View Full Version : Cj Pace figures,are they for real....They are!!!!!!
I am on my way home with the late DD yet to go.I walk by a teller and I am holding $3.00 dollars in my hand. So I say to the teller give me a $1.00. late double at Belmont with the 3,4,5 and Pacefigures top number in the 10Th
[ MSW ] #11 New Dimension. I watch the # 4 win the 9Th and when I get home BANG!!! Pacefigures top figure #11 wins and pays $34.40 DD $172.50
[ I get half.]
I ran the TSN file,but a friend tells me CJ put Belmont card on his site for free today.
joeyspicks
07-02-2005, 08:13 PM
I have said it before and I 'll say it again. You can win with several diferent "methods" (handicapping). Amazing but true the free figures CJ posts daily are absolutely good enough to make a profit.....shortterm AND longterm if you supply the Patience, discipline, money management, AND proper bankroll size.
This Joey ("broken record") signing off!:lol:
Yeah Joey,
Top pacefigure,...17-1... good jockey....what more can you ask for to take
a shot.
andicap
07-02-2005, 10:17 PM
Do you mean best figure last race?
Do you mean best figure last race at this distance structure?
Do you mean best figure in last 3 races?
Do you mean best figure in a horse's last race except when he has an excuse?
If the race is a sprint are you including routes??
What about off-tracks? Are you just using fast tracks to define "top figure?"
And if you are using best last race, are you accounting for aberrant figures that a horse may have gotten on a clear lead when he won't see the front again? Or the horse just woke up that day and is likely to bounce today because he's never run anything within 15 points of that figure in 3 years?
Yes, at 16-1 I'll bet the best figure on CJ's PPs. Just tell me which number you mean.
I've never understood when people post and say a horse has the "top figure."
There are a zillion ways to interpret the PPs and find the top figure.
I believe Ragozin discovered he made a small profit blindly betting best of last 3 at 4-1 or over.
Nice hit, John.
Were you using CJ's 4-step method?
No Tom, I just started using Cj's work. I am not familiar with the 3 step method. Maybe you would like to explain.Also can not find out why some figures are in bold black numbers,other in gray.
Andi, You and I went to different schools. While you were at New York State I was at Garden State.
what I don't understand is why some handicappers can't believe in the figures
This horse ran the same distance in the same class and finished 2nd twice in his only 2 starts of his life
Here is Pacefigures chart for the race.
Race # 10 MSW 6 furlong
1 CALL THE THUNDER 69 79
2 PREACHER'S TALE 65 64 66
3 ZAMGO 81
4 POPULAR DELUSIONS 79 68
5 CRAFTY DAHL 68 77 16 48 53
6 CHILI CAT 1st
7 MY FRIEND C. Z. 1st
8 WILD COUNTRY 81 67 75
9 CLEAR INTENTIONS 79
10 SALTNVINEGAR 72 78
***11 NEW DIMENSION 85 53 ***
85 is the highest figure in the whole race and the 2nd best ability time.....end of story.
We will discuss this more at Saratoga.
John
keilan
07-02-2005, 11:30 PM
Andy,
John is referring to the power number, furthest number to the right.
PaceAdvantage
07-03-2005, 04:18 AM
I've never understood when people post and say a horse has the "top figure."
There are a zillion ways to interpret the PPs and find the top figure.
How very true...especially when one (like me), likes to PROJECT a figure based on patterns in the past....
How very true...especially when one (like me), likes to PROJECT a figure based on patterns in the past....
That is why the PP are called "past" performances.
That 10th race was horrible to handicap. I felt that the track was extremely fast.A earlier race, 2nd race for 6 furlong was run in 107.3/5. 3nd race,MSW was run in 108 4/5. Both races, winners were on the lead at the top of the stretch. I knew that,New Dimension, had early speed to stay on the pace. Being Pacefigures top rating and good early fractions I keyed him in the DD.
Andicap ,I hope the above explains a little better why I bet him.
panda1
07-03-2005, 10:15 AM
John,
I told you just look at the numbers and when everything is a go you bet.......I have been using CJ figs for about 21/2 months now and have a nice little profit.......Do i win everyday ? of course not........ but i can honestly say that i win more days than i lose and isn't that what all of us are trying to do in the long run.........I really don't give a rat ass what critics have to say about CJ's figs........I WIN with them and in my little world thats all that matters........In my 28 years of playing the horses this is the most fun i ever had. :cool: .........Cangrats on your daily double John and keep working with the figs and there are plenty more where they came from. :jump:
As I like to say, the numbers are what they are. :)
The measure how well a horse has run in the past, period. Hopefully, they do it better than anyone else does. I have little doubt they are better than anything in BRIS files or the Daily Racing Form. But, you still have to handicap the races!
