Just a fact for winning

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

:ThmbUp: FACT: In order to show profit over a large sample of time ( perhaps a year or so), a well disciplined and well informed hard working horseplayer must do something that the vast majority of his or her competitors (the other parimutual participants) are not doing.

There are probably hundreds of different factors and methods used by the few disciplined, businesslike hard working winning players.Marc Cramer has written a few books on this subject to stimulate the thoughts of recreational handicappers who would like to move there hobby into another level. The demanding level of a horseplayer that wants to win money, and is willing to use an 'against the grain' strategy to achieve the success.

Are there any opinions on this topic from the many knowledgeable horseplayers using this forum.I thank you for your time. Zappi

[Light]

Zappi

I would like to point out he the "against the grain strategy" has been discussed so much on this board that I am considering giving up all "originality" just to be a simple grain again.

[Wickel]

I still consider trip handicapping a viable factor that separates the men from the boys. It's not so much considered contrarian by many, but I still think it's an "isolated" method because it entails a lot of hard work. And I'm not talking about trip 'cappers who mark in their programs that a horse went wide or was steadied on the turn or broke slowly, but actually noting how many lengths the trouble cost the horse and then following through and keeping track how it performed the rest of the race. Add to the that the tedous compilation of your work at the end of the day and you have quite a task on your hands. But in the end, it's the hard worker who has all this info that no one else does--a huge edge IMO.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

THE CONTRARIAN theme is something that does not come natural for the average player.However, this attitude can be learned with some real gut wrenching effort and stick-to-it-tive-ness.The natural instinct for beginning players is to attempt to cash as many tickets as is possible.Quickly an alert player realizes that cashing many tickets does not lead to the profit side of the ledger,except in some instances where a controlled operator such as (ken woodall) uses his method based upon real research.

To be contrarian is to be different...to be bold...to be willing to take a risk for a just reward. p.s. i'm still working toward my contrarian goal...and some day i will get there.

[sjk]

I would disagree with your fact. If you can do traditional handicapping consistently, thoroughly, and accurately and play only the overlays it is possible to have good results over the long run.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Yes SJK a traditional handicapping form on a consistent basis looking for and playing only overlays is contrarian in some form. You are coppering the public play, which is the point of contraian horseplaying.



Some players use extreme contrarian methods that Cramer termed it as bizarre.And many others simply avoid the herd and look for edges against the public by looking for value.

IMO you must find some form of doing things different to be successful,and this comes from hard work and willing to take a risk,a risk based upon a highly structured plan (even if it is bizarre).

Myself, i am working at the contrarian mode on an everyday basis,i'll keep trying.best of luck to you sincerely Zappi

[46zilzal]

I would disagree with your fact. If you can do traditional handicapping consistently, thoroughly, and accurately and play only the overlays it is possible to have good results over the long run.
wagering is the contrarian part....

[sjk]

Zappi,

Thanks for the good wishes. Same to you.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"a traditional handicapping form on a consistent basis looking for and playing only overlays"
I thought doing the above at a profitable rate IS something the vast majority are not doing!LOL!
I look for that and also unpredictability to bet my multiple longshots. Recommending betting 15 of 20 in the KY Derby is something the vast majority would not consider but my buddies in town bet it!
I am very willing to go along with the majority (favs) when the percentages work out. I took my mother-in-law's $48.00 last year and agreed to bet across the board for her on Smarty and the show horse. Smarty had not lost yet and the track wwas other than muddy.
Bet with the crowd when the crowd is right if you figure and overlay based on say 10 of the same bets- bet against the crowd when the % favors "chaos"- like against Proud Accolade in the mud at 1/5!

[JustRalph]

Zappi

I would like to point out he the "against the grain strategy" has been discussed so much on this board that I am considering giving up all "originality" just to be a simple grain again.:lol:

[Jeff P]

posted by sjk - I would disagree with your fact. If you can do traditional handicapping consistently, thoroughly, and accurately and play only the overlays it is possible to have good results over the long run.
Suppose you are doing traditional handicapping. That's not so contrarian in and of itself. But if you are doing it consistently, thoroughly, and accurately - then you are doing something that most of your competition isn't doing. Sorry, that's a little contrarian.

