Belmont

[Valuist]

Is it me or has this been the least bettable Belmont meet anyone can remember? Other than the NY bred Maiden races, it seems like its a parade of 5 and 6 horse fields. Hopefully, Saratoga will be better.

[cj]

Yes, I'm usually a big NYRA guy, and I've virtually ignored the place other than Belmont Stakes week. Too many other tracks running that aren't carding Statebred maidens on the turf three times a day.

[andicap]

But NYRA's doing a bang-up job according to some on the board here. From what I'm hearing from the NYRA apologists the product is still great. I mean 5-horse fields just mean you have a better chance to win. Stop grumbling like the malcontents you are. Like McShell, you are obviouisly stooges for Frank Stronach and the Magna Mafia.


:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

Way to keep the quality flowing Andy....thanks!

You guys can criticize NYRA all you want....I just don't see the point. They are criticized left and right in the press day in and day out. We all know they're in trouble....

Just like some people hate Lukas, some people hate NYRA. Big surprise. Tell me something I don't know.

You want to complain about field size? What good is that? Tell me WHY field size is DOWN, and it starts getting interesting.....

So, does anyone know why NYRA has struggled to fill their cards this meet?


PS. CJ, I've been using your figures the past few days, and have done quite well at Belmont...especially Sunday....maybe you should go back and take a look...

[cj]

I still pick a race here and there I like, but I'm doing just fine, thanks, LOL!

[PaceAdvantage]

Did you check out the 2nd race at Monmouth today? With your figs, I had the 2 and 6 as my top two choices....didn't bet the exacta...BOY did that payoff come up light....

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, I must add to my last post that I bet those two horses to win based on a combination of the figs and the value I was getting on the tote.

I believe the 3 horse in that race was the horse I gave top fig of 59 to....

3 - 59
2 - 57
5 - 56
6 - 55+

The odds just dictated win bets on both the 2 and 6....

[cj]

Actually, I didn't get to play a lot of races due to a storm here, lost DSL for a few hours! :(

[The Hawk]

Is it me or has this been the least bettable Belmont meet anyone can remember? Other than the NY bred Maiden races, it seems like its a parade of 5 and 6 horse fields. Hopefully, Saratoga will be better.

This has been the case for some time. It's hard to put a finger on the reason for the drop off in quality over the past few years, but it's probably a variety of reasons, obviously including the lack of slots. Monmouth's quality has also slid in the past five or 10 years. Saratoga racing is only bearable because the meet draws horses from other circuits. Without that, it would just be Belmont North, except hotter and more expensive....and wetter.

Personally, I feel like the "death" of the older mid-level claimers has a lot to do with the decline in both NY and NJ. Remember those full fields of $25K claimers in NY, and $12,500 claimers at Monmouth? Those were always extremely bettable races. Now, when they're run (which is not all that often, replaced by statebred races, for the most part) we may get 7 horses. Those are still great betting races at Saratoga, which, to me, is one of the reasons why it's a more appealing betting product than Belmont.

[aaron]

PA-
I'll take a guess as to why NYRA's fields have been small.
1-The detention barn-Some shipping trainers probably know which horses not to send.
2-The purses are probably just as high at other tracks,so why bother shipping in.
3-NYRA has only one prestigous meet-Saratoga.Its no big deal to ship to Belmont and win a race.
4-Even in Stakes races trainers look to out of town.Most of them don't care if the race is GR 1,if they can find a GR 2 with a higher purse.Once a good horse has earned GR 1 credentials the trainers go for the money.

[keilan]

Did you check out the 2nd race at Monmouth today? With your figs, I had the 2 and 6 as my top two choices....didn't bet the exacta...BOY did that payoff come up light....


Now why doesn't that surprise me. Payoffs are sure to diminish in time.

[PaceAdvantage]

These weren't obvious top figure horses. I projected improvement on one or two of them. I wasn't betting blind figure horses. I actually handicapped the race, using CJs figs as a guide, but not a be all end all selection method.

The winner was 9/2 on the morning line, and went off at 16-1. Doubtful CJs figures had an impact on this race....unless they are ignoring such a huge overlay in the win pool, and only hammering exactas.

Horse paid $32+ to win, the place horse was 9-1 and paid $9+ to place, and the exacta came back $154....unreal....and it was a 9 horse field, so field size doesn't really play that much a part in this case....

[keilan]

Mike it’s my long held belief that it takes about a year to fully understand the strength and weaknesses of any numbers. The confidence in making large wagers also takes time; let’s talk in a year’s time.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not sure I understand your last post in reference to your post before that where you implied the reason for the small exacta payoff was the availability of CJs numbers to the masses.

[keilan]

Sorry -- all I’m implying is if you think those payoffs are short now wait a year. All it takes is a few players to see the same thing and wager a few hundred bucks between them and that x’s comes back ½ the size or less. Of course this always depends on pool size etc

[PaceAdvantage]

Ahhh...i get you now....like i said in an earlier post, I'm extra dumb today....

[andicap]

Mth 2nd race today --
My point isn't to denigrate CJ's figures which we all know are excellent, but to make a point about an interesting race and how the crowd bet it.

It was just one of those races where crowd ignored a very competitive recent figure at a good price but concentrated on class/form.

