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View Full Version : Percentage of winners in the lowest 3 PT odds horse and or ML odds?


danddiver
07-14-2005, 08:27 PM
Does anyone have stats on this?
Thanks in advance to all?

Overlay
07-14-2005, 11:13 PM
At one time, the three horses with the lowest post-time odds in any given race field accounted for two-thirds (roughly 67%) of all winners, but that figure has probably gone up slightly as race fields have gotten smaller. I don't have an analogous figure on morning-line choices, but I would think that it would be fairly similar, especially since I believe the morning line is intended to represent the linemaker's opinion of how the public will bet, rather than the linemaker's own handicapping (unless the linemaker is consistently and significantly wrong in assigning odds, in which case I don't think he or she would last too long at the job).