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turfbar
07-31-2005, 09:44 AM
Why is Bill Mott back on top. I had a coversation with a friend who had an insight on it,that I will tell later, but was curious to some feedback from PA forum.
Thanx
Turfbar

Figman
07-31-2005, 10:26 AM
Read the story "Poor Ol' Bob McNair" (Stonerside Stable).
It says that Mott has changed his training operation!
No more private track training.
http://tinyurl.com/7ts3v

PaceAdvantage
07-31-2005, 06:20 PM
My spidey sense tells me it's going to be Turfbar's theory that Mott is "back on top" because of the crack down on "juicers" and new detention barn policies....if that's the case, expect me to jump back into this thread, because I will disagree with you Turfbar....

Moving this thread to "General Racing Discussion"

cj
07-31-2005, 06:25 PM
So PA, how'd that investigation of the Dutrow/Rodriguez winners this meet go? Did you notice the change in modus operandi?

Case in point, 1st at Saratoga, winner was claimed for 40k, has run back and won twice, but both for lower prices with similar figures to pre-claim races.

GeTydOn
07-31-2005, 06:39 PM
It's not unusual for Dutrow runners to move up and down the claiming ladder. That outfit puts em where they belong for a win.

PaceAdvantage
07-31-2005, 06:39 PM
Haven't done any investigations yet. I find it curious though, that these guys continue to win at impressive rates, regardless of the class moves, both pre and post "crackdown."

cj
07-31-2005, 06:47 PM
Fair enough, but there is a big difference in claiming horses and stepping them up and having them win races than there is in claiming horses and dropping them and having them win races. Heck, the guy everyone hates did this all the time and was crucified for it.

Of course its not unusual for him to move horses up and down, but what has happened to the "miracle" improvements that always seemed to be caused by fixing horse's backs or breathing problems? Did those procedures suddenly stop working at Belmont?

GeTydOn
07-31-2005, 06:54 PM
I don't know what "miracles" you speak of. But Dutrow is one of the rare claiming trainers who will reach in and claim a horse then bench that horse for whatever length of time. He'll drop for the win, he'll raise for the win. Bottom line, his win-percent has remained solid at a time when many people probably expected a big ol goose egg.

PaceAdvantage
07-31-2005, 06:55 PM
Good poiints CJ. However, what we usually see in cases like this, is that the outfit simply fades into obscurity, never to be heard from again in any meaningful way....

GeTydOn
07-31-2005, 06:58 PM
Meanwhile back to Mott: Is it really that odd for a trainer to cycle in-and-out of form? It happens to many in many facits of this wild game. But the real question is: Is Mott really back on top? Combine Dutrow & Rodriquez at Belmont Spring and they ran away with the meet over what would have been a close race for 2nd.

cj
07-31-2005, 07:00 PM
I don't know what "miracles" you speak of. But Dutrow is one of the rare claiming trainers who will reach in and claim a horse then bench that horse for whatever length of time. He'll drop for the win, he'll raise for the win. Bottom line, his win-percent has remained solid at a time when many people probably expected a big ol goose egg.

If you don't know of the miracles I speak of, I don't know which horse racing you have been following. For at least a year, I witnessed Dutrow claim horses and immediately ascend the ladder, earning much higher figures from Beyer, TG, and about anyone else I can think of. Maybe they just can't find anymore horses with bad backs! :lol:

You are correct PA, these types usually go away. I guess it depends if they still make the owners money.

By the way, how is Bobby Frankel doing this year?

CryingForTheHorses
07-31-2005, 07:39 PM
My spidey sense tells me it's going to be Turfbar's theory that Mott is "back on top" because of the crack down on "juicers" and new detention barn policies....if that's the case, expect me to jump back into this thread, because I will disagree with you Turfbar....

