity has its perks.

keenang

08-09-2005, 10:18 AM

CATO

I BOUGHT " HANDICAPPING MAGIC BOOK AND SOFTWARE AND THEN IN A MONTH OR SO I GET A LETTER TELLING ME THAT IT IS OLD AND I SHOULD GET THE MASTER MAGICAN. YOU DID FORGET A FEW OTHER PROGRAMS BUT THAT IS BESIDE THE POINT. IF YOU THINK THE PROGRAM IS WORTH THE PRICE GOD BLESS YOU.
GENE

AQUEBUCKS

08-09-2005, 11:17 AM

Just thought I'd add to this lengthy discussion about MP's marketing practices. I too received an invite to his and Dan's new software initiative. I wasn't overly impressed with the literature, but who knows what they have here. You can't blame the guy for trying to sell new stuff. There are numerous software vendors out there-Some have good stuff, some don't. I'm a sheets player, use DRF for soft focus and also use some good trainer stats for most of my capping. I own TMM, and use on occasion because of its propensity to produce LARGE mutuels. Case in point-This past Saturday at Saratoga. Used TMM along with the sheets and DRF. Anyone familiar with TMM can look at the card and view the VTR's (VALUE TECH RATIO's) for the Saratoga LATE P-4. I was in for a $36 base bet (X10). The The pick-4 came back $5,500 for $2 - Had you used just the 2 VTR horses for each leg it would have cost you $16 (base bet). My point being-TMM is not a "black box" nor is it the best program out there, however, It does have its "MAGIC" moments. Anybody remember Musique Tujors in the Sunshine Millions? Just giving credit where credit is due. MP, I hope you're out there somewhere reading this lengthy thread.

Aquebucks

cato

08-09-2005, 11:56 PM

This, I swear, unless I take it back :D is my last post on this thread.

Its proof positive why developers have a tough game out there.

First, in a post that no one responded to (probably becuase it was so obvious), I pointed out that for many of us folks who do not have a heavy downloading requirement the programs that charge for the software can actually be less expensive in terms of $ out of pocket than "free" software. Let's be clear folks, the free software is just another businesss model, no better and no worse than people who charge for the software. The developers are in a business and trying to make money (and I'm glad they are, its helped this game stay interesting).
So generally if its free people tend to complain about the required costs of downloading. If you charge for the softare and people download as neeeded, then people are p****ed that you charged.

Now the program is out there in people's hands and you as a devloper spend time and money and offer people an upgrade. Boom! Some people are mad because they feel like there's been some kind of bait and switch, although to be sure, no one is forcing those people to buy the upgrade and boom! another group of people is thrilled that the program they have come to know and love has been improved.

In Mr. Pizzolla's case, people have indicated they were upset that they bought HM and then shortly after that an upgrade came out (even though no requirement to buy the upgrade). On the other hand some people are upset because Pizzolla did not ugrade HM to TMM to the next level and that he did not upgrade TMH enough (okay ever).

Those of us who loved TMH have it on our annual checklist--"bug Pizzolla to upgarde TMH."

Many people have complained that TMH was never upgraded with new pars. First, it did not use pars but used a track performance number or some such thing--one number at the 2d call and one number for the final time that was something of an average for each distance at the track. I thought this was a huge improvement over pars and the silliiness of struggling over the minutia over whether one class was off by a .1 of a second etc. and trying to make dozens of adjustments (if not hundreds) for any given race)

And secondly, they did come out with a second set of numbers after awhile (or maybe the program came with 2 sets ? I dunno--a long time ago). In any event you had a choice. And then if you really wanted to keep it current all you had to do was get some good par times, do some averaging and in an evening you would have a new set of track performace numbers. voila

Personally if I buy into a program I want upgrades and improvements relatively often--otherwise it gets stale. My complaint is a contrarian one--Pizzolla does not upgrade enough! :cool:

And all of this is proof positive why CJ is the only developer that has been able to walk the tightrope successfully--but that's because he is, so far and inexplicably, not trying to make money off of the sales of his prorgram or the downloads. He charges a reasonable fee (actually too low) for the program and upgardes (at least for awhile) and with no downloading requirement.

Way to go CJ!! (although, really, CJ, no one will...I mean should ...begrudge you if you change your model and make a little bit of money on this stuff).

Take care and good night Gracie,

Cato

andicap

08-10-2005, 01:53 AM

FP,

I don't think Andicap displayed disdain for Michael Pizzolla. I believe he simply displayed disdain for the ad he recently put out. Big difference.

But, I could be wrong...

Bingo

Light

08-10-2005, 11:44 AM

andicap

08-10-2005, 01:21 PM

Allthough I only partially agree with Pizzolla's theories,(and therefore have not and will not buy his software),he has the free enterprise to market his new and improved products anyway he wants and if it has a sleezy hue to it,that's his problem not yours. If I used his previous software and was satisfied,I would upgrade regardless of any sleezy marketing if it made me $.That's the bottom line. If I wasn't satisfisfied with his previous product(s),I would not upgrade because he would allready have proven to me that his foundational theories are worthless to build any upgrades on.

So you think anyone marketing a product of any sort should be allowed to say anything at all -- no matter how truthful it is -- because it's totally up to the consumer to evaluate the information he receives. Even though no consumer has the time or resources to investigate and research every purchse he makes to the extent he feels 100% comfortable in the verocity of the marketing message.

So, for example under your thinking, I could go on TV and say if I buy ketchup it will cure baldness. Or drinking Yoo-hoo will cure acne. After all you don't have to believe him. I mean who would believe those claims.

That's just dangerous. You can't let people go around and advertising whatever they want. that' what the FTC is for. (Now if youre a super libertarian who does not believe the FTC should even exist then this argument is over -- we have no common ground at all and should just agree to disagree.)

So marketing a program that promises to make you thousands of dollars practically right out of the box is not unlike going on TV and saying soda pop will cure the flu. They are both just "claims."

Now if you can document to me how a "reasonable" person -- someone with some skill in handicapping, not a novice -- has won with the program within 60 days of its usage (as in the guarantee) without having to put in 1,000 hours of studying the program, tweaking it, etc., then I would retract my attack. After all there is nothing in the flyer that says you will win IF you put in the time learning the program. It just says you will win using the program.
That's misleading and really could be construed as lying.

And as we teach our kids, lying is bad.

John

08-10-2005, 03:58 PM

Andi, How True...... anyone that lies will steal too.

The Judge

08-10-2005, 05:05 PM

Buckeye

08-10-2005, 05:19 PM

Very secretly. :eek:

I'm one of his best customers.

andicap

08-10-2005, 07:55 PM

This will be my last post about this thread I hope but how did you who downed the hype, the product or Pizzola find out about it? I re-read the promotion a couple of more times and it said as part of the deal was that Pizzolla could offer The Professional Handicapper first to, "my most serious students" now I know why I got the hyped pro-mo I'm one of his serious students but why did you others get it and so soon? Haven't been to any of those wasteful seminars have you, what about buying products in secret?

I believe that was in my initial post (although it was so long I could see how you overlooked it) that I thought it was funny that Pizzolla wrote that he only sent this out to his most "serious" students and the only thing I ever bought from him was the book.
Clearly, this offer is NOT just for his "serious" students. He basically emptied out the mailing list.
Another thing that undermines the offer's credibility. Clearly this offer is much more widespread than he plainly says. I wouldn't call it a "lie," since you could interpret "serious" quite loosely. But I never in a million years would consider myself one of his students.

Lefty

08-10-2005, 08:03 PM

guess i'm not serious enough. I bght TEH long time ago and now i dl files once and again, but didn't get the offer for new stuff.

jk3521

08-10-2005, 09:39 PM

The last item I bought from the guy was his book five years ago. I also was an ITS past performance downloader in 1998. So seriously, I haven't been one of his best customers.

Maxspa

08-10-2005, 11:15 PM

All
I purchased "The Essential Handicapper", "The Master Handicapper", attended two seminars in Las Vegas which were well organized, informative and did not include any of the aforementioned questionable Winning Tickets. From time to time I would email Michael and ask when TMH would be upgraded. It was always in the planning stage but never came to fruition. Then Handicapping Magic was developed and produced. I did not purchase Handicapping Magic but was involved with testing of the program. At that time Michael mentioned that he still used TMH for some intricate handicapping decisions.
Considering the above, I wasn't in the good customer category either. Frankly, I'm disappointed and sent PostTime my new address in case they needed the change. I haven't received a reply nor have I received any mail from them.
Unlike some of the comments on this thread, I have the utmost respect for Michael Pizzola as a handicapper, teacher and as a person. I would give TMH high marks if some changes like adding trainer stats, and more sophisticated numbers were included. Michael's comments about the numbers was that "They were good enough". As good a handicapper that he is, they are good enough for Michael. However, for some of the rest of us maybe we need all the help we can get!
In closing, IMHO, there's a huge difference between highly advertised, quality software created by established handicappers. Often they include both tape and live seminars for teaching purposes. Then there are those that are highly advertised, developed by unknown persons with few credentials and are suspect. We as consumers have to make the correct decision.
Maxspa

Light

08-10-2005, 11:48 PM

So you think anyone marketing a product of any sort should be allowed to say anything at all -- no matter how truthful it is -- because it's totally up to the consumer to evaluate the information he receives.

Uh. Andicap. No disrespect to you,but are you naive enough to believe that most commercial advertisements are true and factual? How about the tobacco industry?They sold an addictive product that would kill you in the end.Lied about it for years. Our society condones,even rewards lying in every facet of advertising,politics,entertainment,social interaction,you name it.You're cool if you lie and a squarebear if you tell the truth.If Pizzolla's add is a cheap marketing ploy as you insinuate,it is par for the course in today's society. At least he hasn't killed anyone doing it like the tobacco industry did. Sorry,but you cant point your finger at Pizzolla without putting him in perspective.

keilan

08-11-2005, 12:30 AM

That's weak

Light

08-11-2005, 12:34 AM

keilan

Sorry to dissapoint you.

andicap

08-11-2005, 05:20 AM

The tobacco industry is now paying a pretty hefty price for lying all those years in the way of billions of dollars of reparations to states and possibly to families depending on how the civil suits go.

I agree that most marketing verges on lying. I happen to believe the laws regulating advertising are not strong enough. For example the outrageous claims that herbal food/medicine companies can make. But there are still limits on what you can say in ads. you can not say a food is "fat-free" if it is not. Similarly you should not be able to say a piece of software will make you thousands of dollars if it may not. (Pizzolla's supports ask: How do you know it won't make you a ton of money? Well, it might if you know how to use the angles. But every single hyperbolic software ad I have seen is ALWAYS followed post-purchase with an admonition from the vendor that "you have to work at the program. It's not a black box. You have to put in thousands of hours of study. But I did not see any of those admonitions in my brochure.)

