Giacomo Out for Rest of 2005

[Overlay]

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/3697798

[the little guy]

What a loss.

How are those NW2Xs gonna fill in California now?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Despite of TLG's sarcasm, I am beginning to think maybe Tbreds are getting worse physically; either that or there are other influences that are causing physical problems.
I am talking specifically about leg/ankle/foot problems. I still think tracks are causing some problems; If G was a claimer this problem may not have been found until he broke down in a race like Is It True Mex did. I would like to see year by year and track by track stats on injuries.

[PaceAdvantage]

You know, it's real funny how when Lukas has a horse go bad on him, or has one break down on him, all we hear about is the inherent EVIL that is D. Wayne Lukas, and how he is about on par with the slaughter houses that Congress has the opportunity to do away with at the moment....

BUT, when someone like Frankel breaks them down (Ghostzapper), or one of the "good guys" John Shirreffs breaks them down (Giacomo), we are supposed to get out our crying towels and proclaim the "FRAGILITY OF THE BREED" excuse....

Give me a break boys and girls. Hypocrisy doesn't GET any better than this....

Pardon me while I vomit....

[Elysium Stables]

I think alot of this has to do with the breeding of todays tbreds. Everyone breds for speed and no one for stamina. They called Afleet Alex a throwback cause of his toughness but it has a lot to do with his breeding there isn't a great deal of speed in there. Also his "rigorous" training schedule which has aloud him to reach a level of fitness and toughness that most haven't seen in awhile, while I don't think this training regimine would work for all horses it certainly has been beneficial to a horse lilke Alex. But I believe it is more to do with the breeding than todays tbreds being "coddled."

[kenwoodallpromos]

The only one I may have ever mentioned is Baffert, who admits he runs them hard and either they make it or they don't.
I have seen several reports of injuries and breakdowns but only general ones.
Various studies have made various conclusions but I hear and know of examples of more leg problems on CA tracks, bad tracks like Evangeline this year, and sealed tracks like CD 2003 and GGF winter 2003-4.
KY is tightening up drug regs so we'll see if thaty makes a difference.

[RXB]

You know, it's real funny how when Lukas has a horse go bad on him, or has one break down on him, all we hear about is the inherent EVIL that is D. Wayne Lukas, and how he is about on par with the slaughter houses that Congress has the opportunity to do away with at the moment....

BUT, when someone like Frankel breaks them down (Ghostzapper), or one of the "good guys" John Shirreffs breaks them down (Giacomo), we are supposed to get out our crying towels and proclaim the "FRAGILITY OF THE BREED" excuse....

Give me a break boys and girls. Hypocrisy doesn't GET any better than this....

Pardon me while I vomit....

Fragility of the breed isn't an excuse, it's a fact.

Shirreffs generally doesn't get many starts out of his horses; I'm not sure whose "good guy" list he's on.

I have some questions regarding Frankel's overwhelming successes in recent years, but the man is a truly fine horseman regardless and very rarely do you see his horses break down on the track.

DWL rubs people the wrong way. His breakdown rate is exaggerated but it's the impression that he leaves, that he has no feeling or regard for his horses beyond what they can do for him, that pisses off a lot of people.

I don't feel too sorry for him. He's the most famous trainer in North America, so he gets some undeserved crap on occasion, but that goes with the territory. He's got plenty of sycophants, too.

[PaceAdvantage]

Fragility of the breed isn't an excuse, it's a fact.

It can easily be both as well. That does not negate my point.

[rastajenk]

He won't be back, and he'll be as forgettable as Grindstone.

[cnollfan]

Giacomo may be no more talented than Grindstone, but his Derby win irritated so many high-profile handicappers who were blinded by Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial Beyer speed rating that he will not soon be forgotten.

[PaceAdvantage]

People are blinded every single year by something...that's why the Derby isn't been won by the favorite all too often....

Remeber Arazi?

This year wasn't all that out of the ordinary....when the favorite wins, that's the shocker....

As for Beyer, for whatever reason, there are some folks out there that love to jump on him whenever they get the chance...

Handicappers are an odd lot. They will sit there and criticize public handicappers who don't ever seem to go out on a limb, or don't write about the "tough issues," or constantly kiss the asses of the "powers that be" in racing......