And if you play only the overlays, well, I'd have to say that's contrarian too.

I'd say keep up the good work - even if it is a little contrarian. <G>

-jp

.

[twindouble]

If you all don't mind me jumping in here to get started, I've been reading a couple threads including this one.

If I understand the meaning of contrarian it's going agains't the majority. Well, wecome to gambling on the horses. The key is, one doesn't go agains't the majority unless you have good reason too, so now your handicapping not just gambling although they both go hand and hand. A good handicaper isn't going to get into a race with preconceived notions about the trainer, jock, owner or horse for that matter. Unless you have solid information that supports those notions considering the conditions in hand. Overlays have little or nothing to do with handicapping a race, it's just other peoples opinions so you just can't bet overlays and expect to come out ahead in the long run. I agree with Jeff P.

I'll explain more as we go here, this sounds a little vague but it's a start.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I define overlay as a horse(s) with a higher payoff average for that selection over the long run than the price of the bet. When the ticket is cashed it is defined as your ROI. You have to handicap first to arrive at what you conclude is the actual value, and if you conclude that the actual value is over the price of the bet, you have an overlay.
Doesn't really matter what the tote odds are or what others think except as odds to be figured if above the actual value. IMO, a 4/5 fav can be an overlay and Zippy Chippy can be a win underlay at 100-1 and at the same time a show overlay- like when I correctly predicted on this forum that Zippy would show!
The bottom line is the bottom line- positive ROI.

[kenwoodallpromos]

09-06-2003, 04:51 AM #6
hurrikane
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 1,649 nice pick Ken


should have put it up in you big PH position.

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09-06-2003, 04:51 AM #6
hurrikane
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 1,649 nice pick Ken


should have put it up in you big PH position.

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09-09-2003, 07:08 PM #7
kenwoodallpromos
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09-06-2003, 04:51 AM #6
hurrikane
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 1,649 nice pick Ken


should have put it up in you big PH position.

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09-09-2003, 07:08 PM #7
kenwoodallpromos
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 3,385 Zippy to show!

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Zippy placed!

[twindouble]

I define overlay as a horse(s) with a higher payoff average for that selection over the long run than the price of the bet. When the ticket is cashed it is defined as your ROI. You have to handicap first to arrive at what you conclude is the actual value, and if you conclude that the actual value is over the price of the bet, you have an overlay.
Doesn't really matter what the tote odds are or what others think except as odds to be figured if above the actual value. IMO, a 4/5 fav can be an overlay and Zippy Chippy can be a win underlay at 100-1 and at the same time a show overlay- like when I correctly predicted on this forum that Zippy would show!
The bottom line is the bottom line- positive ROI.

I agree, your Zippy Chippy comment cracked me up. I'll be going to the fair this year but Zippy retired.

[Tom]

Oh yeah?

Well, for your information, Zippy Chippy is 100% against harness fillies and 50% against baseball players. He is undefeated at Batavia Downs.

So there! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[hurrikane]

Is Ken a trip or what?

How long you been saving that one. :rolleyes:

[kenwoodallpromos]

It is called keeping good records like is recommended!LOL!

[thelyingthief]

perhaps this extraneous, but being both well disciplined and well informed is already something the vast majority of competitors are not doing.

[JackS]

Personally, I begin my hcp'ing with the thought that the public is probably wrong (they are 2/3rds of the time).
If the public fav appears unbeatable, I may attempt an exacta using the horse ontop with one or more of the obscure longshot possibles to hit in the second slot.
Most races are easy go-against the favorite since the true compitition is evident with adiquate handicapping. The fav may look slightly better even on your own numbers, but at 6/5?, 4/5? or?. Go against these slightly better horses. A bet and win on one of these types is rather meaningless. A bet against and a win can truely make your day.