View Full Version : Who buys The Sheets or Thoro-Graph?
jeebus1083
07-25-2005, 11:45 AM
I've heard that they are good, but are so damn expensive.
I buy the Ragozin sheets, and I do very well with them. I try to post my picks on their site as much as I can. Yes for one track it's like $30.00, but I don't play every race, so I buy one race here and one race there. You have to buy atless $15.00 worth, which is 3 races. I buy maybe 6 races a weekend. I went 3 out of 6 this weekend.....winners paying 12, 9, 7( which is on the low end, but oh well ). Alot of people think it's just about the number, it's more about the pattern's of the number's.
oddswizard
07-25-2005, 04:52 PM
The sheets are too expensive. The racing form has the same information if you know how to read the form. Basically the sheets show the form of the horses in a nice & computer read out. I agree with Steve Christ. The sheets simply give the big players more confidence in playing their selections. Pick more winners? I don't think so.
garyoz
07-25-2005, 05:34 PM
Hey oddswizard when have you used The Sheets and for how long? Sounds like you don't know much to me.
Steve C. What a joke, for him saying that. Let's see alot of the big player's and contest winner's are using their data, oh it must be confinence, pick more winner's?? I don't know about that either, but pick better price horses out, by far yes. Couple weekends ago I went 1 out of 6, but the one winner I had was R LADY JOY paying somehting like $37 something. :sleeping: Bring it.
cnollfan
07-25-2005, 10:28 PM
I am not a Sheets guy, but as publisher of DRF, Steven Crist is hardly an unbiased observer.
oddswizard
07-26-2005, 12:49 AM
You may be right. Maybe all I know is how to make my living at the races. I have a friend of mine who loves the sheets because he gets them free. However, he has never bested me at the races yet. I reviewed the sheets as I do every item about racing. The information simply did not impress me. I agree Steve Christ is a biased person but his statement hit home with me. I have won 3 handicapping contests. I know the sheets have won one contest. The point is this- If you can make money with the sheets, more power to you! It is a handicapping tool like Pace or Class. To me it is just too expensive for the data received. Good luck.
garyoz
07-26-2005, 07:28 AM
You may be right. Maybe all I know is how to make my living at the races. I have a friend of mine who loves the sheets because he gets them free. However, he has never bested me at the races yet.
Undoubtedly one of the many people that the Ragozin guys give The Sheets away to for free. A statement that the DRF "has the same information" as The Sheets shows that you don't understand The Sheets. The fact that they are a "computer readout" has little to do with The Sheets. Personally (and I'm certain many others on this Board) started using The Sheets/Thorograph when they were handwritten. The validity and reliability of the numbers and their use for form cycle analysis make them a unique product. I also think that the Xtra's should be included in the discussion of sheet products.
Jeebus1083, what I would suggest is opening an account with Tgraph and then make maximum use of the Redboard Room to download the product after the races to study how to use them.
A Thorograph user/drf user won the NTRA ( big daddy ) contest last year, and over the past week or so, another TG user won two contest..this from Jerry Brown."A big tip of the hat to TG customer Paul Shurman, who won the Bradley contest over the weekend, which sends him back to the NTRA finals.
Also congratulations to Paul Shurman, who won the Youbet contest the same day.
That's right, Paul won both. Since by rule he can only have one seat in Vegas, Paul gave up his Youbet title.
Which made the winner of that contest TG customers Michelle and Charlie Thompson, who will join Paul in Vegas. "
This from the Rag...site........Just because your better than your friend means nothing, maybe he doesnt know how to read them that well.
January 31, 2005 - Sheets User places 2nd in the Orleans World Series Handicapping Contest.
Congratulations to longtime Sheets customer Paul Kasselman on his second place finish in the Orleans World Series handicapping contest. Job well done!
January 3, 2005 - THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING. 2004 was another banner year for trainers and owners using the SHEETS.
Seven of the top fifteen and eighteen of the top one hundred trainers in money earned were SHEET customers and for the second straight year SHEET trainers ranked 1-2-3.
Five of the top fifteen and 14 of the top one hundred owners in money earned were SHEET customers, including the leading woman owner, Maggi Moss, who ranked number thirty.
In addition two of the top fifteen jockeys in money earned were SHEET customers.
We congratulate them all and are happy to be a part of their very successful year in racing.
September 1, 2004 - Contest Winners
Jared Hutt won the Freehold contest three Saturdays ago, and his father, Bob Hutt won the $30,000 handicapping contest at Monmouth this past weekend. Both are devout Ragozin Sheet handicappers and we wish them well as they go forward in the "big contests" coming up. Job well done by a classy father and son.
