Best and Worst advice you've ever gotten

[andicap]

I was thinking about this today after having a pretty good day at Belmont and realizing that a couple of things I had read or heard had helped me turned the corner a bit as a handicapper/bettor. Some of it on this board.

Worst advice -- You can only win in racing by betting on who you think is the best horse in the race. The "deterministic" school of handicapping that believes there is only 1 horse who can win a given race. This debate is going on at another thread so I won't regurgitate it here. It works for some -- that's fine for them, not knocking it -- but to say you can't win otherwise is the worst advice I have ever heard.

Best advice -- A two-parter because they are related.

1. "Only bet when you have a firm opinion about something in the race and then act on it."

Can't remember in which book I read this, but it's gold.
That opinion could range from, "There is a false favorite in the race," to "The 7 horse is incredibly underbet at 8-1."
It's amazing how often I used to bet and after the race say to myself, "I had no real opinion on that race and yet I spread $20 around on exotics." Invariably I'd lose.

1A/ "Let the winner come to you."

I hope Keilan, who tutored me on this piece of advice (and is one of the sharpest handicappers on this board), doesn't mind me sharing it because it has changed my play 100% for the better this year. Briefly, I don't go crazy anymore trying to figure out who will win. Instead I look for races in which I have a firm opinion about a longshot or (two if the odds permit) that I like and structure my win, exacta, tri bets accordingly. Often I will think a longshot has a great chance to finish in the money due to pace considerations and instead of worrying about the winner I bet around the longshot with my logical contenders.
For example, today at Belmont's 8th I thought the 7 was way underbet at 8-1 (6-1 alas at post time.) so I structured my bet so that I would make a good profit if he finished 1-2-3. The result: a $290 trifecta hit in a 6-horse field and a 4-1 payoff for my horse finishing third. Beats betting to show.


Thanks, Keilan!
:cool:

[Light]

"You cannot develop a pattern for success unless you know what the losers do. If you do everything the opposite,you will probably be successful".

(quote from a pro earning $250k a year)

[joeyspicks]

1A/ "Let the winner come to you."


This is a terrific way of stating how to play.

What some do not seem to want to see (or unable to see) is that in the majority of races there is no clear cut (black and white) BEST HORSE.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Worst advice I ever got was to that the horse was being stiffed to get a price next time.
Best was that contrarian thinking was OK if it works for me.

[twindouble]

The best adivice I ever got was. " If you don't have a clear edge in gambling, don't bet."

The worst was. " Don't play the horses, you'll lose your shirt."

[fishorsechess]

From an 80 year old German handicapper I used to know, now
dead.
"Don't listen to anyone" (do your own handicapping)

[Bubbles]

1A/ "Let the winner come to you."


This is a terrific way of stating how to play.

What some do not seem to want to see (or unable to see) is that in the majority of races there is no clear cut (black and white) BEST HORSE.

I agree 100%. This is probably why I tend to shy away from most grass races at the NYRA tracks. There are anywhere from 3-5 horses that have a solid chance, and half of those will probably be beaten by the trip they get.

Worst advice: Bet the horse heavy, you'll laugh all the way to the bank. Worked for Richard Dreyfuss, not for me. :D

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The best advice i have ever received was to always be in total control of your emotions at the race track...in control while winning money and also while losing money.

The worst advice was the old "theres a winner in every race".I quess this piece of advice is good for degenerate gamblers who must dance every dance.:ThmbDown:

[Zman179]

Best advice: You know what? I have absolutely nothing to say here. I've never really had any good advice given to me. And I've been playing for 23 years.

Worst advice: I DO have something for this part. It was: "Never play the trotters, they're fixed." If I had listened to that advice, then I would've missed out on 80% of my IRS tickets and I would've missed out on all of my biggest all-time hits.

[Nickle]

Best advice=stay away from exotics
Worst Advice =Play larger fields

[keilan]

1A/ "Let the winner come to you."