And if it WILL, I expect to see a bumper crop of rich handicappers in the next year who will eagerly take advantage of the generous offer from Mr. Pizzolla and Mr. Serra to start winning at the races in minutes for the princely sum of $700 (but only if you act now! -- wait and its several hundred dollars more)

The money-back guaranteed offer is the saving grace here. Order it, try it and you can get your cash back.

I contrast Pizzolla's approach with that of Dave Schwartz or Ken Massa, who make no outlandish promises, no get-rich-quick appeals, no over-the-top brochures that offer vain hope for those who have been losing for years.

Bottom line: Government regulations a la the FTC are there to help the most naive among us. Everyone laughs when someone bilks an old lady out of her savings with some confidence scheme, but shold we let the con artist go free because "she should have known better?"

(Note; I am NOT calling Pizzolla a "con artist." His brochures just read like one.)

Blackgold

08-11-2005, 07:00 AM

I remember when I got the mailer about the original Handicapping Magic program in early '02.

It gave some examples of some monster scores, like huge exactas, IRS signing tris and the taking down of whole superfecta pools.

I went on to accompolish all of the above.

midnight

08-11-2005, 12:24 PM

Light

08-11-2005, 01:53 PM

Andicap

I agree with your last post. But what I don't understand from you is your reaction to Pizzolla's add. Very predictable for me: A) he wrote a book and created software. You don't write books or create software unless you plan to make money off them. B) he's a businessman. Horseracing is a business like any other business and marketed with similar halftruths and promises of living happily ever after as any other business. C) His pp's shows he's superceded his own products in the past with "the new and improved" look.

Finally,I haven't seen a case yet of a system seller being taken to court for much more outlandish claims than Pizzolla's. In fact some advertise on this site! Until action is taken like was taken against the tobbacco industry,system sellers will continue to thrive and it will continue to be Buyer Beware for the horseplaying consumer. Those adds can be fun to read. But I wouldn't get bent over one.

Blackgold

08-11-2005, 08:06 PM

I use HM to uncover potential price plays in much faster time that I could ever do without a computer and the software and the concepts of the Fulcrum, PPF, etc.

I use my handicapping ability to take that potential price play and cash big, if the runner(s) runs to it's numbers.

Doesn't always happen, but if you want to beat the track take, much less make money, you gotta have price.

You get price by using some out of the box thinking, like a turf line for a dirt race today. . . a runner (with numbers) going up in class. . . a runner from TUP (with numbers) that is dead on the board at DMR, etc., etc., etc.

One thing I think everyone will agree with Pizzolla when he says. . ."watching and wagering on horse that pays $4.20 is like watching paint dry."

midnight

08-12-2005, 03:10 AM

Then what you're saying is that the program is an aid to your own handicapping.

Nothing wrong with that. I know a lot of guys who make money with programs or information (e.g. Thorograph, Valueline, etc.) I wouldn't be able to do any good with. It works for them, and that's what it's all about.

My point is that this newest program (and probably almost every other program ever made) is probably not something that can be used "out of the box" (especially by somebody who's never used it before) to start making money.

Blackgold

08-12-2005, 07:53 AM

No, anyone looking for a black box will continue to throw their money down a black hole because they will refuse to evolve as a player.

The black box buyers, of which there are many, are a coveted list by all system sellers.

However, when I first got HM years ago, I immediately hit a long shot in the San Juan Cap by using my limited understanding at the time, that PPF ratings were powerful stuff on the turf.

What I like most about Pizzolla's methods is- a few simple numbers that point to huge overlays and a quick and easy way to scan a nation of cards to pick those juicy spots to head to the window with both fists.

I'm certain when I get the most recent software, tapes, etc., that are due to arrive some time next week, I will take my game to another level- by having the confidence to get involved in races with lots of firsters on the turf, lots of firsters on a wet surface. This will give me an added edge in those races which one especially needs when doing the serial bets.

Often I'll scan the results charts and look at races and cards I passed and it's amazing how many times HM points to big mutuel opportunities- that I miss. I miss them because like any player, I get in the way of profits.

Moral of the story is- you HAVE TO keep evolving or the public will take all your money while you are standing still.

Since I've made so many "quantuam leaps" with Pizzolla's stuff, I'll eagerly order whatever they come up with.

Vegas711

08-12-2005, 07:04 PM

Niko

08-15-2005, 04:37 PM

Maxspa

08-15-2005, 11:24 PM

All,
After requesting the material from Post Time Solutions, Inc. I received the 16 page(including order form and letter from Michael Pizzola) advertising presentation in the mail today!
My reaction to the lengthy brochure was that Michael Pizzola has supported Dan Serra's work much like Dick Schmidt has likewise done for Bob Purdy with Synergism and Dave Schwartz with HSH. For example Dick helped Bob with Bulletin Board support in lending his expertise answering questions on the Forum. I can remember Dick contributed on the HSH board discussing and giving his opinions on ways the multifaceted HSH could be utilized.
I'm not surprised by the use of tapes, Encyclopedia notebook, bonus software etc. as this is a typical marketing technique used in the past. However, I was surprised by the price which is $697 now but will be $997 later. Obviously this software has Michael's endorsement and must be in his opinion a quality product. Thus the high package price.
As someone mentioned earlier in this thread there is a 60 day money back no questions asked guarantee and that is certainly a plus! Will it help any of us improve our handicapping skills or can we incorporate Dan's findings into our own handicapping approach? We have 60 days to find out!
Maxspa

JackS

08-16-2005, 02:19 AM

Niko- Not an easy answer to which line to use. The best and most predictable line is probably the last race but, unfortunatly, it's way too obvious ,therefore holds little value much of the time. In a truly competitive race though, suprisingly the last line might be the key to the race. For many reasons and in particular percieved class(by the public) might trump this line that you would dearly love to play and lo and behold the odds are actually there.
This situation although relativly rare usually occurs when a high priced claimer moves up into the NW's 1 or 2 or an CL Alw moves into a minor Stks.
Don't go looking for them, just stay aware. You'll recognize them the next time you see them. Knowledge of trainer moves can help here also.
In the majority of races I play, I try to make some type of judgment of current form even tho the last race was not particularly great if the horse seems to be in reasonable form, I'll look at some of his better races no matter how far back they may have been.
Prefer to use the last 3-4 lines but don't toss the horse until you;ve looked at all ten lines.

John

08-16-2005, 09:57 AM

I use CJ's paceline figurse. I look at the last 3 figurse if one of those figures fit todys races that is the pace line I will use.

John

08-16-2005, 12:40 PM

MaxSpa, Thanks for your interpretation of the flier. I tossed my flier in the trash. I personally think it is B.S. Just another software to make a buck.Did not take Mike Pizzolla long to come up with a new partner.Ever since Langjahr's Daughter posted about MP. I am a little superstitious.

Vegas711

08-16-2005, 03:23 PM

Vegas,

When you look at your model what race (paceline) do you put most of your emphasis on? or is each race different-no set of rules. I've gone back and forth between using the last 4 or last 6, some say last 3 similar? Does it matter if they show anything last race to you? Always like to ask someone who's doing it succesfully (if you don't mind sharing)

The program I use shows the ratings for all pacelines. I find it of greater use to scan a horses last 10 pacelines than focus on 1 paceline. This gives me a visual picture of not only a horses form but also its potential. First based upon the way a track is playing in the # of beaten lenghts at the first call i will either focus on my early or my late rating column.For instance at the time being Retama turf has been playing very early so i focus almost entiely on my early ratings. The first thing i circle is the highest ratingfor each horse even if its the 8th paceline, this is the horses potential i next look at more recent race ratings to see where the horse is now. I then compare them in my head where i get a feel for who may have the advantage today.

Tom Barrister

08-16-2005, 06:01 PM

laff

08-16-2005, 06:23 PM

I have to agree with Tom Barrister. Time will tell. I received his flyer. I read it. It seems like a lot of people on this thread think Pizzola is after the quick buck. Who knows. I do know that everyone is free to toss it in the trash if they don't like what they read. He isn't forcing you to read the flyer, or buy his product. I don't understand the big deal. I get "offer" every day in the mail for various things. I can read the stuff, or I can choose not too. I do notice that he has a 60 day money back guarantee. So, if you're curious, buy it, try it, and if you make enough money in 60 days to pay for it, then keep it. If it's no good, send it back and get your money back. Seems fair enough to me.

sevenall

08-16-2005, 11:39 PM

I was also sent the literature. I read it, and to me it looks like yet another reinvention of the wheel. The same candy bar in a new wrapper. Time will tell. I will be interested in the opinions of anybody who's bought TEH, TMH, or HM and also buys this.

I don't know Tom...I own TMH, HM & Tmm and the new program's output (based on the flyer information) doesn't look anything like the previous programs. This appears to be a trainer manevuer based methodology...which MP has typically avoided.

Do you have experience with MP's programs...so you can make the comparison?

Tom Barrister

08-17-2005, 03:11 AM

I don't know Tom...I own TMH, HM & Tmm and the new program's output (based on the flyer information) doesn't look anything like the previous programs. This appears to be a trainer manevuer based methodology...which MP has typically avoided.

Do you have experience with MP's programs...so you can make the comparison?

I do, and I also have experience with most of PIRCO's programs up to the early 90's. They all claimed to be new, and most were the same laundry soap in a "ultra, new and improved" box. If Danny Serra is involved more than just attaching his name, there's something to do with trainers and sires, as you suggest. Pizzolla's programs have all had a new toy or two. That doesn't mean that the basic nuts and bolts are any different or better, and it doesn't mean that they aren't. That's why I'll be interested in the opinion of anybody who buys this.

Maxspa

08-17-2005, 08:49 AM

Tom and Sevenall,
In my opinion this is not Michael Pizzolas's program. It is Dan Serra's life's work with input and support from Michael P. The brochure states " I've never recommended a handicapping product to you that wasn't based on my ideas because frankly , I never found one I could whole heartedly endorse, until now." This is a direct quote from Michael's letter included in the advertising packet.
Maxspa

Blackgold

08-21-2005, 09:00 AM

I got the software and tapes on Mon.

Quickly read thru the manual, took the rest of the week to listen to the tapes and started using the software Wed. evening.

That nite I came close, but not close enough, to hitting monster payoffs at EVD in a Mdcl event by throwing out the fav. Had the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th runners (in other words, woulda, coulda, shoulda hit the exacta, tri and super) but not the winner who in his previous 2 starts didn't even leave the gate and they took the blinkers off today (guess the runner couldn't see at all in the previous 2 starts). That runner paid somebody over $150 for $2 and spoiled my otherwise large score.

