Review of Insta Pick Ultimate

[midnight]

Since I more or less said that I would do so, I purchased this software a while back and put it through a test.

The software arrived about three days after I paid for it, reasonable considering that it was being shipped from Arizona to Nevada. It came on a CD with some stapled-together sheets for a user's manual. The manual explained everything that needed to be explained, regarding the installation and operation of the software.

Insta Pick Ultimate (IPU) is designed to use BRIS single-comma files; however, the dozen Procaps files I fed into it also worked, once the filenames were converted from the .pcs extension to the .drf one used by the BRIS files. I don't know if the software will use TSN's 50 cent files. The test was with BRIS files.

One card may be loaded into IPU at one time. It took my computer about three seconds to process a card. There is no user input whatsoever with this software; everything is done automatically. The program generates three selections per race. About one race in three yields an "Ultimate" selection. The Ultimate selections are supposed to win at a higher frequency than the regular ones do. Each racecard will print onto one sheet of paper, or the results can be read on screen. The paper printout is nice looking. The screen readout is a bit coarse but functional.

The test was made from a randomly selected Monday-Sunday week, which happened to be in April, and it consisted of every track that I'd downloaded for the full week, which totaled 57 racecards and 568 races. The only thing that I tested were the "Ultimate" selections. All were played for a flat $2 win bet, regardless of odds.

Here are the results:


Total Races: 568
Ultimate picks: 176 (31% of all races)
Winners: 66
Win pct: 37.5%
ROI : 0.88


The program did better than I thought it would, both in terms of win% and ROI. Obviously, 568 races are not a large sample, but it gave a rough idea of what the program can do.

As a comparison, playing the 176 lowest K-line horses from HTR produced the following:


Total Races: 568
Lowest K-L: 178 (two extra because of ties)
Winners: 76
Win pct: 42.7%
ROI: 0.91


IPU might be of some use to those who are looking for singles in multiple-race exotics, or for those who want confirmation for their low-odds selection. If a player is already downloading the BRIS single comma files (or perhaps the Procaps files) anyway, IPU might be worth the $125 asked for it.

[timtam]

Midnight,

Nice post ! What kind of price flucuations did the program turn out?

Any long place prices ?? Thanks again ......

[formula_2002]

Midnight,

Nice post ! What kind of price flucuations did the program turn out?

Any long place prices ?? Thanks again ......

Midnight, can you sum 1/(odds+1) for all the plays.
That will give you the number of "expected winners" required to break even. Then compare that to the number of actual winners. That ratio should be about .82 .
what do you get? (of course anything better is a compliment to the program).

Thanks
Joe M

[Maxspa]

Midnight,
Thank you for taking the time to review the software and share those findings with us. Being a former HTR member, It was relevant to see the comparison between the software output.
Maxspa

[midnight]

Longest priced horse was 11-1, but it didn't win. The longest priced winner was $14.60.

For those who don't understand statistical terms, "mean" is what you would think of as "average"; here, it's the sum of all odds divided by the total number of entries. "Median" is the midpoint; here, it's the odds you would see if you laid them all end to end from low to high, and found the one in the middle.

Mean odds of all horses was: 1.47
Mean odds of winners was: 1.34-1 (high 6/5)
Median odds of all horses was: 1.30
Median odds of all winners was: 1.20

I don't have similar breakdown for HTR because I use a database for that and do a report that doesn't break it down. I looked at the query results. HTR's mean winning odds was 1.14, and the median appears (from visual inspection) to be 1.00 or 1.10. The main difference I notice by visual inspection of the samples is that IPU picked several horses in the 3-2 to 2-1 range that HTR did not: most of these didn't win (weak favorites?). HTR's horses were, by and large, much shorter in price (possibly due somewhat to the popularity of the program), but they also ran truer to their odds. One would suspect that if HTR had a more limited following, that the mean odds would go up considerably, possibly to the point of break-even or profitability. This hasn't been the case in practice, however, as database runs on the K-Line factor from previous years (when the number wasn't available, but which can be obtained by re-running those data files through the new program) only show a slight increase in ROI, about 2%, with the same win percentage.

Again, I was surprised at how well Mr. Console's program did (I wasn't at all surprised at how well HTR did). For example, playing the lowest 180 toteboard horses in odds (this number due to ties), which can be found by doing a progressive query on the HTR database by odds increments until the sample size is achieved, would have produced, over the same race sample:

Plays: 180
Wins: 74
Pct: 41.1%
ROI: 0.84

So Mr. Console's program improved on the ROI while sacrificing a bit to the win percentage, while HTR actually improved on both.

