USING CJ'S FIGS

[formula_2002]

My Black Box system (system x13) :rolleyes:

base line; ( from 01/01/05 up to but not including Belmont Day)

4681 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 16% profit.


"live plays"; (Belmont Day to date)

249 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 40% profit.Joe M

[cj]

Whatever System 13 is, I'd keep it under my hat! Unless of course you want to mail me the specifics. ;)

I have to be honest, I opened this thread with a sense of impending doom, LOL!

[Dave Schwartz]

FOrmula,

Sorry but you have not yet proven that the game is beatable. You will need a larger sample size.

<G>


SOrry, could not resist.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[traynor]

Dave Schwartz wote <Sorry but you have not yet proven that the game is beatable. You will need a larger sample size.>

There is a problem with the proof; if it is historical, the results do not quantify the effect of additional wagers in the pools. That is, a historical record is just that, rather than being "proof." It is a big problem with software "adjustments" made after-the-fact to an algorithm that "would have selected" some long priced winners.

For betting purposes, we go with the "90% rule" (again, with apologies to those statistically inclined forum members who have greater faith in the ability of past history to predict future returns than we are willing to wager on). If you can't show a profit with the central 90% of your dataset over time, it isn't worth betting on. The idea is not to base wagers on the entire sample, or a larger sample, but rather on a representative sample.

The argument that all results should be used is seriously flawed; statistical analysis, especially in horse racing, is primarily to predict, not to review. We have found that using a 90% slice of the dataset, mercilessly hacking off those occasional longshots and big exactas, presents a much more useful model to use for wagering purposes.
Thanks

[acorn54]

formula
looks like you are on your way to being another george soros but in the horsebetting arena.
are you seriously considering using a substantial bankroll to implement betting your selections? it would seem foolish not to.
traynor what you state i tend to agree with.
in the commodities markets, developing software to pick commodities faces similiar problems as we face in he horsebetting world.
chaos theory in the commodities market states that the future is not completely random nor is it predictable, so successful commodities traders such as george soros use trend analysis to beat the markets.
acorn

[BillW]

Dave Schwartz wote <Sorry but you have not yet proven that the game is beatable. You will need a larger sample size.>


traynor, just an FYI

"<G>" == :lol::D:lol:

He was throwing in a little sarcasm (i.e. joking).

Bill

[JustMissed]

Traynor may have missed the joke Dave was making because he was talking to the frog in his pocket.

Not sure who the "we" is that he is always referring to, maybe he has a split personality or he just has a frog in his pocket. :D

JM

[timtam]

I must be missing something with CJ's figs. I downloaded a card from his site

and all i got were numbers in different colors. There must be some kind of

program I don't have. Any help please!!!

[formula_2002]

traynorWould you say that one could apply a standard deviation analysis of incremental odds to horse racing.?

Dave Schwartz
Do you know what a standard deviation analysis is?

[formula_2002]

traders such as george soros use trend analysis to beat the markets.
acorn

The question in my mind is, if that is true, does that make him smart or LUCKY?

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/14/05)

309 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 7% profit.Joe

[Hosshead]

What are your results for straight win ? Without exactas.
Are you "playing" almost every race?

[acorn54]

The question in my mind is, if that is true, does that make him smart or LUCKY?


george soros has for so many years, and so consistently showed profits using his trend analysis approach, that it can hardly be luck.
acorn

[joeyspicks]

Soros has certainly been a profitable investor, however he made a HUGE pct of his money in a single commodity trade ( a currency trade)....a profit I believe of over a billion dollars on a single position. skill or luck ?? I dont know....first it took a hell of lot of skill just to be in that position and be able to make that kind of trade. But skill or luck at that point ??? I'm unsure....but I'd rather be lucky.....which IMHO he certainly was. Much more so than the Hunts who tried a similar trade in silver years ago and LOST millions. Its like putting everything you have (and more)....your mortage, your savings and more on Giacamo in the derby....because you " just knew" he would win. Well at 50-1 you would have done very well.....but luck or skill ??????????? Luck would be the answer...because I just don't believe ANYONE could "know". Even though there's a guy on this board ( drugstore something or other:confused: ) who CLAIMS to have known exactly what was going to happen and why....I just do not believe him). Why ? Well I do not think you could anticipate the suicide pace that was set......certainly you could "KNOW" it was going to be a "fast" pace.....but that fast??????? And all those "world class" jocks would chase the rabbit...to THAT extreme?
And would you be so confident to place that large of a bet on the outcome ??????

and if you did....I submit it was it would have been just plain old LUCK that would have been the biggest factor in your "victory". (kinda like winning a lottery)

[cj]

I must be missing something with CJ's figs. I downloaded a card from his site

and all i got were numbers in different colors. There must be some kind of

program I don't have. Any help please!!!