The premise of the whole new deal from MP and gang is based on professional player, Dan Serra, who does the excellent off track and turf numbers for Post Time Dailey. It was those numbers that pointed me to the winner in yesterday's Alabama, although it paid only $9.60 or so, I guess that was good for a Bailey/Mott runner.

Anyway, you get quick access to the turf and off track numbers and quick access to the Reversal Protocol. Did anyone notice that the winner of the WV Derby last Sun. was reversing against the odds-on Fav and paid double digits for an Assmussen entry?

But that is just part of the story. Dan Serra has been making his living for over 40 years betting the ponies. He has distilled a handfull of spot plays (angles if you want to call them or Professional Super Plays and Dynamic Plus Factors, which is what the program calls them),with numerous rules that the software does for you, that have stood the test of time and provided a nice living for him. Not only that, his action was finally limited and even refused at the Vegas sports books before they became pari-mutuel.

Just listening to these two Pros speak over an 18 tape series is worth every penny I sent them.

MP freely admits that often he doesn't know who is riding or training a runner since his approach is by the numbers, yet it is fascinating to hear Dan talk about trainers and jockeys, running patterns, etc and MP guides the training tapes is his usual informative, organized, educational and entertaining manner.

I have got some mid priced winners, I would have not bet otherwise, since I got the program.

And I'm confident a "signer" will erupt soon and when it does I'll be back on this board to tell ya about it.

Good luck.

John

08-21-2005, 09:10 AM

Blackgold, I wish you much success. Keep us enformed....

Maxspa

08-21-2005, 10:40 AM

Blackgold,
Thank you for taking the time to share your experience with the new program. I just signed up for Dan's Sire Ratings to try and get a handle on their effectiveness. I will be interested in your continued responses regarding the new program.
Maxspa

midnight

08-21-2005, 01:46 PM

I might contact MP and co. to see if I can buy the tapes. I'm not interested in the program, but I am interested in hearing what Dan Serra has to say.

Niko

08-22-2005, 03:43 PM

I bought the package and received it Saturday. It's good IF; you don't mind having a program that's 50-90% black box and IF it works. The program is based mostly on old angles that have been refined for profitibility.
The key for me is: can I use it to make money?? and, in a way that the prices don't get hammered by everyone else using it? If I knew some more details that I could adapt to my own style it would be worth more. I'm not fond of black box programs.

Like to see a few other people test it and compare results. Particularily interested in anyone who uses ITS that has a lot of old cards they can check.

Not sure if I'll keep it or not until I can test it. Based on the first 1/2 of tapes and the encyclopedia it's not worth it so far. Tapes go; here's the old angle I've perfected to work....can't tell you about the details...I'll try to share a good story or two....let's go over some good paying black box examples.

Not completely worthless but not worth $700 up to this point. Again the question remains....can I make money with it. One or two bets is all it takes.

Plus I still have to find time to listen to the second 1/2 of the tapes but that might not be for another week or two.

Anyone else on their opinion?

Jeep

08-23-2005, 12:05 PM

andicap

08-23-2005, 12:11 PM

OK, having knocked the newsletter (NOT THE PRODUCT, JUST THE PUBLiCITY), I have to say if the results printed here hold up,(a big if) why wouldn't you stay with it? Hell, I'd be shelling out the money and be the first to apologize to anyone and everyone involved.

If it's giving you longshot winners and consistent low-priced horses, why would you drop it? In fact if the results are that good why would it "complement" your own handicapping? If I'm picking $122 horses I'm changing my handicapping real fast -- as in, no handicapping, just using the program.
Of course its very early and these results are likely not to hold up. But the question still stands.

Donnie

08-23-2005, 12:46 PM

Interesting dialog....
from the previous page a quote from Blackgold:

No, anyone looking for a black box will continue to throw their money down a black hole because they will refuse to evolve as a player.

The black box buyers, of which there are many, are a coveted list by all system sellers.

Then a review of the new MP program by Niko:

I bought the package and received it Saturday. It's good IF; you don't mind having a program that's 50-90% black box and IF it works. The program is based mostly on old angles that have been refined for profitibility.

Interesting that 3-4 horses per race on a printout may suffice for some. My question: how many here blindly follow their own program's printouts without any further interpretation? Here are my top 4 from each race from my db for SAR yesterday:

R1- 8,7,2,5
R2- 1A,7,2,6
R3- 3,6,2,4
R4- 11,1A,1,2
R5- 5,6,1,1A
R6- 4,2,1,11
R7- 2,4,5,6
R8- 7,5,3,2
R9- 10,1A,1,6

Would anyone consider these results worthy of selling? Tagged winners at $16, $3, $15, $3, & $11. Flat bet is a total bust. Some races would be unplayable in my standards (too many FTS's).

And also if you want to include horses I have tagged as "double longshots" (think of them as Dynamic Plus Horses or Professional Super Plays), then you would have had the $33 horse in the 5th AND the $25 horse in the 8th!!

If anyone would like a copy of this particular day, let me know...I will email you the "proof". I will post SAR's picks and "Dynamic Plus Horses" tomorrow BEFORE the races....hey...it's as good as any black box out there! :jump:

Vegas711

08-23-2005, 03:29 PM

Got my stuff Saturday also. I printed the Executive Summary for Sun at EMD. In the 5th it listed 4 horses and No Giveway won and paid $122, in the 8th it listed 4 horses and Stately Jack Flash won and paid $18, in the 9th it listed 3 horses and Cowboy Cruiser won and paid $11.80 and in the 10th only Brite Luci was listed and it won paying $3.80. On Monday I printed out Dmr, it had 3 short priced winners listed. I'm going to look over the stuff before making any judgements but my initial thought was that it might complement my own handicapping, but have no opinion as I haven't gotten into it yet.
Jeep

Good post, Keep us informed.

I liked Mike Pizzollas earlier work though. I hope that this latest program is not the direction that he is going to go. Most of his customers I would think are Pace players like myself who are former Sartin Players what we would like to see are future advancements in Pace numbers. I am afraid that this latest program will just delay if not put an end to new ideas in pace numbers etc.

The Judge

08-23-2005, 06:15 PM

I'm still listening to the tapes ,the $122.00 horse got my attention so I down loaded the race. It was the $250,000 Longacres Mile I was shocked the horse No Give Away was 9 races 5 wins 3 seconds and 0 thirds mostly spints at EDowns at a lower class. The track was listed as fast and the weather was clear so two of the horses with rating didn't apply they were only for "off track" so the only horses with ratings were the 8 Turban (lone speed)and the $122.00 winner small letter "majBradley" both at long odds. Turban ran up the track didn't get the lead they tried to rate him.

Donnie

08-24-2005, 07:43 AM

A quick question for those of you with the program....

How many different ways is a horse (or are horses) listed in the printouts? So far I think it sounds like 3...the Professional Picks, your standard picks, and it sounds as if there is an off-track horse picker.

I like $122 horses. They really show what a program is made of. You could reason that there was gonna be a pace meltdown with all the early speed, and No Give Way, being the dominant closer of the group, may pick 'em up down the lane. Or, then again, you could just say that both No Give Way and Turban had two of the not only top win %'s, but in the money %'s as well (and of course two of the top win %'s at EMD alone). It appears this could be called "heart". But it would be too easy for a $900 program to throw them up based on race record alone. Why exactly did the program pick those two? Does the program come with an explanation of how the numbers are derived? Also, were either of the other 2 $100 horses at EVD this past week uncovered by the program? Blackgold mentions a $150 horse, but I think in his excitement over the program, he misread that it was $115 for the winner.

If you are not a speed figure type and if you don't believe in class, then No Give Way was a logical contender at EMD. He was a monster overlay. Period. The Q5 = 4 kinda told a pace analyst a speed duel may develop. Is this what MP means by Reversal Protocol? After all, he was ranked LP as #1 by HTR.

Sometimes you just need to let the smoke disapate and look behind some of those mirrors. I will return in just a few to post my Little Black Box picks for today's SAR card (as promised yesterday). If we score well today I may have to start working on my flyer!

ponypro

08-24-2005, 08:40 AM

I received Michael's new program in the mail last Saturday afternoon. Ill explain later why I bought it. It was a large box with over 20 hours of tapes and several work books and software. I got the software installed and got thru the quickstart manual in time for the Alabama at Saratoga. By chance it was the only race of the day with a Dan Serra "PURE PLAY". Sweet Symphony won for fun. So much for you naysayers. Now as to why I bought it. I have been playing the ponies for over 40 years and I have made it habit to be open minded to others. I was one of the very first ITS customers and one of Youbet.coms first customers. I found the ITS form to have several powerful features. I have looked closely at both sheets systems. I just couldnt get past the fact they dont consider pace very strongly. I think CJ has a dynamite approach. Anyway I became interested in Michael's handicapping magic stuff. The book is the best book I think ever written about handicapping. But Michael operates at "genious level" Its very hard stuff for the average player and thats why I think people dismiss him. There is an old saying
People dont value what they dont understand
And people dont buy what they dont value
I think that applys here. Anyway the only thing I took away from Michael's work was the PPF power fraction. The rest I wasnt smart enough to absorb or couldnt fit it into my work. The result ,I had a stack of 1099's last year a foot deep at tax time. It works for me, So I didnt hesitate to buy this package. I was actually glad that most wouldnt buy it. Its really not a system. Its Dan Serra sharing some methods he uses that produces occasional "super plays". I have reviewed them all and they are all very very solid based on a liftetime of research. Michael is a great teacher, Ive only skimmed the surface of this material. Its not the "Bet this Horse" that everyone is looking for. Michael is wired differently than that. What he has produced are some of the most time saving and powerful tools on the planet. You still have to make you own selections and place your own bets Sorry! PS. I have no relation whatsoever to ITS, Postimedaily or Michael Pizzola.
Thanks
Pony Pro

Blackgold

08-24-2005, 09:00 AM

MP said something like that on the tapes. This program is yet, another tool, to compliment the pace approach MP has utilized for decades.

Just last nite I got the $33 winner in the 7th at the Mountain.

The Pro Super Play was the 2, the Fulcrum was the 5 and the 10 had the gapped PPF number and running style for last nites heavy pressure race. The 10 also had a Dynamic Plus factor under the new program.

I boxed those three in the exacta and tri and made a win bet on the 2 system runners.

I was saved by my win bet on the 10. The super play 2 and the fulcrum ran out of the money.

I have also found this new program to help me stay out of races. In order to get those W-2 G's we all covet, you must find races where you can throw out the Fav and often the 2nd and 3rd choices too.

If I'm thinking of getting involved in a race and the Fav has some of the angles brought up by the new program, it helps me stay out of the race and save my ammo for another race.

Good luck all!

Donnie

08-24-2005, 11:14 AM

Glad to hear it is working for you guys. Hope ya catch many winners!

