Circumstances dictate outcomes

[DrugSalvastore]

I just think a lot of people don't understand how circumstances dictate outcomes. I bet Giacomo in the Derby future book---and made my only win bet in the Derby on him. I did my pre-Derby Giacomo tout on the AOL board and not here---so this all looks after the fact now--but here is why he was the right play in the Derby.

Quite simply he is a one-paced horse who looked to absolutley adore a fast-paced ten furlong race. You know going in he had a talent deficancy (he was slow on everyone's figures and hadn't won anything other than a maiden race) but you only had two very talanted horses in the race--and they were both short priced horses who looked like HORRIBLE bets. Bellemy Road is a need the lead type with a wide post--and it was obvious he wasn't getting the lead. Afleet Alex is by a sprint sire and performed tremendously in sprint stakes--going into the Derby I thought he would fail miserably at a classic distance.

This race looked like it had to fall apart going in--and Giacomo was THE ONLY horse who figured to thrive if the race did fall apart. His running style is almost identical to Invisible Ink's...and his talent is very comparable if not a notch better than Ink's. Holy Bull offspring have always done well at Churchill Downs--his best son Macho Uno beat a super deep field in the Breeders Cup Juvenile over the CD track--a field that included future Hall of Famer Point Given, Dubai World Cup hero Street Cry, super Baffert 2yo Flame Thrower, and a half bro to Ghostzapper named City Zip (who swept all three 2yo stakes at Saratoga that year)

Because of the circumstances of the race, I think Giacomo figured to win that race about as much as any other horse in that field did. People thought I was being arrogant somehow when I said that he was unimpressive and a big disapointing in victory after the race--but everything went as planned for him and he barely managed to get up. I felt lucky as hell to win that race. I was DEAD wrong on Afleet Alex---he's a much better horse than I figured him out to be. It's remarkable that he holds the Stakes record for the six furlong Sanford Stakes at Saratoga (a race that Secretariat won, and the only race Man O' War ever lost) and yet he has enough stamina to also have a daylight victory in the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes on his resume.

[DrugSalvastore]

I'm going to carry this on to baseball. Baseball is simply just a game of styles, matchups, and circumstances dictating outcomes. Even more so than horse racing is.

Pedro Martinez is one of my favorite all-time pitchers--a guy who I feel is very underrated. In Pedro's pitching career opposing batters have a lifetime .207 batting average against him. He's an awesome pitcher with just really great stuff. Contact hitters, with speed, who tend to stay within themselves do match up very well against him though. For example...

* The powerless Craig Counsell is 5-for-12 lifetime against Pedro

* Base stealing artist Marquis Grissom is an otherworldly 13-for-23 with 4 doubles, a triple, a homer, and three walks off Pedro.

* Bip Roberts (a guy with 250 steals and just 29 HR's lifetime) is 7-for-17 with 3 walks off Pedro.

* Switch hitting Gregg Jefferies is 15-for-32 lifetime off Pedro.

Other profile guys who've owned Pedro include Lofton, Biggio, Dykstra, Micky Morandini, Shannon Stewart, Chrisitan Guzman etc.

The best pitcher in the game today is Johan "the Supernatural" Santana. He's a fastball/change up lefty--and as great as he is--he's far from invincible against some right handed batters who thrive on hitting left handed fastball/changeup pitchers. Reed Johnson is 7-for-12 against the "supernatural" and another profile guy Bengie Molina is 7-for-14 against him.

For the longest time the guy with the single most dominiant pitch in the game is Mario Rivera and his cutter (cut-fastball) that dives in on the hands of lefties. One of the best hitters of cut-fastballs I've ever seen is lifetime .300+ hitter Edgar Martinez. So it shouldn't be the biggest shock of all-time that Edgar is 10-for-16 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, and 3 walks lifetime against Rivera.

[keilan]

Drugs do us a favor and provide the link to whichever other site you posted Giacomo as the probable winner. I would be interested in what you wrote prior to the race.

[kingfin66]

Drugs do us a favor and provide the link to whichever other site you posted Giacomo as the probable winner. I would be interested in what you wrote prior to the race.

Same here. I don't mind the occasional red board from somebody I know to be a horseplayer. I don't like it at all when it comes from somebody who has not so much as posted a pick on this site.