BUT, when a guy like Beyer writes about the tough stories, and forms solid pre-race opinions about races, he gets LOUDLY criticized by a minority of folks who like to hear themselves talk....why....I don't really know. I suppose I need a better understanding of human psychology to figure this stuff out.

I think Beyer has been nothing but good for the game. He's a good writer who isn't afraid to tackle tough issues, he calls them as he sees them, and he isn't afraid to take a firm stand, either in print, or AT THE WINDOWS.

As a handicapper myself, what's not to like about the guy?

Why do people take what he says so personally? MOVE ON to the next race already!!!

[classhandicapper]

I think there is a difference between working a horse often (as in multiple gallops per day) and working him in a way that could cause physical problems (as in bullet workouts every few days).

I think a few of the high profile trainers these days have a habit of working their horses very often and very fast between starts. That has a tendency to get a horse really sharp and ready for a peak very quickly, but I think they tend to break down more often and go off form more quickly.

I think if more horses were handled like AA, we would find that they are actually a little tougher than the recent trend indicates. I don't think there's anything wrong with a lot of gallops, fewer and slower workouts, and more racing.

[Wiley]

People are blinded every single year by something...that's why the Derby isn't been won by the favorite all too often....

Remeber Arazi?

This year wasn't all that out of the ordinary....when the favorite wins, that's the shocker....

As for Beyer, for whatever reason, there are some folks out there that love to jump on him whenever they get the chance...

Handicappers are an odd lot. They will sit there and criticize public handicappers who don't ever seem to go out on a limb, or don't write about the "tough issues," or constantly kiss the asses of the "powers that be" in racing......

BUT, when a guy like Beyer writes about the tough stories, and forms solid pre-race opinions about races, he gets LOUDLY criticized by a minority of folks who like to hear themselves talk....why....I don't really know. I suppose I need a better understanding of human psychology to figure this stuff out.

I think Beyer has been nothing but good for the game. He's a good writer who isn't afraid to tackle tough issues, he calls them as he sees them, and he isn't afraid to take a firm stand, either in print, or AT THE WINDOWS.

As a handicapper myself, what's not to like about the guy?

Why do people take what he says so personally? MOVE ON to the next race already!!!

PA,
A little off topic but handicappers by their very nature are opinionated and their opinions are validated or negated after every race played. Rallying against the favorite in a race is no different than arguing about Beyer's take on a race prior to or after it's run - some people go overboard and some people move on. I for one like Beyer and he really brought me into the game with his well written books but I most definitely don't always agree with his handicapping of a race, in fact I rarely do agree.
Arazi was a one race wonder and Bellamy Road and Giacomo might end up in the same category though I think BR has the potential to redeem himself if he comes back in a slower paced race. Favorites in large field races win less often, so it goes in the Derby.

[cnollfan]

I have been a Beyer fan for ages, but I thought he crossed the line into the sore loser camp when he insinuated that Giacomo won the Derby because the prep race winners had been drugged in those performances.

[cj]

I have been a Beyer fan for ages, but I thought he crossed the line into the sore loser camp when he insinuated that Giacomo won the Derby because the prep race winners had been drugged in those performances.

He absolutely did not insinuate this at all! Like most people, Beyer thought the insane pace is what led to Giacomo winning. Yes, he did mention that new, stricter drug testing was in place at CD during Derby week for Graded Stakes. Lots of "supertrainers" had horses bomb. To not mention this would have been bad reporting.

[46zilzal]

You know, it's real funny how when Lukas has a horse go bad on him, or has one break down on him, all we hear about is the inherent EVIL that is D. Wayne Lukas, and how he is about on par with the slaughter houses that Congress has the opportunity to do away with at the moment....

BUT, when someone like Frankel breaks them down (Ghostzapper), or one of the "good guys" John Shirreffs breaks them down (Giacomo), we are supposed to get out our crying towels and proclaim the "FRAGILITY OF THE BREED" excuse....

Give me a break boys and girls. Hypocrisy doesn't GET any better than this....


Single examples happen to any trainer..when it comes to D Wayne it is almost EXPECTED.

[Bobby]

yea, I liked that D. Ranged post by Drug. :D :D

he can definitely make ya wonder sometimes. Going Wild, Azeri, and so many others.

Also, I Didnt think that wuz flaming. He's probably with the majority of people.