Again, a serious player who is into the multi-race exotics (Pk-6, 4, 3, place pick all, etc.) might find IPU to be of some value in confirming or verifying singles found by other means. I tend to doubt that it would hold up too well as a standalone program for the purpose of playing its selections to win.

[Hosshead]

Midnight, Thanks for the report. I had been to the IPU website, and was curious about what kind of results to expect.
No more wondering if it's a "Wonder System" or Not !

[TomC]

Midnight:
Thanks for the review. Just one question. A user just wrote me and told me InstPick can use ProCaps. He said he read it on here, so I decided to see what was said. I dont know what the ProCaps file is, but InstPick Ultimate does use the BRIS Prime Power rating as part of the qualifcation rules on the "Ultimate" selections. The horse must fit within a certain guideline on BRIS Prime Power. However, I doubt ProCaps has that in their file, so InstaPick will "see" all horses tied for the same rating (0). So I feel you are losing a bit by not using the proper file. Maybe not, but thats not how I designed it. This e-mail is not a complaint about your review, just a warning to users, that not using the proper file can cause problems. I know I tried a different file long ago in one of my other software programs. I just renamed it. It ran fine, but when I compared the numbers, they were off.
If ProCaps does have a Prime Power rating, then ignore this post.
TomC

[cj]

ProCaps files do have a Prime Power rating.

[ryesteve]

ProCaps files do have a Prime Power rating.
But unless I'm mistaken, it's not the same as the BRIS number, and could be scaled differently, which might make it incompatible with the manner in which this program is trying to use it.

[timtam]

So what files does Insta Pick use?

[midnight]

From what I see, Procaps uses the exact same power rating that the BRIS file does. It does use different speed ratings. The TSN 50 cent files do not have the BRIS power rating.

I used the BRIS single-comma files for my test, as I use those anyway for my own homegrown program, and since those are the ones that the user manual specified to use.

[BillW]

But unless I'm mistaken, it's not the same as the BRIS number, and could be scaled differently, which might make it incompatible with the manner in which this program is trying to use it.

My SWAG is that the TSN power rating is produced using the same formula as the Bris number but is calculated using the TSN pace/speed figs - which probably also skews the TSN Class figs. It's not good to intermix these data but when used in isolation, they seem to produce about the same results.

The TSN pace/speed figs are as described by Quirin, I believe. Bris figs are derived using some super secret proprietary algorithm.

Whether one or the other compromise the intent of the program being discussed, I have no clue. Probably the developer would be willing to discuss that possibility.

Bill

[Vinnie]

Hello Midnight:

I hope that you are doing well? I have been interested in the Insta Pick software for some time now much for the same reason(s) that you had mentioned in the nice review that you put on the PA board. I wanted to write to find out if you still know of an active URL or Link to their site that you can purchase the software, or, do I just need to contact RPM?

Thanks a bunch Midnight. :)

[Speed Figure]

http://quickplayhorseracingsoftware.com/ try this!!

[Vinnie]

Hello Speed:

Thank you very much for the link. It worked as smooth as butter...

Have a Good one and crush some big races this weekend. :)

[InFront]

Bris data files and TSN Procap files have the same data structure as each and almost the same types of factors and ratings. Main difference is Bris uses a different "scale" for all the ratings such as Power, Pace, Class, etc. So a certain rating for a horse will be different from one data file vs the other. This is why you can never mix the two together in one database cause that can skew results. But as far as which companies files are better or should I say more accurate after running all kinds on each seperately on two different databases and comparing stats on all of the available ratings the final results were almost identical.

As far as this Insta Pick software I would estimate that longterm stats would be about .86 on the top horse. This is what I have also found testing HTR's top K horse. To get in the range of .84 - .87 by playing a single horse in every race is very simple to do and you don't need any special software or proprierity factor to do it. By simply playing Top Class, Speed, Power, E2, etc. horse will do the same roi-wise. Now to get in the .93 range or higher LONGTERM by playing a horse in a every race using some propriertory rating or formula is a different story. Anything below .88 doesn't really excite me and don't have much use or interest in.

[Tom Barrister]

Hello Midnight:

I hope that you are doing well?

The man who used midnight in this forum passed away a few years ago.