Any Money in the Preakness?

[JustRalph]

I don't know about you guys and gals, but does anybody see any money being made in the Preakness? I have all my War Emblem winning money saved up (and some from a great couple of weeks of Capping) and I am not sure I shouldn't just pass the race......

The race looks like it will go either fast paced because all the trainers are saying they are "not letting WE get away" , or slow again because they are all bluffing. Either way I don't see any real money in the race. Either way I see chalk in the first 2 to 4 spots. I really haven't looked hard at the program, but in a cursory look, it Don't Look Good! Money wise. Any comments?

Does anybody see something I don't. I am going to look real hard at these so called "ambushing Long Shots" but based on a quick look, they look under capitalized......if you know what I mean. Not enough Horsey Hueva's.

[cj]

IMO, only 4 horses (the Derby carryovers) have shown the ability to win this race, and two stand out above the crowd. Unfortunately, they are the 2 the public will bet most. Luckily, there are 12 other races on the card, so oppurtunities abound! Next...

That said, you never know, Charasmatic paid $18+ in the Preakness, so I'll still be watching.

CJ

[rrbauer]

Don't overlook the Pimlico Pick-4 bonanzas on Fri and Sat.

Guaranteed minimum pools and reduced takeout of 14%.
Friday pick 4 on races 4-7 ($50,000 pool) and races
9-12 ($100,000 pool). Saturday on races 4-7 ($200,000
pool) and races 9-12 ($500,000 pool).

Very early post time on Saturday. 10:30am EST.

Weather looks iffy for Saturday. Supposed to rain Friday night and Saturday morning.

[Rick]

Not as much value on this race, but I see it this way:

1. War Emblem
2. Medaglia D'Oro
3. Harlan's Holiday

Booklet can grab the lead, with War Emblem, Harlan's Holdiay, and Menacing Dennis pressing within a couple of lengths and Medaglia D'Oro mid-pack. By the second call, Medaglia D'Oro should make his move and grab a narrow lead, with War Emblem, Booklet, and Harlan's Holiday still close. After that, WE should pull away and nobody can catch him. MDO will close well enough to get second, with HH a close behind third. Booklet should tire and be out of it. Of course, if you think Booklet, with Pat Day, will get a slow pace with nobody pressing ... nah, not too likely. You could like MDO because of his trouble in the KD too, but the rest of his performance wasn't really that impressive anyway.

[tanda]

I consider there to be three legitimate contenders:

1) War Emblem,
2) Medaglia D'Oro and
3) Proud Citizen.

They also happen to be 1,2 and 4 on the morning line. No great disagreements with the public (assuming the ML accurately reflects the public action which it probably will in this race).

Harlan's Holiday is a complete throwout at low or medium odds. He has established that he cannot run fast enough to win this race. So, he needs to improve. But, he does not fit the pattern of an improving horse and there are no indicators that he should improve on Saturday. He appears to be a steady performer who is not quite good enough or needs a layoff/freshening in order to improve. He has raced quite a bit in this form cycle. It would be quite unusual for him to improve and, so, cannot be accepted at the anticipated odds. Sure, he can win, but as an underlay.

Table Limit could shock but also needs to sizeably improve while moving up drastically in class. He has two advantages over Harlan's Holiday: 1) he has not proven that he cannot run fast enough (he appears to be an improving sort) and 2) the bettor will get higher odds but probably not sufficient for the risk either.

At 20:1 or more, I would consider a Table Limit win bet. Otherwise, the logical contenders will be, for the most part, properly bet by the public. Hence, no large overlays and, quite possibly, no small overlays.

[Handle]

I don't agree that HH has established that he can't run fast enough to win this race. His FLA derby race was fast enough to win this race. Earning an E2 of 114 and a late of 100. WE had 105/107 in ILL and 112/105 in the derby.
What bothers me most about HH is that he has not really shown a stretch "pop" in his last two starts as he did in the 3 prior to those.

