My track speed system-Evangangeline Downs

[kenwoodallpromos]

To whom it may concern:
ED looks to be running fair but slow.

[PaceAdvantage]

and that means.....what?

Bet against the speed horses?

[sjk]

Are they running races?

[46zilzal]

how there is an ongoing belief that the surface influences the horses on any long term basis. Kind of akin to saying the silks influence the rider.

[BillW]

They just resurfaced the new track to correct problems that showed up after the start of the meet. They will be back running on Wednesday.

Bill

[sjk]

I have really enjoyed the full fields at Lad.

[Zaf]

Ken,

How is EVD running slow if they are not running at all :confused: ???

The surface is new, you have no frame of reference if you are going by work outs only.

ZAFONIC

[kingfin66]

I believe that Ken is going by workouts when he makes the statement. My guess is that he is probably aware the EvD is going to start running again soon and is trying to give a heads up regarding whether the track is favoring speed or not. Is this what your saying Ken? Ken?

[JPinMaryland]

if he is going by workouts, then how can he figure out path biases? And my understanding is lots of times a speed bias can be confused with an inside path bias. So unless you have an idea off path bias, it seems you cant really say how races will be run....

[keilan]

Another brillant thread :rolleyes:

[hracingplyr]

maybe they need Viagra at ED? Just a thought lol

[PaceAdvantage]

Another brillant thread :rolleyes:

To be fair, the quality of threads has been excellent the last day or two...the CJ oddsline thread was particularly interesting (at least to me)....

[kenwoodallpromos]

There are many horses working out now at ED. Don't blame me if your horse that works a 50.0 4f dirt work wins!!
If you do not believe that works mean anything about race speed, you might want to look at works and early race cards to get a comparison to previous workout times or previous pars. Like I said, to whom it may concern.

[cj]

and that means.....what?

Bet against the speed horses?

You didn't answer PA's question Ken? What exactly does your initial post mean? How are handicapper's supposed to apply this knowledge?

[hurrikane]

whoever is interested,

Every study I have done shows that workout times have absolutely no corrolation to types of horses that win. (speed vs closers)

Sorry Ken, but those are the facts.

[Zaf]

Agree with Hurricane.

ZAFONIC

[cj]

The last time I used any workout to help select a horse, the horse was dragging a cart and a fat guy behind him. If they start doing works like qualifiers in harness, I *might* start paying attention!

[cnollfan]

I use workouts extensively in my handicapping. Not so much for the raw time, but more for trainer intent. e.g. 8th race Canterbury Sunday, a dreadful 1-70 maiden race for Minnesota-breds, trainer Jamie Ness worked out Dixie Decor a mile three days before the race. It wasn't pretty but Dixie Decor staggered home in front.


I also like the Joe Colville approach to look at a horse's first workout after a strong race. If it's a good workout, chances are the race didn't take anything out of the horse. If it's slow, a bounce is more likely.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I will be looking at post other than inside, prefer older or high weight, decent odds:
#1=5
#2=6
#5=1 (sprint)
#7=7
#10=6.

Races with bigger fields I would have to look at the toteboard for multiple longshots.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If your studies included sealed and muddy tracks I would be interested in seeing one of your studies correlating morning workout times with PM winning running styles. Perhaps you studied Emerald Downs the day the 6 1/2f recoed was set? Or Proud Accolade's loss at 1/5 odds recently?
If you have any studies of dry "fast" tracks I would be interested in seeing them, too.
The only studies I have seen as to running styles winning are at various distances, and sometimes just recent winning style stats that need to be matched to workout times, mostly west coast.

[BillW]

whoever is interested,

Every study I have done shows that workout times have absolutely no corrolation to types of horses that win. (speed vs closers)

Sorry Ken, but those are the facts.

It's sometime difficult to correlate the workout times with the workouts :rolleyes: .

[hurrikane]

I am not saying workouts are meaning less.