August 9, 200 - Big Weekend for The Sheets! -
Saturday was a super day for SHEETS trainers and owners. First, Bwana Charlie, trained by Steve Asmussen and managed perfectly by his assistant Scott blasi, win the Amsterdam at Saratoga. Then, Roses In May wins the Whitney. Roses In May is owned by Ken "pic six king" Ramsey and trained by Dale Romans, both Sheet clients. And finally, Herculated, trained by Mike Stidham, wins the Sea O'Erin stake at Arlington Park. Congratulations to all.
July 7, 2004 - Churchill Downs Leaders -
At the recently concluded Churchill Downs spring meet, Ken Ramsey won his nineth consecutive owners title at the track. The trainers battle came down to the wire, and Steve Asmussen edged out Dale Romans and Tom Amoss. All of the above are Ragozin Sheet customers. Job well done!
June 5, 2004 - Belmont Stakes Notebook (NY Post: 6/5/04)
Sizing up the opposition, Servis said he thinks this is a "very good group" of 3-year-olds.
"one of the biggest tools I use in my training and handicapping is the Ragozin [speed-rating] Sheets," he said. "I've compared them to last year's, and I thought this was a much better crop. With that being said, they seem to be a little erratic [running] big numbers and then bouncing off that.
"The thing I like so much about my horse is that his numbers have been very steady. He hasn't had one blowout race. Even in the Preakness, there wasn't a big change. When you get that big change, you worry about the bounce theory."
May 01, 2004 - Bonita Springs Sheet player hits superfecta for $41,380.20 in 2004 Kentucky Derby-
Part-time Bonita Springs resident Sammy Wayson hit the superfecta — correctly picking the top four finishers — in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby to win $41,380.20.
Wayson credited his success to the use of handicapping sheets written by New York’s Len Ragozin. “I wouldn’t go to the track without them. I’d be blindfolded.”
February 12, 2004 - A customer cashed this race last Sunday (02/07): Win $61.40, 1$ Exacta - $209.70; 1$ Trifecta - $1,539; 1$ Super - $18,375. Click here to see the Sheets for this race.
February 07, 2004 - Eclipse Award winner Jerry Bailey called Anderson "the best agent I've ever had." "Ron uses the Ragozin Numbers system better than anyone else," Bailey said. "He can determine 95% of the time when a horse will or will not run his A race. He doesn't ask me a whole lot to choose between horses, and I like that. It's one of the things I don't want to get involved in."
January 02, 2004 - Sheet Trainers, Jockeys lead the way: 2003 was another banner year for trainers and jockeys using the SHEETS. The top jockey, once again, and the 11th in money won were guided by longtime SHEET using agents Ron Anderson and Lenny Pike, respectively
12 of the top 50 trainers, including the top 3 and 4 of the top 10, used SHEETS regularly to enhance their winning ways.
We are pround that these top professionals use our numbers to help manage their successful operations and we congratulate them all.
December 01, 2003 - Congratulations to super jockey agent and Sheet user Ron Anderson, on Jerry Bailey's new record for stakes wins in a single season. (70 stakes and counting).
November 30, 2003 - Congratulations to Sheet user Jerry Crawford on Halory Leigh's 4 length win on November 30 at TP in the $50,000 Holiday Inaugural Stakes. After being claimed late spring for $80,000 on the advice of The Sheets office, Halory Leigh had won two CD allowance races and finished third once, and fourth twice (including The GR 1 Alabama) in her previous stakes tries, and has now earned about twice her purchase price and is looking for more-- we hope.
November 29, 2003 - O'Neill trained Fleetstreet Dancer claimed off the sheets in 2002. Fleetstreet Dancer, under jockey Jon Court at odds of 48-1, shocked favorite Admire Don to win the $2-Million Japan Cup Dirt by a nose at a drenched Tokyo race course on Saturday.
November 5, 2003 - Doug O'Neill eclipses Baffert's Oak Tree mark: Congratulations to Sheet customer Doug O'Neill on breaking Bob Baffert's record for most victories by trainer at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting.
October 16, 2003 - Two of our sheet players hit the pick six (worth $320,000) at Keeneland on Thursday. Both players had it for a dollar each. Congratulations to both.
September 1, 2003 - Saratoga: Sheets customer (who wishes to remain anonymous), hits PIC 6 worth $666,000.