The Judge

08-24-2005, 11:19 AM

As I understand it there are only two listings, Professional Super Plays and Dynamic Plus Factors. Where a play ends up depends of the degree or gap in the angle sometimes against the other horses in the race sometimes against a set of established criteria. It lists Dan's off track numbers or turf numbers for each race if a large enough gap appears then it is shown in in one of the plays. Across the top it has 1st the horses number, the name, m/l, the trainer % of wins , the jockey%,the trainer and jockey% combined,the off track or turf number,the FPN number (fundamental power number)which is a speed rating base on the DRF number and variant,the Professinal Plays, the dynamic factors, rerversals, form cycle(lay offs). This is a very well thought out program and you can go thru cards in a flash and not miss anything. It is a black box in the sense that what I see you see there is no room for mis-interpretation the only thing left is how to use it i.e with your own handicapping, because this will show you things that I am sure most of would miss but this makes gaps jump up and shout at you,or as a stand alone program only use the "Super Plays" and /or the dynamic factors in some combination, or how to bet win, exotics. Without having made a bet I can see how this will improve my handicapping. With this program you won't miss much it shouts at things for you to look at or just bet without looking, its up to you as its been battle ground tested for 20-40 years depending on the angle.

Lefty

08-24-2005, 11:54 AM

I'm reading things like PPF and Fulcrum associated with the new prgm. Has MP blended his Handicapping Magic Factors with Serra's stuff?

Donnie

08-24-2005, 01:08 PM

Does it allow you to pdf the report out? I use flags and highlighting to have data jump off the page on my personal report.... I normally bet a horse only if found within the top four in each race.I would attach it but it is too big! You only accept 30KB and smaller!

Vegas711

08-24-2005, 01:15 PM

Mike Pizzolla has one thing going for him atleast he can show in front of a live audience that using his past programs that he can win $$.

Today I recieved a hype letter from the maker of ALL WAYS software. He plays at my hometrack CBY Park unlike Mike P. EDITED FOR POTENTIALLY LIBELOUS COMMENTS.

I am willing to show this guy up in the public domain, he can select 100 races who ever has the greater return on investment wins,the results would be posted for all to see. He will take this challenge becouse if everyone knew that he lost money with his program nobody would be STUPID enough to buy it.

Donnie

08-24-2005, 01:16 PM

R1-6,1A,4,1
R2-5,1,3,6
R3-6,1,2,5
R4-1,5,4,11
R5-1A,5,1,2B
R6-9,8,10,4
R7-8,3,6,7
R8-3,2,6,5
R9-6,8,2,3

As close to a black box as what you can find! :lol:

Vegas711

08-24-2005, 01:16 PM

HE will NOT take this challenge

PaceAdvantage

08-24-2005, 01:49 PM

He plays at my hometrack CBY Park unlike Mike P. EDITED FOR POTENTIALLY LIBELOUS COMMENTS

How do you know how much he wins or loses?

Donnie

08-24-2005, 02:00 PM

Anyone who would like a public challenge, as well as earn a FREE entry in the Orleans tournament, get over to the HTR board and sign up. Contest starts this Friday and you don't need to subscribe to HTR to enter. A $25 donation to the webmaster is all it takes!

Best of Luck!

Tom

08-24-2005, 02:15 PM

Hey Donnie...what track are you posting for?

JimG

08-24-2005, 02:16 PM

How do you know how much he wins or loses?

The same way he knew in another thread that 90% of all professional horseplayers are win-only bettors.:lol: Gary Hall must have had one losing day at Cby, now it is a fact.:rolleyes:

The Judge

08-24-2005, 03:01 PM

I don't know if it can be downloaded into another format.
Pizzola HM numbers have nothing to do with this program other then the fact that they sometimes point to the same horse for a number of reasons,I think because HM opens up the form cycle window so far on some horses.

This is a powerful program it does not list 4 horses then say go choose, it does the opposite, it chooses some plays are stronger then others, if they are the same you can pass the race or wait until there is only one super play the program tells you what type of a play it is. The races that are posted here may or may not be the best way to use the program or how I would use it. It's not designed to get $3.80 winners but these horses may come up if they have the angle. If you are playing pic 3-6-5-6's you need these horses , you may find a horse with a strong angle as well as good numbers. If this program listed 3-4 horses and said go choose with a 60 day money back we would all return them. They should put out a demo may be later they will.

Donnie

08-24-2005, 03:13 PM

Tom-
SAR....teaching Access today and am using Horseracing as my db....sucking wind over at MTH and DEL......fun teaching people who don't know anything about db's horsey stuff at the same time! :bang:

Vegas711

08-24-2005, 03:19 PM

How do you know how much he wins or loses?

I sat next to his table.

Donnie

08-24-2005, 03:28 PM

R5- (after scratches) 5,2,8,7
R6- (after scratches) 8,10,4,7
R9- (after scratches) 6,8,3,4

I normally will look over my top 4 then see who fits the conditions out of them. I then look at Jock changes and form cycle. Usually pretty easy to find one or two left!

Vegas711

08-24-2005, 03:30 PM

The same way he knew in another thread that 90% of all professional horseplayers are win-only bettors.:lol: Gary Hall must have had one losing day at Cby, now it is a fact.:rolleyes:

I am not going to waste my time convincing you of anything. I could care less about what you think!!!!!!!!!!

JimG

08-24-2005, 06:50 PM

I am not going to waste my time convincing you of anything. I could care less about what you think!!!!!!!!!!

When you post on Pace Advantage quoting statistics (90% of all pro horseplayers are win-only bettors) and state emphatically that somebody (All-Ways creator Gary Hall) is a loser at the track, expect to be challenged. Don't take it personally.

Vegas711

08-24-2005, 07:48 PM

I am a regular player at canterbury park i sat next to Mr. hall's table for about 2 years although it has been 2 years since i have seen him playing the races, i am stating my opinion on past events not current.Canterbury is a small track the regulars out there pretty much know everyone.It is my judgement that the man during the time i played next to him that he lost money on his program. If he is a winner today then he is.

From my post concerning win betters i latter stated that the people who I know of who are proffesional players 90 % of them are Win betters.

If someone is successful betting exotics they should continue with it , if they are not according to their betting records maybe a change of betting venue would be a good idea.

AS far as taking crap goes i can take what anybody throws at me.Just be prepared to take it back. In my neck of the woods you either put the dukes up or shut up.

JimG

08-24-2005, 07:59 PM

AS far as taking crap goes i can take what anybody throws at me.Just be prepared to take it back. In my neck of the woods you either put the dukes up or shut up.

Thanks for the clarification. In my neck of the woods, you can have a disagreement without fist fighting. I outgrew that when I became an adult.

midnight

08-25-2005, 12:04 AM

AS far as taking crap goes i can take what anybody throws at me.Just be prepared to take it back. In my neck of the woods you either put the dukes up or shut up.

I grew up in Golden Valley (west suburbs of Minneapolis), circa the early 1960's, and if I remember right, people were civil, adult, and mature. They didn't "put up (their) dukes" if somebody disagreed. Maybe you live in a different neck of the woods up there in Minnesota.

I've looked at All Ways, couldn't figure it out, not my cup of tea. I know that at $14 per track racefile ($7 with the gold plan) per day, it must have something going for it; otherwise the price would have gone down.

Back on topic, it doesn't surprise me that more than one first-time-poster has shown up with a commercial for how great Mr. Pizzolla and his program are. This has happened in the past.

PaceAdvantage

08-25-2005, 02:36 AM

It is my judgement that the man during the time i played next to him that he lost money on his program. If he is a winner today then he is.

WHOA!!! Wait a second here. First you post "this guy never wins using the program that he sells" and "he can afford to lose $1000's betting with his software".....and now you're saying it's your JUDGEMENT that the "man during the time I played next to him lost money."

Seems like two VERY different sentiments. The first one sounds like you have evidence and hard facts to back up your accusations. Now you're saying it's only your JUDGEMENT.

Looks like I may have to edit your post because of potentially libelous comments.

Vegas711

08-25-2005, 03:47 AM

I used a bad choice of words, i am not a person who is inclined to hit someone that disagrees with me.All that i meant was that i am not so thin skinned that my feelings would be hurt if someone dissagrees with me.:cool:

Any creator of a software product that boasts how great their program is should have to show proof that he can win with it.Why should someone pay good money for a program without proof that the person who wrote the program can win with it. Mike Pizzollas program is being put thru the test it is my opinion that others should be too.

garyoz

08-25-2005, 10:10 AM

One thing you must admit, the Pizzolla Groupies seem to have alot of passion, or maybe some of them are shills. I noticed that they do tend to be black-box oriented and want picks and contender lists, no amibiguity, and sure don't talk about handicapping much. Just how picks performed.

I've posted a fair amount about Allways and have argued that the program is OK. It does have some serious problems. But one thing, you have to be a handicapper to understand it, and you have to be familiar with the handicapping "literature" to get anything close to full use out of it. That might be too intellectual for your run of the mill Pizzolla customer.

From what I have read Allways is also moving to serve the "black box" market segment with its annual upgrade this fall. If someone has a black box that worked they wouldn't be selling it for a few hundred bucks.

Speaking of making money, I have heard that there were some personal bankruptcy issues back when PIRCO broke up. Does anyone know the actual story on that?

The Judge

08-25-2005, 01:19 PM

I have a few questions under the heading "Computer Handicapping" and a post entitled "Pizzolla Rides Again" what do you think we should be talking about? I thought Pizzolla and his computer program would be in the ball park but I can see I'm wrong. Once again you "handicappers" with computers by the way have me stumped. Next question seeing as how you aren't going to but any of the computer programs have you at least read any Pizzolla's work? If so what are your criticism he layed out his lifes work in "Handicapping Magic" there must be something wrong tell me what it is. What about Pace makes the Race what's wrong there? In both of those books the method was laid out so that you could do it by hand you didn't need to buy a program or download files all you needed was past performances. Not so smart for the type of person some of you say he is.

JackS

08-25-2005, 01:48 PM

I'm not familiar with Allways but I would think that any of these computer programs should work if the guy/gal using them has a complete understanding of relavent track factors associated with tthe particular track they're playing.
Probably not wise to expect any program to be successful as a universal "one program fits all" profit maker.
Does Allways allow for it's HC factors to be modified by the user? If so, good handicappers will be modifying pertinent factors that pretain to each individual track that they play.
For the average person who refuses to modify, he should at least experiment with different tracks and perhaps find one that can be played with some confidence. Degrees of success might be measured all the way from profits to beat the track take. If the former, , great. If the latter, your close and perhaps this could be the imputus to tweak the program a bit.

garyoz

08-25-2005, 02:22 PM

I. Next question seeing as how you aren't going to but any of the computer programs have you at least read any Pizzolla's work? If so what are your criticism he layed out his lifes work in "Handicapping Magic" there must be something wrong tell me what it is. .