Hi,

What you are seeing are the free overall ratings I give out each day.

To see the full output of the program, go to my web site, and check the purchase info page, there are examples there. I don't want to post that link here.

[timtam]

Thanks to both CJ and Tom who emailed me. I greatly appreciate it.

[Suff]

Hi,

. I don't want to post that link here.

All proper now that your a millioniare?!....... :lol:

[cj]

All proper now that your a millioniare?!....... :lol:

You forgot "multi!" :lol::lol:

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/15/05)

348 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 10% profit.Joe M

[cj]

Did your system pick a box of the top two figures in today's 6th at CD? Took some of the sting out of the bullshit DQ in the 5th when it came back $366.20!

[Bobby]

Wow $366.

hey cj,

when using your software do you have a preference for DRF format as opposed to the BRIS version?

In your experience is the TSN data more prone to errors/mistakes than DRF?

[cj]

It doesn't matter much anymore as far as the figures are concerned, absolutely everything comes from my own variants and pars, even turf races. The only difference in ratings are due to DRF using 1/5ths and BRIS/TSN using 1/100ths for time. I still prefer to use DRF because I am used to the format, and I like the Tomlinson ratings.

As for errors, I don't really see any with either. At least none that ever cause crazy figures or anything like that.

[andicap]

Traynor = FH?

www.handicappers-datamine.com

?????

just a hunch....you vets know who I mean....

[formula_2002]

Did your system pick a box of the top two figures in today's 6th at CD? Took some of the sting out of the bullshit DQ in the 5th when it came back $366.20!

Nope, but hope you hit it.
Here is a sobering thought though.
If you were to break even with on such bet , you could look forward to winning 5.46 races per 1000!

So far today, the system looked at several hundred horses.
Played 4 races, won 2 and yet to hit an exacta...but the day is long..

Joe M

[JustRalph]

Did your system pick a box of the top two figures in today's 6th at CD? Took some of the sting out of the bullshit DQ in the 5th when it came back $366.20!

Cj.......you are start to interest me.........now Stop iT!

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/16/05)


375 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 19% profit.
Joe M

[cj]

Which race was the big winner to jump from 10% to 19%?

[formula_2002]

Which race was the big winner to jump from 10% to 19%?


CJ, at this time I can not be more specific about the winners.

But I feel I can include another successful type of play into the system and still be true to its central theme.

This play will swell the entire data base to 5781 plays.
Each play type is always tested on its singular merits, so I'll include this new one in my analysis

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/17/05)


453 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 47% profit.

That little add on to the system? Yesterday, 8 plays 100% profit.

Joe M

[trickey]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/17/05)


453 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 47% profit.

That little add on to the system? Yesterday, 8 plays 100% profit.

Joe M
go head Joe! Hope you are BETTING !

[formula_2002]

go head Joe! Hope you are BETTING !


I wish I was also.

Joe M

[Light]

Formula

Which of the ten different figures per horse are you using for your study?

[acorn54]

i don't think joe wants to reveal anymore and i don't blame him
acorn

[chrisg]

Its like putting everything you have (and more)....your mortage, your savings and more on Giacamo in the derby....because you " just knew" he would win. Well at 50-1 you would have done very well.....but luck or skill ??????????? Luck would be the answer...because I just don't believe ANYONE could "know". Even though there's a guy on this board ( drugstore something or other:confused: ) who CLAIMS to have known exactly what was going to happen and why....I just do not believe him). Why ? Well I do not think you could anticipate the suicide pace that was set......certainly you could "KNOW" it was going to be a "fast" pace.....but that fast??????? And all those "world class" jocks would chase the rabbit...to THAT extreme?
And would you be so confident to place that large of a bet on the outcome ??????

