Mountaineer and EVD Acceleration Ratings

[michiken]

Lets see if we can find some longshots using acceleration ratings. I caught a nice 98.00 winner at Evangeline last Friday using this method.

Make no bets. This is just for fun for finding some pace attackers and or false favorites.

[michiken]

Mountaineer:

R1) 10-9-5 : 2nd ranked horse wins $8.80

R2) 6-2-4 : Top 3 ranked boxed combine for $240 exacta, 2nd ranked holds 2nd place and pays $19.40

R3) 10-6-5 Top 4 picks combine for $59 per and $674 tri.

R4) Out

R5) 7-8-4 Top Ranked Wins $4.40

R6) 3/5 dead heat for win with the 7 third. Top 4 combine for $16.80 per and $163.80 tri. (Look at the favorite #2 decel at -30 was the worst in the field and should be a throwout even with very fast 1st and 2nd calls).

R7) 8-5-10 Top ranked wins $8.80 - With (4) early E horses ranked in the top 4, it was easy to see that not all of them would survive the pace. The 5 /9/1 closed to finish 2/3/4 as possibly seen by their final fraction.



Evangeline Results:

R1) 6-2-1 Top 3 combine for a chalky $9.40 exacta.

R2) 1-5-7 Top 3 combine for a chalky $45.20 Tri

R3) 7-6-2 4th ranked horse wins $48.80. 6 horse got a BAD ride. Top 4 boxed = $115.80 exacta.

R4) 5-1-8 2nd ranked wins $4.80. #6 was second betting choice at 7-2 but he was ranked 7th. Top ranked #7 didn't run a lick.

R5) 8-5-7 3rd ranked wins $6.00

R6) Mostly first time starters so no rating was even made. PASS.

[timtam]

Are these acceleration numbers something you are working with or are

they from a computer program? I took it that the races were in a graded

form with the top pick 1st,etc.

[socantra]

Could you define your tems please? What do you mean by "turn time acceleration"? Does your definition of acceleration include deceleration> How are you ranking final fraction?

I'm not asking for your specific formulas, though that would be nice. For your numbers to have any meaning at all though, the viewer needs some sort of reference do what is being measured.

In dirt racing, there is generally very little acceleration after the first call. I know the terms acceleration and deceleration are often used interchangeably. Is that the way you are using them?

This is not meant to be argumentative. I'm just not sure what you are looking at.

socabtra...

[michiken]

These ratings in the pdfs I posted are just something I am toying with... They are loosely based on Pace makes the race where internal velocities are calculated but I do them with bris figs cause it is simpler.

One of the reasons that I look at the internal fractions/velocities of a race is to hunt down horses that may have had some extra 'gas in the tank' so to speak and made internal moves while gaining on the pace. This move could of occured anwhere in the race, but normally it would be as the horse is running around the turn. The jockey is trying to position the horse to contend for the lead and so on.

This is what I call the 'Turn Time Acceleration' in my ratings. Since acceleration is the change in velocity over time, you could also think of it as increasing velocity rating. A positive + turn time i.e 9 indicates that a horse gained 9 points during the running of the race. A negative turn time i.e. -12 indicates that the horse actually lost points during the running of the race. This often occurs by lightning fast Early runners who do not know how to distribute their early speed. (I suppose I could just add 100 to these ratings to make the number format be simpler but the minus ratings simply indicate to me that the horse Lost Points).

Similarly, the final fraction rating is calculated using the pace call and speed figures. It is intended to show how the horse ran in the stretch. A positive final rating i.e. +2 simply means that the horse gained against the pace. A negative rating i.e. -20 means that the horse lost points.

Each rating calculated tweak of the bris pace and speed figures that I use. Over the years I noticed that the highest numbers were not always getting it done. I added these tweaks to help me rule out cheap speed even when the horse has the highest Pace figure and Speed Rating.

The figs help me see how the horse distributes it energy or how the pace scenario may develop. Sometimes it helps predict false favorites, bad form or stretch quitters. Since I work during the day, I tend to play the low class claimers at nite and needed to formulate some 'contender' rules to eliminate cheap speed, etc.

Here is an example of how the ratings were done for a sample 6 furlong race:

Horse #1 'Lickety Split'
Last Race: 5 1/2 furlongs (Stretching out to 6f today)
2f pace fig: 100
4f pace fig: 104
Speed fig: 81

Turn Time = (104 - 100) = +4
Final Fraction = (76-104) = -23

Horse #2 'Stealthy Capper'
Last Race: 8 furlongs (cutting back from 1 Mile)
2f pace fig: 78
4f pace fig: 85
6f pace fig: 92
Speed fig: 74

Turn Time = (85-78) = +7 (total points gained during the entire race at the equivalent calls 2f/4f of todays 6f distance).

Final Fraction = (92-85) = +7

Note: Speed fig at a route was never used in the cutback when calculating these ratings!

Now by looking at the raw numbers of 100 and 104 for 'Lickety Split' traditional handicapping methods would automatically peg this horse as a easy winner. He will easily get the lead and it appears that he can walk home to the wire. What about the Final Fraction Loss of -23? Does this indicate that the horse doesn't finish well?

If this was a 2 horse race, I am sure that 'Lickety Split' would probably get the job done. On the other hand, what if the jockey on 'Stealth Capper' knew he had a ton of horse in the tank and pressed the hell out of 'Lickety Split'? Who has the better chance of cracking in the stretch? (Sometimes I even see the high rated final fraction horse jump to the lead immediately and the early horse quits before the 2f pole).

Now take these 2 horse in context of a large Evangeline or Mountaineer 10 to 12 horse field. Add in some more pace pressure and guess who may have enough cohonas to run them down at the wire?

Go one step further and say the Odds on 'Lickety Split' are 4-5 and 'Stealth Capper' are '18-1'. Do you see who is the key horse now?

Using these ratings, sometimes you can see when a horse is at the wrong distance, i.e. if 'Lickety Split' was entered at a mile today, I would eliminate him as a contender. My guess is that the trainer is doing a route tightner workout.

Now throw in a monkey wrench. 'Lickety Split' is coming of a 90+ day layoff and his rating were from a race in hot dry August and this is the middle of December. Can the horse repeat those hot pace figs under these conditions?

Its funny because I see many of these types of horse go down in flames as beaten chalk at the tracks I play - even when they have superior figs. Sometimes it just pays to dig deeper to find a better price! I don't bet chalk.

Finally, Here is a text file of the race where I had the $98 winner. Can you spot him using these concepts?