belmont * sat. may 12th

[maxwell]

[ ] = betting line

1st ~ 10 [4] ~ 1 [4] ~ 3 [4]

2nd ~ 7 [4] ~ 8 [6] ~ 12 [8]

3rd ~ 2 [5] ~ 4 [6] ~ 1a [8]

4th ~ 5 [5] ~ 3 [6] ~ 9 [8]

5th ~ 2 [8] ~ 3 [8] ~ 5 [8]

6th ~ 7 [5] ~ 9 [5] ~ 1 [8]

7th ~ 3 [6] ~ 2 [6] ~ 7 [8]

8th ~ 6 [4] ~ 8 [8] ~ 4 [10]

9th ~ 3 [6] ~ 4 [6] ~ 8 [8]

[maxwell]

two winners ~ 2nd #12 ~~ $36 ~~ 8th #8 ~~ $34

$22 profit based on odds line.

early double ~~ $100

tri box winner in the 2nd ~~ 12,8,7 ~~ $600 ~~ tri box cost for the day ~~ $100 ~~ one scratch.

[andicap]

How do you best based on your odds line? Do you look for a 25, 50 or 100% premium in the final odds?

andicap

[maxwell]

I use a combo of handicapping factors,speed figs,beaten distances,field size,class, and the public's price.

I do a lot of blocking out to eliminate negative and undervalued results. I let the remaining results determine the betting line - but there is art mixed in with the science.

I don't know how else to put it.

[andicap]

No, no. What I meant was how do you BET off your line? If you say a horse is 4-1, what do you need to bet the horse? 5-1, 6-1? 8-1?

Andicap

[maxwell]

The line speaks for itself - 4/1 line is the minimum if that is the line. But if the other horses selected are going off at their minimum, that changes things.

You cannot get 4/1 if that is the actual odds because the others will create two losses if they too are a go.

I posted a loss yesterday that I did not play for that very reason. The betting line was 6/1 and the horse went to post at 6/1, but the others were a go : lines: 6/1 off at 6/1 ~ 6/1 off at 8/1 ~ 8/1 off at 19/1.

You threw me a bit - I thought you were saying: How do you best base your odds line.

I was up at 6:00 so I was a little bagged by then - lol