I hope Keilan, who tutored me on this piece of advice (and is one of the sharpest handicappers on this board), doesn't mind me sharing it :cool:


That's your opinion, personally I think the guy is clueless and not only that he has a problem comprehending more than two or three words strung together. :lol: :lol:

Andi nice to see ya still cashing

Best advice –listening to these two guys

Our own rr gave me a valuable little program of his that excludes combinations that I don’t wish to play, the best program I’ve ever seen when structuring p4, p6 tickets. Among other things he also taught me how to be a winning player in Southern California which was no easy task. Cj is top-shelf on just about everything connected to horseplaying, one of the best young minds in the game period. Tireless working and continues to grow in his knowledge of the sport. There are many good players here but these two guys stand out above the crowd for me, I like guys that consistently pick decent price winners. :)

[46zilzal]

Beyond a certain point, one's handicapping does not really IMPROVE, but knowledge PARTICULAR to the specific tracks you play takes over to agument your achievements. The area where the majority of people fail is discipline in waiting to utilize these tools when the value is there. Disicpline is really un-teachable but just requires PRACTICE.

Keeping a journal so as to review YOUR OWN choices (and why) as well as your wagering solutions (and why) is the best advice I ever came across other than MAKING a wagering choice in every race you believe you know and NOT LYING TO YOURSELF afterward in saying "Yeah, I had that" when, in fact, you did not. In the long run you wind up being more honest with yourself and find out your own weaknesses.

[Overlay]

Best: Bet for value, rather than just trying to pick winners.

Worst: Don't play every race (as a blanket rule). (If you have an edge in the odds, playing more races increases your chances of success.)(I'm not saying that I do play every race, but I view every race as potentially bettable. I don't exclude any particular race type or category automatically, and I always lean toward more betting activity rather than less. If I can't find value in a win bet, I'll look for it in the exotic pools.)

[shanta]

Best- always bet a little with a chance to win a lot

worst- don't bet horses with bad jockeys


:ThmbUp:

[The Judge]

Best advice is the reverse of Shanta "don't bet a Battle Ship to win a Canoe" and "a horse that runs on the lead my still be a sustained horse".

Worst advice "There is nothing new in handicapping".

[KingChas]

Best: 25 cent investment-highlite pen-If you handicap the day before like I do something catches your eye that night in the form.The next day at the track you forgot.Highlite it! Also works wonders with turf races easier to concentrate just on the horses grass races when highlighted.Also if you want to seperate different distances.

Worst Advice: Reading any horseracing pubs the week of the Kentucky Derby.Don't do it! ;)

[speculus]

Best 1. LOSE. But don't lose the lesson. (a quote by The Dalai Lama)

Best 1A. Learn to unlearn. (My dad)


Worst 1. Time is important only if you are in jail. (Read it somewhere)

Worst 1A. The best and the worst jockey can make a difference of maximum one length to a horse's performance. (Andy Beyer in one of his books)

[betchatoo]

Best: If you can look at he chalk and say, He can't win, you have a bettable race

Worst: Stay away from maiden races, they're unbeatable

[shanta]

Worst Advice[/B]: Reading any horseracing pubs the week of the Kentucky Derby.Don't do it! ;)


Good one Chas!

:ThmbUp:

[rastajenk]

Best: Perry Ouzts on the turf at River Downs...

Worst: Uhhh, Ouzts on the turf at River...... :confused:


:D

[tonto1944]

I was at Belmont many years ago about 30 yrs. We had a friend who was a workout rider and a cashier during the racing day. He gave me a horse named Blue Rinse. The horse according to him was a stable walker ,meaning he never had a realygood sleep. This particular day he was racing and our friend Joe said bet the farm. and I told my wife and a couple of guys were next to us they were from the barn area and they looked it. They over heard me tell my wife and they advised me agaimnst betting the horse because he was lame.

