Vulnerable/False Favorites

[andicap]

Has anyone here done hard research on the factors that make favorites lose. I mean factors that are readily apparent in the Racing form, not smf's trainer angles or any other original research like track bias.

For example,
1. Negative class drop.
2. Trainer below 5%
3. Layoff
4. Hasn't won at distance
5. proven loser at class
6. proven loser at track
7. Bad trip

and so on.
i'd love to look at 200 races where the chalk loses and get a chart of which factors are really bad for favorites. for example, in 200 of the losses, the horse had a negative class drop 20 times, a layoff 30 times, etc. I recognize this isn't perfect -- you can't do an Impact value rating -- but it would still be a good indication on when you can pass up a favorite.

[Dave Schwartz]

I believe you would find that it changes from one kind of race to another. That is, it might be important for a favorite to have lots of early speed in a 5f race for maidens and hardly matter at 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

Dave

[Rick]

I think what you should be looking for is not what makes favorites lose, but what makes favorite really bad bets (ROI-wise). Finding a favorite that has a 30% loss (not all that hard) makes it really easy to find another horse that is an overlay in the same race.