Personally I read the book and there was a lengthy thread about it. I just found the approach simplistic. It is thread 12731. I think this link would get you there. If you are making money using it, hats-off to you.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?=12731&page=3&pp=15t

Wickel

08-25-2005, 02:37 PM

The majority of software programs--TMM, TMH, All-Ways, All-in-One, etc.--have some merit. The bottom line for me, though, is that like anything on the market nowadays, they just give you contenders. In the end, the final choice is yours--not my cup of tea for $500, $697 or even $1,000. This might be a black-box mentality, but for that price, I believe a program should isolate one of two horses and take a stand.

JackS

08-25-2005, 02:42 PM

Wickel- The way I see it the line is the stand. Accept only overlays. For a program to take an absolute stand, it would have to know the final off odds.

The Judge

08-25-2005, 02:47 PM

I've had complicated, obscure,esoteric, so simplistic, easy, and simple are certainly my cup of tea. And I will consider any advise given here carefully "if I make money with a simplistic program continue to use it."

Wickel

08-25-2005, 02:53 PM

Good point, Jack.

garyoz

08-25-2005, 03:28 PM

I had a dead link on the earlier thread. Sorry. This should work.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=184326&postcount=43

Wickel

08-25-2005, 04:49 PM

Nice post Gary. I basically agree. The approach is simplistic, but when you start interpreting the numbers, that's when things get a little hairy. What I meant by taking a stand on my earlier post is that after working the program--preferences, filters, value tech, and yes, the odds--the final printout should be representative of yur final decision. But it's not. Take for example heavily pressured races. In the book, MP advocates looking for the best ppf numbers, but then in one of the examples goes with speed of the speed instead, while at the same time heeding 'cappers not to discount the fulcrum horse. And this goes on and on for each race and each scenario. The interpretations are endless. As for myself, I'm basically a trip handicapper, so I further dissect the race with my info. I hope to continually evolve as a master handicapper, but sometimes all the variables frustrate me.

kingfin66

08-25-2005, 09:13 PM

One thing you must admit, the Pizzolla Groupies seem to have alot of passion, or maybe some of them are shills.

I resent you labeling me or other Pizzolla customers as groupies. Must a user of a product who posts here at PA be labeled a shill? If that's the case, then so are users of any other handicapping product.

I noticed that they do tend to be black-box oriented and want picks and contender lists, no amibiguity, and sure don't talk about handicapping much. Just how picks performed.

What the hell are you talking about? Oh never mind, you don't know. I honestly can't even figure out where you are getting this generalization from, therefore, I will conclude that it is born of ignorance. Please feel free to explain how you came to this inane conclusion.

I've posted a fair amount about Allways and have argued that the program is OK.

I guess this makes you a shill too. Or is it a groupie?

It does have some serious problems. But one thing, you have to be a handicapper to understand it, and you have to be familiar with the handicapping "literature" to get anything close to full use out of it. That might be too intellectual for your run of the mill Pizzolla customer.

You sure do pack a lot of insults into one post don't you? All I have to say is, right back 'atcha.

From what I have read Allways is also moving to serve the "black box" market segment with its annual upgrade this fall. If someone has a black box that worked they wouldn't be selling it for a few hundred bucks.

Finally, something that actually makes sense and is non-offensive.

Speaking of making money, I have heard that there were some personal bankruptcy issues back when PIRCO broke up. Does anyone know the actual story on that?

Sorry, I don't know. I try to speak only of things that I know of.

laff

08-25-2005, 09:39 PM

Garyoz,

I see that a lot of people on here use different programs. Hey, you use Allways. Are you a shill for them? Just because people happen to like the program they use, doesn't make them a shill. Wow! So a person that uses Pizzola's stuff couldn't use Allways from what you said. Too intellectual for them. Gee Gary, you're pretty free with the insults. I think Kingfin said it all. You are a piece of work.

midnight

08-25-2005, 11:42 PM

What burns me is the endless parade of This-Is-My-First-Post types who proclaim the wholesomeness of a programmer and the wonderment of the program (and not just Mr. Pizzolla, there have been others). I suppose we're supposed to believe that these people are long-time lurkers, each of whom decided to break out of hiding, make a screen name, and overcome their shyness in the middle of a heated thread by jumping in feet-first and getting involved in a bold and direct way.

cato

08-26-2005, 12:52 AM

I was going to jump in with gusto but I see that Kingfin beat me to the punch with a response. I don't know if GaryOz was just trying to get things going or not with the "shills" and Black Box" and "simplistic" comments but it worked (at least for me)

The "shills" who don't talk about handicapping and want a black box. Jeez, not sure where that came from. I think that over the years, Kingfin, Blackgold, Bob Harris and many others who are obvious users of MPs MPs programs have contributed in a very positive way to the forum in their discussion of handicapping and generally raising the level of discourse here. I think the ratio of substantive posts vs bs posts and drivel posts is very postive. We should hope to have discussions on such a high level.

Black box? You're kidding right. To effectively utilize MP's techniques you have to do a race shape analysis, form analysis, early pace (positional) analayis, mid-pace analysis, final fraction/close analysis, look for reversal patterns, lay off patterns, and a value analysis (I've probably left out a few).

It is true that the numbers are easily calculated. You could call the numbers approach of MP simplistic or clean or contrarian, etc.

I've worked with a lot of complex numbers that have been generated to the .0001, par times, ability times, the Cramer numbers, etc. etc and to be candid I have had no confidence in those numbers. I see how off the adjustments can be and it leads me to believe that simple is better. Having said that I may have to rethink these thoughts with CJs numbers. Stay tuned.

Now having said that, let's be honest. If I had a black box that was profitable I would be a happy guy. Heck I'd bet the black box picks automatically, which would allow more time to do my full blown handicapping on the side. But, they don't exist in a commercial setting and if they ever did they would stop working because the everyone would start using them.

ANd then there was the complaint by midnight about the "endless parade of This-Is-My-First-Post types who proclaim the wholesomeness of a programmer and the wonderment of the program (and not just Mr. Pizzolla, there have been others)."

It is true that those posts can be infuriating and get old real fast. As for posts from people who actually used the new MP program I saw 5--Blackgold (191 posts), Niko (286 posts), Jeep (48), The Judge (111) and ponypro (1). 4 of the posts appear from veteran or semi veteran posters and sounded sincere and helpful. I gotta admit that the post from first time poster Ponypro sounded a little (okay, a lot) shillish. But whaddayagonnado? Maybe he's just young.

WHew, I'm tired of typing. Did anyone make it to the end? :cool:

acorn54

08-26-2005, 01:04 AM

from what i know of horseracing and the financial markets, it is possible to make a positive return on both. however in speculating there is no regular and reliable income. even if one approaches their subject in a statistically valid way, each year is a crapshoot at to whether one will be in the black or in the red. all one can really be certain about, with a valid approach is that in the long run their will be a positive expectancy with intelligent approaches.
having said that, i am unfamiliar with mike pizzolla's work other than having read this board, and the book reviews on his book at amazon.com.. but i am suspicious of any claims that unconditionally, profits are to be had year in and year out with any approach to speculation.

traynor

08-26-2005, 01:36 AM

JackS wrote: <I'm not familiar with Allways but I would think that any of these computer programs should work if the guy/gal using them has a complete understanding of relavent track factors associated with tthe particular track they're playing. >

A key selling point of All-Ways is the "regression analysis update" feature. In short, the app keeps tracks of longshots (anomalies) in specific categories, then, "with the push of a button," tweaks the algorithms so that it would have predicted that longshot (or several) provided the tweaking had been done before the race and not after. Any "self-adjusting" app should be viewed with a healthy degree of skepticism about the degree to which the anomalies may repeat in the future.

As for the impression that All-Ways is too cerebral, or that it is only for experts, I strongly disagree. We ran an unbiased test (translation; it was for our own use, not publication) using a dataset of 10,000 races randomly sliced from a much larger dataset. All-Ways performance was dismal. If it had been anywhere near profitable, or even break even, we would have reverse engineered the algorithms for our own use (a perfectly legal and common practice in software development). It was not even close.
Good luck

NoDayJob

08-26-2005, 02:07 AM

I suppose we're supposed to believe that these people are long-time lurkers, each of whom decided to break out of hiding, make a screen name, and overcome their shyness in the middle of a heated thread by jumping in feet-first and getting involved in a bold and direct way.

:D I believe, I believe. I believe they're full of 6213119147 2211212198920! :D

NDJ

Vegas711

08-26-2005, 02:10 AM

First I will state that I am not ( OBVIOUS) a customer of theirs nor have I ever purchased a single data sheet of theirs, but I have seen their computer sheets left on tables at cby park at the end of the night.After seeing numerous days of their material i can not for the life of me see how this program could help anyone.

Each race had like 12 or 13 pages of data with in my opinion seemed like a hundred plus ratings etc.Looking over one race depending upon what rating you looked at you could have as your selection any horse in the race.Talking about confusion, there was so much ink that your eyes blurred.

Black boxes are not the answer granted, but a program that can make a case for any horse in a race is not either.Horse racing is not a complicated game it does not need a program that does gap deficiency analysis blah blah blah.Horses run against one another, they could care less about multiple regression etc. models. In my opinion this is all just a bunch of crap to fool a bunch of suckers out of their hard earned money.

So that I am not edited again i state that the above is just my opinion .

PaceAdvantage

08-26-2005, 02:14 AM

NoDayJob

08-26-2005, 02:16 AM

If I had a black box that was profitable I would be a happy guy. But, they don't exist in a commercial setting and if they ever did they would stop working because the everyone would start using them. :cool:

Youse said it brudder!

NDJ

NoDayJob

08-26-2005, 02:26 AM

Just because you don't think it's useful, doesn't mean it's not. It's been my experience that the highest rated software programs allow you to "see" races in many different ways. Just because All-Ways provides a bunch of different ways to handicap, doesn't mean you have to utilize every one of them. Same thing with HTR, same thing with HSH, Synergism, and all the other programs I've used, that have come highly recommended.

BTW, I was a user of All-Ways in the past, and I did not come away with the opinion that it was worthless. Far from it, in fact. Am I still using it today? No.

Hey PA,

If you're not using it, clue us in as to why you stopped? What are you now using? I know you developed your own software for sale but stopped selling it. Have you improved it to the point that it's no longer in your best interests to release it commercially? Thank you.

NDJ

PaceAdvantage

08-26-2005, 02:31 AM

If you're not using it, clue us in as to why you stopped? What are you now using? I know you developed your own software for sale but stopped selling it. Have you improved it to the point that it's no longer in your best interests to release it commercially? Thank you.

