Reputation-Induced Phenomenon (RIP)

[ceejay]

Intersting DRF column by Dick Jerardi. http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=66742 Subcriber only so I'll just quote snipits.
Any serious handicapping treatise has to include a chapter on Reputation-Induced Phenomenon (RIP). It does not come up that often. It usually happens in the most significant races. When it does go down, the risk vs. reward potential is always high.

Limehouse and Lava Man entered Saturday's Hollywood Gold Cup with the same last-race Beyer Speed Figure, 112. Limehouse had won the Grade 2 Brooklyn on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Lava Man had won the Grade 2 Californian.

Limehouse was 6-5. Lava Man was 6-1. Why? RIP.

Just before the Gold Cup, they ran the Swaps Stakes. Can somebody please explain how Don't Get Mad was 6-5? This overhyped colt has never hit 100 on the Beyer scale. His running style so eliminated him from contention ...
The winner, Surf Cat, did not offer much value at 8-5. Don't Get Mad offered none at any price.

[Overlay]

Another example of the need to compare winning chances with potential payoffs when handicapping and betting.

[cj]

Brad Free, Byron King, and Dick Jerardi all have good handicapping articles this week in the DRF. Even Steven Crist's is good.

I knocked Jay Hovdey, so I should give credit where it is due.

[Turfday]

Good topic, Ceejay. I love it when a fast-working, well-bred first-time starter from a good barn is overly hyped by the DRF handicappers OR a first-out maiden wins in fast time and is immediately adorned as the next "Secretariat."

IMO the public LOVES to POUND a fast-working, well-bred first-timer even though there may be a solid horse or two in the same race, less heralded and less hyped, who has run well and has an experience edge.

Same goes for the first-out maiden winner trying allowance foes for the first time, especially a couple of them who are proven in the class by running second or third with competitive or near par figures.

This is often the time a sharp player can step in and get favorable odds and use those two above types as "bet againsts" and perhaps using the hype horses only underneath in the exactas.

[OTM Al]

I agree with him about Don't Get Mad. Cashed an easy triple on that race leaving him completely off the ticket. You didn't even have to know how to look into how the speed figs had been achieved to know that there were a lot of horses there who were a whole lot faster than DGM. But then what exactly was his rep anyway? 4th in a crummy Derby with a couple of wins against fishy competiton at the only track he's ever run well at? That wasn't much of a rep to me anyway.

The other is a bit more of a stretch though. Yes, I agree there appeared to be some value with Lava Man at 6-1 and Limehouse looked a big underlay at 6-5. I liked Anziyan Royalty in this race actually......so maybe that tells you how well I had this one figured, but I think some of this RIP talk for this race is a bit of past posting mixed in with a bit of the truth. Back class should mean something too. Limehouse had it and Lava Man had just started acquiring it with his last win. When you look at that in light of the fact that both horses had performed similarly in their last race, I would also be inclined to give a strong edge to Limehouse. Well, evidently Lava Man hadn't peaked and now does appear to have stepped up to big boy level. But this is a decision we face every day at the track...can a horse that had suddenly jumped up to heights he'd never been near before sustain that or will he go bouncing down the beyer slope? I'll still put more faith in a horse that has much more consistantly run well than one that just got there.

[andicap]

Ah,
everyone old is new again. Mark Cramer addressed this issue in his old newsletters and his self published booklet on 11 exotic betting situations.

One of his favorite times to bet into exotics was when a "reputation" horse was in the race who, when looked at closely, really wasn't a solid contender at all due to various form knocks, etc.
We all can remember the BC or Triple Crown horses that come back a month later and lose because they are still puckered out. Or a former stakes horse coming back in a classified allowance race who is not necessarily out to win but to get a race under his belt. Or is just on the downslide, etc.

[sevenall]

Back class is fine..........if the horse is a price. If he's being heavily bet and other horses look as good on figures.....I throw him out.

If I have two horses that look basically the same from a performance standpoint.........I will take the price every time.

I'm looking for horses that the public shouldn't like (because they just stepped up...etc) but have good numbers. Thats the only way I know to make money at this game.