[J-bred]

Circumstances not only dictate outcomes, they dictate the figures that each runner in that race were assigned, which are in turn used by bettors to make their decisions, which then dictates the figures given to these horses in future races, because users of the projection method assign figures based on past figures (which as previously stated are dictated by circumstances as much as the horses' ability), which turns speed figures into a self fulfilling prophecy.

If a closer is able to win a race because the pace was fast, it will get a higher figure than those it beat. But if the pace was slow and the closer cannot catch a loose on the lead frontrunner (or one racing over a biased surface) then its figure will be lower than that early pace horse, even though both efforts by that runner were equivalent. Thus we can see that the figures earned by horses are as dependent on circumstances as they are on ability.

The problem is that most speed handicappers (not all) assume that an effort can be boiled down to a number, and that this number overrides other factors when analyzing a race. They cannot envision how a race will be run, how horses react when running amongst each other, or how outside factors such as the track condition and bias can influence the runners. Then when the figures don't work for a particular race they must find a reason that their numbers "didn't work", when all a speed figure tells you is one analyst's interpretation of how fast a horse allegedly ran in the past (and while not accounting for those pesky circumstances again), which does not necessarily predict how fast it will run in the future, because class is not a static concept that can be measured with a number from the past but dynamic in the sense that a horse's class can change from month to month and even day to day.

And in case anyone cares, you can go to Fezzik's message board and look up the posts by "yankee", where you will see that I not only picked Giacomo in the Kentucky Derby but also Buzzards Bay in the Santa Anita Derby.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Speed figures do not account for many other variables, Which you 2 do. That is a good attitiude!
My only claim is G was 1 of 15 I picked!

[DrugSalvastore]

Same here. I don't mind the occasional red board from somebody I know to be a horseplayer. I don't like it at all when it comes from somebody who has not so much as posted a pick on this site.

Yea, like I have a lot to gain by lying about cashing on the now disgraced Derby winner! Here is a copy of my post from the AOL message board. I'd provide you with everything I said about Giacomo before the Derby--but my computer's slow from spyware (those darn porn sites!) and no sane person would want to read all that ancient crap anyway. Below is the post

" ‹prev message next message›

Message (Msg # 384887:132652)
Subject: DrugS has his Derby horse
Date: 3/14/05 1:07:44 AM EST
Author: ItalianLuvGod26

Just recently I made myself a future bet for the KY Derby. I know my man big Marshall wanted a top ten from me..., I'll just let you guys know who has become my offical Derby horse for 2005. I have a history of picking my Derby horse 5-to-12 weeks out and refusing to switch off no matter what.
The 2005 DrugS selection to win the Ky Derby is---Giacomo!
I've had a high opinion of him for a little while now, but I have been gun-shy because he has three things that I really don't like about him. But, I've always thought he was the most likely Derby winner out there, so I might as well as pull the trigger now when he's still a big price. Up to 45-to-1 offshore in fact.
Here is the list of horses that Giacomo joins...the previous official DrugS picks for the Ky Derby since I started posting on this board. You have to go back to '00 to find a winner. I'm doing the race odds off the top of my head.
YEAR HORSE FINISH RACE ODDS
2004 Rock Hard Ten DNR ---------
2003 Empire Maker 2nd 9-to-5
2002 Perfect Drift 3rd 9-to-1
2001 Invisible Ink 2nd 50-to-1
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 1st $6.60
I've been close...but that only counts in horse shoes I guess.
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There are a lot of other posts when I went into much more detail as to why I liked him--if you wish to look go to AOL.COM---than sports message boards, than find the one for horse racing. My AOL name is Italianluvgod26. That was going to be my boxing nickname when I turned pro--but it turned out I couldn't fight worth a damn when I met legit opposition. The 26 is an old sports number. They all call me DrugS though. In all seriousness, I got nothing to sell, I'm no tout, no books on the way...no reasons to lie. I've made a living betting so far---but I'm only doing this because I have no formal education and no other talents at all. It might be I've just been really lucky for a real long time--and one year the bubble may burst and I might be working at McDonalds and broke. Who knows. A lot of people insist I got lucky with Giacomo in the Derby--I always anticipate that the KY Derby field will collapse and I adore betting those grinders like Drift, Ink, Empire Maker, Giacomo etc. Horses like RocK Hard Ten and Fu Peg just happened to be super talented horses who can come from off a fast pace. I'm the only living person who still thinks that RHT would have beat Smarty had he been elidigble to run in the '04 Derby.