I stopped because I didn't think the cost of the data was worth the program....but that's not to say it wasn't a good program. It's just that, there were other, equally capable programs out there, with a much lower overhead...

As for my own stuff, I'm in a constant love-hate relationship with my own software. I stop using it every so often, to use something else, but I always come back to my first love.....LOL

For instance, right now, I am using CJ's figs....

Vegas711

08-26-2005, 02:56 AM

I stopped because I didn't think the cost of the data was worth the program....but that's not to say it wasn't a good program. It's just that, there were other, equally capable programs out there, with a much lower overhead...

As for my own stuff, I'm in a constant love-hate relationship with my own software. I stop using it every so often, to use something else, but I always come back to my first love.....LOL

For instance, right now, I am using CJ's figs....

PA, you quit becouse you did not think the cost of the data was worth the program ? If it where a good program it would be worth the $14.00 data fee after all, if it where a good program you would make enough money with it that you would not care about the $ 14.00

Maybe just maybe the program isn't so hot and that it is difficult to win the $ 14 back .

You will find that the best software is your own.

Blackgold

08-26-2005, 07:00 AM

I've posted on this forum before and feel I should post on this thread my experience with All Ways.

About the time of Saratoga/Delmar in 2001 BRIS was giving, for a limited time, free downloads of All Ways. So I bit.

Of course I was excited. Especially after I started crunching numbers. Plus there was so much in there by people who's books I had read like Quirin Speed Points, Hambelton Form Points, etc., etc.

I'd print out the reems of paper and try and make sense of it all. Didn't have much luck.

Remember my eyes glazing over while looking a a dirt route at DMR and really couldn't find that the program pointed to anything, other that low priced underlays.

Then I'm looking at this runner, and I'll never forget the name- Movings Gold, that was coming back in 9 days, had back class and had won repeatedly at the distance and whose running style fit todays race. I bet $50 to win and received 10-1. I never looked at the program again.

What I like about Pizzolla's stuff, besides a buldging folder of W-2 G's, is the simplicity of it all.

It breaks the race down into managable compenents. The Fulcrum, the PPF, the pace set-up, the Overlays.

The new program simply gives me more ways to find value in a race OR in some cases pass a race because the FAV is not as vulenrable as I would like to think.

Some may be trying to use the new program as a Black Box as I sometimes notice the opening odds on some of the "system" runners to be way too low.

They key to making money at this game is to look at a lot of races, as many as 10 tracks a day, and find a couple that you think you can pick apart and then maybe get lucky and hit a triple grand slam. If not, at least continue to grind out some profits so your bank is fat so when you see a potential Super Play Triple Grand Slam, you are not afraid to pull the trigger to the tune of a mortgage payment and feel you did the right thing, win or lose.

Good luck all!

Niko

08-26-2005, 10:40 AM

I've been able to look at a few cards for this past Del Mar meet and would like to post the results. Some quick notes. The Pure Plays are races with only 1 qualifier who goes off at odds of 4-1 or up. From the tapes it suggests you can play these blindly and make a profit....referred to as "cash like clockwork" in the tapes and material.

Results from some Del Mar cards this past summer-Pure Play
46 plays, 3 wins. Bet $92 Won $56.

Qualifiers that were first time starters were 0-12. Take those out and the results are better. Qualifiers not among the top 4 contenders on either speed or pace with ITS numbers were 0-13, although two did finish second at over 20-1 odds.

All Super Professional Plays:
150 Plays 25 winners Bet $300 Return $201.60

Sub-sets First time starters 4-32 Bet $64 won $29
Not in top 4 pace or speed 1-21 Bet $42 won $8

I'd be careful of not including those in the top 4 because again, two of them finished 2nd at over 20-1 and would have changed the results, and could over a large sample.

Points to make so we don't have to "argue" over them. This is a small sample. People can improve the results making their own judgements (or make the results worse) due to race shape etc...the results only apply to one track that I like to play...I've said good and negative things about Post Time and Pizolla

But the program is sold (my interpretation) with the belief you don't need to make to many of your own judgement calls because the program filters the plays as much as is possible through programming. AND Dan Serra DOESN'T use speed or pace in his betting decisions using these plays.

Haven't found a good way to filter out the losers and keep the winners. Hopefully they'll be more coming from different tracks. Any other users feel free to jump in. I haven't completed my opinion yet but so far I, that's I, haven't been able to justify the price.

As for All-Ways. My experience is similar to those already stated. Too much noise...(good for selling..well if you would have used this criteria in this race, that criteria in the other race) and we all should know the pitfalls of constantly back-testing and back-fitting races. Good program, lot's of information..but is the cost of data files worth it compared to other programs?

midnight

08-26-2005, 12:32 PM

. If it had been anywhere near profitable, or even break even, we would have reverse engineered the algorithms for our own use (a perfectly legal and common practice in software development).

It may be common practice, but it's copyright infringement. Proving it's being done might be difficult.

Jeep

08-26-2005, 12:33 PM

I haven't had a chance to really study program, but I'll make a couple of observations. I don't think MP intended for this to be a black box, each chapter says,"If you are integrating these Professional Super Plays into your handicapping, rather than playing them on their own, there are several points that you might want to consider." I like the idea of having the horse who did the last quarter in 24 seconds listed, the positive turn time horses and Z pattern listed. These are things I look at and by listing them the program will save me a lot of time. As I said, I haven't studied the program but so far I like what I see.
Jeep

garyoz

08-26-2005, 01:41 PM

I guess this makes you a shill too. Or is it a groupie?

That reference was to the fact that I said Allways was "OK." I have actually posted far my negative things about Allways than positive on this Board. I have also never said that it or the files are worth the money. I have posted that the program that I have had the most success with is Synergism. I don't use it now because I don't have the time for individual pace line selection.

Sorry if I infuriated you Pizzolla fans. You do seem to be true believers. And as I have said several times, its great if you can make money using the program. Nothing like a "stack of W-2g's".

Niko

08-26-2005, 02:47 PM

"If you are integrating these Professional Super Plays into your handicapping, rather than playing them on their own.."

Jeep: The quote to me implies that they can be and are designed to be played on their own OR you can incorporate them into your own play if you choose to take that route

Wickel

08-29-2005, 03:43 PM

Lefty

08-29-2005, 04:31 PM

Wickel, reversal protocol is what Doc Sartin called the tandem concept. Say horse A Beat horse B by 5 lgths. Now today lets say horde A short odds and B good odds. All other things being equal you'd bet B for the odds. Doc used to suggest going no further than 6.75 lgths i think, if mem serves.

kingfin66

08-29-2005, 10:57 PM

I recently purchased TMM from a friend and didn't get my hands on the tapes till over the weekend (just borrowed them again; he wanted too much for the entire package). Anyway, I listened to the tapes and there was not a single word on "reverse protocal," a term that I've read a lot about on this thread, but know absolutely nothing about. Can someone elaborate?

Congrats on the purchase of TMM. Reversal Protocol was presented at the 2003 Quantum Leap Seminar. There are also tapes available for that seminar. Be sure to check out the Handicapping Magic group at Yahoo:

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/handicappingmagic/

John

08-30-2005, 09:52 AM

Nice plug king, PA must like you.

kingfin66

08-30-2005, 10:16 AM

Nice plug king, PA must like you.

I at least hope he doesn't hate me. Other than the fact that it is a Yahoo group, there is nothing commercial associated with it. Hardly anybody posts there and we all post here too. It's just a little info for those who want it. Haven't seen you there for a long time...

John

08-30-2005, 10:48 AM

....and you won't.

some of your members have closed minds. God forbid,if I should step on MP toes.

Anyway, good luck with MP Seminar. and his programs.

Wickel

08-30-2005, 11:20 AM

Thanks for the explanation, guys.

Niko

09-01-2005, 10:20 PM

Vegas711

09-02-2005, 01:21 AM

Here's the results for some races at Gulfstream this year;

Pure Plays 3-52 Bet $104 Won $49.80
All Plays 23-166 Bet $334 Won $476.80 (Two horses payed over $100)

Not sure when/if more tracks will come. Anyone else?

What is the difference between Pure plays and All plays.Are there more than 1 pick per race?

kingfin66

09-02-2005, 01:55 AM

Pure Plays are those in races with only 1 selection and the odds are 4/1 or higher. There are often more than 1 selections per race. Also, there are not selections for every race.

acorn54

09-02-2005, 02:04 AM

this "reverse protocol" is there any record of how these types have done in the past?
acorn

Lefty

09-02-2005, 02:06 AM

Got the flyer today.
Anybody know how these are doing?:
The Amazing Super Play
The Early Speed Dynamic
Profit From The Hidden Fraction
Dan's Stunning Legal Medication Plays
The Astonishing Star Mdn Play
Those that have the software, how are the above plays doing?

Niko

09-02-2005, 10:49 AM

Lefty;

I haven't broken down the plays by category but a couple quick observations. The Lasix plays haven't fared well, particularilty with first time starters. Haven't come across a Star Maiden play yet. Due to some long prices the profits have been from The Johnny Smith play which deals with workouts. I don't have any records for the reverse protocols. More of a tool to use but I would love to see the results run through a database for low odds horses.

midnight

09-02-2005, 01:08 PM

A lot of the ideas seem dated in the 70's and 80's, and this doesn't surprise me. Most of my conversations with Dan at the Gold Coast centered around ideas that were long outdated or overbet.

The lasix angle doesn't work anymore. Almost every trainer puts a horse on lasix as soon as possible, a horse that gets it rarely is taken off of it (unless it's forbidden by the jurisdiction), and the few 'first time" instances are overbet.

For example, in the last 70 days at the tracks in my database, here are the stats for horses who are first-time lasix and are not making their first lifetime start.

Plays: 1693
Wins: 205
Pct: 12.1%
ROI: 0.69

Here are the stats for all horses in the same time period:

Plays: 88633
Wins: 10838
Pct: 12.2%
ROI: 0.76

In other words, first-lasix on a horse that's run without it in the past has no significant difference in the win percentage over random horses, and the ROI is worse.

For the record, here are the stats on first-lasix and first-lifetime-start:

Plays: 3387
Wins: 323
Pct: 9.5%
ROI: 0.70

And first-time starters WITHOUT lasix:

Plays: 2236
Wins: 138
Pct: 6.2%
ROI: 0.58

First time starters with lasix do much better than those without it, but still not well enough to come close to a profit.

Here are horses making their second lifetime start who don't get lasix:

Starts: 936
Wins: 66
Pct: 7.1%
ROI: 0.73

Not much improvement over their first time start with no lasix:

And those same horses (who didn't have lasix in their first lifetime start) making their second lifetime start but now are getting (first-time) lasix:

Plays: 801
Wins:100
Pct: 12.5%
ROI: 0.63

Horses who didn't get lasix in their first start and are now getting it in their second start win a lot more races, but they're grossly overbet and have a miserable ROI.