[46zilzal]

yea, I liked that D. Ranged post by Drug.

Also, I Didnt think that wuz flaming. He's probably with the majority of people.
it just ran COUNTER to the moderator's point of view

[PaceAdvantage]

If it wasn't flaming, then what was it?

What it was, was a completely unoriginal post, and an utter waste of space to bring it up for the 1000th time. This isn't OFF TOPIC, where stuff like that (rehash the same thing over and over) is almost a requirement.

When you keep rehashing the same shit over and over again, looking to rile folks up, then it's a flame, plain and simple. Everyone knows where everyone else stands on the D. Wayne issue by now.

However, I am glad nobody has really addressed my point about GZ and Giacomo.

You Lukas bashers / haters let the breakdowns of Ghostzapper and Giacomo go off without barely a peep -- both these trainers BABIED their horses (compared to a typical Lukas runner), and they BOTH broke down.

Where's the logic?

[KingChas]

He's probably with the majority of people.

I was just wondering is this a private or public club? :confused:

[KingChas]

PA, I not trying to get in a so called pissing match with you-but no one has been mentioning DWL.Take a look at your recent replies.You consistantly mention DWL.You were Baiting and Drug took the bait.Now you are upset????
Same thing with other posters bashing Giacomo.As Derby Trial said for the rest of our life Giacomo winner of the 2005 Kentucky Derby will be on the Julep Glass.It's that simple.Can't change that.

[cnollfan]

CJ,
Here is the paragraph from Beyer's post-Derby DRF article that I was referring to:

Some racing fans will view this outcome with suspicion. As concerns about illegal drug use have mounted within the industry, Churchill Downs put into place much tighter security at its barns and more extensive post-race testing procedures. In this changed environment, horses who had run explosive prep races didn't duplicate them; trainers who achieved miraculous records elsewhere performed no miracles on Derby Day. Perhaps this is too cynical an interpretation of Saturday's events, but in any case this was a dismal Derby - except for the prescient bettors who had their money on an impossible-looking 50-1 shot.

[cj]

And everything he said is true. He still didn't say that was THE reason Giacomo won, but it certainly could have played a part.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA, I not trying to get in a so called pissing match with you-but no one has been mentioning DWL.Take a look at your recent replies.You consistantly mention DWL.You were Baiting and Drug took the bait.Now you are upset????

Nobody's been mentioning DWL? All I've been reading on here (prior to Ghostzapper and Giacomo breaking down) during the TC trail is how f'd up DWL has been with Going Wild. To me, it's pretty much a non issue, because Going Wild was never a serious contender on the TC trail (there are ALWAYS lots of non contenders on the TC trail, but for some reason, people only obsess when DWL puts a horse into a race who is most likely going to be an also-ran).

I was simply pointing out that even when horses are coddled like Ghostzapper, or run judiciously like Giacomo, they still break down. Compare that with everyone's favorite whipping boy, DWL, and give me the logic.....

That's all I was doing...making an interesting point....people don't seem to want to address the underlying issue, but hey, that's fine by me....

Keep posting away how awful DWL is, but ignore the fact that two trainers who "did right by their horses" had them BOTH break down on them....

[cj]

When is the last time a spotlight horse broke down on DWL? Charasmatic?

[rastajenk]

Why is it that the trend toward fragility in "the breed" is always demonstrated by high-end, notable examples? Shouldn't breakdowns of mid-level claimers at minor league tracks be on the rise if "the breed" can't take it any more? Maybe that's happening, but I suspect it's not. The notion that horses have become too fast for their brittle structure seems physiologically, well, illogical.

[KingChas]

When is the last time a spotlight horse broke down on DWL? Charasmatic?

I do believe DWL is a different trainer these days.He gained the reputation years ago after a string of misfortunes.I myself had some unkind words for him at times.After thinking about it I was wrong.When DWL had the problems he had a hell of a lot more horses in training than most others which meant he would have more problems.Frankel now has a lot more horses also.The TC races have proved to be more of a survivalist series than anything else lately.DWL is a Hall of Fame trainer.One of the greatest ever.His proteges horses don't seem to have a lot of problems so I don't believe his training techniques are overbearing.Like I said he just had a streak of bad luck years ago.Hence he's branded.

