Need input on variant adjustments

[Vegas711]

As far as the 1/2 mile time go's using the drf speed variant I have a question about how much to adjust the 1/2 mile time for differences in track speed.

Ex. a 6f paceline is run in 22 45 110 with a speed variant of 30, the norm range is say 16. Using the drf speed variant we say the track is slow by 14.

What would the adjusted 1/2mile time be??

I realize that there is not an absolute correct adjustment I am just checking what others have found to work the best.

[Zaf]

I would divide the 14 by 2 and end up with a 44.30 for the adjusted time.

ZAFONIC

[cj]

Since 4f is 2/3 of 6f, shouldn't you multiply the 14 by 2/3s, and get 9 1/3?

You are heading down a disastrous path though, rarely is the pace variant that correlated to the final variant in my experiences. And, you are starting from a poor base anyway, the DRF variant.

[mcikey01]

I recall a a methdology cited in Dick Mitchell's Common Sense Handicapping that proposed squaring the percentage of trhe race distance that each fraction of the race represented. For example if the 4f portion of a 6f race represents 2/3 of the distance, square that number ( i.e .6667 x .6667) and use the result (in this case, .4449) as the adjustment factor applied to the final time variant.
This tends to prevent overinflating the estimate of the pace variant, when using the pace distance as a proportion of race distance approach.

It's a a compromise, to calculating true pace variants, which is the better approach.

I wouldn't mind seeing if the database folks who contibute to the forum could run a comparitive analysis of actual pace variants versus arithmetic distribution of final variants.