Moving this thread to "General Racing Discussion"

Here we go with the "juice" crap again!
PA This man is a remarkable trainer and just didnt have the stock he has had in previous years,Nowadays its kind of amusing to see the sales results, ALL the top owners competing against each other to see who can gobble up the choice babies,Bill has got the stock this year.I am still not convinced a "Milkshake" will make your horse win,WHAT if every horse in a certain race had a milkshake? If you dont have the horse..you arent going to win!!.I know this guy , I know how he runs his shed, Hell I even worked in the same shed as him when he worked for Jack Vanberg in Chicago, To even think the so called"Juicers" had something to do with this, I think its a wrong view.

PaceAdvantage
07-31-2005, 07:41 PM
I think we agree McSchell (although, I can't be absolutely sure....LOL)

And if turfbar doesn't come back on this thread and say he thinks Bill Mott is "back on top" again because of the crack down on juicers, then this will all be for naught....LOL

CryingForTheHorses
07-31-2005, 07:46 PM
Haven't done any investigations yet. I find it curious though, that these guys continue to win at impressive rates, regardless of the class moves, both pre and post "crackdown."

Geeze PA!! Think Evil Do Evil!
I bet his vet bill looks like as Jackie Collins novel

PaceAdvantage
07-31-2005, 07:48 PM
Geeze PA!! Think Evil Do Evil!
I bet his vet bill looks like as Jackie Collins novel

I'm not sure I follow. In any event, McSchell, I think we agree, although I'm not sure you're seeing it this way....LOL

CryingForTheHorses
07-31-2005, 07:58 PM
I'm not sure I follow. In any event, McSchell, I think we agree, although I'm not sure you're seeing it this way....LOL

Ok PA I will give a prime example of a R Duttrow horse as I have a horse he used to have!..When this horse ran for him he was a bear, The horse was claimed off him and the other guy couldnt hit the board in 10 trys.I calimed this horse as he had blackclass,I did what RD would have done and got beat a whisker on the raise 13 in front of the 3rd horse.I have had 2 seconds in 4 races with him. Your theary of "juicing" has gone out the door.If you know what to do with your horse you will win provided everything goes well in the race

kenwoodallpromos
07-31-2005, 09:27 PM
I think PA is agreeing with you that at least some trainers can play by the rules and still win.
Mott- You can use words like "hot, cold, form, cycles" if you do not know the actual reasons behind something. :jump:

PaceAdvantage
07-31-2005, 10:38 PM
Ok PA I will give a prime example of a R Duttrow horse as I have a horse he used to have!..When this horse ran for him he was a bear, The horse was claimed off him and the other guy couldnt hit the board in 10 trys.I calimed this horse as he had blackclass,I did what RD would have done and got beat a whisker on the raise 13 in front of the 3rd horse.I have had 2 seconds in 4 races with him. Your theary of "juicing" has gone out the door.If you know what to do with your horse you will win provided everything goes well in the race


DUDE, RE-READ WHAT I HAVE WRITTEN HERE CAREFULLY. I AM ON YOUR SIDE ON THIS ONE!!!

It frustrates the hell out of me when people post because of pre-conceived notions about another poster, and NOT because of what is ACTUALLY BEING WRITTEN!!

READ!

kenwoodallpromos
07-31-2005, 11:22 PM
I just checked the record for William Morey (not Mott) since May 11 at GGF and the N. CA fairs- Morey has 27 wins in 62 starts! I'm sure they are shippers from down south, But I think that is still very good.

turfbar
07-31-2005, 11:32 PM
My spidey sense tells me it's going to be Turfbar's theory that Mott is "back on top" because of the crack down on "juicers" and new detention barn policies....if that's the case, expect me to jump back into this thread, because I will disagree with you Turfbar....

Moving this thread to "General Racing Discussion"

Well you are right on,I thought it was a plausible explanation
but now waitng for your theory.
Turfbar

PaceAdvantage
08-01-2005, 02:05 AM
Is Mott really back on top? If it wasn't for Dutrow's suspension (and subsequent running of Dutrow's horses in another trainer's name), Mott would not have won the Belmont title....he kind of won it by default.

