? for cj

[cash2]

may 7 was a dull strip at DEL but it seems to me that both beyer and tgraph are over compensating. i'm seeing a lot of horses run big tops that day and i feel that beyer may be off by 8 points or so. i don't really think that egghead ran -what was it- a 114?

any thoughts on this? and TIA!

[sjk]

For what it's worth I have Egghead running a 108.

[cj]

I gave Egg Head a 110, meaning I think Beyer is about 2 lengths too fast. Same for the filly Contrast. Egg Head also was in a pretty slow paced race, 100 pace. I still have the Belmont card posted:

http://www.pacefigures.com/bel050611.htm

[DrugSalvastore]

may 7 was a dull strip at DEL but it seems to me that both beyer and tgraph are over compensating. i'm seeing a lot of horses run big tops that day and i feel that beyer may be off by 8 points or so. i don't really think that egghead ran -what was it- a 114?

any thoughts on this? and TIA!

Those Beyer figures for that day are dead on--and AS CUT AND DRY as any you will ever see. It was an ABSOLUTE FIGURE MAKER'S DREAM card, as ALL 10 races on the ten race card were run at the distance of six furlongs. The circumstances of the track on that day was what was unique though.

You mentioned that the track was tiring--the final times that day were very slow--and the fields stretched out--you had 8 of the 10 races on the card won by margins of four lengths or more. Since 4/5ths of the races were blowouts, you are going to have a lot of winners run new tops.

OBVIOUSLY, the horses who won in blowout fashion thrived over the tiring surface--and may not be able to reproduce the form they showed that day in subsequent starts--and the horses who struggled with the track and checked in 4th or 5th beaten 20+ lengths may run back to some of their better old-form in subsequent starts. In this case, the raw figures for that day are spot on, but a raw figure is only a raw figure--what really matters is how that figure is earned.

Circumstances dictate outcomes. That's Handicapping 101 kind of stuff.

[DrugSalvastore]

I gave Egg Head a 110, meaning I think Beyer is about 2 lengths too fast.

This might look like nitpicking---and I know I can come across as being a bit condescending and arrogant on a message board.., probably because my utter lack of a formal education prevents me from sounding both humble and intelligent at the same time--it's a talent I just don't have I guess.

Anyway, If CJ gave Egg Head a 110 Beyer style final time figure, than he gave him a figure two points slower than the Beyer--which means his figure is one length slower than Beyer's--because two points at six furlongs equals one length.

I know the original poster quoted Egg Head's beyer as a 114--but it was in fact a 112.

[cj]

Yes, I was going with what the poster said, I know that 2 points is one length at 6f (a little less actually.)

My overall rating for Egg Head was about 107 when the pace is considered, which is just about what he earned again (I don't remember the exact figure) in the Riva Ridge. So, despite totally different circumstances, slow pace/slow track then fast pace/fast track, he performed about the same. He also earned a 108 the race before that at Philly.