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View Full Version : The 5 most important questions to ask when handicapping a race


fishorsechess
07-16-2005, 06:23 PM
I am going to drive Hurricane crazy by asking this. Am accused
of asking too many questions. But isn't that what handicapping
is about?
Question: What are the five or so most important questions to
ask about a race?
My Answer: a) Who is the speed of the race? b) Who is the
class of the race? c) Who is the pace of the race ?d) Which horses
are improving? e) Is the favorite vulnerable?

twindouble
07-16-2005, 06:59 PM
I am going to drive Hurricane crazy by asking this. Am accused
of asking too many questions. But isn't that what handicapping
is about?
Question: What are the five or so most important questions to
ask about a race?
My Answer: a) Who is the speed of the race? b) Who is the
class of the race? c) Who is the pace of the race ?d) Which horses
are improving? e) Is the favorite vulnerable?


a) What are the conditions of the race?

b) What's the trainers intent?

c) Who's going to be where? d) when?,e) and why in the race? f)

In any given race, one or many factors can come into play in figuring out who the compitition is, that may include the favorite or or not.

Overlay
07-16-2005, 07:09 PM
Limiting the questions to five, for me they would be:

Which horses are likely to be on or near the early pace?
What is each horse's likely overall speed potential in this race, in light of its
past speed patterns and current condition?
How does the horse's class/consistency compare to its competition?
Which horses are favored by jockey assignments or switches?
Which horses are being undervalued in the betting?

parlay
07-16-2005, 09:35 PM
It really depends on the type of race your analyzing.
2yo mdns. i look at blood and trainer.
Mdn grass i look at blood and trainer
Lightly raced horses i look at blood to detemine if the horse is
finally getting a chance to do what he should excel at. e.g. 2 turns
Older experienced horses i want to determine if they know how to win!
And if they have been successful at the trip.
I think what i'm trying to say is the art of handicapping is knowing the right questions to ask yourself when appraising different types of races.

mcikey01
07-16-2005, 10:16 PM
let's expand the scope of the thread to include the least important questions to ask yourself (or what questions should you never ask yourself) when trying to handicap a race?

My entry would lead off with "Have I paid the rent (mortgage) yet?" :eek:

Suff
07-16-2005, 10:46 PM
let's expand the scope of the thread to include the least important questions to ask yourself (or what questions should you never ask yourself) when trying to handicap a race?

My entry would lead off with "Have I paid the rent (mortgage) yet?" :eek:

Funny post. Put a frame on it. Classic.:ThmbUp:

midnight
07-16-2005, 11:21 PM
Assuming you're just looking for win bets:

1) Which horses will be trying (e.g. not just out for exercise)?

2) Of the ones left, which horses can be competitive (e.g. the contenders)?

3) Of the ones left, which horses will be disadvantaged by the race's various conditions (pace scenario, weather, post bias, speed bias, etc.) to the point where they're no longer competitive?

4) Of the horses left, what is the probability of winning for each?

5) Is there any value (e.g. any overlays)?

If you're looking for exotic bets, there's often a whole different set of criteria, depending on the exotic in question.

kenwoodallpromos
07-16-2005, 11:43 PM
1)Which horses are the overlays?
2)Which horses are the overlays?
3)Which horses are the overlays?
4)Which horses are the overlays?
5)Which horses are the overlays?
I consider all other questions less important, and other questions would come first chronologically.

cj
07-17-2005, 05:39 AM
1)Which horses are the overlays?