Well istead of listening to Joe we only put $5 win,place and show. We were going to bet the whole load on the horseabout $80 and back then that was a lot of money.
Well the horse won by 7 or more lengths and paid $38 w $18 pl and $9 to show. We were gonna put the whole $80 to win and if we lost go home early. Needless to say whenever he told us to bet the farm on a horse again we always did. We made some nice scores with him.
He used to work horses for Lucian Laurin and Jerkins and a couple others. He even gave us Arbees Boy the day he paid $128 to win .

[cnollfan]

Best advice: Don't hang out at the track with people who aren't happy when you win.

Worst advice: Avoid sharing handicapping information with anyone else. A group of good-natured sharp handicappers can provide valuable info for each other.

[twindouble]

Best advice: Don't hang out at the track with people who aren't happy when you win.

Worst advice: Avoid sharing handicapping information with anyone else. A group of good-natured sharp handicappers can provide valuable info for each other.

I agree, the trouble with me is, I've lost a few of those good-natured handicappers of late and nothing made me any happier when anyone of us made a score, ESP when we did it as a team.

Good luck

[headhawg]

Worst advice: "Stop playing when you're in the middle of a cold streak."

For one thing, losing streaks are the nature of the handicapping beast, so you better accept them or try another game. And two, how do you know that you're in 'the middle'? The next bet could be the $20 horse that you scoped out.

Best advice: I sold a handicapping book to a member here a couple of years ago. He told me about the Pace Advantage board which I did not know about. Rock and roll. :)

BTW, if you are still lurking, thanks KyRacer.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Best Advice: You'll never have enough money on the winner. (The only, and extremely rare exception to this, would be having the only winning ticket in the pool, like a Pick 6, or a huge Pick 4 or Superfecta, etc.)

Worst Advice: Put the same amount of money into every race you bet, whether it's the straight or exotic wagers. (Too easy to start off overbetting compared to one's bankroll right off the bat, esp. on the riskier exotics. Plus, what if you're really good or bad at a particular type of wager.)

Second Worst Advice (I never fell for this one, at least): Always bet Win, Double Place and Triple Show. (Which ones, if any, are an overlay today, or in your longer-term wagering? Which ones, if any, are returning a profit? Do your selections win far more often than run 3rd, or do they run 2nd & 3rd far more often than they win? How strong is the favorite, if you're betting against it, as this will greatly impact your place and show prices. If you're good at picking winners at an overlayed price, do you really want only 1/6th of your betting money on something you do well?)

[highnote]

TWINDOUBLE already said this, but I got the same advice, too, so I'll say it again: Bet only when you have an edge.

Also: Never overbet. Overbetting leads to gambler's ruin.

An old-time handicapper told me this one. He's in his late 80's now. He made his living playing the horses. He played Mountaineer Park for many years -- mostly when it was still Waterford Park. So this advice may not apply to exotic bettors. He said, "If you have a race with one favorite, you can beat the race. But if there are two favorites then skip the race."

I think his point was that it's a lot easier for your longshot to beat one favorite than it is to beat two favorites. Nowadays, with exotics, you can structure your bets to make money on this kind of race.

Here are two of my favorite Pittsburgh Phil quotes:

"A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet."

"Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work."

[freeneasy]

one of the best: never try to learn from anyone who is not willing to put their money where there mouth is
worst: always bet your hunches

[twindouble]

Best: 25 cent investment-highlite pen-If you handicap the day before like I do something catches your eye that night in the form.The next day at the track you forgot.Highlite it! Also works wonders with turf races easier to concentrate just on the horses grass races when highlighted.Also if you want to seperate different distances.

Worst Advice: Reading any horseracing pubs the week of the Kentucky Derby.Don't do it! ;)

Hi King; Not knocking your highliting but what cracked me up was, I remember one guy at the track that used many different colors in marking his form with notes, highlites and symbols. No kidding, it looked like bizarre modern art when he was done. I wish I had one today, I could frame it as sell it on e-bay. LOL

[Fastracehorse]

'You can't make money in investments without independent thinking.'

fffastt

[JustMissed]

I see you have been a member here for only two weeks and have already passed 100 post. WOW. :eek:

I'm certain that is a record for the PA board and maybe even for all horse racing boards.


