Handling a 'winning' streak

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Ah those in-frequent winning streaks where every wager comes up a winner,as you win every photo, benefit from race rivals trouble trips. etc.The question is how do you react to this periods of time where the winners seem to jump off the page of your racing form?

(1) you maximise this fortunate time frame and gradually increase your wagers to benefit in terms of profit.

(or)

(2) You pull back your wagers with a certain bit of feeling that the percentages will turn against this current winning streak.

(or)

(3) you continue with your regular betting format as if it is a normal period of betting activity.


My self, I tend to wrap up my betting during these winning clusters negating any serious windfall profits. I've tried to change this habit, but it is still a working project.

Any comments on this subject would be of great interest. thank you Zappi

[kenwoodallpromos]

Because I know what the long-term numbers are.
When I increase my betting it is because I have found a new type of bet I can handicap well enough.
I still have to adjust my systems once in a while to fit certain situations, like off tracks.

[Secretariat]

Zappi,

Good question. Generally, it's the other question.. "How do i handle a losing streak?" which by the way is much more difficult in my opinion.

Lou Holloway use to advise "quit on the downturn of an upswing". In other words, feel free to increase your stake until your losses fall below your "downturn" definition. I knew one successful player who did this on a regular basis. He knew his winners came in clusters from his records, and when he noticed his stakes rising, and felt confident, he would "define a downturn", and when it came, he pulled back, and pocketed profits. Another guy I know "builds in a personal take" in his bank where he takes out a percentage of each win for his "personal bank".

Whatever works for your psychology. I'd be interested in how you handle a losing streak Seems there are lots of balancing here. (a) Number of planned races to play (b) Anticipated profit over that time (c) Stress measurements of inabiltiy to reach those limits comfortably (i.e. having to raise stakes to increased blood pressure levels, etc.) (d) accepted loss parameters (e) emotional comfort level.

Those aspects are tough. I know one guy that if he does not win early (the first 3 or 4 races, he really pushes, and sometimes is broke before the late races. if he doesn't bet as large as previous races he finds the races less interesting, and even when he hits reminds himself that it would have been so much more if he had bet more. Frankly, the guy is a wreck, and a friend so I feel sorry for him. He bets infrequently, and hence feels a need to win "every day". A tough challenge for anybody.

Anyway, your question about winning streak is interesting. Made me think. I'm sure others on this board will expand with thier ideas.

[how cliche]

It's an interesting question worth answering. I have set amounts of $ per day that I wager win or lose. How much I play on a single individual is 1/3, 2/3 or full. Occasionally, very occasionally, I bet much more. 500-700% of my normal daily bankroll. But only when it's a thoroughly researched horse that I've proven beyond a reasonable doubt will win. *Knock on wood*... I've never lost a bet of that nature. When I get hot on my regular bets, however...I make time to find more days to play. I'll buy pp's every day and instead of reading a book for an hour before I go to sleep and the paper for 1/2 hour when I wake up. I'll look for a spot or two as much as possible. By not modifying the base $ amount but playing more, I never feel uncomfortable with what I'm doing. Besides that's what being hot is about to me...I can't wait to pick apart the next puzzle and make plays, day after day. If I must, I put them in online, come home from work and watch the replay show to see how I did. If I lose three days in a row, I go back to being just a weekend warrior. To sum it up, this works for me, but do what it is that enables YOU to make more profit. For me it's playing more often. For you it might be betting more on a single race. To each his own.

Take the Del Mar Contest, for example. I've been backing my plays every day my horse is 4-1 or better at post time. I find that I play better and try harder when I back up my selections. Such was the case when I finished 12th, 60th & 64th in the Marathon contests at Santa Anita in '03, '04, & '05 as well as when I ran 5th in the '05 Oak Tree Contest. Look it up at the Del Mar site. My name(s), Plan9(current) and howcliche(past), are still up there. It really does help & I advise that everyone playing in the contest do the same. It really does make you concentrate A LOT more than if it's "just another contest." Fwiw, this is the first time I've been backing my plays at any other track besides Santa Anita, because I have an edge there that I do not at other SoCal venues. It could very well catch up to me...Anyway, Most of these selections have been at the 1/3 level or $20 to win. I've picked 4 winners in 9 races so far. Can I expect to continue at that rate? Of course not. I've lost 2 in a row. But I think it's a good idea to just play it out. It'll come and go. It always does.