August 9, 2003 - Joe Sweedler's French Charmer turned in an impressive performance at Laurel Park to win the $144,500 John D. Schapiro Memorial Breeder's Cup Handicap on August 2. Trainer Benson had cross-entered French Charmer in the $75,000 Battlefield Stakes on August 3 at Monmouth but opted to ship out of town for the bigger purse.
"Any [Ragozin] sheets player had a bet on him today," said Benson... "Joe told me 'Go for the $150,000. You
can't lose.' "
August 9, 2003 - DASHBOARD DRUMMER VALIDATES PURCHASE-
The new owners, which include Len Friedman of the Ragozin Speed Sheets, were already excited by the numbers Dashboard Drummer posted in Iowa.
With Iwinski on board, the purchase from Paulette and Bob Pogue went through.
His first start for the new barn was a smashing success as Dashboard Drummer ($10.80) rallied from far back on the speed-favoring sloppy track to win by 2 1/2 lengths over Deputy Storm, the 7-10 favorite.
August 2, 2003 - Congratulations to Sheets handicappers Bobby Brendler and Ken Daniels for their 2nd place finish in the Bally's Summer Stakes IV Contest, qualifying them for the NTRA Handicapping Championship to be held at Bally's in January 2004
June 25, 2003 - A Ragozin Sheets customer (who wishes to remain anonymous), was the sole winner of the one million plus pic 6 at CD. Congrats and job well done!
June 6, 2003 - At the just concluded Churchill meet, the top three trainers are all customers of the Sheets. Congrats to all three.
May 03, 2003 - Sheet player hits Derby day pic 6 @ CD: For an investment of just $288, he collected over $400,000
May 2003 - Frankel and the Bounce Theory - by Andrew Beyer
Jan 2003 - Our very own Len Friedman won the Suncoast Challenge handicapping contest (worth over $100,000).
2002 - We had 10 trainers in the top 50 trainers in by earnings. (2 of the 10 were in the top 10 by earnings).
2002 - We had 2 jockeys in the top 10 by earnings, as well as the leading rider in the nation.
Winning contests is a whole different ballgame from playing the horses on a regular basis and trying to make a profit. If you are in a contest or just playing a day or two a week, maybe it pays to shell out the $35 for a card or whatever combo of races you need, but to do this every day trying to grind out a profit betting horses, that is a big whole to start from.
Think about it, lets assume you play 5 days a week, 3 cards a day, 45 weeks a year, which I would think a pro would be pretty close to those levels. That is $50 a day, or a total of $11,250. I'm not saying its not worth it, but you better be betting big money to hope to overcome this.
Also, could someone explain how the "Race of the Week" could be about 0 for the last 50? They were close this week, but the second place horse hurt them big.
andicap
07-26-2005, 08:47 AM
Seem to me by tracking the trainers who use the Sheets you could indirectly handicap a race using the Sheets figuring that much of the time a trainer will enter the horse when he thinks he's going to peak a la his reading of the Sheets.
The above note also makes it clear that 5 people reading them can come up with 5 different horses. Or else a lot more people would have the longshots.
But another thing to warn about the Sheets. As a whole their odds are much depressed compared to a few years ago because many more people are using them and T-Graph. i would suggest people check out the Xtras because I doubt they are as popular and their odds might still hold. If you call their office they will send you past Xtras to try out, but you've got to read Cary Fotias' book. They are $20 a day with $10 at a few "special" tracks.
I haven't used them but loved the book.
cnollfan
07-26-2005, 09:40 AM
You've got to read Cary Fotias' book. They are $20 a day with $10 at a few "special" tracks. I haven't used them but loved the book.
Is that book "Blinkers Off", or does he have another one?
midnight
07-26-2005, 10:45 AM
andicap: the "sheets" (specifically Ragozin) have been responsible for a lot of the money bet in New York (and to a lesser degree at other major tracks) for over 25 years. At one point in the late 80's and early 90's, it was guesstimated that about 40% of all the money bet at NYRA was from the "Rags" users.
so.cal.fan
07-26-2005, 11:10 AM
Most long time Sheets users I know, are very serious horseplayers to begin with.
I have never been impressed enough to use them myself.
I know a few people who do well with them, more who give them up, because their own methods work just as well....not to say they don't improve their game using the sheets....I'm sure they do.....or at least many do. It's just like reading a book or articles on handicapping.....there is always a chance you will come up with something that triggers your own original idea......
EVERY WINNER I have ever known or know now........uses their own original insights to handicap and/or bet. This is the only thing consistent winners have in common. They develop an idea......and stick to it, regardless if it's currently "trendy" or not.