So Serra's angle has merit as far as improvement goes with first and second lifetime start horses (and probably other lightly raced horses, as well). The problem is that the information is available to everybody (that wasn't always the case), and it's overbet.

Vegas711

09-02-2005, 03:25 PM

ezpace

09-03-2005, 12:44 AM

Hello Keilan ,

Believe it. I'm a SPEED/pace handicapper and use a set of PROPRIETARY speed* figs that we're
developed in chicago in **1948*** that still work on any oval NOW.....We have had to increase the times and points in sequence since then of course because horses have ran faster. These do not use pars for each class as you know them. I made speed figs for a couple decades and never came close to them in accuracy or CJ's great performance numbers(pace included)

I also never believed in averaging anything such as CJ has said especially RAW times ,,,UNTIL i got these figs quite a few years back . Between the way this guy did his speed number without pars and how he calibrated each tick in a fraction of a second
on his point chart they are unique.

RE: pace , if done properly,, averaging and using position averages also is BIG IMO.
Brohammer knew this somewhat when he wrote in the first book ""POSITION is MORE important than VELOCITY""..

So between CJ's great performance numbers and the 1948's I'm a content gambler but I still learn plenty from some guys here to include in the tool box .enjoy your posts a lot.

.

keilan

09-03-2005, 01:38 AM

Easy – it’s funny you would mention cj and I in the same post “Pizzolla Rises Again -- with Dan Serra” I also agree cj is very talented but I don’t know what that has to do with me.

By the way I didn’t know that Brohammer that had written a book titled "POSITION is MORE important than VELOCITY” but believe me that makes sense. It’s all about energy.

I would love Tom Brohammer to engage me on the topic of energy here on this forum someday; it would be a privilege to discuss all the stuff he didn’t write about.

Glad to read you enjoy my posts but many members find me obnoxious but hey -- they can kiss the fat lady’s ass cause I’m with you. :kiss:

kingfin66

09-03-2005, 06:34 AM

Glad to read you enjoy my posts but many members find me obnoxious but hey -- they can kiss the fat lady’s ass cause I’m with you. :kiss:

There's cocky and there's confident. You are confident.

Lefty

09-03-2005, 11:53 AM

ezpace, Far as i'm aware, Brohamer wrote one book: Modern Pace Handicapping. I see no Chapter heading where velocity and position is mentioned. Can you refer me to what chapter that's in?
However, Pizzolla does have a chapter titled The Magic of Pace And Position in Handicapping Magic. It's Chapter 8.

09-03-2005, 01:21 PM

I'm pretty sure he mentions this in one of the new chapters in the revised edition of Modern Pace Handicapping. It could be one of the compilations though, Bet W/ the Best or the Quinn one, Best of T-Bred Handicapping.

46zilzal

09-03-2005, 06:16 PM

strange that Brohamer MISSED the boat as a disciple of Sartin.......Position and velocity have nothing to do with one another. One often sees horses going wire to wire as sustained/pressers

09-03-2005, 06:18 PM

strange that Brohamer MISSED the boat as a disciple of Sartin.......Position and velocity have nothing to do with one another

Last I checked, how fast a horse runs early (velocity) determines where it is in the race (position.)

46zilzal

09-03-2005, 06:19 PM

Last I checked, how fast a horse runs early (velocity) determines where it is in the race (position.)
RELATIVELY ONLY..OFTEN, very often the winner runs the highest velocity(start to finisH OR true speed) and is NO where near the pace UNTIL LATER ON IN THE CONTEST

VELOCITY is segemental at best

46zilzal

09-03-2005, 08:30 PM

a hard to accept concept occurs when a horse runs the fastest start to finish velocity coming into a contest and loses because today's match-up does not favor that running style. This is particularly true when their deceleration is not up with the true contenders.

Tom

09-03-2005, 11:13 PM

Jim the Hat used postion as an integral part of the match up. Even Sartin addressed NTL horses in the follow up.

To this day, I try to determine if a horse is a velocity or positional horse. Some horses will run whatever they need to run to get the early lead - and this will kill them off many times. Other horses are more flexible - if the opportunity is there, they go for the lead, if not, they press.
Joe Colville wrote about positional horses as well.
In my own variation of the match up, I look at wehre the horse is in it's winnig racs (or very good races) and see if can be there in today's velocity match up.

Say a horse has four wins showing, and it's first call position in each win was 3,3,2,3, and today's match up will put this horse 5th early. This is a negative that might not be overcome. If today's match up puts this horse on the lead, I'm betting with both hands - it will probably run 3 or 4 early, not running nearly as hard as it would have to - allowing a much better late kick, from 3 or position early. Some times, as 46 oints out, a horse is just too good and actually wires the filed whole distributing his energy as a presser or sustained horse. 46 - theo old Energy program was great at spotting this kind of horse. I wouls see a hores as the early paradigm, and see he was always running in the back of the pack - then today, he would go to the front. Got this a lot at the inner track at Auq. Not sure about today, but it was a confusing concept to accept back in the day.

Not always a clean race like this, but the spirit of the postional match up explains a lot of seemingly bad races.

46zilzal

09-03-2005, 11:34 PM

To this day, I try to determine if a horse is a velocity or positional horse.

agree there

keilan

09-03-2005, 11:38 PM

RELATIVELY ONLY..OFTEN, very often the winner runs the highest velocity(start to finisH OR true speed) and is NO where near the pace UNTIL LATER ON IN THE CONTEST

VELOCITY is segemental at best

Then

a hard to accept concept occurs when a horse runs the fastest start to finish velocity coming into a contest and loses because today's match-up does not favor that running style. This is particularly true when their deceleration is not up with the true contenders.

Maybe I'm being a li'l thick tonight but can someone explain what he is saying?

Overlay

09-04-2005, 12:39 AM

46zilzal

09-04-2005, 01:15 AM

Maybe I'm being a li'l thick tonight but can someone explain what he is saying?

I have to look up the specifics which I will quote after I find them.

46zilzal

09-04-2005, 03:23 AM

Sounds to me like he's saying that, just because a horse may have the highest likely overall, start-to-finish velocity coming into a race, its running style (especially if it's a come-from-behind type) may not allow it to exploit that velocity potential enough to permit it to win today's race, depending on how the rest of the field shapes up in terms of running style, particularly if there are front-runners which don't "back up" as much as anticipated in the stretch. If the come-from-behind type waits too long to make its move, it won't be able to catch the pacesetters under those circumstances.

Essentially yes but with many other variants. Often an early runner (even with best velocity coming into this contest) is meeting a competitor that will make him go even faster to keep the lead and BOTH negate one another, OR the same TWO did well in their last respective races without much pace pressure (esentially over after the 2nd call) and coasted home which will not happen today. They come in with the best velocity but may not be there late. There are yet more variations on this same theme

andicap

09-04-2005, 05:48 AM

Essentially yes but with many other variants. Often an early runner (even with best velocity coming into this contest) is meeting a competitor that will make him go even faster to keep the lead and BOTH negate one another, OR the same TWO did well in their last respective races without much pace pressure (esentially over after the 2nd call) and coasted home which will not happen today. They come in with the best velocity but may not be there late. There are yet more variations on this same theme

But no one is saying velocity is all important -- or rather that velocity as measured by AP (total velocity as measured in sprints as F1+F2+F3) is closely related to positional handicapping in and of itself.
Those who relate a horse's velocity for the entire race to position aren't really using pace or energy. Who doesn't consider F1 or EP velocity to determine if an E horse will get the lead? Or if an EP horse is quick enough to be on or near the pace? Or if an SP horse can be on or near the lead while running well within himself?
Those who don't are not really using pace to handicap via velocity figures. It's all energy as Keilan says. But some people use different terms.

Example, E horse in the past has exerted %E energy of 54.84% when facing an pace of "X". Today the pace could be X-2 seconds. Suddenly the horse does not have to exert that much energy early. He can get by with a 52.00 say because he will not be pressured. Suddenly he's a huge contender. Even better if he's an E/P horse. Brohamer certainly wrote about this.
Or conversely the "S" horse that ran in the above mentioned race where the E horse was able to get by on a 52.00 energy. The S has no shot in that race but is "live" in the race where the E has to run a 54.84 especially if he sucks a lot of other "E" and E/P or even P horses with him so they all stagger home in 27 (6f race) or more and the S horse picks up the pieces.
In a slower paced race (with lower %E pace) the S horse is limited even if he can stay close to the pace because the horses in front of him likely have enough energy left to run a 24 final fraction meaning it would take a Forego to pass them. But if all of the E or EP horses are stinkers the S horse with the huge F3 has a shot.
I'm not giving away any secrets here. Brohamer wrote about that too. It's pace/energy 101.

Keep track of the Pace of the Race %E and relate it to positional handicapping and you're ahead of the game.

Lefty

09-04-2005, 11:55 AM

andicap, nice post, well explained.

keilan

09-04-2005, 12:14 PM

Overlay - thanx for the interpretation I was totally lost reading this thread yesterday.

Andi – excellent post  In addition if you now factor in today’s track condition and qualify which horses are now advantaged because of track speed/estimated pace/race shape/%E the picture of the race begins to take focus.
There is a direct relationship between energy and pace but the 3rd variable in the equation is “today’s track speed”. All this might appear fairly straight forward but the player still is required to make accurate estimates of both track speed and expected pace or the concept means nothing.

46 – thanx for trying to clarify your thoughts

Tom

09-04-2005, 12:34 PM

K-man....is THAT what you have trying to tell me for years! :bang:

I think I am finally "getting" %E....thanks to you and andicap.

keilan

09-04-2005, 12:44 PM

Tom there’s a small charge to whoever “gets it” as of today you’re the 2nd guy. :jump:

Vegas711

09-04-2005, 02:27 PM

Energy, Velocity it is all the same thing it is just 2 names for the same concept.
Energy just sounds more scientific.There are no complicated formulas just level 1 high school algebra invoved in there calculations.

Brohammer never wrote that position was superior to velocity.

09-05-2005, 12:03 PM

Brohammer never wrote that position was superior to velocity.

Here is exactly what Brohamer wrote in Bet With the Best:

Pace figures are invaluable when used by competent handicappers, but they will never replace a careful analysis of pace based on running styles.

Horses will conform to their preferred running styles. They will not conform to the handicapper's sense of order based on a set of contrived numbers.

Rferguson

09-05-2005, 12:46 PM

Looks like were getting way of the subject sombody start a Brohamer Thread

09-05-2005, 12:59 PM

Looks like were getting way of the subject sombody start a Brohamer Thread

Sometimes it goes that way, but if you start a new thread you kind of lose what was being talked about, so most just go with it whatever direction it takes.