I am saying that the Ken Woodall, check the morning work to see if there iwll be a speed bias that day...doesn't work. That is all

Ken,
There isn't enough info to do a study on sealed tracks.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The workout times I look at are the average/mean/middle/median times, like NYRA, SA, DM displays on their websites as "house workouts".
Emerald Downs track workouts are still about 49.0 and a number of horses within 3 lengths early are winning.
At Evangeline Downs workouts for 6-25, this is the middle 4f dirt horse= BICKE CITY BLUES (KY) 51.60 b 50/102.Today, 6-28, the 6th horse of 11 at 4f dirt worked 51.6. Even If you believe the trainer of each of those 102 horse are intentionally work them faster than they can possibly run and/or along the outside fence at a slow gallop, I contend that 102 horses' times or even 10+ horses' times can be guaged from day to day to obtain a variation in track speed. This is one more way I determine how predictable a race will be. I consider slower than 49.0 and faster than 50.0 to be "normal" speed.
It is possible for track crews to manipulate the track between workouts and races to throw off this angle, but most people who do not believe in this angle believe tracks can be manipulated anyway.
There are only a handful of people on this forum who think much of this idea. That is another reason I like to use mit when applicable. And that is why I addressed this thread only to those interested. :lol: :D

[BillW]

Ken,

All the workouts I've witnessed are run in a rather informal manner, much less so than the races. What I meant by the previous post was that I've never been able to bring myself to believe that the workout process that is used at most tracks is anything but highly error prone. Even at Saratoga you will see many private clockers trying to get "real" times on a choice few horses of interest in the morning.

[Zaf]

The works at EVD are as meaningful as the works at CT,MNR,PEN.

ZAFONIC

[46zilzal]

workouts are simple practice sessions and are not related to contests of pace.

[cj]

I wasn't trying to say workouts can't be used as a handicapping tool, just that I choose not to use them. There are only so many things one can focus on in a race.

As for the track speed thing, I have a question for ken. Do you think all works at the same distance are run on the same portion of the track? I don't just mean inside or outside either. Works start at many different poles around the track. I've just never really seen you clearly explain how you are using your median 4f workout theory to help your handicapping.

So, WHY does the workout pattern at EvD lead to this analysis:

I will be looking at post other than inside, prefer older or high weight, decent odds:
#1=5
#2=6
#5=1 (sprint)
#7=7
#10=6.

Races with bigger fields I would have to look at the toteboard for multiple longshots.

I'm just not connecting the dots here.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The whole point of starting this thread is because it seemed from the workouts the last few days that the Evangeline track is slow- maybe after they put in a new base they put a lot of dirt in the cushion. I thought it was worth noting in case the old pars were much faster- I was not trying to start a thread about my same-day predictions.
If people want to play the first race Wednesday as a speed-favoring one be my guest!
If the races are slow, I always expect horses with the best stamina to do well- low odds and not near the rail.
I do have the PP's so that is just a guess. $10 worth of picks for fun and an example.
Works from various poles- yes I am aware that horses work from different areas of the track. That is why if there are large gaps in the times of one workout distance there could be a noticeable bias and that is something to be alert for. Often it is a rail that is slower or faster than farther out, sometimes a slow stretch or turn(s) that are slower or faster.
That is why it is important to know how to analyize results charts for track biases each day. Often a track bias lasts for the week.
Since the person who was the consultant for the remake at Evangeline was Dennis Moore, the track super at Hollywood Park, I have an idea what to watch for in the stretch.

[46zilzal]

tracks are passive partners at BEST

[hurrikane]

Ken,

I think people just want some sort of validation to your statement. Lacking that or or even valid assuptions, you end up with a thread like this.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I have seen posts on other threads which say hundreds of races studied is not enough validation; I am interested in further research of the workout-race speed thing if I know exactly what validation people are interested in.
My speed variant is not a single stand-alone factor except a very few intances; the large majority of the time it is to be used in conjunction with other speed, pace, and/or bias factors, and other factors like post position and horse's inherent running and pace style, so as with virtually all other single handicapping factors or angles. the individual race circumstances must be considered.
For anyone interested, track workout speed can be considered an indicator of what to watch out for in then races.
Now- who wants to talk about the thread topic, Evangeline's new track?

