Helpful ROI Formula

[Derek2U]

Just read the comments about Fierro's book and I thought of
posting these ideas: First, all this talk of "Value" in racing is
not helpful, perhaps even misleading. Almost every race has
horses of "Value" --- and many, many of them win --- and many,
many of them lose. Second, if your average winners pay $9.00
or less, your should be picking about 35% winners or else pack
it in. If you don't keep real, accurate records of ALL your bets,
please do so. Finally, you DO NOT need to create any ODDS LINE; that's just useless math. Instead, develop an alternate
formula that tells you--- with total 100% certainty --- if the money
your about to wager on your Key Horse would be better spent
on Exotics or TO WIN. Now, for me, the Question is always this:
Do I plunk down my $$$$ on the Horse's NOSE to WIN or do I
use my Key Horse ON TOP in Exactas (or Doubles). Boxing is a
strategy based on minimizing Losses ; it's based on Fear/Uncertainty. Only when you know what % winners you
pick --- consistently, over-time --- should you then address a
betting formula. Just to tantalize you further of my approach,
I can absolutely assure you of this: you can increase your ROI
by an easy 6-10% this way.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Derek2U
Instead, develop an alternate
formula that tells you--- with total 100% certainty --- if the money
your about to wager on your Key Horse would be better spent
on Exotics or TO WIN. Now, for me, the Question is always this:
Do I plunk down my $$$$ on the Horse's NOSE to WIN or do I
use my Key Horse ON TOP in Exactas (or Doubles).



Boxing is a
strategy based on minimizing Losses ; it's based on Fear/Uncertainty. Only when you know what % winners you
pick --- consistently, over-time --- should you then address a
betting formula.


>>


Derek, I'm a bit confused by the post. You mention a helpful ROI formula, but give none.

So how do you decide when to bet to win or exotics? Isn't that what we all want to figure out? I sure would.
What do you mean by a "betting formula?" Is that what you mean by "Helpful ROI formula"? You haven't really stated anything about it here.


AD

[Derek2U]

Yeah AD the Formula mentioned is a wagering one that helps
you decide -- for me -- what course of action I should take:
Do I Bet my KEY Horse strictly TO WIN or do I take that same
amount of money & spread it over others in Exactas with my
Key horse ONLY on top. Now thats what my formula answers
with 100% certainty & that's how I've managed to make nearly
8% more money using that formula.

[Show Me the Wire]

AD:

You might want to try this formula divide the lowest paying exacta by the odds and the quotient should tell you if it is better to bet the exotic or win eg. Lowest payoff $16., odds 2:1 ($16/2=$8.) The formula is the basis for deciding if it is better to invest your $8. in exotics or win. In other words do you invest in 4 exacta combos to possibly receive a minimum payoff of $16. or do you just put $8. on the nose.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[Derek2U]

yeah ... cool ... You & I agree in spirit ... but at what point
can you calculate just what to do & how .... how do you decide
what horses go under your key in exactas .... that seems like
your next step.

[Lefty]

$9.00 avg price and you need 35% winners? Hey ain't that a 65% ROI? Don't know anyone packin' that kind of ROI. 25% wins gets you a 12.5% ROI and guys like Barry Meadow would be envious of it. Hey make that first one 57.5% ROI still kinda impossible over the long haul, don'tcha think. Hey, math guys, i'm in the ball park here, be gentle.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Derek2U
yeah ... cool ... You & I agree in spirit ... but at what point
can you calculate just what to do & how .... how do you decide
what horses go under your key in exactas .... that seems like
your next step.

Huh? Is this some kind of a guessing game? I give up - I'll stick to betting to win.

AD

[Derek2U]

hehe ... You sound perplexed .... It's really simple: Say Your
key horse is #4 and you have $50 set aside to bet on him.

Do you bet the $50 to Win on #4 or do you take the $50 & spread
it on Exactas with the #4 on Top?

Yes, of course, maybe you want zero tickets on the 4-5 Combo;
and maybe you decide to buy three 4-6 pics; but, whatever you
do, you only have $50 to spend & you have to know 2 things:

What are the final odds on the #4 to Win & what are the Exacta
payoffs. Your formula does the hard math.

Can you see what I mean?

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Derek2U
hehe ... You sound perplexed

I guess I'm a bit perplexed, but not by the math. You posted "Helpful ROI formula", but no formula. I imagine I can guess what it is, but was just curious if it was something different than what I thought. A few months back when I was asked about the profit maximization techniques for betting two horses, I posted the precise formulae from my paper on this site. I just assumed that was what you had in mind.

AD

[Jeff P]

hehe ... You sound perplexed .... It's really simple: Say Your
key horse is #4 and you have $50 set aside to bet on him.

Do you bet the $50 to Win on #4 or do you take the $50 & spread
it on Exactas with the #4 on Top?


Derek-

Here's the way I handle it. Take 80% of that $50.00 and bet it on your key horse to win. If the horse wins you were right about the race and you WILL collect a nice win ticket- hopefully at a nice win price.

Take the other 20% of that $50.00 and bet it in the exotics- exacta, double, pick three, trifecta (you decide where you think you have the best shot at a major league payoff given the situation)- using whatever combinations make sense to you. If you are lucky enough to have your key horse win AND you also manage to cash the exotic part of your bet you are going to win a ton of money.

This will do two things for you:

1. Because you only have $10.00 for the exotic part of the bet, it will force you to THINK and adopt a philosophy where you become DISCIPLINED in your approach. I only have $10.00 to spend, now WHERE am I going to get the most bang for my buck with a sensible chance to actually cash?

2. When your key horse DOES win the race and you still couldn't come up with the other half of that exacta or the third leg of that pick three you will NOT feel like the world's biggest dope. Why? Because you HAD the horse to win AND IT WON. You were right about the race and you CASHED.

Believe me, there is no feeling on earth quite like the following:
You handicapped the race correctly. You identified a 12-1 shot as your key horse and it WON the race. Yet you LOST MONEY on the race because you only bet the exacta. And, wouldn't you know it? You finished first and third. Trust me, when this happens you can't help but feel like the world's biggest dope.