[cj]

My thoughts exactly King. I used to rip him as much as the next guy, but it was probably unfair. He probably made a dumb decision or two, like Union Bay ( I think that is the one), but given his overall record, it is tough to argue.

As far as Going Wild, I don't mind him running the horse in the TC. He's pulled bigger shockers in the past. Horses pay $80 to win every day somewhere, did those horses belong in the race? If the horse is sound, let him run. I don't believe much in horses being raced too much. Look at some of those PPs at Mountaineer!

[Lasix1]

PA and I had this discussion a few weeks ago, and until someone comes up with a way of measuring breakdowns-per-start for given trainers, all of this is groundless speculation. PA thought that a database that included comment lines such as "vanned off, broke-down," etc. might give a reasonable estimate.

Trouble is that horse players don't pay much attention to this issue and neither does the public unless they get their cage rattled by a high-profile media story. Sports Illustrated had a gruesome story entitled "Pushed to the Limits" (complete with pictures) a few years ago and claimed there was one fatal break-down every 100 races. That means that on a given Saturday of simulcasts there will be on average a fatal break-down at one of the 10+ tracks running.

I don't know where they got that figure but until someone starts keeping accurate data on trainers, all the rest is prattle including whether DWL is the King, whether Frankel is catching him, whether claimers break-down more than Stakes horses, whether the TC series is too grueling, and the like.

[OTM Al]

I follow east coast tracks plus the Keeneland meet. Ran a query for 2004 in which the comment line included broke down or vanned off. Here's what I get

Track Breakdowns RunnersBreakdown/Runner Races Breakdown/Race
Aqu 26 9065 0.29% 1122 2.3%
Atl 0 199 0.00% 19 0.0%
Bel 30 6955 0.43% 861 3.5%
Cnl 3 2874 0.10% 332 0.9%
Crc 34 14801 0.23% 1877 1.8%
Del 17 8891 0.19% 1202 1.4%
FL 38 11963 0.32% 1416 2.7%
GP 17 7858 0.22% 899 1.9%
Kee 9 2577 0.35% 297 3.0%
Lrl 10 4210 0.24% 558 1.8%
Med 5 2371 0.21% 311 1.6%
Mth 21 6739 0.31% 845 2.5%
Nmp 1 520 0.19% 71 1.4%
Pha 38 14872 0.26% 1895 2.0%
Pim 22 9013 0.24% 1179 1.9%
Sar 11 2868 0.38% 334 3.3%
Suf 16 8836 0.18% 1109 1.4%
Tam 5 7274 0.07% 733 0.7%
Tim 4 532 0.75% 75 5.3%

I think I am missing January for Pha and Tam, but the rest should be the complete year. Sorry about the alignment

[OTM Al]

And the trainers with the most breakdowns in 2004 on the same tracks

Trainer Breakdown Runners Breakdown/Runner
Scott A. Lake 11 1570 0.70%
D. Wayne Lukas 5 330 1.52%
Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. 5 602 0.83%
Chris J. Englehart 4 590 0.68%
Mark Shuman 4 721 0.55%
Edward Plesa, Jr. 3 395 0.76%
H. James Bond 3 189 1.59%
Hamilton A. Smith 3 445 0.67%
Jennifer Pedersen 3 397 0.76%
John Charles Zimmerman 3 294 1.02%

[Lasix1]

This is a good and much appreciated start, OTM AL.

The raw number of break-downs is small, but are chillingly similar as a whole to the S.I. figure of 1%. DWL isn't the King in this small sample, but he does come in second. Since he's based on the West coast it sure would be interesting to have figures for trainers on that circuit.

Might your database have those figures, too?

Many thanks to you for running them.

[Observer]

Do those statistics only cover horses that actually broke down and did not finish their race? There are plenty of runners that just seem to disappear .. maybe finishing a race with an injury ... or getting hurt in a morning workout .. etc. Those statistics don't cover those cases, too .. do they???

[BillW]

I follow east coast tracks plus the Keeneland meet. Ran a query for 2004 in which the comment line included broke down or vanned off.

Observer,

Only those that are noted in chart comments. Probably impossible to get accurate data.

Bill

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think the 1% statistic is too far off, and your stats tend to back this up.

I would bet that with a larger sample size, all these trainers would gravitate to around the same number.

