Don't know any pro horseplayers that did it through buying books/systems

[fishorsechess]

I've been following the horses for over 25 years. In that period of
time I have run across only a handful of people (can count them on
one hand) who I would consider pro horseplayers. Those players that
can consistently beat the game. Three things that seemed to be
consistent with all of them is a) they learned their winning ways from
a successful horseplayer b) they played longshot or exactas c) some
found the answer in the toteboard. Someone mentioned to me that
in a past Cramer-Omststead newsletter that Jay Richards and a
partner learned their winnings ways from a millionaire horseplayer
who used the toteboard.

[kenwoodallpromos]

a) study b) overlay c) value. Sounds good to me what you said!

[ryesteve]

The problem with books and systems is that it's hard to make money doing something that everyone else is doing at the same time. For example, before Beyer and Dr. Z. wrote their books, people were able to win money with good speed figs and tote overlays. But as soon as this stuff appears in print, people get clued in, which kills the value that used to be there.

Books and systems are useful if they provide ideas and insights that you can apply in a creative way, but using them as a strict recipe would probably never work.

[Overlay]

I agree that increased public knowledge reduces the pari-mutuel effectiveness of any single factor, but it's still possible to retain value that will last over time through a properly weighted blending of multiple fundamental factors to develop fair odds for every horse in a race. And written materials can be useful in providing the raw data which makes that possible (in addition to one's own personal research or findings). To me, trying to stay ahead of the public by continually having to uncover new performance wrinkles leads the handicapper into increasingly peripheral areas that ultimately detract from bottom-line success, and still leave the player in the position of having to start searching again when the latest "angle du jour" starts getting overplayed.

[Dick Schmidt]

Nonsense. There are several easily available books out there that can show you the process of winning. As for your A-B-C's, I learned most of what I used from books, I never bet many longshots or exactas and for years I sat in the infield at Santa Anita where you can't even see the toteboard (just the repeater, which shows the odds but not the pools. I never much looked at it either.) That's how I did it, and supported my family at the track for 15 years. There are a great many ways to win.

The real secret to racing is that there is no secret. The way to win is to outwork everyone else, stay focused and bet with great discipline. All else is merely sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Dick

Who fears he hasn't been surly enough lately.

[fishorsechess]

Per, other posts on PA regarding this topic.

[Vegas711]

Nonsense. There are several easily available books out there that can show you the process of winning. As for your A-B-C's, I learned most of what I used from books, I never bet many longshots or exactas and for years I sat in the infield at Santa Anita where you can't even see the toteboard (just the repeater, which shows the odds but not the pools. I never much looked at it either.) That's how I did it, and supported my family at the track for 15 years. There are a great many ways to win.

The real secret to racing is that there is no secret. The way to win is to outwork everyone else, stay focused and bet with great discipline. All else is merely sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Dick

Who fears he hasn't been surly enough lately.

A. Outwork everyone else
B. Stay focused
C. Bet with great discipline

Sorry I couldn't resist. Dick , do you still make a living from the track?

[Dick Schmidt]

Dick, how much do you charge for private handicapping lessons?
Per, other posts on PA regarding this topic.


Not sure what you are saying. I don't do much handicapping anymore, but when I did the usual charge was about $300 for a weekend seminar where I was teaching with one or several other people. Michael Pizzolla and I did week long "masters classes" in Vegas for $500. I've always answered questions when I could, but I've never given, or taken, private lessons. Seems like a great waste of time for the teacher.

I rather suspect that if I did try to teach one on one, the lessons would only last a few days. I'd say something like: "now, keep a model and track profile on these ten tracks and come back in a week." That would be the last I'd see of the student. Everyone wants to win, but no one wants to pay the price.

