New book ideas

[cj]

If you knew a winning player was going to write a handicapping/wagering book, what things would you want included in the book?

[Big Bill]

cj,

Great question. It would take days for me to go through my notes and files to find those 'things' that I wish someone would answer for me. However, here is one that is fresh on my mind:

When looking at a horse's last race to determine if it is suitable for selection as a paceline, and the horse won the race, how does one determine whether the horse was "loose on the lead" and everything (pace, final time, etc.) might make the race unusable for a paceline? Or how does one determine that it is indeed a good race to use for paceline selection?

Big Bill

[Bobby]

If I wuz to write a book on handicapping and I wuz profitable at it, I do one specifically on TURF racing cuz that's something that's sorely lacking on bookshelfs: a good detailed book on how to play turf races. Sprints and routes.

There's a helluva lot more to it than the final fraction. How do the placement of the rails effect things? How does a beat up, run down course effect things? How's pace different? Why are beyers not as effective. Dirt/turf switchers and vice versa. Why are sprints so much different than routes?

I wouldn't do a steve davidowitz or tom ainsle "try to cover everything under the sun" type book. I would focus on one big thing such as turf racing or few smaller, related items.

Just ideas.

[hurrikane]

the mental side, money management and a realistic look at the business side. I dont' think there is much you could write on selection.

[cj]

My thoughts are, noone has ever merged the actual handicapping and the wagering part. That is what I would like to see. Analyzing races, forming odds lines or some type of opinion, and how it is applied at the window.

I've read good books on handicapping (Beyer, Quirin, Quinn,) and good books on money management and betting (Meadow, Fierro,) but none that really explore both aspects at the same time.

[bettheoverlay]

I've read all the handicapping books, and I really don't need another one. What I want is a book covering wagering. Thats the most difficult thing to learn, if it can be learned at all.

Ainslies "The Handicappers Handbook" type of book. Updated with lots of wagering stragies covering specific days, or maybe a week, at the races. I loved that book.

[Overlay]

A book along the lines of Mark Cramer's Value Handicapping, but which uses quantitative criteria in odds formulation, rather than relying on educated guess or subjective "feel". I think that having as accurate an idea as possible of true winning probabilities greatly simplifies the betting/money management side of the game, since you would then know what your edge is in any given situation. There's also a need for information on rating entire fields (which is really the true meaning of "handicapping"), rather than totally eliminating horses from consideration one by one (using whatever standards or set of "rules" you choose) until you're left with the most likely winner (which is usually obvious to everyone else, too).

[andicap]

Wagering is a good one -- that's my weak area.

Here are others --

-- how to really read a result chart for fun and profit. Not the Nick Borg "Off the Charts" slap job, but something really sophisticated with lots of examples.

-- Something along the lines of "The 10 Myths of Handicapping." How many of the handicapping "truths" you hear from all the other books don't always apply. Not that they are wrong per se, but they are often the wrong solution for a particular situation. There's more money going against the conventional wisdom. E.g. it's a speed game, look for early speed. Well, I think there's a lot of money to be made looking for sustained horses at high odds to fill out the underside of exactas and trifectas in the right situation. They tend to be more consistent than early horses given the right pace situation.

-- Handicapping fillies/mares. These are the hardest -- their form cycles are shorter and sharper. You've got the problems in the spring being in heat, etc. I've heard from some pros that you should look at fillies in a completely different light than colts and horses. And fillies are different than mares.

-- A real good primer on turf racing because of the full fields and higher prices.

[formula_2002]

My thoughts are, noone has ever merged the actual handicapping and the wagering part. That is what I would like to see. Analyzing races, forming odds lines or some type of opinion, and how it is applied at the window.

.

Now you're cooking.. The window!! It's the final and most important leg of the race...

The book you are looking for has already been written.
Burton Fabricand's (Ph.D) "Horse Sense" copy write 1965 with an update 1976.



He formulates a system (theory) of "Maximum Confusion" (when and when not to bet the favorite) and then applies "A Rigorous Application of Mathematical Methods To Successful Betting at the track"...

He covers it all, the system, the analysis and to some extent the betting.

Joe M.

[46zilzal]

I've read all the handicapping books, and I really don't need another one. What I want is a book covering wagering. Thats the most difficult thing to learn, if it can be learned at all.

Mitchell's books, Ziembia and Fiero's Four Quarters of Horse Investing address things well in that arena.

[kingfin66]

I would like to see a book slanted to the esoteric side of racing. Something that discusses database handicapping and how to build handicapping models would be interesting. I would prefer that this type of book be written in layman's terms so that most of us horseplayers lacking in science degrees can follow along.