It certainly doesn't bolster my case that DWL is second on this list. I can only take some sollace in the fact that DWL's total number of runners is third lowest on that list, which will likely skew his stats.

Also, I assume you made sure that whatever horses came up on your query never started again, correct? There could be a trainer change involved in this case, and the current trainer may not be the one who was doing the training when the breakdown occurred....

Thanks for posting this info!

[PaceAdvantage]

BillW, what's the secret to getting stuff lined up correctly on here when using the CODE function?

[RXB]

Forget the Lukas stuff; what I'd like to know is why all of the NY tracks are above the average (which is .25% of runners) in the broke down/vanned off category. Is it just a reporting/wording thing, or are they actually going wrong more often?

[BillW]

BillW, what's the secret to getting stuff lined up correctly on here when using the CODE function?

As passed on to me by GameTheory - no spaces and only tabs.


Trainer Breakdown Runners Breakdown/Runner
Scott A. Lake 11 1570 0.70%
D. Wayne Lukas 5 330 1.52%
Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. 5 602 0.83%
Chris J. Englehart 4 590 0.68%
Mark Shuman 4 721 0.55%
Edward Plesa, Jr. 3 395 0.76%
H. James Bond 3 189 1.59%
Hamilton A. Smith 3 445 0.67%
Jennifer Pedersen 3 397 0.76%
John Charles Zimmerman 3 294 1.02%




Track Breakdowns Runners Breakdown/Runner Races Breakdown/Race
Aqu 26 9065 0.29% 1122 2.3%
Atl 0 199 0.00% 19 0.0%
Bel 30 6955 0.43% 861 3.5%
Cnl 3 2874 0.10% 332 0.9%
Crc 34 14801 0.23% 1877 1.8%
Del 17 8891 0.19% 1202 1.4%
FL 38 11963 0.32% 1416 2.7%
GP 17 7858 0.22% 899 1.9%
Kee 9 2577 0.35% 297 3.0%
Lrl 10 4210 0.24% 558 1.8%
Med 5 2371 0.21% 311 1.6%
Mth 21 6739 0.31% 845 2.5%
Nmp 1 520 0.19% 71 1.4%
Pha 38 14872 0.26% 1895 2.0%
Pim 22 9013 0.24% 1179 1.9%
Sar 11 2868 0.38% 334 3.3%
Suf 16 8836 0.18% 1109 1.4%
Tam 5 7274 0.07% 733 0.7%
Tim 4 532 0.75% 75 5.3%


It's still a royal PIA (for Me). This is pretty close. Must be a font problem on my side (Probably an IE specific thing :rolleyes: )

Bill

[BillW]

Forget the Lukas stuff; what I'd like to know is why all of the NY tracks are above the average (which is .25% of runners) in the broke down/vanned off category. Is it just a reporting/wording thing, or are they actually going wrong more often?

This brings up another issue. Each chart caller has a favorite subset of the (what I assume is) an official set of phrases used by Equibase in the chart comments. I would guess with enough study, one may be able to identify each chart caller by name simply by analyzing the phrase usage in each chart.

What the hell does this mean? Well it is possible that there are chart callers that do not even use the "Vanned off" or "Broke Down" phrases in their comments. Others possibly use those phrases to varying degrees.

Bill

[OTM Al]

If you notice, the higher level tracks in this set have the highest percentages of horses being listed as breaking down and/or being vanned off. Actual listed breakdowns counted for somewhere around 1/3 of the total numbers reported (as opposed to only listed as vanned off). My guess would be that the horses on the NYRA circuit and at Keeneland tend to be more valuable horses than at the other tracks listed, so the horse ambulance is used much more liberally. I will do a break out of break downs (that sounds stupid....) to see if this observation changes. I will try in the next couple days to throw together a more comprehensive report and I'll pdf it at work so it will be readable by all.

Wish I could give stats for midwest and west (esp given the Lukas debate), but my data there is limited only to stakes races, which would present what I would assume a priori to be a biased sample. I must say though that of the trainers given, all had enough observations to say statistically that the percentages are an unbiased estimate of the mean breakdown/van off rate they had in 2004. Rule of thumb in stats is that you need at least 40 observations to have an estimate that is reliable. D. Wayne had 330, so on the basis of cold math, his rate is legit.

[Tom]

Test line up -

I have the vbest luck when I first set up the text in Word, then copy it, use the first code marks, paste it, then use the close code marks.