In the last year and a half, I've been through this from the other side. While trying to master day trading commodities, I spent about $9,500 on lessons, books and online teaching programs (none of it one on one). I found some things that I could make work, so I started doing those things. It is tedious, and requires me to sit and stare at a computer screen for 6 hours a day, but it works and is quite a bit more profitable for me than racing ever was. I never found a "here it is, take it" method that worked right out of the box. Instead it took several hundred hours of hard slogging looking at charts and trying various combinations of ideas to get to a profitable way of going. Before I even started, I did a lot of research on who was respected in the industry and who was a fraud. I made some mistakes, but with some work, they are self correcting.

The point I was trying to make in my own surly fashion was that you can indeed learn a great deal from books and structured learning environments. The search for a guru who has the "secret", the one told to just him by an old horseplayer on his deathbed that makes everything so easy, is a fruitless one. There are no secrets, inside information is almost always wrong, you most likely already have all the tools you need to win if only you'd take the time to learn to use them and do the work required.

Oh well, enough of that. Either you get it or you never will. One truth that took me a long time to "get" is that most horse players are just that: players. They don't really expect to, or really want to win. If they did, they'd find a way.

Dick

The truth is out there, as close as your nearest bookstore.

[Dick Schmidt]

Vegas711,


No, not so much anymore. I've moved on to other things for the nonce. However, I know that I could if I had to. I've quit before and come back. 3 or 4 weeks and I'm right back making money and paying the bills. It's even easier now that rebates are available. How about you?

Dick

Been there, done that. Have the t-shirt.

[Nickle]

Very difficult to make an serious money betting horses.

Programs do help to a degree

Rebates are a must

[Vegas711]

Vegas711,


No, not so much anymore. I've moved on to other things for the nonce. However, I know that I could if I had to. I've quit before and come back. 3 or 4 weeks and I'm right back making money and paying the bills. It's even easier now that rebates are available. How about you?

Dick

Been there, done that. Have the t-shirt.If I had to rely on making money at the track to make my living i would need to be within a mile of a soup line.When you do play what program do you use?

[joeyspicks]

Dont you find it interesting that the guys who make money say it can be done through study, knowledge, discipline, etc. and the next guy makes a statement how difficult it is ??Not only CAN you make money but the difference lies somewhere in those two attitudes. If you really really really believe its "impossible" to make a decent profit.....guess what? You WILL PROVE IT!

Dick I find it amazing that you trade commodities now. Thats what I have done for years. I do not day trade though. Make daily chart notes and enter & exit trades when the technical indicators indicate. Day trading is tough. If anyone could master it I would say it would be you!:ThmbUp:

[andicap]

Vegas711,


No, not so much anymore. I've moved on to other things for the nonce. .

Racing my brain trying to figure out what "nonce" was. Had absolutely NEVER heard the term. Possiblities I conjected:

Nonsense? All the drugs? Short fields? Crooked trainers?
Latin for I needed a change?
Some acroynm I've never seen?
Nonce = Ministry?

Finally I "google" is and found some meat. News and advice for information security managers.....came up on whatsnew.com and then I also found this link.

http://www.intertwingly.net/blog/1585.html

I still can't figure out what in the world you might be doing.

[Red Knave]

Racing my brain trying to figure out what "nonce" was. Had absolutely NEVER heard the term.

Since you write, Andy, I will assume that your post was designed to elicit this response. ;)
I believe Dick is referring more to definition 2.

Main Entry: 1nonce http://www.m-w.com/images/audio.gif (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:popWin%28%27/cgi-bin/audio.pl?nonce001.wav=nonce%27%29)
Pronunciation: 'nän(t)s
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English nanes, alteration (from misdivision of then anes in such phrases as to then anes for the one purpose) of anes one purpose, irregular from an, on one -- more at ONE (http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=one)
1 : the one, particular, or present occasion, purpose, or use <for the nonce>
2 : the time being

[Vegas711]

Dont you find it interesting that the guys who make money say it can be done through study, knowledge, discipline, etc. and the next guy makes a statement how difficult it is ??Not only CAN you make money but the difference lies somewhere in those two attitudes. If you really really really believe its "impossible" to make a decent profit.....guess what? You WILL PROVE IT!