As for yesterday's 10th, I don't see how anyone could look at my numbers and come up with any other horse than the 11, even at half the price he paid. Unfortunately, most aren't this easy as we all know.
CJ, the point I was trying to make to Andicap, [ and I have the upmost respect for my friend Andi.] is that he enjoys disecting a race from all angles. Nobody at the Sartoga last year handicaps in detail the way Andicap does.....When I do to much details I end up with the favorite.
Like Pandy1 said, If you feel the best Pacefigure fit the race.run to the window with blinkers on so that you are not distracted by the tote board.or the other handucappers around you. in the long run you will be ahead.
cj, your program is a nice piece of work,you should be proud of yourself
panda1
07-04-2005, 06:01 PM
Another huge day of profits using CJ figs at CD on Monday :jump: .......Just when you think it can get any better........ It does :cool: Thanks CJ :p
I want a report from PA!
(Thanks Panda)
PaceAdvantage
07-04-2005, 11:41 PM
Unfortunately, I didn't get to handicap that much this week....so I have little to report, other than I like what I see in the limited amount of time I've had to study the numbers.
Heck, I don't even know what a number in ITALICS is supposed to indicate, or for that matter, what a ' next to a number means....
I do know that * indicates a winning effort, and that bold indicates a race at today's distance (within a half a furlong).
I know there is a users' guide, but like I said, I haven't had a lot of time to get into the numbers....
andicap
07-04-2005, 11:44 PM
That is why the PP are called "past" performances.
That 10th race was horrible to handicap. I felt that the track was extremely fast.A earlier race, 2nd race for 6 furlong was run in 107.3/5. 3nd race,MSW was run in 108 4/5. Both races, winners were on the lead at the top of the stretch. I knew that,New Dimension, had early speed to stay on the pace. Being Pacefigures top rating and good early fractions I keyed him in the DD.
Andicap ,I hope the above explains a little better why I bet him.
Thanks, John, I didn't mean to rant at you -- just a general pet peeve about a phrase I see everywhere, not just here.
But yes, your horse definiately had the top figure no questions asked.
But as way of example I have attached a file from HTR using the Cramer speed figures. It is from Monmouth race 9 on Saturday. The chart represents the top figures for the last 6 months going back 5 pacelines max for each horse. Races must have been on same surface (Dirt, turf) and within 1 furlong of today's distnce.
Which horse owns the "top figure?" Is it the 2, River Belle, with a 99 two races back? But that was 112 days ago and horse is coming off a 77-day layoff.
Well, then it could be the 7, Fortunate Damsel with a 98 from her last race 22 days ago. I presume that's what most people would consider the top figure horse.
But if the 2 had won, I could have claimed I bet on the top figure horse as well.
Furthermore, Fortunate Damsel's race was at 8f, not 8.5 from today. At 8.5f, the horse's record was 0-0-1.
Next at 96 come River Belle again, with her last race 77 days ago at today's distance, and the 3, Lentil, with a race 2 back, but 127 days ago at 8.5f
OK, both of them ran at today's distance, but some people might say 77 and 127 days were too long ago to qualify as "top figure." They might demand the race be within a month or 45 days or even 60 days.
The 5, Brunhilda is next with a 95 only 34 days ago in her last race. But again it's at 8.0f, not 8.5f.The horse's record is inconclusve at the distance. 2 races with an 0-1-0 record. But her figures at 8.5f are much inferior to the 8.0f race.
andicap
07-04-2005, 11:48 PM
pressed the send button by mistake
Anyway to wrap this up,
the 5 ran 8.5f three races back and did an 88 Cramer at a much slower pace than her 8.0 furlong race and today's expected pace. So there's little evidence she wants 8.5f.
Then we go to the 9, Smart N Classy, who in her last race 21 days ago had a 92 at 8.5furlongs. Recent, today's exact distance and in 6 races at 8.5f, she's
1-3-1.
The race came in 9-3.
The point is tho you could have made a case for a few of these horses as the "top figure" depending on your own guidelines.
andicap
07-04-2005, 11:51 PM
correction. The race is from Monmouth's 9 race on Sunday. Long weekend.
Nickle
07-12-2005, 05:03 PM
What is the site for CJ figures?
panda1
07-12-2005, 05:27 PM
Pacefigures.com
46zilzal
07-12-2005, 06:41 PM
horse ran today (7/12/05) at Prairie Meadows named Cjay
Colonial Downs results.
Is there a story line here. Actual results so far at Colonial.
Race 1 Fabulous Numbers $8
Race 2. Miss Stacked $7
Race 3 Brian Scratched $3(sic)
Race 4 Unbridled Behaviour $7
Race 5 Mr. Song and Dance $6
Race 6 Julies Diamond. $92.00!
kingfin66
07-12-2005, 09:19 PM
CJ, or anybody else versed in the figs, please help. When I bring up the performance figs, what number do I look at? Is is the number on the left - the first number in the row - or is it the last number on the right?
