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Jeff P
07-22-2005, 05:49 PM
07-22-05 LAD R6

This race is a story about two horses.

#1 OXFORDS LEGACY
This horse was my play. I was "fortunate" enough today to be able to watch the tote starting with about 5 min to go before post time.
5 min to post: 17-1
3 min to post: 20-1
2 min to post: 25-1
0 min to post: 30-1



The other horse?
#3 BUBBA GUY
I was interested in this one because this was the horse I was going to have to beat out of the gate if I was going to have any chance to cash a ticket.
3 min to post: 2-1
0 min to post: 5-2


The race unfolds:
The gate opens and the #2 horse makes a sharp left turn - so much so that the rider immediately pulls him up. #3 BUBBA GUY also gets a poor start. Did they bump? I couldn't tell. All I know is that my horse broke running and avoided whatever happened back there.

At this point my horse is in the clear and is the only inside speed that broke well. Because of this IMHO #1 OXFORDS LEGACY now has a legit chance to win.

#1 OXFORDS LEGACY races close to the lead for the opening half mile. Through the stretch, the horse makes an honest effort to win the race outright battling inside the favorite but finishes 2nd beaten about a half length.

Final odds on both horses?
OXFORDS LEGACY: 13-1 (down from 30-1 while they were in the gate.)
BUBBA GUY: 5-1 (up from 5-2 while they were standing in the gate.)

The accuracy of late money is sometimes nothing short of amazing.

One of three things happened in this race:

1. Somebody somewhere is VERY VERY good and is waiting until the last possible second to pull the trigger of a very large and well aimed gun.

-or--

2. Somebody somewhere has figured out a way to see the start of a race and is able to switch money off of horses that lose all chance at the start.

--or--

3. I am completely losing my mind.


-jp

.

toetoe
07-22-2005, 05:59 PM
Welcome to the confraternity of horseplayers. All three are simultaneously possible; yea, perhaps even probable. All seriousness aside, only a small minority of races are cinches for the wiseguys. They have to pay their money and take their chances. Anyway, did the 5/1 horse win?

ryesteve
07-22-2005, 06:28 PM
Were you watching the live tote from the racetrack, or were you watching the odds on the Internet? A while back I tried analyzing betting patterns with software that compiled the tote feeds off the Internet. It didn't take long for me to give up on this because what I was seeing was that 70-80% of the money was coming in at 0 minutes to post time. Unless things work differently at some tracks, this is never the way I've seen money flow in when watching live at the track. I assumed that over the Internet, the bet totals either had a lag, or they were being buffered and input late, or something like that. In any event, it made looking for action patterns fairly moot when so much of the money was coming in on one big dump at a point where it'd be too late to get a bet down.

The point of all this is if you were looking at a 'net feed, the odds movement at the end doesn't necessarily reflect bets that were actually placed at the last second (or later).

saratoga guy
07-22-2005, 06:31 PM
I just watched the replay and for what it's worth: Oxford's Legacy is listed at 12-1 as the first four runners and their odds are first flashed -- somewhere within the first quarter mile.

Oxford makes a bold move on the inside on the turn -- and as they turn for home his odds actually went up to 13-1.

Jeff P
07-22-2005, 08:27 PM
I just watched the replay and for what it's worth: Oxford's Legacy is listed at 12-1 as the first four runners and their odds are first flashed -- somewhere within the first quarter mile.
Interesting. I just watched the replay myself and saw this (for the first time.) They have 12-1 clearly displayed on the track video feed. At the time leading up to the race I was focusing my attention on the Brisbet toteboard which said 30-1 right at post time. Quite a difference there. Which had me thinking after the bell betting and and grumbling to myself. Glad to see it's just me losing my mind after all. Still, I wonder why such a large difference between the odds shown on Brisbet and the odds on the live track feed. I wonder: Just how long is that time delay? Evidently quite a bit.


-jp

.

joeyspicks
07-22-2005, 09:33 PM
Hey Jeff,

Not sure of the race you are discribing........but now that you have brought it up I realize I very seldom see the horse I bet have the odds go UP during the race (late money). I mean I have been at the track and have made a play with about 10 sec to start (VERY late in other words!;) ) and the horse shows 7/2.
As I watch the race I see his odds go from 7/2 to 2-1 during the first half of the race............ok I UNDERSTAND.........But shouldnt at least a couple of time the reverse happen ? ? ? ?

I dont remember ever getting the higher odds after my play????:confused:

BillW
07-22-2005, 09:51 PM
Joey,

For every action there's an opposite and equal reaction :). The first time you have a 10-1 blow up to 25-1, it will make up for quite a few 7-2 -> 2-1 drops. A theory I have is that the lower odds horses are vulnerable to lots of last second simulcast action from the rebate grinders.

Bill

kenwoodallpromos
07-22-2005, 11:45 PM
I concluded without proof that a lot of people bet the lst 5 minutes; amny of those must decide they just Have to get a bet down so they bet on one of the lowest-odds contenders- I would like to know the odds of the horse(s) whose odds lower after the gate opens.
I understand it takes a few seconds to do the final accounting on all the co-mingled pools, then to register on a video feed.
(off-topic) I often see a nationwide live speech that is a couple of seconds later on a different channel due to the position of the satellites the "beam" is bouncing off of. Simulcasting and viseo feeds of various types I think are always produces by bouncing off of satellites.

kenwoodallpromos
07-22-2005, 11:53 PM
This is from a Harness Tracks of America Inc. meeting, but it nay apply to Tbreds as well.

"Outdated frame relay technology that does not allow transactions to move fast enough has been an issue. The delay in data transfer has been significant in the criticism of bettors in the sport today to not understand why if a horse is 5/2 at the off, and when he is past the 3/8 pole, he now becomes 8/5 because of the very slow transaction process because of outdated technology"

kenwoodallpromos
07-22-2005, 11:58 PM
"Members of the NTRA Players' Panel:
James Quinn, writer, management consultant, California
Ponti Compagna, retired businessman, Texas
Paul Cornman, New York
Dave Cuscuna, securities trader, Florida
Andy Cylke, CPA, California
Cary Fotias, securities trader, New York
David Gutfreund, racing analyst/handicapper, Illinois
Ken Kirchner, NTRA, Kentucky
Mike Maloney, businessman, Kentucky
Barry Meadow, writer, author, California
Jim Mineo, teacher, Florida
Maury Wolff, economist, Maryland
____________A. Integrity of the Pari-mutuel Pools/Late Mergers
The late mergers of simulcast pools at the host tracks following the off-times have resulted in unacceptably late and significant drops in the odds after the horses have left the starting gate. The phenomenon has contributed to a perception that sophisticated bettors are using technology to past-post the races, and to a real loss of value that subverts the handicapping and wagering goals of all bettors

cj
07-23-2005, 04:49 AM
Of course none of this is set in stone, but usually, if you bet a horse 2-1 or less near the bell, he will stay there or go down, between 5-2 and 4-1, stay the same, and 9-2 and up, the horse will stay there or go up. Just my observations, and like I said, it is certainly not 100% accurate.

Hosshead
07-23-2005, 05:53 AM
It would be nice if the horses with odds going Up after the bell would win just as Often as horses' who's odds go Down after the bell, but not so.
If my horse's odds go Up after the gates open, - I'm Usually In Trouble !

cj
07-23-2005, 06:04 AM
Agreed hoss, but most horses that go up after the bell are the longer prices, so they don't win as often.