Dick I find it amazing that you trade commodities now. Thats what I have done for years. I do not day trade though. Make daily chart notes and enter & exit trades when the technical indicators indicate. Day trading is tough. If anyone could master it I would say it would be you!:ThmbUp:

I believe that their is indeed people that are very successful at horse racing and make a decent living at it. They work very very hard at it, there are also people like myself who have their own business outside racing who spend very little preparation before they venture to the track and break EVEN. I just love playing the game and maybe I get more enjoyment from it than professional
horseplayers do. I believe however that it is not attitude but Talent that determines who wins. I can brainwash myself for years that i am the greatest
GOLFER in the world ( I suck at it ) but the only way i can beat Tiger Woods
is if he is blindfolded and handcuffed.

[Dick Schmidt]

Vegas,

When I play casually, I use the method I helped develop, TPR. I usually download from HDW and run Synergism, which creates TPR ratings for each pace line on every horse. I use the TPR ratings themselves to pick pacelines and then let the program do its thing. I've only played a couple of days recently, but both were winners. Sometimes I wonder if I don't make this harder than it needs to be.

Regarding your golf analogy, you may never beat Tiger at golf, but you don't have to if you just want to win money, not championships. I just read that had you shot par on the PGA tour, you would have won over a million dollars. Now, shooting par isn't easy for duffers, but it is doable. A million bucks and never break par. I know several guys who are better handicappers than I am, or will ever be, but so what? I can make a living, and that's all I ask.

Dick

[Dick Schmidt]

Andi,


I am inordinately fond of using slightly obsolete words and terms of speech. For the nonce does indeed mean "at this time," and my Microsoft spell checker had no problem with it, so it must be in some sort of common usage. I enjoy playing with language and am always on the lookout for new, uncommon terms to slide into conversations. Ya, I know. I'm weird, but we all have our little quirks. I also raise worms in my backyard.

No one can possibly know all the words in English. It takes a team of scholars 50 years to completely update the Oxford English Dictionary. I used the term "fair to middling" for years before I found out it is a grade of cotton.

Dick

[Dick Schmidt]

Joeyspicks,

Is that Joey Spicks or Joey's Picks? I ask because I have an Italian American friend who glories in the nickname "Da Spick". He says his people came here with WOP chalked on their clothes (with out passport) and are proud of it.

Anyway, always glad to meet another trader. I too started swing trading, holding for up to a month at a time, but have found shorter and shorter trades to be more comfortable. I never hold over night anymore. I've also stopped trading anything but the financials (S+P, Russell, NASDAQ) for the most part. Never intended to do that, but that's where the path I took led.

Anyone who can make a living trading deserves respect. It is far more complex than handicapping, though the skills seem to be transferable for the most part. Shoot me an e-mail sometime and let's talk trading. Always looking for some good ideas to appropriate. Borrow. Steal.

Dick

[ratpack]

Vegas,


Regarding your golf analogy, you may never beat Tiger at golf, but you don't have to if you just want to win money, not championships. I just read that had you shot par on the PGA tour, you would have won over a million dollars. Now, shooting par isn't easy for duffers, but it is doable. A million bucks and never break par. I know several guys who are better handicappers than I am, or will ever be, but so what? I can make a living, and that's all I ask.

Dick

I was just curious out of that million what do you think the expenses would be for a year on the PGA tour.

[cj]

I was just curious out of that million what do you think the expenses would be for a year on the PGA tour.

Probably not much, don't they all have sponsors now?

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, don't they have all their expenses taken care of???

[BillW]

Yes, don't they have all their expenses taken care of???

Forbes had Tiger at, I believe $75 Million last year - don't remember his PGA take but probably well under $10 million.

[Tee]

I would make a decent guess that it would cost around $150,000 to play the PGA Tour full time for a year.

The upper echelon of tour players obviously do not have to worry about week to week expenses.

Drop down the list a bit & u will find players that are earning enough endorsement money to cover expenses.

