the Secret!

[joeyspicks]

Actually there is NO secret:sleeping:

however now that I have your attention..........

Something I seldom ever see discussed.......Making the transition from "good handicapper" to income earner. A often neglected subject I would like to bring up.......

It is simply much more exciting to play the horses than to make a long term profit. I hope I can adequately explain what the hell I mean. In my own experience it was a lot more "fun" and exciting in the old days. I mean I was a pretty good handicapper (dangerous).....playing as I saw fit....basically no structure, no betting plan, no set bankroll. I HANDICAPPED as if that was all I needed to do. I was pretty good and had some fantastic days. But more often than not I would let a good day slip away by playing exotics wildly and without a betting structure. Its EXCITING to hit a $68 exacta with a $20 box or a $1200+ tri. A Pick 3 at $400+ with two or more tickects.

But more often than not I would come to that critical race of the day that I HAD TO win. I had way to much invested in it or its the back end of a double etc...you know what I mean. IF I was lucky enough to hit THAT play or couple of plays I went home a winner....if not....well:ThmbDown:

Many, many, many times I went home a loser when I had picked enough winners to be at profit. IT WAS EXCITING AS HELL....but I was losing a lot and becoming convinced it was IMPOSSIBLE to make any kind of consistent profits. I think many players stay at this level for there entire horse playing career. Note: I am talking about "GOOD" handicappers.

It's simply not as exciting to:

a) have a plan.......with the RIGHT SIZE BANKROLL

b)play according to that plan
no race is more important than the last

c) have realistic goals in relationship to bankroll

If your bankroll is $500...please dont think your goal should be $1000/wk

When you make this TRANSITION you find its not nearly as exciting ( as in a "rush" type exciting....or thrills).....you soon learn to be excited by the prospect of long term profits.

If this whole subject seems like "what the hell"?....please disregard.... but I WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED if anyone who HAS MADE this transition doesnt understand and agree.

thanks for listening.....and I would be very interested in comments.

Joe

[twindouble]

Many, many, many times I went home a loser when I had picked enough winners to be at profit. IT WAS EXCITING AS HELL....but I was losing a lot and becoming convinced it was IMPOSSIBLE to make any kind of consistent profits. I think many players stay at this level for there entire horse playing career. Note: I am talking about "GOOD" handicappers.

Hi Joe; From what your saying I would clasify you as an action player. The fact that you brought up the subject is a start. Right now I have to skip out for the afternoon but I'll be around tonight to kick the subject around if you care to.

Good luck today.

[wes]

If you use a program that you can scratch the horses.
Delete out the horses you think have no chance for a few days. Keep track of your results. You may just find that you are a better handicapper than you thought you were. You do the selection of the true contenders and let the program do the math for you.

You do not get a chance to place your brain in action, if you have turned all your handicapping over to a computer program. If you cut you handicapping teeth on the Daily Racing Form. You may be a lot better at picking the true contenders than any program you have used or using.



wes

[kenwoodallpromos]

Having a bankroll is fine- having a plan for me includes sticking to a set amount to bet based on what I can afford- But recalculaing a % of the bankroll on every bet would be drugery for me.
Control in several ways is crucial- capping and planning; finding value; emotions; betting; quitting while ahead.
You can be a good handicapper but if you do not manage money decently it will go away. That is true about all money matters in life.
I have often seen at the track or OTB's emotions run and ruin a person's day.

[twindouble]

If you use a program that you can scratch the horses.
Delete out the horses you think have no chance for a few days. Keep track of your results. You may just find that you are a better handicapper than you thought you were. You do the selection of the true contenders and let the program do the math for you.

You do not get a chance to place your brain in action, if you have turned all your handicapping over to a computer program. If you cut you handicapping teeth on the Daily Racing Form. You may be a lot better at picking the true contenders than any program you have used or using.



wes

Hi wes; Ok, sounds good. Post your picks or e-mail them to me and I'll go for the ride. Nothing ventured nothing gained, right? Just don't send me 4 horses in a 7 horse field, make it the winner in a 10 or 12.

Thanks.

[joeyspicks]

hey TWINDOUBLE,

thats it exactly......an ACTION player is what I ONCE WAS. That is my point....you cannot win long term playing this way.

I think a lot of players never face up to that fact......it took me years. Ken you hit on the other factor.....EMOTIONS. It is not easy to stick to a plan when all is going wrong. You must do the work and really believe in what you are doing.

I think it was Sartin who got into horse racing trying to help habitual gamblers. When he convinced himself that the races could be beat....he tried to teach these men how they could win......every one of them QUIT playing rather than make the real effort it takes to win. They would RATHER keep losing....than learn how to win. In other words they would rather GAMBLE (ie get something for nothing) than maintain the EFFORT it takes to become profitable. There is a lot to learn in this little tale.

A lot of players have yet to face this. I see the search for a "black box" as a symptom of wanting something for nothing. (No effort on your part and the programmer has taken care of all decisions........seems rather silly when taken in this context....right?). Proper money management helps...but again it is not the "ANSWER".

The complete answer includes handicapping to be sure. Money management.
Emotion awareness. Know yourself and what is good for YOU. ( EXAMPLE: I VERY seldom play track exotics anymore) and (CONFESSION TIME: I sometimes play favorites.....gasp:D ).....but I play a specific mix of plays depending on the days races. I know pretty much how many races I need to play to reach my goals). It is highly indivualistic and a great range of plays (I know a player who ONLY plays Super's). KNOW YOURSELF!

[wes]

twindouble

That would not be your picks if I gave them to you. I do not bet other peoples picks nor do I give any out.

wes

[keilan]

Come on Wes, throw him a couple-of-bones :D

[twindouble]

twindouble

That would not be your picks if I gave them to you. I do not bet other peoples picks nor do I give any out.

wes

wes, I was just pulling your leg, I wouldn't let a computer program spoil everything I enjoy about the game.

Good luck

[Overlay]

While there may be no such thing as a black box, I find that a quantitative, standardized approach to handicapping, where I've developed sufficient confidence in the fundamental soundness and reliability of the factors I'm using, and in the way that I'm applying them, helps minimize emotion-based decisions, and also tides me through whatever dry spells may come along. And the "action lover" in me gets sufficient gratification from being able to play more frequently due to betting with the percentages rather than against them, and taking advantage of varying wagering possibilities (win bets as well as exotics).

[BIG RED]

twindouble

That would not be your picks if I gave them to you. I do not bet other peoples picks nor do I give any out.

wes

Since when have you been silent in the war room? Hehe. Keep them good prices coming wes! :cool:

[twindouble]

Joey; That's good your over the hump, hats off to you! As been said, there's not many people that can do an about face playing the horses.

On your other comments I dont disagree with the theme at all but on another note, I believe handicapping and gambling go hand and hand, to deny your gambling and cloaking it as a money managed investment can hurt you. I consider myself a handicapper gambler, only because I know it's a mistake to limit yourself when it comes to making money. I will step out and gamble when the edge is there, so wagering fixed amounts puts limits on the bankroll, I wager according to how I see the race or races measuring what the potential payoff might be.

For example, if I come up with a couple key horses that have value in the picks, I'm not about to let it slip by and except a fraction of the pool or lose by not investing enough. ESP when the potential is there to take it all or a good percentage of it. I can give you many examples where it's important to be flexable with your wagering bankroll.

Good luck and I've got a couple buddies you can talk to that are die hard action players.