CJ I can't tell ya why the ROTW suck's so bad at TG. I've used both TG and Rag's over a period of 5 years (off and on ). Reading TG over the past few years have become alot harder for me, that's why I'm using Rag's only now. Like I said early I pick my spots to play, I get the DRF on-line and look for races that looks like they can be playable and then I order the sheets for those races for $5.00 a race. I might spend $15 to $35 a weekend. I see no need to be paying for whole cards and most of the races will suck anyways, like a turf race where 2 or 3 horses might have ran on the surface, or msw and mc's............
so.cal.fan
07-26-2005, 11:21 AM
I didn't know you could order race by race for $5, Kev. Thanks for the tip.
Is this just the Rags or does TG offer the same deal?
Sounds like you are a smart player.
I like your style.
NoDayJob
07-26-2005, 11:24 AM
:cool: Frankly, I'd rather be between the Sheets. :cool:
NDJ
oddswizard
07-26-2005, 12:46 PM
Your documentation is very impressive. However, lets look at this from a different viewpoint. First of all I know some trainers love the sheets. They should. After all, most trainers are horrible handicappers and the sheets help them. Brisnet also brags about their contest winners and daily results. That is fine. If you compare either Brisnet or the sheets or both results you will find that most everyone else uses the Daily Racing Form and the stats are not even close. The sheets are a good tool for many handicappers and if they need it more power to them regardless of the cost. The HTR software program is another good tool.
Yes, but on the sheets you have to order up to $15.00 no less. On TG you can order just one race for $5, they also have a deal where you can pick out 9 races around the country for only $25. I started out using the sheets and then tryed TG, they do things a little differnt over there( in a good way), but I felt I could work better with the Ragozin sheets. It's funny sometimes I can just look at these little numbers on the graph paper and pick out winners, not knowing anything else about the race, pace, class, trainers, jocks. It's not that easy all the time, you have to really study the form pattern's of horses to get a good feel for them.
The Hawk
07-26-2005, 01:21 PM
Your documentation is very impressive.
Just imagine if DRF listed all the people who won money using THEIR product. For every guy mentioned in The Sheets' "documentation" ("18 of the top 100", etc.) how many of the remainder in that sample use DRF? 80%?
Your right about the DRF, I'm sure most people who win contest use the DRF in some way. They sell alot more than anybody else, I guess, if not their up there. Reading that book about the big player's, sounds like most use some form of the DRF ( PP's ) and some talked about using the sheets. I didn't see any other companys getting talked about, then again I don't if they would give out what their using, to keep other people away from it.
GMB@BP
07-26-2005, 05:15 PM
I like their product but who can afford to use it!!!!! I really like their stats and thoro-pattern information, numbers are numbers, its interpreting the data that is the most important. Also throw in there Tgraphs personal bias and the fact they dont have a clue on pace or even acknowledge it is a factor and I have a hard time accepting their numbers. I would also so its not absolute that a horse ran better in the three path then in the two path, but it is for them.
Its a good product, but 25 bucks. Hey it works for Ernie Dahlman (bets millions per year).
cnollfan
07-26-2005, 08:36 PM
I am intrigued by TG's breeding info -- how certain stallions' progeny show greater improvement in their numbers as they mature vs. other stallions. Do any of you apply this info?
toetoe
07-26-2005, 08:47 PM
Couldn't the sheets just give raw numbers, surface, dist., date, layoff lines, etc. and chuck the graphs? That would work better for me, I think, and any extrapolation or reading between the lines, I think I could manage. I guess it would look pretty DRF-like, but the raw # is what you pay for, and the form cycles, etc. can be guessed at without those eye-hurting graphs.
garyoz
07-26-2005, 10:04 PM
Couldn't the sheets just give raw numbers, surface, dist., date, layoff lines, etc. and chuck the graphs? .
Tgraph has a product called Thoroquick which pretty much does that. Personally, I think the graph format is a critical part of product.
toetoe
07-27-2005, 12:08 AM
I swear to Beyer I'm not baiting you, but tell me how the graphs are better than just lining up #'s a la cj?
...............97
..............96
.............95
etc.
The graph format is what it's mostly based on to a certain point. Besides the main number, by putting it in graph you get to see how long a horse was off from race to race ( which is important to me ) and you see how the horse is moving in and out of form. TG has that one format where it's all on one neat little box and it sucks. I tryed before breaking the beyer number's into rag's type of numbers and writing them next to the beyer, it didn't work for me, so I got a blank sheet and did it graph style ( much better ).
toetoe
07-27-2005, 02:04 AM
That's interesting. I'm gunna try it. Y'know, Bris has a thing that blends workouts chronologically between starts. I'm still not sure whether it helps me catch something I wouldn't otherwise catch, but they're trying.
garyoz
07-27-2005, 07:37 AM
I swear to Beyer I'm not baiting you, but tell me how the graphs are better than just lining up #'s a la cj?