[BillW]

Test line up -

I have the vbest luck when I first set up the text in Word, then copy it, use the first code marks, paste it, then use the close code marks.

I think that may be closer to his actual procedure. Result was no spaces in the text. Not sure weather he chose a non-proportional font or not though.

[OTM Al]

Well I plans ended up changing for the weekend, so I sat down and ran off some numbers. Here is the file in Word. I had to zip it as there is a 30kb limit. Anyone that would like it formatted as a .pdf, I can do that Monday. Just let me know. I would say enjoy but given the subject matter that isn't quite appropriate.

[Lasix1]

Impressive data, indeed, OTM AL. In the last table, the comparatively high figure for Lukas really does jump out at you. Bond's record is also high, but his number of starts was actually lower than Lukas', and given your figure of 40 starts as necessary for statistical significance, these are well above that range for both of these high break-down trainers and thus capable of telling us something.

From these data, it would appear that the wide-spread suspicion that Lukas is a--if not the---break-down King may be well-founded, but it sure would be nice if we could somehow get some westcoast data to confirm.

I wonder too if we arranged trainer data by break-downs per start by type of race what it would show. If claiming stock breaks down more often than allowance or Stakes horses do, as your data suggest, then trainers that have a larger or smaller stable of claiming horses should be higher or lower in the data. If the assumption that high-profile trainers like Lukas and Bond halter less claiming stock is correct, then their break-down statistics are even more telling.

Thanks again for your well-crafted work in putting these tables together. Given the absence of a truly meaningful statistic like career-ending break-downs-per-start for trainers, these data are likely to be as good as we are going to get.

[BillW]

Impressive data, indeed, OTM AL. In the last table, the comparatively high figure for Lukas really does jump out at you. Bond's record is also high, but his number of starts was actually lower than Lukas', and given your figure of 40 starts as necessary for statistical significance, these are well above that range for both of these high break-down trainers and thus capable of telling us something.

From these data, it would appear that the wide-spread suspicion that Lukas is a--if not the---break-down King may be well-founded, but it sure would be nice if we could somehow get some westcoast data to confirm.



That's an interesting conclusion when Lukas is 6th out of 11 in that table. I'd be curious as to how you arrived at it. I'm assuming you were referring to the Word file that OTMAl just posted.

Bill

[Lasix1]

That's an interesting conclusion when Lukas is 6th out of 11 in that table. I'd be curious as to how you arrived at it. I'm assuming you were referring to the Word file that OTMAl just posted.

Bill
By combining the BR/V Runners and BR/ Runners columns (the only data we've got in this table) Lukas comes in tied for the lead with Bond at 2.12.

[OTM Al]

One year's sample is hardly conclusive, but it did make for an interesting excercise. One should in no way call Lukas the "break down king" though. He certainly had horses get hurt on high profile tracks last year, but what jumped out at me the most was Philly Park. I've had the feeling for a long time that there was where a lot of injuries were happening and personally I don't bet there because of that feeling. Note too that Lukas had only 1 actual recorded breakdown and I would guess that none of his happened at Pha. I'm no fan of his but I don't think we should be blaming him as much as seems to be the case. I believe that he is pushing horses so that he can retain/reaquire his past glory. I expect to see this sort of behavior from Baffert soon and think we may already be seeing some of it from Zito. All of them are on the downslide from what they were a few years back and I expect they get constant pressure from their owners to push push push. No excuse for giving into that but then they go against their owners, the quality of their strings slips even more than it already has. All this said though, I don't want to believe there is malice there out of any of them. I just make it a habit not to bet them and usually it does me well. You all can interpret these stats as you will. To me they are just numbers, the sort of thing I do every day at my job, but again I think it would be wrong to base wide assumptions on what is a relatively small sample

[OTM Al]

Oh, and Lasix1, BrV already combines both breakdowns and van offs. Br gives only actual breakdowns. I felt it was important to split out the numbers that likely represent actual deaths as a contrast to major injuries (including what were likely deaths)

[Lasix1]

Oh, and Lasix1, BrV already combines both breakdowns and van offs. Br gives only actual breakdowns. I felt it was important to split out the numbers that likely represent actual deaths as a contrast to major injuries (including what were likely deaths)
OK, if we're going to split hairs here, these data show Lukas very high in the "hurts horses" category. As OTM AL says, one year is hardly definitive, but since it's all we've got for now, it does suggest that the stereotypes about Lukas being hard on horses are not wholly without foundation as some on this board have suggested in the past. If someone has better data to correct that impression, I hope they'll post it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Before this data was posted, did ANYONE in their right mind think of H. James Bond as one of the "kings of the breakdowns?"