And how do you know if you don't handicap the race first?

joeyspicks
07-17-2005, 08:31 AM
I handicap first using my normal procedures. THEN I start asking questions....the FIRST

1) what do I do with the favorite ?

a. do I AGREE with the public?
b. Is the favorite not even in my top 3 picks ?
c. why?
d. or is the favorite playable?
e) or (hopefully) do I have one or more overlays in my top 3

2) what bet gives me my greatest profit potential ?

tonto1944
07-17-2005, 09:42 AM
1- who you like.
2- who you like
3- who you like
4- who you like
5- who you like

Handicapping is not as Emeril would say Brain Surgery,it's a guessing game.You can do what ever you want to to try to figure out your race and have it down to 2 or 3 horses for an exacta or tri. and if 1 or 2 of your horses don't feel up to running that day kiss your money good bye. It's luck. Some times you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you.Un fortunatly in horse racing the ber eats you most of the time.When it's going good ,it a great thing.Right now everything is going good for me. Also the IRS. But if I had an 90 yr old Mother or Grandma then the hell with the IRS.
I watch these races on TV and watch these handicappers and they talk and talk about why the horse will win and then Boom it loses.I will bet you the don't win 20% of their picks. And besides they get paid by the TV station, talk about highway robbery.
The best handicapper I ever saw in my life was Clem Florio,he used to work for the New York Post , he said " You always try to get the bettor his money back plus a few dollars". He did and then something happened and there were a few stories around at the time that he was to good so one day he was gone. Ended up at Pimlico handicapping races. From big time to Pimlico. You tell me.
So in the end it's you pick who you like and hope they want to run that day.Like I said in another post I don't buy the Racing Form , I down load the official results from the internet and see how they ran and I judge for my self.I am retired from Verizon where I worked for 30 yrs. and have time to do what I like best bet the thorughbreds. So you can have all the computor programs and special charts and graphs you want ,but it all comes down to luck and if your horse wants to run that day.I am sure you have gone to work on a day where you just didn't feel like giving 100% and that probably was most of the time.

joeyspicks
07-17-2005, 10:29 AM
tonto1944 : "So you can have all the computor programs and special charts and graphs you want ,but it all comes down to luck and if your horse wants to run that day.I am sure you have gone to work on a day where you just didn't feel like giving 100% and that probably was most of the time."
.................................................. .................................................. ......

So tonto.....do you just throw a dart before posting your picks ??;)

Figman
07-17-2005, 10:38 AM
Tonto1944
Clem Florio was definitely one of the best public handicappers of all time. But you have your Clem Florio facts wrong. He was originally a Marylander. Worked many years in the Baltimore area. The NY Post got him for selections for a short period of time. He was a great firend of trainer John Tamarro, Sr. See this story.
http://tinyurl.com/8fz8b

hurrikane
07-17-2005, 11:15 AM
I am going to drive Hurricane crazy

You can fall no farther than the post on reading race conditions.

My only request would be to please bet higher dollar amounts and post every day which tracks you plan to play. I need the money.


Clem Florio was great. A better ROI was had by the guy that use to pick for him when he was on vacation.
Vinnie something.

They always posted the number of picks, winners, and ROI everyday in the post.

You dont' find anyone doing that these days. Not on a single pick.

top 5..

what's my log in
what's the weather
what's for breakfast
what time is my tee time.
who's buying.

seriously, I do everything by queries so I don't think this way anymore.
Most important factors I have found fir profit.

Field Size,
surface
early speed
class
conditioning

then, who is the friggin coach.

no special order.

twindouble
07-17-2005, 11:16 AM
1- who you like.
2- who you like
3- who you like
4- who you like
5- who you like

Tonto; Luck does play a part and I've always have been the first one to admit that some of the good scores I've made through out the years were do to luck. Example, I played a tri box 3 horses with 3-2 shot that bolted at the top of the stretch with 6 legnth lead, had to lose 5. My 3 other bombs run 1,2,3 within a legnth of each other and the chalk came back only to lose 3rd by head. The winner was 9-1 second was 35-1 and third was 22-1. It don't end there, their was an inquiry, I didn't see anything but the chalk bolting. Well low and behold, they dq the winner to second and put up my 35-1 shot and I get the whole pool. I can take some credit for coming up with the other 3 but not the big payoff.

Then there's the bad luck, I have one horse live in the pick 6 last race at Belmont, the sucker bore in coming out of the gate took out three others, came to dead stop and goes on to win by 9 legnths, gets dq'ed and they move the chalk up and it pays over $20,000 including a nice carryover from the day before.