[KingChas]

The idiosyncrasy's of the race tracks.I think Cramer(correct me if wrong) touched on this ,but much too short a piece.Little tidbits about all tracks maybe somethings only the hometown players know.Turf races inner & outer courses,rail movement..etc.How about a sloppy track (Spa) that with the heat is drying quickly possibly setting up a bias.Visa - versa.He touched on that about the rail and outside posts sprint and route.Little biases not known to all.Mainly how weather and track surface change a racetracks tendencies.Plus hometrack trainers and horses for courses tendencies.

Plus many chapters on what Kingfin just said above. ;)

[KingChas]

Oops forgot one more.This I find very interesting and have been trying to accomplish for the last couple years.Very sporadic results.

How to spot a key race before anyone else does!
Laymans terms before it becomes a future key race.
Anyone can see horses coming out of a certain race and winning in their next start.I'm trying to see it before that.

Talking bottom level on up-(MDN-CLM+)

[Mike P]

I would like to see a book dealing with trainer intent.

[Bobby]

My thoughts are, noone has ever merged the actual handicapping and the wagering part.

The scope:
That's a big book.

An encyclopedia.

[The Judge]

I would like to see more on the world stage who is who in trainer's, sires, owners etc more in depth then what out there now.

[ezpace]

Are you done writing the chapter index and forward yet???

[BarnieClockerbigal]

There's a helluva lot more to it than the final fraction. How do the placement of the rails effect things? How does a beat up, run down course effect things? How's pace different? Why are beyers not as effective. Dirt/turf switchers and vice versa. Why are sprints so much different than routes?



well besides final fractions, there are trips, trouble lines, and distance questions.

I usually just steer clear of turf races less than 7F.

American Jockeys just aren't that good at turf sprints (there are some callie jocks who are the exception) and they usually screw up somehow even when they have the best hoss.

Allan

[thelyingthief]

i dont really understand the complaint about "wagering". it is relatively simple to explore one's betting records (if you keep them), and determine what kinds of bets have been or might have been profitable, and then, uh, make them.

mostly, when people start the "wagering" plaint, i really think it's a discipline problem they must address.

[RXB]

i dont really understand the complaint about "wagering". it is relatively simple to explore one's betting records (if you keep them), and determine what kinds of bets have been or might have been profitable, and then, uh, make them.

mostly, when people start the "wagering" plaint, i really think it's a discipline problem they must address.

Yep.

[Richard]

WINNING THOROUGHBRED STRATEGIES by Dick Mitchell covers both handicapping and money management.

[tcat]

kingfin66 - the Handicapping seminar sponsored by Ken Massa and open to the public will feature several hours of information using Access, building data bases, creating queries and data base studies. July 13 in Las Vegas.

[kingfin66]

I appreciate the info. Now, I'm sure that you're Tom Walters! Not that there's anything wrong with that. :)

[michiken]

I would like to see an all inclusive book that would spark the interest of the 'next generation handicapper'. As I grow older, I reflect back on some things that were taught to me and wonder how these 'tidbits' will ever get passed on?

With all the BRAINS on this site, why don't we group together and write our own 'Open Source Handicapping Manual'? Each person could contribute articles on their favorite topics and to create the 'The Unofficial Pace Advantage Handicapping Bible for Dummies!'. Each person would be credited with a by-line. It could be a living document that continues to grow as time evolves and would allow all of us to pass on our tidbits of info .......

I for one could donate my time to write something (although it would never be as eloquent as Derby Trail's). It could be as simple as each user picking a topic and setting a target date for release. We could all just open notepad and start writing simple text documents and I bet the creative juices would just start flowing? We could also hyperlink all existing web docs/sites into one nice format.

If their would be enough interest, I would even volunteer to organize/collect all the articles and make them into pdfs..... We could let PA distribute it for a nominal $ fee to help with the costs that for this forum that we enjoy.

My thoughts for a basic outline:

Chapter 1: The Basics, Track Layout, Poles, Starting Gate, etc
Chapter 2: Times, Fractions, Lengths, etc.
Chapter 3: Distances, Surfaces, Claiming Prices, etc
Chapter 4: Calculations and Making Your Own Figs
Chapter 5: Pace Analysis and Running Styles.
Chapter 6: Jockeys, Trainers, etc.
Chapter 7: Angles, Success Stories, $$ Big Hits.
Chapter 8: Wager Types, Wagering and Money Management
Chapter 9: Aneqdotes and trips down memory lane.
Chapter 10: Breeding
Chapter 11: The Triple Crown - Breeders Cup
Chapter 12: Trip Handicapping, Medication, etc.

Let's hope that we never get to Chapter 13 (bankruptcy!)