Also, what are the 4 rules again?
kingfin66
07-12-2005, 09:21 PM
Colonial Downs results.
Race 6 Julies Diamond. $92.00!
There aren't many things in life sweeter than that. Is that the straight out of the box fig, or was there some handicapping involved? Will somebody please tell me honestly that they bet real money on this horse and won.
headhawg
07-12-2005, 11:57 PM
kingfin,
The four rules:
1. No 180+ Layoffs
2. Last fig must be on todays surface
3. Top figure is the play
4. Ties go to the highest odds
Go to the pacefigures.com website. On the top menu on the left is a section called "The Numbers". If you click on it you will find cj's explanation of the figs as well as some examples of how cj uses them.
HH
CJ, or anybody else versed in the figs, please help. When I bring up the performance figs, what number do I look at? Is is the number on the left - the first number in the row - or is it the last number on the right?
Also, what are the 4 rules again?
Kingfin,
If you are looking at the free figs on the site, they are the performance figures only. That number represents mostly Speed & Pace combined with some other adjustments depending on the situation. Ex. Weight, Field Size, Racing Close to the pace and maturity in young horses just to name a few. You read them from left to right, left being the most recent start and so on.
ZAFONIC
kingfin66
07-13-2005, 01:26 AM
Thanks to both Headhawg and Zafonic for the replies.
Colonial Downs results.
Is there a story line here. Actual results so far at Colonial.
Race 1 Fabulous Numbers $8
Race 2. Miss Stacked $7
Race 3 Brian Scratched $3(sic)
Race 4 Unbridled Behaviour $7
Race 5 Mr. Song and Dance $6
Race 6 Julies Diamond. $92.00!
Suff,
I use the figs and Julie's Diamond did not rate high in that race at all on my copy of CJ's program.
Jim
JimG, there is no ratings for a horse that pays that kind of money..Yesterday, a horse at suffolk Downs paid, over $100.00 Pacefigures, rated the horse "8". the lowest in the field. SUff, was making a point. At Colonial Downs that day favorite after favorite wer winning. It seemed that the crowd was in a lull with the favorites. BANG!!!!! a $92.00 winner.
Actually John, there have been a few, but you are right, it is rare indeed. This was a turf race, and the horse had done nothing but sprint on the dirt. The trainer was 3% 1st turf, though Sheppard is known as a turf guy, at least he was back when I was an East Coaster. Anyone picking this horse deserved $92!
Colonial Downs results.
Fabulous Numbers
Miss Stacked
Brian Scratched
Unbridled Behaviour
Mr. Song and Dance
Julies Diamond. $
These Winners have nothing to do with Pacefigures.
I was there live at the track and could not come up with the 4 although he looked good in the paddock. Interesting Shepard won the next race using the same jock and it paid 6-5 odds. Occasionally, $90 horses make some sense to me, but in this case other than blindly playing Shepard on the turf, I could find no reason to play. Had a good day at the track though, and not to sound too much like Karl, the lemonade is really good.:D
Jim
JimG, there is no ratings for a horse that pays that kind of money..Yesterday, a horse at suffolk Downs paid, over $100.00 Pacefigures, rated the horse "8". the lowest in the field. SUff, was making a point. At Colonial Downs that day favorite after favorite wer winning. It seemed that the crowd was in a lull with the favorites. BANG!!!!! a $92.00 winner.
Read the animals names. Read what i wrote
"Are the winners at Colonial Telling a story?
36/24/36, looks good, brian likes, tryst, soft shoe, wedding.
Come on... I know I had to use a little imagination, but certainly thought one or two guys would pick up what I was saying..:(
Bye
keilan
07-13-2005, 09:59 AM
Did Fast & Furious win the next? :D
ACTUALLY CJ, there have been more than a few good pacefigures prices.
What a shame Yesterday, if I only went three deep with pacefigures in the 9th at Suffolk Downs. Would have had the pick-4 $598
Don't forget,I am in the finals at Rockingham this Saturday , Selections to be made from Suffolk Downs Saturday card. To win this contest you have to think....Bombs away!!!!! Join in and help me select.
JustMissed
07-13-2005, 10:19 AM
These Winners have nothing to do with Pacefigures.
couldn't figure out why you posted it in a thread about CJ's fig.
How neat would it have been if subsequent races had been won by Cute Baby & Final Divorce?
JM :lol:
couldn't figure out why you posted it in a thread about CJ's fig.
JM
I know. I asked myself the same question. Something's not right in my brain.
vBulletin v3.0.5, Copyright ©2000-2008, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.