I agree when it comes to handicapping via computer programs and extreme
statistical analysis.


Your answer on the top five, doesn't explain how you come up with " who you like".

Good luck!

tonto1944
07-17-2005, 11:45 AM
Who you like means who you feel has the best chance to win ,pl or show. Not what someone else thinks. Unless you have some information we don't know. How many times have you changed your mind because you read something or someone gave you bad info,and if you say never then your nose grew 2 inches. It all comes down to weather you like the horses chances of winning not a handicapper who will pick maybe one winner a day or someone trying to change your mind.

twindouble
07-17-2005, 12:09 PM
Who you like means who you feel has the best chance to win ,pl or show. Not what someone else thinks. Unless you have some information we don't know. How many times have you changed your mind because you read something or someone gave you bad info,and if you say never then your nose grew 2 inches. It all comes down to weather you like the horses chances of winning not a handicapper who will pick maybe one winner a day or someone trying to change your mind.

I see nothing wrong with getting opinions from handicappers you respect and follow the horses on a regular bases. When anyone mentions a horse to me, I ask straight up, "why do you like him?"


Again, how do you come up with "who you feel has the best chance to win?" If it's by reading the DRF's PP's, that's answer enough for me.

kenwoodallpromos
07-17-2005, 12:18 PM
1) Where? Look for suitable distance and track layout.
2) What? Look for suitable race level and surface.
3) When? Look for training and race schedule that has been suitable for the horse and that the horse is now in good form.
4) Who? Look for connections that know hoe to train and race the horse up to its capabilities.
5) How? Look for the horse to be able to have enough early speed, pace, stamina, and the trip to prevail through mild trouble.
Or So) Decide what odds you will accept for the horse to make a profit on 10 of the exact same races; check M/L anf toteboard and decide if the odds are in your favor; decide if the horse is an overlay.
Or 6) Just bet the monster if the odds are even or greater!

Light
07-17-2005, 12:35 PM
The biggest,most obvious question to ask yourself is "which PP line am I going to use to represent this horse's abilities".It's the difference between winning and losing.

kingfin66
07-17-2005, 12:40 PM
The biggest,most obvious question to ask yourself is "which PP line am I going to use to represent this horse's abilities".It's the difference between winning and losing.

This definitely speaks to the artful side of handicapping. You can use automation all you want, but that old saying applies here: "garbage in, garbage out."

tonto1944
07-17-2005, 12:55 PM
I look at his last 2 races. I also look to see if the pace was to fast or to slow,I also look to their sires. I feel if the sire liked the track so will they. I look to see trainer and jock. I bet every day except usually when NYRA is dark. Sometimes I will bet a few horses at other tracks if I see someting I like or a good friend says to. But 90% of the time I only stay at New York. Saratoga is the hardest track for me . The reason everyone ships their horses there for the meet. So you have to be very careful.There is a reason they used to call it the graveyard of favorites. Some trainer point their horses to that one particular race there.

tonto1944
07-17-2005, 01:03 PM
Tonto1944
Clem Florio was definitely one of the best public handicappers of all time. But you have your Clem Florio facts wrong. He was originally a Marylander. Worked many years in the Baltimore area. The NY Post got him for selections for a short period of time. He was a great firend of trainer John Tamarro, Sr. See this story.
http://tinyurl.com/8fz8b

I don't know how old you are or where you come from. I am 61 i have lived in Brooklyn all my life and back when Florio was a handicapper there was not that many OTB's if any and they exacta's were 3rd.5th and 7th and the only triple was the ninth. And where I lived the Gin Mill was owned by a Bookie a very good friend of the Family. The Bookies hated Florio because he had a lot of followers. He would proably have a minimum of 3 winners a day at Belmont or Big A. This particular friend of the family one day said they lost a bundle because everyone bet some Florio's picks and scored. He also said it wasn't the first time and he hoped they would be able to get his colum pulled. Also they felt the same way about another Post capper named De Nono..He also said they had some friends working on it because it was costing to much money. Believe it or not that is up to you.