Give it a rest already. What do you get out of it? Who cares if he had him? So he didn't post it on this board; so what? God damn you're bitter.

I actually had Giacomo no better than 2nd in the contest on this board. I thought he was improving. The betting world almost always leans toward the hype instead of handicapping the race unbiased. Open your mind.

Price isn't a direct correlation of chance.

I don't know what you do for a living, but in my experience around owners, you'd be surprised how much $ they'll put on a horse.

[formula_2002]

i don't think joe wants to reveal anymore and i don't blame him
acorn

Yep, your're right.
Hey, this thing could tank in another week (I dont think it will).
But I do think it will calm down. But then again I'm not too sure about that either.
Right now some of the data is pointing towards significance but I need more data.

I will say this much "It's easier to get "lucky" using CJ's figures", then anything I have used in the past.

Joe M

[Tom]

I hope you are betting and not just collecting data.

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/18/05)



531 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 28% profit
.

That little add on to the system?
Yesterday, 2 plays 0% profit.

Joe M

[J-bred]

Giacomo was the classic type that isn't suited to the west coast surfaces but wakes up when shipped to the softer eastern tracks. Do the names Farda Amiga or Anees ring a bell? You know what they say about those who ignore history... :bang:

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/19/05)



600 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 34% profit
.

That little add on to the system?
Yesterday, 2 plays 0% profit.

Joe M

[grahors]

Joe,
If you need a Midwestern "tester" to help with Canterbury, let me know! LOL
Grahors99@msn.com

[formula_2002]

Joe,
If you need a Midwestern "tester" to help with Canterbury, let me know! LOL
Grahors99@msn.com


I keep waiting for the bubble to burst and it refuses!
6 of 9 test days show a profit over the previous day.

[grahors]

I have the program, but have no idea how to set up a data base for querries,
Help on this from anyone is welcome.
Cecil

[JustMissed]

I have the program, but have no idea how to set up a data base for querries,
Help on this from anyone is welcome.
Cecil

I hope you are not trying to trick ole Joe into revealing his secret "x13" system.

We all have access to CJ's figs and power ratings, but without the secret "x13", we are dead in the water.

If you figure out "x13", you better keep it to yourself.

JM :D

[cj]

You don't need any mechanical rules to use the figures, I think they stand up pretty well on their own.

I have to admit I'm amazed...against my initial instinct, I sold the program to Joe, and not only that, I custom wrote him a few tools to aid his research. I can't count how many people told me to run from Joe, but hey, what the hell! I figured I had nothing to lose, and while he may not be a convert, I think his eyes have been opened that if you use something of value that isn't readily available to the public, you have a chance to profit at this game.

[JustMissed]

CJ, I was one of those that said to run. Of course I was half-joking. I like Joe and like kidding Joe but I know he is a hard worker and I would like to see him become a winning horseplayer.

Did you see the poll about the Worst Handicapping Programs. I was shocked at the results and could not believe the poor marks that some of the programs got.

Kinda got me to thinking that if you took some of the better rated systems/software-like Massa's HTR or PaceAdvantage, and used your figs instead of the HDW/Bris/TSN/DRF figs-I wonder what kind of results one might get? I agree that by their own merit, your figs are great but you still have to do some handicapping and can't just bet the horse with the best last out performance and speed fig.

Anyway, DRF will probably buy you out before Joe gets the "x13" to market and all will be a mute point.

If not, you should consider bundling your figures with the other(s) software. In either event you won't have to worry about retirement.

JM

[formula_2002]

[QUOTE=JustMissed Anyway, DRF will probably buy you out before Joe gets the "x13" to market and all will be a mute point.


JM[/QUOTE]

JM
today's results (06/20)
"UNBELIVABLE"
especially in light of all the previous days results!

I would never market "x13".. unless of coures my grand kids want to buy it! :jump:

Now it's time to figure out if CJ's figs are really that good or have gotten better with my analysis.. I tend to think it's the former!!

Joe M

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/20/05)



648 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 38% profit
.

That little add on to the system?
Yesterday, 8 plays 40% profit.