The point is that circumstances dictate outcomes--and most of the time the eventual circumstances of the race can be predicted before the race runs. If you thought the Derby would be a fast paced ten furlong race, and the race would collapse, I think Giacomo was by far the most logical one-paced grinder to suck past the tiring field. I used 14 horses under him in the exacta, and Closing Argument wasn't one of them..so I didn't get rich on the race..I didn't even have the exacta! I did well though.

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow, and you made that post in March no less! By the way, where do I find the AOL horse board?

[cj]

Lots of people like Giacomo in March that didn't like him on the first Saturday in May, good job sticking with him. Where is that board?

[BillW]

Wow, and you made that post in March no less! By the way, where do I find the AOL horse board?

Step 1 - Sign up for AOL service ...

[PaceAdvantage]

I used to post on the AOL board years ago....seriously, I thought it disbanded....

[twobet]

http://sports.channel.aol.com/horseracing

[JPinMaryland]

you know, I started reading Keilan's post: "Drugs do us a favor..." and thought it was a call to tune in, turn on, etc. NOte to self: improve reading skills.

[keilan]

Guys I had little doubt that Drugs called Giacomo, I wished only to read the strength of his opinion and when he wrote the post. Obviously he knew someone would call him on it.

Since non-US residents can not register at that site I'm still unable to read anything written there.

[Suff]

Yea, like I have a lot to gain by lying about cashing on the now disgraced Derby winner! Here is a copy of my post from the AOL message board. I'd provide you with everything I said about Giacomo before the Derby--but my computer's slow from spyware (those darn porn sites!) and no sane person would want to read all that ancient crap anyway. Below is the post
.


If you were going to pick one of your posts, why pick this one? Your redboard included pace situations, odds and events that occured well after this post. Even if spyware and porn were slowing you down , I'd think you'd have selected a more timely post, that matched your redboard anaylsis. Say.... one from May, not March. The 14th no less. I guess it is easier to go back 4 months on the AOl board than go back a month and a half.

I'm curious how the porn and the spyware effects your professional horseplay? If cutting a Post from one Board to another is heavy lifting...how the hell are you betting? For profit!

[DrugSalvastore]

If you were going to pick one of your posts, why pick this one? Your redboard included pace situations, odds and events that occured well after this post. Even if spyware and porn were slowing you down , I'd think you'd have selected a more timely post, that matched your redboard anaylsis. Say.... one from May, not March. The 14th no less.

Dude, I didn't post here or on the AOL board the week of the Derby, so I have nothing that juicy. It was a busy time for me....but I did tell those who IM'ed me I was staying with Giacomo--as I never jump off of a horse tailor-made for a race. I started this thread to try and prove a point that circumstances dictate outcomes--not to try and say how great a handicapper I am. Frankly, I don't give a damn if all the people here collectivley think I'm the worst handicapper ever. Doesn't change a thing for me. It was my folly to use the Derby as the example though---i guess. I will use the only other major ten furlong dirt race run this year as my example. I'm talking about the Santa Anita Handicap. The lesson is that CIRCUMSTANCES DICTATE OUTCOMES. Below is the post.

Message (Msg # 384887:131493)
Subject: Betting The Big Cap
Date: 3/3/05 8:11:42 PM EST
Author: ItalianLuvGod26


http://boards.aol.com/aol/images/transparent.gifHere is how I plan to bet the Big Cap.....


There is an old handicapping angle called "the best horse." Saint Liam is by far the best horse in the race...but you go broke taking very short prices, that give lots of weight going long, and are breaking from the 11 hole. Hopefully the fast pace can crack him.

I am going to bet a few bucks on Borrego this race---not because I think the horse is that good (this horse is a faint-hearted bum!) but because I think all the circumstances of this race could play to his favor....and he should be a huge price.

Borrego will get a perfect pace scenario, he gets a very positive rider switch from Tyler Baze (who sucks with off-the-pace route horses) to 24-karat Garret Gomez, he gets all kinds of weight from SL and RHT, he gets a cozy inside post, and his 3-2-1-0 lifetime record at SA suggests that he is very fond of this track. He's 0-for-7 lifetime at tracks other than Santa Anita. I think the 8.5 furlong prep will serve him good for this race as well. The last time he used an 8.5 furlong prep was for the Arkansas Derby, and in that race he ran 2nd beaten 1 1/2 lengths to the useful colt Smarty Jones.