joeyspicks
07-17-2005, 01:08 PM
LIGHT: The biggest,most obvious question to ask yourself is "which PP line am I going to use to represent this horse's abilities".It's the difference between winning and losing.
........................

so VERY true.....its crucial. Just play around changing PP lines and see the VERY DIFFERENT outcomes it produces. Again its why I keep saying that in most races there simply is NO "BEST" horse. The decisions YOU make about pace line selection could be very right or wrong on one or several horses making your assumptions about the race completely off.

kitts
07-17-2005, 02:12 PM
Four rules:
(1) Form/Condition (Contender selection-I do my own)
(2) Ability (I use software-paceline dependent and a race shape report)
(3) Angles (I rarely use these)
(4) Value (Considering only horses with software fair odds under M/L)

Works for me.

kenwoodallpromos
07-17-2005, 06:50 PM
Use the line with the best finish if:
Within the last 6 months; variant under 20; more than 6 entrants.

oddswizard
07-18-2005, 08:20 PM
1. Eliminate all the out of condtion and bad past performance horses.

2. Check out the distance of the race. (conditions)

3. In sprints up to 7 furlongs use PACE RATINGS. One of the top 3 pace horses will win 70% of the races.

4. In route races use CLASS to pick the winners. One of the top 3 class horses will win 70% of the races. Pace ratings will only pick 40% winners in route races. This is what many pace handicappers overlook. The DISTANCE is the key.

5. Play the top three horses according to the value. In my case, it is 4-1+ on all races.

twindouble
07-19-2005, 10:25 AM
1. Eliminate all the out of condtion and bad past performance horses.

2. Check out the distance of the race. (conditions)

3. In sprints up to 7 furlongs use PACE RATINGS. One of the top 3 pace horses will win 70% of the races.

4. In route races use CLASS to pick the winners. One of the top 3 class horses will win 70% of the races. Pace ratings will only pick 40% winners in route races. This is what many pace handicappers overlook. The DISTANCE is the key.

5. Play the top three horses according to the value. In my case, it is 4-1+ on all races.

oddswizard; That 70% would catch anyones eyes but with further thought conditions can be for 2yo, 3yo's and 3 and up. Not to mention the stake races, graded invitational, restricted and so on. To me a route race is mile 1/16 and up. So, if that 70% you mention applies to just 3 and up where class is reasonably defined, I may put some value on it. Even then it's not easy to define who the class is. 2 and 3yo's as you know are hard to nail down as to what their ultimate class will be. Class will shift from year to year depending on how good the horses climbing the ladder are and who's barns they are in.

Obviously it wouldn't apply to the lower claiming ranks say from $30,000 on down and I like to play the on down. There's not an awful lot that seperates horses in the lower ranks, picking winners down here have more to do with form, distance, track condition, trip and trainer patterns and jocks. Not class per-say.

T.D.

classhandicapper
07-19-2005, 10:43 AM
The major 5 are:

Who has run fast enough in the past to win today?

Is anyone better or worse than they look on paper because of a tough/easy pace or trip scenario in recent races?

Is there an abundance of speed or lack of speed in the race and could that put some horses at an advantage/disadvantage?

Is there anything about any horses' form cycle etc... that suggests it will get better or worse today?

Are there any overlays?

The Judge
07-19-2005, 02:57 PM
I like to look over the whole card and not handicapp right away kind of like reading a magazine I might do this a couple or three times. I'm looking to see if anything stands out anything that looks strange. Does my eye keep coming back to the same horse or horses. Does anything jump out at me. If so I have a horse and a race that handicapping will play a secondary not primary role. Then I handicapp the card.

twindouble
07-19-2005, 05:59 PM
I like to look over the whole card and not handicapp right away kind of like reading a magazine I might do this a couple or three times. I'm looking to see if anything stands out anything that looks strange. Does my eye keep coming back to the same horse or horses. Does anything jump out at me. If so I have a horse and a race that handicapping will play a secondary not primary role. Then I handicapp the card.