Mott has his usual string of good turf runners....doesn't really have any stars in his stable....

To be honest, I don't have a theory of why he's back on top, because I don't think he's on top....just his usual self....

He hasn't had a champion since 1998, but did win the 2001 Saratoga training title, so it's not like he shriveled up and died the past 5 years...

I just think that a lot has changed for Mott in the last 5-7 years, including the death of Allen Paulson and assistant trainer Simon Bray leaving in early 1999.

I think those two events had a bigger impact on Mott than having to compete against "juice" trainers.

Do you actually think juicers and cheating trainers are something new? When Mott was winning everything in sight in the 90s, do you think there weren't any cheating trainers? No juicing? No milkshakes?

I've been hearing the term "juice" since I started playing this game back in 1987. This isn't some new phenomenon. This is why I don't agree that the reason Mott is "back on top" is because of the recent addition of detention barns.

Is it possible? Sure, anything is possible....but I doubt it....

Valuist
08-01-2005, 10:24 AM
No question Dutrow would've run away with the title if not for the suspension. One theory on Mott: his barn is very turf oriented and both Bel and Sar lost quite a few grass races to rain in recent years. I think it was 2003 when it seemed like it rained every day at Belmont.

As for Simon Bray, I think he'd like everyone to believe he "made" Mott.

alysheba88
08-01-2005, 11:01 AM
My spidey sense tells me it's going to be Turfbar's theory that Mott is "back on top" because of the crack down on "juicers" and new detention barn policies....if that's the case, expect me to jump back into this thread, because I will disagree with you Turfbar....

Moving this thread to "General Racing Discussion"

I think thats a logical conclusion. As the crooks and cheaters win percentages go down, the honest trainers will go up. Yes cheating has gone on for decades, but think until recently it was more prevalent then back in the 80's. Remember back in the 80's there was no lasix even in NY for a period. And most people believe lasix helps cover up other drugs.

turfbar
08-01-2005, 12:31 PM
hey u guys very interesting feedback thanx
and i do have sumtin to say about it all but
im trying to handicap Saratoga's monday card and its late and haven't even downloaded yet, but soon I have many THOUGHTS SEE YA
Turfbar

kenwoodallpromos
08-01-2005, 01:54 PM
Some people who cannot figure out reasons why things chane assume things never change but just run in streaks or they find excuses like "juicer trainers".
The only only things in racing that does not change is losers' mindset and handicapping!
If you can figure out why things change you can adapt.

turfbar
08-01-2005, 08:43 PM
hey u guys very interesting feedback thanx
and i do have sumtin to say about it all but
im trying to handicap Saratoga's monday card and its late and haven't even downloaded yet, but soon I have many THOUGHTS SEE YA
Turfbar

Well, guys(trainers) juice simple as that ,and we can't be privy to such knowledge
example that guy admitted he milkshaked martins horse, im not kissing Bill Motts ass but it is plausable he could be on the staright and narrow and these others guys all of sudden surged pass him ,but seriously he was off the radar screen
Bailey didn't always cover his mounts, but now is back last week he crushed on turf at ARL and paying decent prices . So, does anybody remember Peter Ferriola
at AQU and BEL what happened to him, and of couse the legendary Oscar Barrera do you all remember his trick until he got "caught",just funny when the security barns are tight looks like the
old guys are back another example Mike Hushion well just my thoughts
thanx Turfbar

andicap
08-01-2005, 10:36 PM
Read the story "Poor Ol' Bob McNair" (Stonerside Stable).
It says that Mott has changed his training operation!
No more private track training.
http://tinyurl.com/7ts3v

My sense in reading that rag of a tipsheet is that it is pretty much designed to be tongue in cheek -- most of it appears satirical. Probable that story you quote is apocryphal.

alysheba88
08-02-2005, 07:34 AM
Some people who cannot figure out reasons why things chane assume things never change but just run in streaks or they find excuses like "juicer trainers".
The only only things in racing that does not change is losers' mindset and handicapping!
If you can figure out why things change you can adapt.