NO, of course not. Meaning, the data MAY be too small in sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions, despite this "40 is all you need" statement.

If handicappers based their betting decisions on 40 race samples, they'd be broke more often not! We all know that 40 races is too small a sample when it comes to handicapping and racing.

I'm not saying the data is meaningless....it's quite interesting and revealing....the fact that Lukas is near the top is also interesting, but again, 300 races is only a fraction of what he runs in a year. What if he had 700 other starters out west, with only 1 breakdown? Where would that place him in total?

With only 300 some odd starters for Lukas, and 1500+ starters for Lake, how can there be any real comparison? Take the first 330 races for Lake and tell me how many breakdowns he had in that sample.....he could have easily had 4 or 5, like Lukas....you see what I'm trying to say here?

But again, I applaud OTM Al for putting this stuff out there. It's what I've really been dying to see....I hope we can get some other folks out there with big DBs to run additional queries for a more complete picture....

[KingChas]

but what jumped out at me the most was Philly Park. I've had the feeling for a long time that there was where a lot of injuries were happening and personally I don't bet there because of that feeling.

The question OTM ,are you findings based on number of horse's entered/breakdown%?I was having a hard time reading the charts.Also note that while NY,Cal,NJ etc... run a circuit. (Ala track to track per season) While Pha Park runs year round no break.Also some tracks that run in winter don't have full fields,4-5-6 horse's entered.Would the %'s jump if you comingled NY(Bel,Aqu,Spa )& Cal (entire tracks).Just wondered-KC

[KingChas]

I come up with NY circuit= 2.9%. Higher than Pha. Park.Actually highest of all.Did I do the math right????

[OTM Al]

They are higher than Philly for the combination of breakdowns and van offs, but when considering breakdowns alone it is not even close. Philly had nearly twice the number of breakdowns (25 vs 13) while running about 400 fewer races. Again, I wanted to separate the two stats because of my belief that due to the fact that the horses on the NYRA circuit are likely to be more valuable horses, the use of the horse ambulance may be much more liberal there. On the NYRA circuit, 54 horses are listed as being vanned off, but not broken down whereas at Pha that happend only 13 times.

[OTM Al]

PA - I in no way wanted this reporting to make anyone known as "king of breakdowns". Lukas had several injuries, but he also had a lot of runners, which is why he showed up on here. There were so many trainers in the sample (over 2000) that I simply grabbed the top 10 or so in terms of number of injuries recorded. There very well may be someone on there that ran 5 times and hurt 2 of them for a whopping 40% rate for example. I could have set the queries up for this and if I was running something much more detailed I probably would have.

I think this data does show objectively why people have been critical of D. Wayne though as he has had several chronicled injuries at these high profile tracks. You are right though, California and Kentucky may be the exact opposite, but on that I can't say as I only db stakes races from the tracks I don't list and that would be a biased sample. Again I have to stress that this whole excercise is simply a one year look at what happened. One would have to show definite trends over time to make definative statements about D. Wayne or anyone else for that matter.

Also, the 40 rule is a rule of thumb when judging statistical significance. In stats as I'm sure you know, more is always better, but for some reason around 40 observations distributions start shaping up. That's why I always cringe when I see some medical finding based on 13 trial patients....

[PaceAdvantage]

PA - I in no way wanted this reporting to make anyone known as "king of breakdowns". Lukas had several injuries, but he also had a lot of runners, which is why he showed up on here.

You are certainly correct, and I apologize if my replies came off in a manner in which they weren't intended. I very much appreciate you posting these stats on the board.

[Tom]

H James Bond..intersting side note:

He was the last trainer of Sagely - local Finger Lakes hero who won 50 races lifetime! In only around 110 career starts, to boot. Won his last at 15. DRF PDF file of his lifetime record is incomplete-only shows 46 wins out of 101 starts.
Guess he doesn't break them all!