JM ;)

[joeyspicks]

Worst: You can only make money betting exotics (A. Beyer in one of his books)

Best: "NEVER take advice from someone who ain't winning"

2nd best: check out paceadvantage.com!;)

really! ..................... It led me to discover a whole new generation of software and eventually Netcapper.
thanks..

[KingChas]

Hi King; Not knocking your highliting but what cracked me up was, I remember one guy at the track that used many different colors in marking his form with notes, highlites and symbols. No kidding, it looked like bizarre modern art when he was done. I wish I had one today, I could frame it as sell it on e-bay. LOL

LMAO- Yes Twin I have seen some Picasso's myself! :D I'm personally a one color man.Don't overdo it.Used to years ago.I might highlight a horse coming back within a week or a few other little specs here and there-strictly PINK.
Thanks for the laugh----- :D

[freeneasy]

I see you have been a member here for only two weeks and have already passed 100 post. WOW. :eek:

I'm certain that is a record for the PA board and maybe even for all horse racing boards.


JM ;)

that record has got to belong to vet scratch, she must of had 100 by the end of her first day on the board here :D

[Steve 'StatMan']

We had one guy at Sportmans about a decade ago. We used to refer to him as Crayola Man.

Seemed a bit over the top, so no one (from our group at least) wanted to ask Crayola Man about his methods. 6-8 different colors, at least, by First Post time anyway, and still coloring away!

[Steve 'StatMan']

that record has got to belong to vet scratch, she must of had 100 by the end of her first day on the board here :D

Yes, and vet scratch gave the impression of being a female, so that drew in a lot of people.

Heck, I even saved a copy of the Xena avatar! ;)

[takeout]

He said, "If you have a race with one favorite, you can beat the race. But if there are two favorites then skip the race."
What was his definition of two favorites in a race, odds-wise?

[BIG RED]

Hindsight is easy...............predicting two minutes in the future is impeccable :cool:

[highnote]

What was his definition of two favorites in a race, odds-wise?

He didn't say. Good question, though.

[Zman179]

Best advice: You know what? I have absolutely nothing to say here. I've never really had any good advice given to me.

You know what? There is actually one thing that an old friend told me that has saved me a lot of money. It was: "If you handicap every race on a single card, and you have a strong opinion on almost every race (or on every race), skip the card. It just never seems to work out."

And it's true. I cannot count how many times over the years that I have handicapped a 9 race card and came up with 7 or 8 races that I liked. And I can count on one hand how many times that I've made a profit on that card and still have fingers left over. Case in point: Friday's card at Rockingham. I handicapped all eleven races and liked nine of them. I skipped the card. If I had played, I would've gone 1 for 9.

[linrom1]

Cardinal rule of gambling--never bet on a long shot!

[takeout]

He didn't say. Good question, though.
Thanks. I guess it’s just common sense but I was curious as to whether he used any set parameters.

[JackS]

Playing Cal Expo many years ago, I was staying at a hotel in downtown Sacramento. Sitting at the bar one evening I met a Jock who was riding during this meet and of course we began talking horses. I revealed to him my DD pick for the next day and he immediatly began to insist that he would ride the winner in the second half.
I allowed myself to be swayed by his insistance so I got off my original bet and got on this next best thing from the horses mouth, the jockey.
My original bet went wire to wire while my failed bet made a late charge but came up a nose too short. Lesson learned, don't ask jockeys for any meaningful opinion even if well meant.

[cnollfan]

I got off my original bet and got on this next best thing from the horses mouth, the jockey.
My original bet went wire to wire while my failed bet made a late charge but came up a nose too short. Lesson learned, don't ask jockeys for any meaningful opinion even if well meant.

The lesson I would learn from that would be to have faith in my original analysis. New information might convince me to add a new horse, but not to subtract my original horse.