Why is the assumption always seem to be that those who recognize and admit juicing is part of the game have a "losers mindset". Not just talking about your post. Have seen something similar written numerous times on various forums. To me the "loser" is someone who is closeminded and refuses to admit the realities of the game. Sure people can get sidetracked and see conspiracies everywhere and let it adversely affect their handicapping. It happens. But I see that happen far more with those who constantly cry about bad jockey rides or bad stewards decisions. Who always look for someone else to blame. I wont complain that "the juice beat me", because in looking at the race I should have a decent idea of who the juicers are and factor that in. This reminds me so much of the baseball situation. Where fans and pundits are still in complete denial about the problem. Racing needs a Jose Canseco

turfbar
08-02-2005, 09:31 AM
Why is the assumption always seem to be that those who recognize and admit juicing is part of the game have a "losers mindset". Not just talking about your post. Have seen something similar written numerous times on various forums. To me the "loser" is someone who is closeminded and refuses to admit the realities of the game. Sure people can get sidetracked and see conspiracies everywhere and let it adversely affect their handicapping. It happens. But I see that happen far more with those who constantly cry about bad jockey rides or bad stewards decisions. Who always look for someone else to blame. I wont complain that "the juice beat me", because in looking at the race I should have a decent idea of who the juicers are and factor that in. This reminds me so much of the baseball situation. Where fans and pundits are still in complete denial about the problem. Racing needs a Jose Canseco

Whoa wait a minute the baseball comparison is way off maybe this belongs in another part of this forum , no similarity what so ever, as a matter of fact who cares if baseball players juice really it is such a non-issue, and me personally can't believe anybody pays any attention to it, it really is quite a distraction, horse races have been fixed ever since...., but I love the game and will continue to play it even though there are these negatives, just blowing off some steam.

alysheba88
08-02-2005, 09:43 AM
Whoa wait a minute the baseball comparison is way off maybe this belongs in another part of this forum , no similarity what so ever, as a matter of fact who cares if baseball players juice really it is such a non-issue, and me personally can't believe anybody pays any attention to it, it really is quite a distraction, horse races have been fixed ever since...., but I love the game and will continue to play it even though there are these negatives, just blowing off some steam.

You basically proved my point. You said "who cares" regarding baseball cheating. Which is what many baseball fans say. Just like many horse racing fans downplay the cheating that goes on and basically take the same "who cares" approach. People love the game and will put up with much and will cover up and make excuses for the ills. And lambast those who want to clean it up.

kenwoodallpromos
08-02-2005, 01:04 PM
"Why is the assumption always seem to be that those who recognize and admit juicing is part of the game have a "losers mindset". "
The reason I said "Some" and did not use the word "Always" is because there is a world of difference between recognizing that rules violations by doping exists and constantly blaming losses on them or purposly exaggerating them.
I posted the NTRA study twice and anyone can look up violators on numerous racing board sites. I lump exaggeration of bad jockey rides, bad steward calls, all hot and cold streaks together. They are excuses, nothing more.
I allow 5% extra profit marging for unusual endings to races at that covers it. If I did not I would not have to be so picky about my picks.
The best example I use is that Andy Beyer said in "Picking Winners" in 1988 that you cannot win with his figures alone- he blamed it on depressed payoffs but at least he recognizes you have to adjust you thinking and handicapping to fit the race and/or racing changes. Even equine medical changes causes certain horses to be able to win after various length layoffs that could not before.
I agree with you definition of "Mindset".
Even system sellers recognize they have to tweak their stuff so it seems like they are keeping up with the times.
I like reading handicapping anf training books from decades ago just to see what changes and what stayed the same.
Now- Who bets Evangeline the same as last meet? Who bets ALL th races at Santa Rosa the same as last year, before they had a turf track? Who changes there methods since CJ invented his stuff?