Just food for thought.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"Complete Thoroughbred Trainers Test. Over 400 questions/answers. Covers Vet Test, Barn Test, Stewards Test. VALID 50 states. New 2003 video covers training, bandaging, bits, burs & blinkers. TWO EXTRA BONUSES, "How To Buy Your First Race Horse and Do It Right" and "How To Set Up Your First Racing Stable and Do It Right." Complete package, $95.00 postage paid."
______
How about a "Public and Professional Handicapper's Test"?
You could issue a certificate, eventually recognized by NTRA and the industry- and maybe the family and friends too!
Good way to legitimize betting a get respect for public handicappers.

[Wiley]

Michiken,
I think you do need a chapter 13 and in my opinion it shoud be moved up a bit. How about 'Evaluating a horses physical appearance prerace, warmups, workouts etc'. Like your idea and in reality you can probably go through all of the great information generated over the years at this site and consolidate it into the format you describe. Quite an endeavor on the editing part though.

[highnote]

As far as turf racing, check out "Blinkers Off" by Cary Fotias. Cramer, Quinn and Meadows have given it a lot of praise. Cramer and Quinn both said some of the ideas in the book are revolutionary. I'm really surprised it hasn't been more popular. It's probably because it is self-published.

Fotias coined (I should say trademarked) dozens of new terms in the book. TURF DECLINE LINE is my favorite. I use it all the time on the turf. It's one of those factors that is underutilized, but incredibly powerful. You'll get some nice price horses when you bet one that's on a TURF DECLINE LINE.

The book is beautifully written and the examples are very clear.

It's one of those books that should be on every handicappers bookshelf (IMO). I'll bring a few along to the Saratoga Toga Party this Aug. If you want to see a copy while you're there, you can decide for yourself if it's worth having.

By the way, I noticed on one of Suff's posts that Fotias is a guest speaker with Harvey Pack at Siro's -- Aug 25, I think.

Finally, I like the idea of an open source handicapping book -- e-book -- that anyone can contribute to. However, there probably needs to be a committee or at least an editor or two that decides what submissions are acceptable. Otherwise, the PA website serves the same purpose.

js

[delayjf]

Do you use his speed/pace figures? and if not, how are you able to apply his theories with the figures you do use?

[highnote]

I use his speed and pace figs. You might be able to use other people's sp/pace figs, but his work because of the way he makes them -- they're velocity based speed/pace figs. Somehow he uses feet per second to make his figs.

[dav4463]

I would like to see a large sample of races analyzed, compared, and then bet with different approaches. The first approach would be the win only bettor, then the bettor who bets place and/or show, and the third approach would be by an exotics bettor. Compare and contrast the different approaches so that a player has more of an idea what to expect and learn which bet is best for each race.

[cj]

-- they're velocity based speed/pace figs. Somehow he uses feet per second to make his figs.

All speed figures are velocity based, they are just expressed in different formats.

[captvancouver]

I am just a newbie here and to racing in general, altho I have dabbled in the past.

What I would love is an expose of whats happening on the other side of the fence,from the jockeys and trainers perspective. I bet in 5 maiden races on Monday and Tuesday ,3 at Delmar and 2 at Philly, and non of the top 3 favs won in any of those races.There were no more than 3 first time starters in any of the races.lThe horse that won in each race was a first time starter, at 4 or 5 to 1 odds.Usually I can duck a first time starter who are crowd favorites,just by following the tote,but not a long shot.I figured the odds of that happening in ALL of the 5 races I looked at were about 300 to 1. Whats happening? I hate to think that there was any one on the other side of the fence not following the Duke of Marquis rules.I m mad as hell about it .

I have a friend at the local small track who watchs for jockey switches, from one camp to another (e.g. one trainer to another) , and he claims he can pick winners on that basis.Another friend who used to bet a lot says that if you knew the birthdates of the jockeys, you could bet their races on their birthdays and do well.

Someone please tell me it ain t true.

Thanks

Capt Vancouver

[Overlay]

For what it's worth, as far back as Winning at the Races in 1979, Quirin found that actual odds were the single most powerful predictive factor for finding "live" first-time starters (which I believe he assumed would be two-year-olds). Quirin's statistical cutoff point for separating the sheep from the goats was 6-1. I always figure two-year-old first-time starters at 5-1 or 9-2 in my calculations when looking for overlays. Below those odds, they become underlays based on actual winning percentage (as illustrated by the fact that all the short-priced horses in the races you cite apparently lost), and above those odds, they have an impact value well below 1.00.

[dav4463]

I don't remember the jockey, but back when Trinity Meadows was running races, I remember the announcer said one of the jockeys was celebrating his birthday with a winner in the first race. I think he won 3 or 4 that day ! Birthday presents ? I hope not !

[Vegas711]

Avoid writing on how to read a racing form, things like that which are in every book. NO MORE GENERAL HANDICAPPING IDEAS.

I would focus on 1 factor like pace handicapping and go into very very deep details.Or Class handicapping or just form handicapping, but don't cover more than 1.