Judge; That's interesting because I do things like that as well, I'll sometimes put the form down few times, just to make sure I'm seeing the race right. Not only that, I think you have to have the right mind set to handicap well. Backing off, then looking again in more cases than not things come together. There's other days that it all comes faster and then there's the ones when you feel like you didn't handicap at all, everything is off the board. I know when my mind set isn't up to par then I norm back off. In other words there's days when your just not into it in the right way, or the conditions are so bad you should go home anyway.

oddswizard
07-20-2005, 12:37 AM
Thanks for the input. The age & conditions (stakes, claiming, etc.) does not matter. The distance of the race, regardless of dirt or turf determines who will win. I know this is simplistic -
but it works! Pace makes the race up to 7 fulongs. Class is the key over 1mile. One mile races are figured by using 2 Class selections and the best Pace horse in a sprint race. My rule for Class is simple. Don't pick any horse that hasn't proven himself within one length of winning at a higher Class or has won at a higher Class. Illustration: In a $25,000 claiming race at 1 1/16 the Class horses are those that have won or came within one length of winning at a higher Class (say 32,000 claiming). How did I come up with this? I was sick in bed for one year and studied the results of over 10,000 races by working backwards. I reviewed the charts of the winners and worked backward studying the form for winning patterns of each type of race. Works for me.

Overlay
07-20-2005, 12:59 AM
I was sick in bed for one year and studied the results of over 10,000 races by working backwards.

I'm sorry to hear about your extended convalescence, but it struck a chord with me, because I first started studying handicapping seriously when I was ordered off my feet for four weeks because of back problems almost thirty years ago. I used the layup to read Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing and to develop my first attempt at a checklist system based on criteria mentioned in it. (For example, eliminate all horses which haven't had two races, or two workouts, or one of each, within the last seventeen days, and so forth.) I long ago abandoned such black-and-white criteria, but I've been hooked on racing ever since.

NY BRED
07-20-2005, 05:38 AM
all of the user replies are logical

my only addition is do i want to play this race in an attempt
to cash a bet/show a profit.

that bet generally will be an exacta/tri,unless i think the
favorite is vulnerable in a race within a pick 4(which i
find generally pays way beyond a parlay)

andicap
07-20-2005, 11:57 AM
Thanks for the input. The age & conditions (stakes, claiming, etc.) does not matter. The distance of the race, regardless of dirt or turf determines who will win. I know this is simplistic -
but it works! Pace makes the race up to 7 fulongs. Class is the key over 1mile. One mile races are figured by using 2 Class selections and the best Pace horse in a sprint race. My rule for Class is simple. Don't pick any horse that hasn't proven himself within one length of winning at a higher Class or has won at a higher Class. Illustration: In a $25,000 claiming race at 1 1/16 the Class horses are those that have won or came within one length of winning at a higher Class (say 32,000 claiming). How did I come up with this? I was sick in bed for one year and studied the results of over 10,000 races by working backwards. I reviewed the charts of the winners and worked backward studying the form for winning patterns of each type of race. Works for me.

To clarify,

So if a horse won in THAT class level, 25K claiming, he would NOT qualify. He would only qualify if he won/came close in a HIGHER level?

oddswizard
07-20-2005, 04:34 PM
You have it right. A $25,000 winner is a 25,000 Class horse that is not dropping in Class. I look for something at a higher Class dropping down. If I cannot find a Class drop I pass the race. Thanks for the input.

iggy
07-20-2005, 04:50 PM
You have it right. A $25,000 winner is a 25,000 Class horse that is not dropping in Class. I look for something at a higher Class dropping down. If I cannot find a Class drop I pass the race. Thanks for the input.


On reading your posts you appear to be a big fan of Danny Holmes "Ten Steps to Winning". I've seen the new edition and looks like a poor rehash of the original. Any thoughts?