There are players watching every penny hoping that their skills will earn them the money that it takes to maintain playing priviliges & perhaps some future endorsement deals.

[Tee]

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_22/b3935134.htm

[twindouble]

I believe that their is indeed people that are very successful at horse racing and make a decent living at it. They work very very hard at it, there are also people like myself who have their own business outside racing who spend very little preparation before they venture to the track and break EVEN. I just love playing the game and maybe I get more enjoyment from it than professional
horseplayers do. I believe however that it is not attitude but Talent that determines who wins. I can brainwash myself for years that i am the greatest
GOLFER in the world ( I suck at it ) but the only way i can beat Tiger Woods
is if he is blindfolded and handcuffed.


This subject always gets my goat, in my 44 years of racing I haven't come across any sucessfull "professional" horse player that decided to give up a good thing to teach others all he knows. The majority of players that make some money or break even or down right lose are already addicted to the game. Show me a pro that isn't addicted and I'll eat your hat and your socks to boot, so It's my opinion those that sell their wares are less than truthful about their abilities. Not that they aren't better than the average but most haven't been able to sustain themselves over the long haul. Win lose or draw you can't beat the amount of enjoyment that's involved in this game. Once you lose sight of that it can become an inner battle and the losses will mount up. Working your fanny off isn't necessarly the road to success, not that you don't put the time in, it's the enjoyment of doing it that counts.

There are those out there that want to complicate this game to the point where new and borderline people are so intimidated they fail to understand most of it is common sence.

[Tor Ekman]

Win lose or draw you can't beat the amount of enjoyment that's involved in this game.

As a relatively newbie horseplayer, this has been my guiding principle. So long as I stay "in balance" about my wagering budget, then it is like any other entertainment expenditure. I enjoy watching the ponies run - and if I invest a reasonable sum in doing so, then I have enjoyed myself and I stand a decent chance to even get a few bucks back on my plays. But in the end, I'd hazard a guess that so long as I remain in balance, I will have spent no more on my entertainment hobby than others who are devoted to the cinema, theatre, trendy restaurants or even pub crawling - and I know that I have more fun watching horses run and interacting with other denizens of the track than I ever would at the the latest movie, play or restaurant that other "oh so sophisticated" types just can't seem to live without.

[twindouble]

Hi Tor; I was just about to sign off, not much going on. Your not alone, most new players experience the same thing. We gamblers don't call it a budjet, we call it our Bankroll, it's the most important thing when it comes to gambling, outside of learning the game.

How long have you been playing the horses?

[Tor Ekman]

I always had a casual fan's interest in thoroughbred racing, and I always bet the triple crown races in addition to one or two outings a year at Belmont. But lately I've decided to become more studious about it, which is how I wound up here just a few days ago. I'm in it for the entertainment value only, so I'm not looking to quit my day job. If I can hit an overlay every now and again, then I'm satisfied and the rest I chalk up to my entertainment budget. I look for a few spots during the week and over the weekend I'll sometimes play a full card somewhere just for fun. I find that it gives me alot of amusement and relaxation from a career which pays well enough but from which I get little satisfaction.

[twindouble]

Good for you, I wouldn't advise anyone to give up their day job to play the horses anyway. The risk factor is to high ESP if you have a family, most of us fall somewhere inbetween and that depends on what kind of player you are or want to be. Some people by their very nature shouldn't play the horses or gamble at all. I can spot them a mile away.

The big question has always been, can you get involed, learn the game, keep your life together and end up ahead of the majority. With all that's involved and what it offers that's what makes the game so tantalizing. Not only that, it's easy to be drawn into unrealistic perceptions of the game when it comes to handicapping and gambling.

[hurrikane]

The real secret to racing is that there is no secret. The way to win is to outwork everyone else, stay focused and bet with great discipline. All else is merely sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Dick

Who fears he hasn't been surly enough lately.

Well stated Dick. With maybe more emphasis on discipline.

Now, what's up with the feely touchy stuff. Get back to being surly.