-Handle

[tdthomas]

Ralph,
Pimlico has put together a very nice card for Saturday. I think there are some great betting races there. The way I see the Preakness, I don't see any big prices coming in, so I won't be putting much money out on the race. I never know for sure what the betting public will do. I think 3-1 on War Emblem would have been fair for the Derby, and look what he paid! There may be some money to be made if the crowd finds a bunch of "Saarlands" to bet on.

[wes]

WAR EMBLEM
PROUD CITIZEN
MEDAGLIA D'ORO
HARLANS HOLIDAY
MENACING
USS TIMOSA

[Rick]

Uh oh. I'm starting to get worried that everyone here likes War Emblem. I hope the public doesn't feel that way too.

[Derek2U]

So, where are all the know-it-alls now?

Do you think I can vacation all summer in the Hamptons on my
looks alone?

So please get busy & (1) POST the Preakness Winner and (2)
DONT write a lotta wordy stuff.

Thanks in advance D2U

[Doug]

IMO for a longshot bet I am betting USS TIMOSA.

Haven't played Cal tracks for a while, but as I remember Hollendorfer is very dangerous when his horses have a 4f work prior to race. Pretty good 4f work too.

Doug

[JimG]

As information, we have a subject in the selections topic on this board for the Preakness picks. If you can make your selections there, we can keep them together for review. Thanks.


Jim

[Richard]

I dont think there will be a slow pace tomorrow in the Preakness.That last Derby was almost a second "Walking Derby"(1891 KD).They're really gonna make WE and MDO work for it.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Richard
I dont think there will be a slow pace tomorrow in the Preakness.That last Derby was almost a second "Walking Derby"(1891 KD).They're really gonna make WE and MDO work for it.

This has already been debated in a forum dedicated to it. I would beg to differ on the Derby pace........it was honest...not slow.

[tanda]

Well, Harlan's Holiday has shown he has not been a 108-115 Beyer horse.

I am assuming it will take that type of number to win.

War Emblem has 112 and 114,
Medaglia D'Oro has a 107
Proud Citizen has a 108.

Additionally, Medaglia D'Oro and Proud Citizen appear to be more likely for improvement.

For those reasons, I believe that it will take a 110+ Beyer to win. Harlan's Holiday has proven that he has never been that fast.

Yes he can improve, but he does not fit the profile for an improving sort and will be 5:1 or lower in all likelihood. So, no play.

His Florida Derby performance would lose badly tommorrow.

[cj]

One thing to learn from this race, win contenders and place contenders are two distinct sets!

CJ

[JustRalph]

I started this thread and pretty much decided that I didn't think there would be much money. I have been doing pretty well lately on Win tickets. I ran some reports this week from the services I play. I realized that I am playing some awful exotic bets. Take out the exotics and I am really killing the winners and my ROI is way up. Well after seeing what I thought was a no money race I started this thread and a couple of nights later I dived into the program for the Preakness and decided that the only way to make any money would be with Exotics. Well...... I played todays race after much study and running about a gazzillion simulations with Equisim. After all was said and done I dumped a little more than a hundred dollars in Ex-and Super Tickets. Well after saying this race had no money in it I ended up with The Exacta for a return of $357 on a $12 key under WE. In my Super bets I nailed the Super on two one dollar key tickets (first one I have ever had for any decent money) I didn't play the Tri like an idiot because I was busy and didn't get back to the computer in time. I did get to watch the race ( I was at work) and we about tore the place down after the race. Some of my guys who work for me took my advice on the exacta and cashed some nice tiks. I also had a super ticket with the #2 on top of WE and the next two also. If that sucker had made it up front, that would have been some real money. I would have been upset that WE got caught by the #2, but I am sure the results and payouts would have soothed me.

So after starting this thread and then making some Money..............just remember, don't pay attention to a word I say in the Future....................:cool: :D :D

[Derek2U]

What is this Equisim I keep hearing about?

Is it contagious? A horse virus?

[cj]

Originally posted by JustRalph
...Well after saying this race had no money in it I ended up with The Exacta for a return of $357 on a $12 key under WE. In my Super bets I nailed the Super on two one dollar key tickets (first one I have ever had for any decent money) ...

Couldn't resist a little redboarding, hey Ralphie?

CJ