Older runners on Turf?

[so.cal.fan]

Does anyone have a theory as to why older horses (7 years and up) seem to win more on grass than dirt?
I don't have the stats, but it seems in Southern California the older horses win more often on turf routes.
My first guess would be bad feet, but it is just a guess.

[Tom]

Sounds locigal that older horses might be sorer and the grass is easier on them. Just a thought-no facts to back it up, but that never stopped me before~G~
Also, maybe the slower early pace lets them stay in the race longer and then run hard for a shorter distance at the end.

Tom

[RECON]

TOM--- I BELIEVE YOU HAVE A POINT ABOUT THE PACE-- I THINK IT IS A BIG, BIG PART OF WHAT ALLOWS OLDER THAN NORMAL HORSES TO COMPETE AT A HIGH LEVEL ON THE GRASS

[Derek2U]

Yeah the old timers got all there wild days over with ... hehe ...

Settle behind young speed & lunge later

[ceejay]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Does anyone have a theory as to why older horses (7 years and up) seem to win more on grass than dirt?
I don't have the stats, but it seems in Southern California the older horses win more often on turf routes.
My first guess would be bad feet, but it is just a guess.

Does anyone have any stats to back up scf's hypothesis (or disprove it)?

[Show Me the Wire]

Are stats necessary to validate a perception?

Hey I am every where today.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Show Me the Wire
Are stats necessary to validate a perception?



Only if you want to quantify it.

[Derek2U]

cool... the philosophy of capping. heh 2 one who truly knows the
Horse

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Derek2U
cool... the philosophy of capping. heh 2 one who truly knows the
Horse

Not really a philosophy of handicapping, but rather an analytical basis that can be applied to a number of problems.

[Whirlaway]

I don't think it's quite accurate to say that older runners win more on turf than dirt. It would be closer to the mark to say that older runners are able to compete at a higher level for a longer time on turf than dirt.

Very few 7-year-olds win stakes races in dirt routes (a horse like Sir Bear is so rare as to be almost a freak of nature), but it's quite common for 7 and ups to win stakes on the turf.

I think this has less to do with the "kindness" of the racing surface than the fact that turf horses don't have to cope with pace--they can run within their comfort zone early and make one run, which generally won't work in dirt races. It's probably no accident that Sir Bear is a come-from-behind type. I think this theory is backed up by the success of older horses in steeplechase races, which are run at a gallop for most of the race.

-- John Nichols
http://sportofkings.blogspot.com

[so.cal.fan]

I think this has less to do with the "kindness" of the racing surface than the fact that turf horses don't have to cope with pace--they can run within their comfort zone early and make one run, which generally won't work in dirt races. It's probably no accident that Sir Bear is a come-from-behind type. I think this theory is backed up by the success of older horses in steeplechase races, which are run at a gallop for most of the race. >


This makes sense to me. Good point.

[alyingthief]

i did a study a few years ago examining the age of horses running in southern california (i looked at three years of data), and found absolutely no deterioration of win rate for older horses, either on turf or dirt.

i read in one of ray talbot's (talbout?/talbott?) books a comment that indicated older horses ran much more true to form--he indicated a flat bet profit betting them in certain kinds of races--but this was well before the advent of year round racing. i also remember reading of one of king george's horses (17th/18th century) that was a wonderful champion in his time, and this horse never ran competitively prior to his seventh year. in fact, horses then were not advanced until completely physically mature.

if you think about it, it is improbable that, at least in the major plants, a horse is disqualifiable on the basis of his age at all. the soundness of the beast is much more finely monitored in major league racing, and if he's out there, he's probably spotted where he's competitive, and has the approval of the track-vet, to boot.

the problem with, gee, it seems like so and so do better on such and such, is that it usually IS subjective...this one particularly so. remember, the impact value of a phenomenon is no. of horses winning with a trait, divided by the total number of horses having that trait.

as to whether there are more older horses on the turf, period, i can't offer any evidence; but certainly the surface is a good deal more benign to a horse's physical structure than dirt, anyday.

[so.cal.fan]

alyingthief:

"i did a study a few years ago examining the age of horses running in southern california (i looked at three years of data), and found absolutely no deterioration of win rate for older horses, either on turf or dirt. "


Thank you for your input. I appreciate it.

I have always been biased towards 4 year olds in claiming races, and sometimes 5 year olds. It seemed to me they were the better horses to bet, but your study contradicts that theory.
Interesting......you are probably right.

[JustRalph]

I have noticed that the high dollar turf horses just run less often. Some of them seem to be 7-9 years old with less than half the starts of the dirt horses. Less races, longer viability? maybe?

[Observer]

Interesting topic .. and some interesting thoughts. I would tend to agree with JustRalph. Not many tracks can handle turf racing year round, and not many outfits have the capacity to ship their turf horses to warmer climates during the winter, so instead they get a break .. not to mention there just aren't as many turf races as dirt races for the simple fact that a turf course needs more delicate care.

This idea also translates to steeplechase horses, as they also get the winter off, going back to their farms to be turned out.

The slower early pace factor of turf and steeplechase races does seem logical, however, make no mistake .. jumping is stressful on horses joints.

I also think that turf horses and steeplechase horses probably have an edge as there are hardly an opportunities for a 2yo on turf, especially in the early part of the year. Juveniles with a strong turf pedigree are highly unlikely to be unveiled in a 2 furlong maiden event on dirt, and almost equally unlikely to be entered into a more realistic 5 furlong event on dirt. So, these 2yos are getting a later start, and the typical steeplechase horse is one that has a strong turf pedigree for a distance, so chances are they have also gotten a later start to their career.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Observer

The slower early pace factor of turf and steeplechase races does seem logical, however, make no mistake .. jumping is stressful on horses joints.



I was always under the impression that jumping was easier on horses than running....I know a lot of sore horses from FL end up as jumpers. Maybe it is easier on running joints and harder on different ones?

I know I would not run anywhere, nor would I jump over anything.

[Observer]

Originally posted by Tom


I was always under the impression that jumping was easier on horses than running....I know a lot of sore horses from FL end up as jumpers.

Tom,

I was referring to the actual action of the jump itself .. both the takeoff and landing. Sure, the horses are galloping around fairly easy much of the way, and by the time they hit the stretch, they don't have much burst to hit full tilt sprint speed like we see in the flat turf races, however, a horse pushes off, catapulting him and the jockey over the fence with his two hind legs, while on the landing, he's coming down and taking all the weight on his two front legs, at which point, the downward force is pretty severe .. and gets even worse when a horse doesn't take the jump in stride, coming down even heavier on the landing. Oftentimes, a horse will not land squarely with both feet, and sometimes the push on takeoff is uneven as well. Either way, they're throwing around a lot of weight going over those fences, and the joints, the same effected on flats, are taking the load.

As for the sore horses from Finger Lakes .. don't let the disciplines fool you .. they are different. While some horses may show very little racing on the flat, they may have a knack for jumping .. some just know how to do it efficiently, and some just find it fun. I know, that sounds crazy, but believe me .. I've ridden horses who seemingly have split personalities when comparing how they travel on flat in contrast to how they travel when sent over fences .. they would be real dull on flat, but pop them over a few fences and all of a sudden they're pulling and eager with a new found energy source .. it's really pretty funny, though in some cases annoying to downright scary and dangerous!