GeTydOn
08-02-2005, 03:28 PM
Can someone explain how Mike Hushion is an example? An example of what?

turfbar
08-03-2005, 07:23 AM
Can someone explain how Mike Hushion is an example? An example of what?
check the Belmont trainer standings for this year.

turfbar
08-24-2005, 09:28 PM
Hey men
Did anybody see the winner of the 9th race at Saratoga today?
While they need a search warrant to find Offlee Wild from saturday.
Not to bring up the "juicer" trainers again, but Bill Mott just chalked his
8th winner of the meet, wonder why Todd's not killing them this year,
oh yea to my "friend " out thier the horse had Tongue strap on with
(can I make it any easier) 1st time lasix!!!!!!

Turfbar

kenwoodallpromos
08-24-2005, 10:10 PM
Not to bring up drugs again but maybe it was to keep the officials from seeing the nitroglycerin tablet under its tounge!LOL!

turfbar
08-24-2005, 10:19 PM
Not to bring up drugs again but maybe it was to keep the officials from seeing the nitroglycerin tablet under its tounge!LOL!

You are saying that
give me one example of that
you really said that:eek:
Turfbar

46zilzal
08-24-2005, 10:43 PM
Here we go with the "juice" crap again!
PA This man is a remarkable trainer and just didnt have the stock he has had in previous years.
Bingo..without the Paulson influence he doesn't have the stock

PaceAdvantage
08-25-2005, 02:20 AM
I'd buy the line that Mott is "winning again because of the crackdown on crooked trainers" if it weren't for the fact that he has been a very successful trainer in the past.

And in the past, there were plenty of crooked trainers / juicers in NY.

So, I still don't buy it....Mott ain't not slouch, no matter WHO is cheating. He's going to win his fair share, no matter what.

Mott's won a bunch of Saratoga titles, including one a few years ago, when crooked trainers were probably at "maximum juice"

Like I said, I don't buy the argument, but that's just me....

andicap
08-25-2005, 08:14 AM
I agree with PA. What, they just started juicing horses within the last couple of years? That's crazy.

turfbar
08-25-2005, 09:10 AM
I'd buy the line that Mott is "winning again because of the crackdown on crooked trainers" if it weren't for the fact that he has been a very successful trainer in the past.

And in the past, there were plenty of crooked trainers / juicers in NY.

So, I still don't buy it....Mott ain't not slouch, no matter WHO is cheating. He's going to win his fair share, no matter what.

Mott's won a bunch of Saratoga titles, including one a few years ago, when crooked trainers were probably at "maximum juice"

Like I said, I don't buy the argument, but that's just me....

I am in some agreement with you, I agree Mott is no slouch
but the other trainers just aren't winning at as fast a clip as before the security barn, like the old saying "only creme and bastards rise".

xfile
08-25-2005, 01:57 PM
Why is Bill Mott back on top. I had a coversation with a friend who had an insight on it,that I will tell later, but was curious to some feedback from PA forum.
Thanx
Turfbar

lol...are the GHOSTS of the Barerra brothers visiting his barn? :D Those 2 make that old man on tv selling juice machines look silly.....lol.....Somebody in this thread below mentioned Dutrow...isn't he winning at over a 40% clip SINCE coming off suspension?. Ok how do we read into all of this...or should we? Some are more talented than others. Baffert has a horse running at the Spa Saturday won his last 2 races and the 3rd race back the horse was eased. I've seen Baffert horses do this quite often. Bobby has some magic....or did...maybe he's been laying low. Are some of these guys just that much better? Sort of like in other sports? There's always dominant players in every game. In our game it goes deeper than the player (the horse) as it goes to the trainer and even the jockey and even sometimes the owner. Tis a tangled web we weave in this business...eeehhhhhhh??:cool:

andicap
08-25-2005, 06:06 PM
I'm not accusing anyone of anythting but there are so many other drugs, designer steriods, etc. that the chemists can't detect yet that the "juicing" trainers could still be using them. I think a lot of this stuff from the racing industry is PR/marketing to enhance public confidence.