...............97
..............96
.............95
etc.
You can visually see the time between races. They also have different type for different categories of races (sprints, routes, etc). The numbers are more nuanced than Beyer's (e.g., a quarter point move forward is very significant within the last 6 weeks) Therefore seeing it graphed makes it easier to see.
The graphed format makes it easier to pick winners--its that simple. You can get a better feel for a horse and the race. You should try it. This is Sheets 101.
The format you describe above is similar to Thoroquick.
My figures are graphed horizontally, just not vertically for time. I use === and --- to indicate different layoffs. I definitely like graphing the numbers, that's why I "borrowed" it from TG. Well, actually from The Sheets, whom TG "borrowed" it from.
Valuist
07-27-2005, 09:31 AM
I think there's some pros and cons to both T-Graph and the Sheets.
Cons: I question many of the dirt figures, since they incorporate ground loss and some of the tracks I play often have outside biases. Both products have a built-in bias of overrating closers on the dirt, who are habitually wide.
Pros: I would say the best grass figs around, since they do incorporate ground loss. The layout is definitely a plus. Before we claimed Front Paige Gal we did buy the T-Graph to get a look at the horse's career (and also used CJ's figs) as well as its siblings. The trainer data and sibling info make T-Graph a far better product than The Sheets, IMO. Obviously the full history can be very helpful from a handicapping standpoint.
I don't buy them very often although one of the partners on the recent claim that we made is a staunch T-Graph supporter. But like was said earlier, the steep price means you better be betting and winning big time to support that overhead.
GMB@BP
07-27-2005, 10:00 AM
You can visually see the time between races. They also have different type for different categories of races (sprints, routes, etc). The numbers are more nuanced than Beyer's (e.g., a quarter point move forward is very significant within the last 6 weeks) Therefore seeing it graphed makes it easier to see.
The graphed format makes it easier to pick winners--its that simple. You can get a better feel for a horse and the race. You should try it. This is Sheets 101.
The format you describe above is similar to Thoroquick.
I agree that is the best aspect of the sheets is you can see the time between starts and production in an instant. I would love to have a program that took the numbers out of the program that I use and would graph them like that. Its probably not all that horse except for my computer skills.
so.cal.fan
07-27-2005, 11:38 AM
I know a woman, who is well known at Del Mar, who was in Las Vegas for the big Handicapping Symposium last year. Jerry Brown (TG) was impressed by her use of the sheets. She was selecting horses he didn't come up with that were winning.
The top agent Ron Anderson (I believe he still has Jerry Bailey?) has used the sheets for years.
So has trainer/attorney Darrell Vienna....in fact, I think Darrell did what CJ did....he developed his own "sheets" borrowing ideas from Jerry Brown, who is a friend of his.
There are absolutely some very smart people (the above examples) who use the sheets very well.
GMB@BP
07-27-2005, 11:40 AM
I know a woman, who is well known at Del Mar, who was in Las Vegas for the big Handicapping Symposium last year. Jerry Brown (TG) was impressed by her use of the sheets. She was selecting horses he didn't come up with that were winning.
The top agent Ron Anderson (I believe he still has Jerry Bailey?) has used the sheets for years.
So has trainer/attorney Darrell Vienna....in fact, I think Darrell did what CJ did....he developed his own "sheets" borrowing ideas from Jerry Brown, who is a friend of his.
There are absolutely some very smart people (the above examples) who use the sheets very well.
Del Mar Deb?
By the way is there anyone on here that uses the Ragozin sheets, besides me?? :eek:
garyoz
07-27-2005, 08:10 PM
I agree that is the best aspect of the sheets is you can see the time between starts and production in an instant. I would love to have a program that took the numbers out of the program that I use and would graph them like that. Its probably not all that horse except for my computer skills.
About 4 years ago someone was selling a program that did that for Bris $1 files. They just disappeared overnight. I'll see if I can find their name, or I still might have the program. It had a few bugs. I remember that they were in the Boston area. While I'm not a fan of Bris Speed figs, I always thought that this was a natural product for them to develop- Speed figs on a Sheet type graph.
Has anyone tried the Performance Cycle figures over at Trackmaster? I looked at the samples and I have no clue as to how to use them. I can't imagine anyone buying them. One thing about The Sheets is that they are intuitive.
