The old way, Please!

[cj]

What is with these trainers picking these post positions for the Triple Crown races? Most are assuredly smart men, but have brain dumps on these days. Booklet picks the #10 hole, War Emblem #8, I just don't get it. How could the 5 be good enough in a 20 horse field, but not in a 13 horse field with a shorter run to the turn? Maybe I'm missing something, but since when was the inside in a route race such a bad place? You would think Baffert would have learned something by choosing 17 over 1 for Point Given in the Derby last year, I mean hell, it only cost him the TC!

CJ

[andicap]

The only thing I can think of is that trainers like outside posts because they can see who's leaving inside of them. If you're inside you have no choice -- you have to leave.
What I don't understand is that Booklet and WE are probably going to leave no matter what -- or are the PP choices clues that the jocks might try to remain off the pace to keep away from a speed duel.

[Whirlaway]

I think Baffert believes that a lot of the jocks are going to be gunning early and that it will be easier for War Emblem to settle a bit off the pace if he's drawn outside.

--john nichols
http://sportofkings.blogspot.com

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree with Whirlaway...

Since I don't think War Emblem is an absolute need-to-lead type, I say Baffert is believing all the hype that everyone is gunning for him, and he will tell Espinoza that come hell or high water, you DON'T get into any type of early speed melee.....

Espinoza is going to rate War Emblem if he has to half-strangle the horse during the run to the backstretch....at least that's my early impression....



==PA

[cj]

Before being sold, I recall War Emblem's old trainer being quoted as saying War Emblem doesn't take kindly to rating. They tried it a couple times, and even when he won, it was only because of inferior competition, he fought the rider the entire trip. I could be wrong, as always, but rating doesn't seem a very good idea IMO.

CJ

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
You would think Baffert would have learned something by choosing 17 over 1 for Point Given in the Derby last year, I mean hell, it only cost him the TC!

In my opinion, it was not post 17 that was the undoing of Point Given in the Kentucky Derby.

Outside posts have proven successful in recent years. I believe a horse needs to have one of two running styles to be able to come close to being able to cope with post 1 in the Derby .. and that's either having a lot of early acceleration to clear quickly, or having absolutely no early foot to drop right out as soon as the gates pop open .. otherwise, chances for getting crushed along the rail (like Anees) are very, very good.

I personally don't mind the Derby/Preakness post position draws .. there are plenty of other ways a trainer can mess up a horse than drawing a less than ideal post .. which could have happened the good ol' fashioned way anyhow.

[cj]

The outside posts aren't bad if you have little speed and drop back, but being 5-6 wide on BOTH turns while right up near the front is definitely not the way to go. PG certainly showed the speed to gain a contending position from the rail. He was, after all, right up front after losing much ground on the first turn.

I will admit, IMO, it wasn't only the post, but a combination of the 17 hole and Stevens' bad judgement.

CJ

[Observer]

I actually thought a part of Point Given's undoing in the Derby was getting mixed up early in the crush for the first turn trying to gain some decent position from the outside. And while he had shown he could display decent early speed, I was surprised to see him being hustled up in the Derby rather than being allowed to settle into his own stride. To me, Point Given seemed to be the type of horse that was best placing himself .. that's not to say the rider can't stear him into a spot, I just think he was the kind that couldn't be forced into showing early speed or forced into settling back.