2-6 came up 1-2 on HTR as well -- I didn't bet, etc., so save the redboarding comments. Based on PL-5,the one the computer picks, they came up 1-2 on AP and tied for the top in the "K" ranking, a decent single factor rating.

My point isn't to prove HTR is equal to CJ's figs (I use both) but to demonstrate that you can still get a price on recent figure horses. I think it's an instructive race.

Why did the crowd ignore the two winners?

The 2 was 0-13 and coming off a weak race. You have to go two races back to get the winning paceline which was on a "Good" racetrack at today's class and only 26 days back.

The 6 was 0-16 and looked like an "E" horse with a chance to get the lead.
He ended up closing for 2nd. Well, closing is relative. He "closed" into a 13.85 final 1/8 and 27.22 final 1/4. I've seen faster final qtrs at the trotters.

The crowd was betting the 3 and the 5. The 3 was second out and dropping from a MSW in NY. Bad form but competitive Cramer speed fig. Off 81 days and had no speed in debut. Bravo rode.

The 5 was also lightly raced, fourth time out and also laid off 80 days. But shipping from GP where raced in MSW and 45K Mcl. Showed one very fast race for today's field -- in his debut 5 months ago, and two terrible races.

Moral: Sometimes if you just bet the horses with the best recent figures you can cash a big ticket because the crowd is thinking class and form. It was apparent the 3 and 5 would improve because they were laid off lightly-raced horses, which normally DO improve. But not today. And not at 9-5. And the chart said he broke badly.

Who knows, tomorrow class and form might win. And if they were 15-1, I'd bet them instead of the recent figure horses.

[keilan]

My curiosity got the best of me so I download the card and capped the race.

Awful race to play for me 10k mdclmger’s, I had 4 contenders

Projected numbers for them are

# 2 – M50’s
#3 – M50’s + -
#5 – M50’s +
#6 – L-M 50’s

With no consideration to odds or how the track was playing I would have keyed the 5 horse. As you can see I have the 4 contenders rated very closely.

Now after looking at the results I would hope that had I played that I would have keyed the 2-6 over the others. I see the 8 ran large at huge odds, from this one race it certainly looks like the track was playing fast. If I had known that the track was playing fast I would have used the 8 horse underneath in all exotics. After all he had a pace advantage and that goes a long way in cheap races on a quick surface.

I all honesty I would have probably watched the race. Congrats to those that had a better opinion of the race then I.

PA -- you are never dumb imo, I often reply to posts when I’m still doing three other things, none related. Hell I confuse myself twice a day :)

[kingfin66]

Did you check out the 2nd race at Monmouth today? With your figs, I had the 2 and 6 as my top two choices....didn't bet the exacta...BOY did that payoff come up light....

Changing the topic a tad bit here PA? But congrats on the score!

[PaceAdvantage]

No score. $2 bets, as I just started using CJs figs....

Sorry for the change of topic, but at least it didn't lead to epithets and flames that other recent change of topics have led to, and have required closing....

Please, get us back on topic...

[kingfin66]

Okay, but I too want to check out the Monmouth race. I love educational races. Of course, it's a little easier to handicap when you already know who won!

[toetoe]

I am NOT saying this because I hit my annual pick-four there today, but I was astonished at the high quality of the Belmont card today, Friday. I'm really kicking myself for missing the 4th. It had a horribly false fave with JVel riding. I played two shots to win, and a first-time-turfer with Chantal S. beat my two, who ran 2-4 with Chantal's entrymate third. Bridgejumper special, aided by the entrymates coming 1-3. No tri, no exactor, no $20-plus show, nothing but a fistful of lint. Later Chantal won two for Jerkens and the pick-four was decent. Anyway, a wonderful card. Too bad Roman Ruler scratched. He'd take some money, I'm sure.

[kingfin66]

Off Topic - PA nice call on the 2. The last race wasn't so great, but going past it you have the second best rating in the race. The 6 looked like a solid key to me. The great thing about the 2 was the odds. When the odds do that - 9/2 ML to 16/1 for the race - I always make sure I know why the horse isn't being bet. In this case it was obvious that the last race back turned the public off. Boy were they ever wrong.

On Topic - I agree with Valuist, Belmont has been a disappointment from a betting standpoint. I don't pay attention to NYRA politics being that I'm way out here in Washington, but I do like playing the NYRA circuit. Belmont isn't the only track with this problem, however, as Hol, CD and others have struggled to card full fields.

[cnollfan]

I agree with Toe Toe. That 4th race Belmont favorite was a dog. Usually when a horse is odds on I might not like it but at least I understand why it's the favorite. This horse didn't look any better than the others. Even worse, somebody jumped off a small bridge on her and I didn't notice it until the show payoffs were posted. I didn't make a dime off the race.

[toetoe]

Chuck Noll Fan,

I was a bad boy, playing Mnr. or Col. the other night, and that's how I came to see the wretchedness of the Pimlico turf route, OUT OF WHICH the Affirmed-Something filly, with JVel, came into the Belmont turf marathon. Y'know, that's really the surest thing, when you hate a favorite for the right reasons. You still have to beat it, but you have a nice head start, presumably.

[The Hawk]

Chuck Noll? I was thinking Cindy Noll!

[cnollfan]

The Hawk is correct.