GR1@HTR
07-27-2005, 09:10 PM
Last time I purchased the Sheets (5 years ago), I hit 7 of 9 trifectas at the all mighty Retama Downs....I must admit I was spending way tooo much on my tickets though... inching out a moderate profit...Funny thing is ever since that day I decided that I was going to find a "cheaper" solution to playing the sheets and never purchased another one since....
:confused: :eek:
First time I ever got my hands on them was back in 99' and the first race I played I hit a $200 ex. and the very next race hit around $250 ex. I won like 6 out of the first 9 times I got them, I was like how long has this been going on for. Then that same year in the BC I like GOLDEN MISSLE ( off the sheets ) when off at 75-1 and bet him only to win/place and had him in the 2nd spot with all, of course he ran 3rd paying $30.00 to show and the tri was like over $37,000 and I walked away with nothing. Anyone wanting to compare number's or BS about this, I always try to get all the big stakes races every weekend. ;)
Someone early said something about the truf figs. Ex. is last sat. MODESTY H. at Arlington Park race 9. IDE BE A LADY looking at her first two races this year, both turf. Beyer gave them a 92 ( which the horse won by 3 3/4 ) and then a 81 ( horse ran 7th 5 1/4L's ) These were both at about distance's 8.5 and 9.0 furlong's at FG. Rag's gave both races a 10+. Anyone else have number's still for these days maybe CJ and see why the big swing?? Alot of the time the Beyers will stay in line, but sometimes they will take a sharp turn somewhere. SHACONAGE beyers were ( from most recent ) 97-96-96-95, Rag's were 3" 5- 7- 7.
cnollfan
07-27-2005, 10:01 PM
OT Sheets-wise, but I played Ide Be A Lady in that race. Ran her heart out at 50-1.
Last time I purchased the Sheets (5 years ago), I hit 7 of 9 trifectas at the all mighty Retama Downs....I must admit I was spending way tooo much on my tickets though... inching out a moderate profit...Funny thing is ever since that day I decided that I was going to find a "cheaper" solution to playing the sheets and never purchased another one since....
:confused: :eek:
so....Fig2 was YOUR idea, eh? :D
Macdiarmadillo
07-28-2005, 03:21 AM
Okay, kev, here's another Raggie user that's been lurking on this thread so far.
Never any guarantee that any flavor of sheets is going to give you a life-changing revelation or info that's different from what everyone can see in the DRF. They're pretty useless in most mdn/mcl races. What sheets do for me is speed up the handicapping process, largely by narrowing down the contenders. There are too many other factors that aren't covered by the numbers, particularly pace, that you have to figure.
AQUEBUCKS
07-28-2005, 09:32 AM
Agree with Macdiarmida. I've used the sheets for many years, and they give a quick snapshot of the contenders/non-contenders. An average card (9 races) you will find that at least three, sometime four races where the sheets are useless in that there is limited or no data. I also use TMM on occasion and this to me is a more contrarian approach to handicapping vice using the sheets. The sheets sometimes point you to those solid pattern plays with maybe a 5-1 or 6-1 mutuel, but never a monster score like (musique tujours 70-1) as TMM did for me. I wouldn't use them as a stand-alone system, but still believe they are a good tool to use with your handicapping.
Aquebucks
That's what I said early in one of these post, there's no need to get a whole card, that's just dumb. I get the DRf and pick out the races that looks to be ones I could play. See i'm the other way around I don't ever take pace into my capping when looking over the sheets, I might see what running style they have, to see if their going to be wide into the first turn. That's not fair of you saying their not going to point you to big prices, i've had some of my biggest scores using sheets, the highest one ever was when I was using TG at MNR park and the horse paid something like $120 and back in 2003 I had Taste of Paradise ( I think that's the wrong spelling ) when he won and paid around what $70 in the San Diego. Horse called Lead Story at CD in Nov. of 2003 ( I think ) won paying like $49 and I had the 2nd place horse picked out ex. coming back over $300 ( reason I bring that one up I posted it on their site TG the day of the race ). The one thing the sheets does for me is they lead me to which horses to throw out. :)
Macdiarmadillo
07-28-2005, 03:11 PM
For Sheets pointing to big scores, I've found plenty of potential ones that Sheets have pointed me to but very few outright winners as is typical of longshots in the 30-1 and up range. That works out just fine if you have them backed up or keyed in tris or supers. Then again over the years I've hit as many or more winners in this longshot range using other methods (angles, physicality, dumb racing luck, standing on a chair and dropping a pen on the Form, etc).