[kenwoodallpromos]

"If the races are slow, I always expect horses with the best stamina to do well- low odds and not near the rail."
Well, my picks sucked!
But every winning horse had a post that was 4th or further out and 4 of them were 8th or 9th post position. only 3 horses paid over $7.00, most $5.00 or less. The splits showed faster times after the 3rd race, but INHO times were mostly on the slower side. Hopefully someone better at it than me can analyze final times but they seemed kinda slow, 1:11+ for 6f, 1:40+ for most mile marks.
Any comments on E's track today?

[kenwoodallpromos]

"If people want to play the first race Wednesday as a speed-favoring one be my guest!"
Winner of the 1st race (mile 70yds) was 6th- 5 1/2 lengths back at the 1/4 mark; 5th 2 1/2 lengths back at the 1/2 mark. I would not call that early speed, and the splits were slow as I expected.

[hurrikane]

Ken, dude.

it is one day. mostly fav won. no surprises. no bias, no nothing from what I can see, 50% of the races were won by the fav. a little heft for that track. won't hold up.

10 races is nothign to make a betting decision on but I see nothing going on there that would indicate a bias of any type out of the usual.

[socantra]

You're right Ken, the times were slow. I'm also a skeptic of your workout methods, but anything that is so instantly dismissed by the 'experts' on this board indicates a possible fruitful line of inquiry.

socantra...

[socantra]

tracks are passive partners at BEST

Tell that to the jockey/horse who just finished a race in the back of the pack at the Fairgrounds in the slop.

socantra...

[46zilzal]

If one LOOKS hard enough, you can TRY to incoporate the jocks beard growth as a factor!

[hurrikane]

but anything that is so instantly dismissed by the 'experts' on this board indicates a possible fruitful line of inquiry.

socantra...

I dont' know who these experts are but I can tell you that I tracked it for quite some time. No corrolation between works and races.

[JPinMaryland]

I asked this question earlier: are you measuring path bias? You said at the outset that the track appeared to play fair, does that include that paths which I think it would. WIthout measuring path bias I dont know how your system can work..

[kenwoodallpromos]

If there is a marked path bias it can be judged by analyzing results charts. Look for path switches and multiple horses fading on certain paths. Since in the later stages of the race the inner part of a track is mostly used, I usually consider the rail to be faster or slower than the other paths if any path bias exists at all. I did not really notice that yesterday.
My system determines workout variant- slower means a horse can win from further back; and the race is less predictable depending on your knowledge.
At one point during a Tampa Bay meet the 3 path was the single fastest path. Maybe Tom Schell remembers that since his horses ran there.
Hur- we are in full agreement that 1 day does not validate anything. That is why I said my picks were for fun!
"it is one day. mostly fav won. no surprises. no bias, no nothing from what I can see, 50% of the races were won by the fav. a little heft for that track. won't hold up." Since you do not take stock in workout varuiants, and this is the first day, what is your reasoning for saying that wins by 50% favs is hefty for this brand new track?

One jockey said Evangeline is now "softer and firmer". I assume he means the base is firmer and not as slippery but the cushion is deeper.
IMO a good track should favor both speed and stamina equally if it is running fair and even.

[JackS]

I'm not familiar with EVD but I would suspect many cheap races will be run there.
If Simular to Cal Fairs, workouts could indicate a healthy horse since many of these types won't workout because of the "breakdown" possibility.
Possibly less attention should be paid to work-times and more attention to number of furlongs worked since last raced.
Don't rely on this angle by my word, you must see this during your own handicapping and make a judgement as to how important workouts are going to be at Evangiline..

[hurrikane]

Since you do not take stock in workout varuiants, and this is the first day, what is your reasoning for saying that wins by 50% favs is hefty for this brand new track?


ummmm...because favs win 33% of the time.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I consider low-odds horses anything under 3-1, whether favs or not.
Favs win about 33% on average- but I do not pick or bet because a race is average.
The actual % of favs winning certain types of races depends on the type of race. Without regard to track speed, I understand distance, class of race, and amount of recent success (form) of the fav matters also.
I would say recent form will matter a great deal at EVD this meet.
From Wednesday's entries not many low-odds horses were at posts close to the rail.
Hopefully this thread has given people some kind of food for thought that were considering playing EVD.