Vegas711

09-05-2005, 06:05 PM

Here is exactly what Brohamer wrote in Bet With the Best:

I stand corrected.

46zilzal

09-05-2005, 07:35 PM

"Pace figures are invaluable when used by competent handicappers, but they will never replace a careful analysis of pace based on running styles.

Horses will conform to their preferred running styles. They will not conform to the handicapper's sense of order based on a set of contrived numbers."

In reality it is somewhere in between

John

09-05-2005, 07:45 PM

Yeah Cj, I think what Brohammer said, is realized by most Handicappers. When I say,to myself,think or feel, that #1 should have the lead. That does not make it happen.Horse are creatures of habit and most try to live up to there running style.

By the way CJ, I had a good day with pace figures on the turf .Closing day at Saratoga.

ezpace

09-06-2005, 01:28 PM

Brohammer 1st edition.. page 48.... with regard to running styles as fwiw..

%early these guys cleared it up for me.. sharp IMO

read very carefully

http://www.sports-bet-advantage.com/sartpro2.htm

ezpace

09-06-2005, 01:30 PM

this WIDE RANGING thread...

joeyspicks

09-06-2005, 07:38 PM

wow.......I wondered .....what the hell??? Are they STILL talking about Pizzolla's

.....marketing tactics ? ? ? :lol: :lol: :lol:

GLAD I WENT THROUGH IT ALL! Thanks.....a terrific refresher course !:ThmbUp:

Eurekabiz

11-04-2005, 11:52 AM

Can't seem to be able to get this system to pay for itself. But it may be because my husband and I were hoping it would be the black box we believe is out there. (Now we're starting to believe that if there IS such a black box, it ain't for sale! Maybe that lesson is what we paid $697 for!)

If anyone here would like to buy this system, please post a reply. Price will be very reasonable.

Thanks.

Eurekabiz (brand-new PA forum member)

Lefty

11-04-2005, 11:55 AM

Eureka, why didn't you take advantage of the money back guarantee?

Maxspa

11-04-2005, 12:39 PM

Eurekabiz,
If the price is right I'm interested.

Maxspa

Vegas711

11-04-2005, 06:28 PM

What is the latest results for the program? Did they use it at the seminar?

Eurekabiz

11-04-2005, 11:32 PM

On Friday, Oct. 14th, a reminder I set on my cell phone popped up, to remind me to ask my husband (who had used the program WAY more than I had) if he felt the Professional Handicapper software wasn't worth keeping and if he wanted to request a refund. That date was a week or two from the end of the 60-day evaluation period. At that time, he said yes, request a refund. So I figured I'd call MP's office early the next week. (I was the one who had ordered it.) But then, because the results he got over the next few days using only the "Pure Power Plays" (as Pizzola highly recommends), were not doing too badly, when I mentioned it again that next Tuesday, he seemed ok about keeping it. Then we lost several days of access to the 'net due to Hurricane Wilma, and then I gave up because I thought I had missed the deadline.

I also didn't ask for a refund because...
...I don't like confrontation;
...I'm not sure our less-than-anticipated re$ult$ are the software's fault or our fault;
...some weird part of me was saying "You deserve to lose your $697 for being such a dumb ass to order this!";
...I'm immobilized by the depression I feel from being so disappointed, embarassed, and angry about this.

Bottom line: During the entire 60-day period, we've constantly waffled back and forth about whether this software is worth its steep price. Our mood/attitude seems to match the results we get with the software: Using only the Pure Power Plays, the win rate seems to be 40-50%, which sounds impressive. But the final odds of most of the horses that do win are often below 3-1 (his recommended minimum for placing your WIN bet), so the payouts are nowhere near what the direct-mail marketing advertisement touts. We experienced a VERY SMALL percentage of $30 or higher win payouts.

Discussing this here has helped me decide that I WILL go ahead and request a refund. I'll either get my $ back or not, so I have nothing to lose by asking. I'll let y'all know how that plays out.

Thanks!

Eurekabiz

11-04-2005, 11:35 PM

I've decided to ask for a refund because I'm only a week or two beyond the 60-day evaluation period. (See the other message I just posted to this thread.) If Pizzola refuses, I will sell it. Should know more by early next week.

Thanks.

cato

11-05-2005, 01:36 AM

Eurekabiz:

There's no confrontation involved when the product comes with a money back guarantee. They are nice folks at Post Time. I've bought and returned a couple of products with Post Time and they have always been great.

Had you contacted them in time it would have been a breeze. Heck they may still give you the refund now.

Good luck, Cato

mhrussell

11-05-2005, 02:44 AM

Eurekabiz-

I agree with Cato. I know Michael and the folks at PTS well. If you want a refund, go ahead.. I would be very surprised if you had any problems with it being so close to the deadline.

However, I would recommend that you keep the software and use it as a 'companion' technique to your main handicapping methods. Look for confirmation situations where your methods and the Super Plays coincide; or when the Super Plays give you an advantage/insight into races you would otherwise pass (especially in light of Pick 3's or Pick 4's, etc.)

Dan Serra is a remarkable guy; and I think his approach a valuable asset to have in your arsenal. Every method has its cold periods. You are still way in the short run... don't be too easy to give up on this yet.

But it's your choice... and certainly don't feel 'embarassed' about it either way. TPH may just not fit your style of play.... no need to feel bad about that...

best,
Matt

"When Spring comes, the grass turns green of itself."

John

11-05-2005, 09:47 AM

My personal feelings is that all Pizzolla's stuff is geared for the west coast tracks and maybe Belmont and Saratoga. I tried his FUlCRUM methods at my local track and they did not work. More people attend and bet big tracks. So why not write a program for those tracks.

I don't know what tracks you and your husband Play. I like playing my local track. Like most people I got to know some owners/trainers. Jockeys etc.I feel comfortable playing my track.

Heck, I can't tell you how many programs I bought over the years and never got refunds.It's part of the learning process.

I doubt you will get your refund.These guys are pretty strong on refunds.

If you don't get a refund. Sell it for a considerable loss and forget about it.It is not the first software you will purchase and not like.We all have done just that.

MAXSPA,is the first to show an interest at a reduced price. I think it is fair of you to consider him first and then whoever else.

Good luck :)

cato

11-05-2005, 01:56 PM

I don''t think Pizzolla's stuff is geared to Calif tracks at all. It's pace handicapping and my experience is that I see pace play a more important role just about everywhere than in Calif (especially with the minimal fields in CA). I love it on east coast tracks, including Del and PHA and the NY tracks.

Not sure what you mean about trying the fulcrum stuff and it doesn't work. Its not intended as any kind of stand alone handicapping method or system. The fulcrum concept a small part of a much bigger pace and positional issue + value.

Not here to fight about this, just have a different experience.

Glad you have developed a system that works for you at your track--that's about all we can ask for

Take care, Cato

kingfin66

11-05-2005, 02:21 PM

I play mostly west coast tracks using TMM. The only problem I run into is finding enough races to play. Being a value oriented player, I'm looking for big fields and favorable pace scenarios. With the SoCal tracks, this leaves me with turf races and maidens. I don't play the 6.5 downhill at Santa Anita, thus, my play is limited even more. TMM works great at SoCal, you just have to exercise a lot, and I mean a lot, of patience.

Niko

11-05-2005, 04:32 PM

I bought The Professional Handicapper and ended up returning it because it wasn't quite what I was looking for. We all have our unique personality styles that transfer over to handicapping.
The only reason I gave it a try was because of the 60 day return (I could give it a good look over) and it was from Posttime. I've dealt with ITS-Posttime and I've been very happy with them in the past. The products Pizzolla has put out have helped me over the last couple years and I'll continue to buy from them and keep the majority of them.
If you would've returned it in time I'm positive you would've gotten a refund like I did. If I was the seller I doubt I'd honor anything after 60 days, (where do you draw the cut-off line) but you could try.

Tom

11-05-2005, 07:05 PM

Actually, Mikey was East coast - NYRA born and bred when he developed his methods. He present the fulcrum while still playing the Big A tracks..and every other track he could play as well.

I think you'll find TMM will work really well at Finger Lakes....sure used to do good when I was using it there.

keenang

11-05-2005, 10:34 PM

I HAVE NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY ANYONE MAKING A LOT OF MONEY BETTING THE HORSES WOULD EVEN TAKE THE TIME TO WRITE A BOOK OR A PROGRAM.IN ALL THE YEARS I LIVED IN LAS VEGAS I ONLY MET ONE PERSON WHO MADE LOTS AND LOTS OF MONEY. BUT HE NEVER WROTE A BOOK OR TRIED TO SELL HIS IDEAS(HE DIDN'T HAVE TO). HE WOULD NOT EVEN GIVE A HINT AS TO WHAT HE WAS DOING AND WE PLAYED MANY AND MANY ROUNDS OF GOLF TOGETHER AT THE OLD SUNRISE GOLF CLUB. HE WOULD ALWAYS SAY HE WAS JUST LUCKY.I KNOW IF I COULD MAKE A TON OF MONEY ON A SYSTEM I DON'T THINK I WOULD WORRY ABOUT WRITING A BOOK OR PROGRAM.
JUST MY THOUGHTS.
GENE

Lefty

11-06-2005, 12:09 AM

Gene, my thghts are these guys don't make a ton of money, but even if they did, gambling not a steady paychck venture and a little extra income might be a nice safety net. Also, some people like to let the world know how smart they are; i.e. ego trip. Just my opinion.

keenang

11-06-2005, 09:32 AM

LEFTY;
I THINK YOU ARE ABSOLUTLY RIGHT.
GOOD RACING LUCK
GENE

Maxspa

11-06-2005, 11:38 AM

Keenang,
Perhaps it is part ego and part giving back to the sport or business. When one accomplishes something important in their field of endeavor it is often through a great deal of trial, tribulation, dedication and hard labor! There's usually not a lot of notoriety during the formative work period. Late nights and missed activities are the price one pays for accomplishments. When the primary goal is reached, often the person needs new challenges and this sometimes results in new publications and\or software.
Somehow handicapping is viewed as a closed individual approach and sharing is not tolerated because it will affect the price etc. In my way of thinking, we as handicappers miss a golden opportunity when we isolate ourselves. One of the most positive learning experiences I had as a handicapper was when I shared insights and opinions with Trijack, Gary O and four other handicappers for a complete race meet.
In summary, I'm glad some people recognize there are many ways to handicap and that a book, software, system or idea sharing won't have a detrimental effect on making a profit. In fact it may even encourage more people to participate in horse racing and keep our sputtering sport alive and well monitored!!!
Maxspa