I just think it's very much tougher to get like a 30-1 winner with the average field size going down and down as time goes by. And that's no matter what you use, except maybe darts.
BTW kev, do you remember if the big ones came off sheets patterns?
When you say big ones, I guess your talking about the scores I just talked about me hitting? If so yes. The one that I though payed $125, I was wrong now that I'm at home I looked it up it payed $112.40-37.00-21.80, horse was called SUPREME EVENING, two races back she had just broke threw an old top by about 2 1/2pts and bounce off that and had 6 weeks from that new top, so it was a good pattern. This year I started to keep every race I buy and put them in a folder for my learning pleasure. :cool:
OK, to the pace issue.
If a frontrunning horse is in against a faster horse, he will chase and not make the lead. Once he doesn't, he will quit and back up, and the jock usually packs it in, certainly not persevering to the wire. So yes, eight lengths is very possible.
Azeri last year is a good case. She ran 4 two turn races leading into the Breeder's Cup Classic.
Her best speed figure was earned in her very first race, the Apple Blossom, a 116. She did it because she loafed on the lead with a 103 pace number.
Her next two turn race was the Go For Wand at Saratoga. She earned a 109 speed figure, earned with very similar pace figure of 107.
Next came her worse figure of the year in the Personal Ensign, a 96. Why? Well, my guess is the 113 pace figure while dueling might have had something to do with it. Her next race was the Spinster in what was basically a public workout, so her 98 - 100 figures while 3 and 4 wide don't really mean much.
I don't know what the ratings were for The Sheets, I'd be curious. Do they post archives? I already know that TG changes variants to make the races "square" with previous numbers, so looking there won't do much good.
You bring some horse up I don't have sheets for, let's try this. I was just wacthing the replays on TVG for ARL. Prime ex. was race one, you had this horse loose on the lead 49 and 1:14, and then you had a horse coming from downtown to blow right by him, next race speed duel horse held on, race seven two horses all the way around battled dead heat both. My point is if a horse is going to run he/she will run it, unless you have some crazy early fast times. Why is it then you see horse throwing down and run 1-2 all the way around and the closers is no where to be found, cause I think they ( the closers) were not ready that day. Also the sheets give number's called quit numbers...."There are numbers that we give out of horses that we call quit numbers---numbers of what they did in an earlier part of the race than the finish line. And I would say that one of the reasons that horses get quit numbers is that they ran unrealistically fast early. But it doesn't happen all that often."
Hey CJ I have the sheets for Sar. race 8 and race 9 today, if there somthing in there.
4 Spanish Mission
I get his last three races as very similar, with final time being affected greatly by pace, especially the last and the one three back. For me, he ran an 89 after making the lead at the pace call of an 84. He ran slightly slower two back, and 84, after making a big move into a soft pace that didn't do him any favors. Three back is the big one, the horse set the pace setting a very fast 98 pace, was passed at the top of the lane, and backed up to a 70 speed figure. I rate all three races basically the same overall, there were no bounces or regressions.
5 Bucharest
Last two races, I rate exactly the same. The horse last out earned a 91 speed figure, but he did it running a slowish 82 pace. Two back, he earned an 84 speed figure, but did it pressing a 95 pace while wide and beaten 9 lengths.
How do The Sheets look for these two horses?
The 2, 3 and 4 in the 9th race show similar patterns as well if you are interested.
Ok SPANISH M. ( first off a little v is wide 3-3.9, and big V is wide 4 or more, also there's small t's and big T's for trouble, which they don't add into the figs, but I think they play a part) last race got a 11- v two back 12+ V and three back 14" t, also he bored out in that race, might be the reason why he went to the sidelines. Beyer has it 89-82-69, or in sheets numbers 14-17-22.
BUC. last race 10+ rail trip, next race 13 they didnt have no mark for being wide. beyer 14-18
Now on F.ALLEY in the derby they gave him a ( ran too fast early ) last race is about 2 1/2pts faster than the ARK.Derby fig.
ANDROMEDA's HERO which I loved in the bel. is about 1pt faster in his last than 3 back. :liar: ( my little girl picks out the little faces after I get done typing ) so I'm not lying,lol.
I have Flower Alley running the same race in the Derby as he did in the Dwyer.
In the Dwyer, he ran 100 pace, 104 speed, while in the Derby, he ran 123 pace 92 speed.
I have Andromeda's Hero running the same race three times in a row, with the speed figure being affected by pace in each one.
GR1@HTR
07-30-2005, 01:12 PM
Tbrown...
