karlskorner
06-22-2005, 07:53 PM
By Paul Daley, Lowell Sun, taken from "The Derby List"
In case you missed it, DRF has introduced 4 new handicapping tools which should aid in picking winners and make your stay at the upcoming Saratoga meeting more profitable and enjoyable. They are:
A. Trainer Form Catagories - This includes how a trainer does when placing horeses in first time maiden claiming races and also with horses in their first start at a mile or longer. This maiden stat is especially interesting, as it will show which owners are looking to quickly recoup their investment and then get right back into allowance company, risking a claim, as opposed to which are trying to dump a horse whose ability or soundness match it pedigree.
B. Jockey-Trainer Combinations - These include the statistics for the last calendar year as well as the last meet at the track up to the current date. This is a very important statistic, as most trainers have a go-to jockey. Also,
if an obsure trainer uses a big-name rider, you'll be able to see if they've teamed up successfully in the past. I love this innovation.
C. Previously-Trained-By statistics - In claiming situations this will now show the record, up to the time of claim, of the previous trainer in the past calandar year. Here there are two sides of the story, the trainer who claimed the horse and the one who lost the horse. For example, if a successful trainer claims a horse from one who can't train an attack dog to bark at a burglar, it could be significant. Conversely, if the horse is claimed from a prominent trainer, especially if the horse is dropping severly down in price, we are left to decide if the horse has problems or if the onditioner is merely winnowing down his numbers.
As an example, trainer Dick Dutrow (currently serving a 60-day suspension as of June 1) has a recent history of improving horses off the claim and a short rest. Some skeptics wonder about the reason, buy many are unaware that Dutrow sends many of his horses to Kentucky to be placed in a hyperbaric chamber for oxygenation of the lung tissues which promote healing in breathing situations. That's the positive side.
If, however, a recent Dutrow claim is precipitously dropped in price a month or two bollowing the claim, the procedure may not have worked. and the new trainer may have inherited a horse who will only take up stall space.
D. Sealed Track Designation - A superscript "s" will appear to the right of the track condition to denote a sealed track. Equibase began collection data on May 1, 2005.
Knowing the characteristics of a sealed, goo, sloppy, and muddy tracks will be very important at the Saratoga meeting, as the flash Adirondack thunderstorms can swoop into town nearly unnoticed and yet leae Saratoga county sun-drenced within an hour.
Sealing a track is the process of pulling a heavy, flat panel over the surface as the rain commences or threatens; similar to what's uses to smooth out freshly poured concrete. This prevents water from penetrating the track, rerouting it across and off the surface.
In rain situations, check to see how your contenders have fared in such conditions in the past, knowing that in sealed, good, or sloppy conditions, front-runners may be able to carry their speed a bit further and also will not be hindered by mud being kicked into their faces and off thier torso. Many horse resent this and will quit.
However, in extended periods of rain, where the track gets muddy, or in drying out situations, you may want to take a walk to the paddock and look for horses with small, saucer-shaed hooves and those who are blockier in the chest and more athletic, rather than long-rangy horses with large hooves better suited to turf. These latter horses tend to slip and slide in the gooey conditons, losing all confidence and quitting. Remember, a horse's most ingrained fer is of falling, where in the wild they would become food for predators.
Also, in such conditions, you may want to look for horses with several breaks in the past performance lines, which would indicate previous ankle or knee problems. A dry, fast track could jar such horses, causing pain and discomfort, whereas a muddy track is less stressful and may even act as a temporary poultice, so to speack. Many of these horses win at long odds.
In case you missed it, DRF has introduced 4 new handicapping tools which should aid in picking winners and make your stay at the upcoming Saratoga meeting more profitable and enjoyable. They are:
A. Trainer Form Catagories - This includes how a trainer does when placing horeses in first time maiden claiming races and also with horses in their first start at a mile or longer. This maiden stat is especially interesting, as it will show which owners are looking to quickly recoup their investment and then get right back into allowance company, risking a claim, as opposed to which are trying to dump a horse whose ability or soundness match it pedigree.
B. Jockey-Trainer Combinations - These include the statistics for the last calendar year as well as the last meet at the track up to the current date. This is a very important statistic, as most trainers have a go-to jockey. Also,
if an obsure trainer uses a big-name rider, you'll be able to see if they've teamed up successfully in the past. I love this innovation.
C. Previously-Trained-By statistics - In claiming situations this will now show the record, up to the time of claim, of the previous trainer in the past calandar year. Here there are two sides of the story, the trainer who claimed the horse and the one who lost the horse. For example, if a successful trainer claims a horse from one who can't train an attack dog to bark at a burglar, it could be significant. Conversely, if the horse is claimed from a prominent trainer, especially if the horse is dropping severly down in price, we are left to decide if the horse has problems or if the onditioner is merely winnowing down his numbers.
As an example, trainer Dick Dutrow (currently serving a 60-day suspension as of June 1) has a recent history of improving horses off the claim and a short rest. Some skeptics wonder about the reason, buy many are unaware that Dutrow sends many of his horses to Kentucky to be placed in a hyperbaric chamber for oxygenation of the lung tissues which promote healing in breathing situations. That's the positive side.
If, however, a recent Dutrow claim is precipitously dropped in price a month or two bollowing the claim, the procedure may not have worked. and the new trainer may have inherited a horse who will only take up stall space.
D. Sealed Track Designation - A superscript "s" will appear to the right of the track condition to denote a sealed track. Equibase began collection data on May 1, 2005.
Knowing the characteristics of a sealed, goo, sloppy, and muddy tracks will be very important at the Saratoga meeting, as the flash Adirondack thunderstorms can swoop into town nearly unnoticed and yet leae Saratoga county sun-drenced within an hour.
Sealing a track is the process of pulling a heavy, flat panel over the surface as the rain commences or threatens; similar to what's uses to smooth out freshly poured concrete. This prevents water from penetrating the track, rerouting it across and off the surface.
In rain situations, check to see how your contenders have fared in such conditions in the past, knowing that in sealed, good, or sloppy conditions, front-runners may be able to carry their speed a bit further and also will not be hindered by mud being kicked into their faces and off thier torso. Many horse resent this and will quit.
However, in extended periods of rain, where the track gets muddy, or in drying out situations, you may want to take a walk to the paddock and look for horses with small, saucer-shaed hooves and those who are blockier in the chest and more athletic, rather than long-rangy horses with large hooves better suited to turf. These latter horses tend to slip and slide in the gooey conditons, losing all confidence and quitting. Remember, a horse's most ingrained fer is of falling, where in the wild they would become food for predators.
Also, in such conditions, you may want to look for horses with several breaks in the past performance lines, which would indicate previous ankle or knee problems. A dry, fast track could jar such horses, causing pain and discomfort, whereas a muddy track is less stressful and may even act as a temporary poultice, so to speack. Many of these horses win at long odds.