[acorn54]

i have always found percentage of bankroll betting to be the best approach.
it is mechanical free from emotions and the bets are larger when i am winning and they are smaller when i am l osing
acorn

[Hosshead]

Zappi, First, before the money managment.......
How are you selecting your picks/bets?
A. Mechanical (system) selection.
B. Subjective decisions involving your "gut" feeling.

[hurrikane]

Daily I play percent of bankroll. As much as possilble remover the emotion out of your betting.

You can get emotional about your selection if you like but when it comes time to bet you would do better take all emotion out of the game. IMO this is why some people just can't bet football, and other sports too. They get emotionally involved in the outcome.

there are other methods that seem to take advantage of winning streaks, or more likely reduce losees during losing streaks. I haven't tested them so I don't use them.

Dave Swartz has some interesting thoughts on betting structure. maybe he will post some ideas.

[Zman179]

I choose 3.

Usually when I win, I'll conserve profits. Because there is nothing better than going to the races and winning a month's free rent.

[nobeyerspls]

Zappi - good post and good question.

I always bet the same amount because my "streaks", up or down, are spaced over a longer period. That's because I skip so many races.

Many years ago I worked for a bank, representing them on the road. They wouldn't pay me a commission for the business I brought in so I made up my own. Whatever town I was in I made calls in the morning and went to the track in the afternoon. I had an out of body experience at Sportsman's Park in Chicago, winning the first seven races with a few niced priced horses involved. I started betting $10 per race and then gradually reduced it because I thought the streak would end. Got down to $2 per race for the last two. Since then I've always bet the same amount and I've never come close to that many consecutive winners.

[twindouble]

I almost laughed when I read the post but on second thought it made sense because it can effect some peoples play and if they let it their handicapping.

I look at it this way, a winning streak can with some send the ego to unrealistic hights, then comes the crash because of poor dicisions. You don't "handle" a winning streak, you go with flow. It has nothing to do with the race in hand, winning and loosing is part of the game, take it with a grain of salt. Stick to what you do best, hopefully that's handicapping and everything else will work out.

Good luck,

T.D.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Very thought provoking and informative replies. Like i stated this winning period is IMO worth serious self relection in order to become a real tough player. Basically. IT'S ALL YOU. you as an active thinking horseplayer are aware of the pitfalls that exist when playing for parimutual profits. The losing streaks are more frequent in the course of a year,and are of great importance,but the winning streaks are an area we should be giving our utmost attention.

thanks for the replies and make money. Zappi

[mhrussell]

Zappi...

I try not to change a thing. Don't get too high on a winning streak nor feel like a total dope when things are not going well. Just keep doing good work on races that are worth your time and construct good value bets.

Easier said. It is the hardest thing to maintain your mental/emotional balance under either extreme.

[kev]

I've been hitting real good of late, but maybe about 3 weeks ago I couldn't lose anything, even though alot of my horses were running 2nd I was taking down the ex's with them. I only bet on sat, and sometimes sunday's, but when I was hitting then I started to bet threw the week also. So I guess I picked up the pace a little bit, but I didn't bet that much more on those races though. :sleeping:

[Dave Schwartz]

Perhaps this old article of mine will help?

http://www.horsestreet.com/freestuff/articles/OffCenter/index.html


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[twindouble]

Perhaps this old article of mine will help?

http://www.horsestreet.com/freestuff/articles/OffCenter/index.html


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave; I took the time to read your center off center article and I agree with the psychology involved. I said take winning and loosing with a grain of salt, in other words don't let it effect your game plan or your handicapping. Your in-depth explaination on center off center makes it more palatable. Excellent article.

On managing your backroll, I've always said and I do cut out money when I'm winning and I make it a point never to go home broke. Here again you at least give those that don't do it a tool to work with. I don't know how many times I asked my friends, "why are your broke when you were ahead $600 or more after 5 races?" I don't keep records per-say, I know where I stand all the time when it comes to my bankroll, don't take that long to add it up. I have an account set up at my bank just for that purpose in addition to what I carry in cash.

I have to add, I take this game seriously, so every now and then I'll go all out and just have some fun with friends at the track for awhile. Including what ever comes after. It's like getting away from the grind, even durring those periods sometimes I get lucky. The last couple weeks it's been in the war room.

Good Luck,

T.D.