Actually, if I understand correctly, the great Dr. Larry (who passed away last year) was the idea behind Fig/PRATT. I think he had a custom job that KM created for him and then was later released with the normal edition of HTR. Dr. Larry was an excellent capper and long time sheets user. A good man who is much missed...
See if A.Hero had that line ( same number's in a row, which Thorograph does alot ) I wouldn't have bet him in the Bel. that day. For the sheets A.Hero the derby race is about 4 1/2pts slower than his last race. FA is about 9 1/2pts slower. How do you put all of this into picking winners?? For form reading we have pattern's or lines that have held up over years. Big ex. is at ELP race 3 today. horse called SHAMETHEMOON when he ran that may18th race ran 2nd at 5-1, before than he had been beaten by 10L 28L, but there was a pattern on the sheets that pointed to him running his best that day, it's when a 3yo just breaks threw his/her old 2yo best(top) look for them to run big in either the next or race after that, in his case SH had ran a 32+(at 2) and first race of the year ran a 30, next race where he ran 2nd he ran a new top, here's where it get's good, so after that he bounces beaten by 6 1/2L's off that new top and was given about 9 weeks from the top race and came back to win at 12-1 in his last. This is type of pattern's I have folder's full of.
DrugSalvastore
08-10-2005, 05:40 AM
andicap: the "sheets" (specifically Ragozin) have been responsible for a lot of the money bet in New York (and to a lesser degree at other major tracks) for over 25 years. At one point in the late 80's and early 90's, it was guesstimated that about 40% of all the money bet at NYRA was from the "Rags" users.
WOW does that number seem inflated!!
I don't think the sheets have as much control of the odds board as people think.
Let me give you an example.
July 29th at Saratoga (3rd day of the meet) race #7.
The 1-to-5 favorite is #8 Quick One. He ran an 8.5 in his debut last time out. The #7 is a 9-to-1 shot named Royal Fudge. RF ran an 8.5 as his two year old top (meaning best race at age 2.) He "paired-up" his 8.5 top (he ran back-to-back 8.5's) and than bounced off the "paired top" in his most recent race.
So basically you have two horses who are identically as fast as each other, one is a 2nd time starter, and the other has a popular pattern in his last race and is 36 times a bigger price!!!
This race is a total no-brainer on Thoro-Graph sheets---and if the sheet money did control a strong fraction of the pools...there is no way Royal Fudge would have been 9-to-1.
Royal Fudge won that race---there are a lot of times when obvious sheet plays like her don't take a lot of money and don't win. My point is that I don't think the sheet money in the pools is near as strong as people say it is.
I rarely buy sheets myself---but I make it a point to befriend sheet users who let me look at what they buy. I happened to catch Royal Fudge over Quick One that day...I couldn't play QO at 1-to-5...and I asked a friend who looked better on the sheets between Miss Lakefield and Royal Fudge. He told me Royal Fudge looked better than both ML and QO--so it gave me a reason to bet the race. They aren't worth paying $25 a day for, but in occasional spots the sheets are worth having.
nobeyerspls
08-10-2005, 07:54 AM
Two guys at my local simulcast facility walked around with graphs on rolled up sheets of paper. I'm guessing it was thorograph. I found myself walking behind them on the way out one day and noticed they drove a car that Rent-A Wreck might turn down. Whatever those graphs were they didn't seem to be working for those guys.
Later only one of them showed up and he semed to be using the Form.
People will always find ways of talking sh*t about the sheets. Your funny.
AQUEBUCKS
08-10-2005, 08:52 AM
Thougt I'd jump in here as I use the Rags from time to time. I'm a small fish in a big pond when it comes to my contemporaries here in NY. I can name 6 to 8 guys off the top of my head that bet $1k+ (base) exactas on the NY races (they all use the Ragz)
Aquebucks
PaceAdvantage
08-10-2005, 04:05 PM
I can believe that the sheet guys bet all that money....40% probably seems like it might be close to reality, given that the majority of any pari-mutuel pool at any track is comprised of a MINORITY of bettors. ie. 10% of the the betting population makes up 80% of the pool (or something like that)....big bettors rule. And big bettors (especially years ago) bought the sheets....
AQUEBUCKS
08-11-2005, 09:38 AM
Good point PA, I believe the Pareto principle applies as to the volume of the betting pools. Especially in NY & CA. As for some of us smaller bettors, I think we're all trying to beat the SHEET guys. I use the SHEETS to compare with my contrarian method, and try to find a reason to beat them (at a price of course).
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