Make no mistake...this is not a real good horse by any stretch....but I think he can stumble into a big upset win on Saturday. I'll have a small win bet on him, and some shrimpy exactas with RHT, SL, Frankel, and IMP. Don't be surprised if SL wins this race in a cakewalk though.

I always thought they should rename this race, they should call it The Big Crap! The Dubai Cup has really taken away from this race since they
started it. Good luck to all.
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So you can see---I think VERY LOW of Borrego--but I bet him against horses I liked a lot more because the race was tailor-made for him. He was 3rd beaten about 2 lengths at 25-to-1 odds despite being blocked. I mentioned I used him with RHT in the exacta--he won the race--had Borrego got up for 2nd I would have had a nice exacta. The trifecta of RHT to Congrats (9-to-1 odds I think) to Borrego paid about $1,000 on a $1 ticket as I recall. Unlike the Derby, it was a near miss, but it proves my point that CIRCUMSTANCES DICTATE OUTCOMES. I also vow to never in my life pull another post from another board and post it here. That's really lame ass stuff. I hope someone can take something productive from this--and next time they see a faint hearted loser (like a Borrego or a Giacomo) who are entered in a race tailormade for them---and are sitting up on the board at a huge price--that they go with the long odds race-profile horse instead of the heavy favorites.

[Suff]

, so I have nothing that juicy. It was a busy time for me....but I did tell those who IM'ed me I was staying with Giacomo--.

April was a busy month.

[DrugSalvastore]

April was a busy month.

I detect sarcasm! Seriously though, I was posting in here and on AOL in March and early April. I bet a little baseball and the horse racing season heats up right around the time I left the two boards. I didn't even mention Giacomo on this board--as no one knows me here and the discussion never got to the Derby when I was here. Did I hide from this board too because I picked him? After his big loss to Consildator I posted on the AOL board that he still was my Derby winner, and in the AOL post that I put up here didn't I say "I always stick with my early pick no matter what."

Dude, when I'm not on this board or AOL or any other board in August---it's probably because I'm focused on an important race meet and not because my futurebook wager to win the Travers hasn't been impressive in his preps.

Anyway, I guess the modern day Sherlock Holmes with the American Flag and Red Sox lust has exposed me for the massive fraud that I am. Maybe he should run for Gov on the same ticket as the NY attorney general. It's kind of funny that this thread was meant to aid handicappers--and help them realize that the best horse isn't always the most appropriate horse to bet in the race. I think all anyone can now get from this thread is that Bengie Molina hits Johan Santana well--and that The notorious SUFF doesn't take anyone for their word unless they can produce very overwhelming proof. After I cash, maybe next time I'll ask the tellers if they can take my winning ticket to the back and get a copy of it from the copier...or I can find someone with a polorid camera and have them take my picture while holding the ticket and three other forms of government ID. The dude would have fit in nicely with the 12 jurrors who let OJ off the hook. He would have wanted to see the crime on video tape in order to convict. LOL--oh well. This thread gets an F. I guess a D-, maybe someone who saw it can make cash betting Reed Johnson can get a hit off of Santana next time the Jays and Twins play. I had high hopes for this thread--it went dreadful fast.

[JustMissed]

Hey guys, how about laying off DrugS.

You know he is connected with the backside and even lived with a famous trainer. Heck, for all we know he may be the millionaire player talked about at another thread.

Give the guy a break.

DrugSalvastore wrote:"But I'm the son of two old racehorse trainers--I've hotwalked horses and worked around them before--one of the trainers I lived with and worked for was on the cover of the Simulcast Weekly last week...so I have a decent idea of this subject..and while it's useful stuff..I really doubt that mastering the body language of a race horse is going to lead to great success at the windows."


JM :lol:

[DrugSalvastore]

Hey guys, how about laying off DrugS.

You know he is connected with the backside and even lived with a famous trainer. Heck, for all we know he may be the millionaire player talked about at another thread.

Give the guy a break.

JM :lol:

Wow--you guys are a riot. I am not really that connected--in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if thirty people on here had better connections. Having connections isn't even much of an advantage in this game.

I wish I was a millionaire---if I was I wouldn't be eating at KFC and dealing with a laptop that is utter junk. It's cool though!...I'll just be happy if I'm not living off of food stamps five years from now

[andicap]

"Snow in April?"

are we talking about the upper Midwest or New England?

[toetoe]

Drug,

Just ask them for a check. Then use photocopies of the checks to fatten your handy-crapping book. That's what I did, anyway.