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Bubbles
07-26-2005, 11:43 AM
Analysis for Wednesday is as follows...

1st: Steeplechase. No way.

2nd: Can't see any value. Not worth it.

3rd: The 1 entry (full brother to Ghostzapper) seems to be the class of the field, but underneath, the 9 might provide some exotics value, with Bailey aboard at 8-1 ML odds.

4th: The 4 will be overbet, and should bounce off a big-time time at BEL last out. A hot pace should result from a ton of speed, and the 1 should close from the rail to snatch it. For value, watch the 5, at 10-1 ML, to make a good effort while cutting back in distance.

5th: Wide-open 2YO maiden race. Nothing enticing that I can see, except for Velasquez and Pletcher teaming up on the 10. However, those works he has are not particularly enticing. Skip.

6th: A lot of inconsistency in this field. I like the 4, 5, and 6, and all three offer decent value in this turfer.

7th: Two big wildcard horses, the 1 and 2, coming off long layoffs ruin this race for me. Skip.

8th: This could be a stakes race at most tracks around the country. The 6 is dangerous, when you consider Velasquez/Pletcher and that runaway Jim Dandy win over this track last year. If the 1, at 6-1 ML, can handle the jump in class, he could pose a pace threat and produce nice prices underneath the winner.

9th: I like one part of the 1 entry to step up and win this stakes race. If one of the favorites is overbet, and the entry goes off anywhere around the ML value of 7/2, it's worth a bet.

10th: The Velasquez/Pletcher entry will be drastically overbet and is a false favorite despite his back class. I like the 3 and the 5, both at very nice odds (6-1 and 8-1). With a little luck, some money can be made by betting against the hot jockey/trainer combo.

Good luck all!

DJofSD
07-26-2005, 11:47 AM
Good luck.

It'll be fun to see which has a larger handle for respective opening days and total for the meetings, DMR or SAR.

DJofSD

WaHoo
07-26-2005, 06:57 PM
Sar 07/27

1r- 1 3x 1a 2b 5 (5 12:1 contender)

2r-1a 1 2b 5 2 4 (1 short price)

3r-8 3 7 2 maiden
4 fts price $975k
1 & 1a trainer win % 32%
9 2nd race tr win% 31%

4r-6 2 5 4 3 (contenders #5 10:1 #2 5:1)

5r-8 6 5 9 maiden
1- cost $400k trainer win 18%
10- $300k tr 14%
2- $500k A+
3- $185k 10%
4- $180K 8%
7- $1000k 14% ped A+ ( A+ fts wins early)
9- 2nd out 25%

6r-1 3 7 1a 4 9 (9 12:1 contender)

7r- 1 4 7 2 3 (1 longshot)

8r-3 6 7 4 5

9r-3 2 7 1a 6 maiden
4- 75k trainer 18% ped A+
1 & 1a tr 23%

10r-1 9 10 14 15 16 5 3 (6 contender 8:1 longshot)
i put extra horses in case of scratches

chrisg
07-26-2005, 11:24 PM
r9 Adirondack

Exacta

Adieu over Truart

kenwoodallpromos
07-27-2005, 12:36 PM
Dutch everything 20-1 or longer!LOL!

Bubbles
07-27-2005, 04:00 PM
Three-for-three through the sixth, hope this keeps going into tomorrow, when I actually go up to BET! :lol:

chrisg
07-27-2005, 06:18 PM
r9 Adirondack

Exacta

Adieu over Truart

Outcome:

Truart ran 3rd, Adieu was 4th; I lost.

http://www.drf.com/pdfchart/SAR0727090.pdf

Bubbles
07-27-2005, 06:39 PM
3-of-5, with a correct prediction about two beaten favorites. Not a bad day.