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cj
05-11-2002, 11:42 AM
#11 Screen Idol at 5-1 or more, haven't seen a ML yet, but I would think he'll be much longer that that.

CJ

GR1@HTR
05-11-2002, 11:56 AM
Me going w/ #1. Routers w/ a PP outside of 8 have a tuff time at LS. Of the 82 starters only 3 have won. Maybe the #11 can overcome it.

cj
05-11-2002, 12:06 PM
They don't run 1 1/8m very often at LS, so I don't think the stats mean too much at that distance. Also, with all the speed signed on, dropping over shouldn't prove too tough.

That said, I'm not saying he's the most likely winner, just a good bet IMO.

CJ

BillW
05-11-2002, 12:46 PM
LS runs an inordinate ammount of 1 mile routes (238 last 2 years) in proportion to even 1 & 70 and 1 1/16 (84 last 2 years).


I show only 2 race (on dirt) in my DB since 1/1/2000 at 1 1/8.

1 1/16 data (dry - dirt all classes) is as follows:



Post Starters Winners IV
Rail 84 15 1.68
1 - 3 252 29 1.08
4 - 6 251 30 1.12
7 - 9 185 18 0.92
10+ 102 7 0.65
Outside 84 6 0.67




The numbers this meet tend to be biased further to the inside though (as GR1 stated).

1 1/8 should be kinder to the outside.

Good luck CJ,

Bill

tigers1901
05-13-2002, 03:49 PM
Outside post #14 won this year's edition.
Wiseman's Ferry figured within 5 lengths on PA's analysis and was an E8.

cj
05-13-2002, 04:03 PM
14-13 exacta even! Next race...

CJ

GR1@HTR
05-13-2002, 04:13 PM
Good call!