Joe M

[Light]

Formula

Don't know who can take what you say seriously or even care. Without revealing what you do or posting in advance,us users have no proof if what you are saying is true.If you want it to remain a "secret",why don't you keep it to yourself because this is begining to sound like a system seller advertisment with a catch 22 claim.

[cj]

Users? What about me? I don't know the system either, LOL!

I can assure you I have absolutely nothing to do with Formula posting here.

[formula_2002]

Users? What about me? I don't know the system either, LOL!

I can assure you I have absolutely nothing to do with Formula posting here.


CJ, Light just doesn't know just how close I am to having to eat crow.... :bang:

And yes Light, CJ is in the dark on this.

Joe M

[hurrikane]

If Joe is saying he is beating the game I would believe him.

That is the most absurd thing I have heard come from Joe in quite some time.

I wouldn't post one play Joe. Your odds will end up being beat down and there goes your ROI.

Now, if you want a double blind test you should email me the specifics. :jump:

[Suff]

If Joe is saying he is beating the game I would believe him.

.

:


I'm sure he's posting the results accurately.

It's killing him to do so...but he's doing it. First flaw that pops up, I'm sure we'll hear about. Joe's rolling numbers......inside-outside, hard and horn numbers are all coming up Joe!

[Light]

I believe Formula,but I don't understand his point in posting. I have a system that makes 100% in the pik4's,and I have proven it in the pk4 contests the last 2 years.So what. What good would it do me if I didnt want to reveal it (which I don't) and constantly talked about it? Now you know one of the reasons I started that thread "are horseplayers insane"?.That's what this sounds like.

[JustMissed]

There is a lot of stuff you can do with CJ's numbers.

Look how many of us already use PrimePower numbers for contender selection and then maybe just add E2 & Spd to rank runners in a 7F race for example.

An easy mechanical play would be to rank (E2+Spd+CJ Performance fig). Take the top 3 and box in an exacta if all probable payoffs are over $20.

I suspect Joe is doing something similar to that but since he is using better figs than before--he is getting better results.

What cracks me up is that folk are getting mad at Joe because he won't reveal his secret "x13" system. :lol:

Best laugh I have had this week.

Go get 'em Joe.

JM :D

[Suff]

I believe Formula,but I don't understand his point in posting. I have a system that makes 100% in the pik4's,and I have proven it in the pk4 contests the last 2 years.So what. What good would it do me if I didnt want to reveal it (which I don't) and constantly talked about it? Now you know one of the reasons I started that thread "are horseplayers insane"?.That's what this sounds like.


The dynamic of Joe posting is that for years he's essentially had a running thread that the game cannot be beat, and further, no system exists that can steadily show a +ROI. So in that context the thread has meaning.

It's not redboarding as much is Joe runs things through the paces. Generally he throws everything in the barrel. The fact he finds system13 worthy of BETA testing after this Alpha test....is what makes the posts worthwhile to read.

Its not straight up red boarding. Its more of an expirement.

[JustMissed]

Suff, That was an excellant post and pretty well summed up what Joe is doing IMO.

What I think is so neat and should give the PA board members a sense of pride is that one of our hard working members has developed his figs to the point that not only can he sell them, heck, he has one of the toughest critics on the board trying to crack'em and they won't crack.

I'm not saying that the secret "x13" system won't stand on it's own using Bris figs and PrimePower, but if Joe finds that it is only profitable, or more profitable, using CJs figs, Joe will be the first to sing out.

I hope they both get filthy rich.

JM :)

[formula_2002]

I would say Suff hit the nail on the head with;

“The dynamic of Joe posting is that for years he's essentially had a running thread that the game cannot be beat, and further, no system exists that can steadily show a +ROI. So in that context the thread has meaning”.

It has been my intention to post the results regardless of the out come.
It pleases me that the results are favorable, if for no other reason then
the work CJ has put into the logic and the program to be appears to be worth his effort.

The results have a way to go to satisfy the “rigorist statistical analysis” that I hold sacred, but for now its nice to post the results.

Hurricane and Justmissed also understand the essence of the posts.

Finally, it’s very nice to have a creditable reputation with people, whom your only contact is, the internet. Your thoughts are not lost. Thanks.

[Light]

Touching that a few members care that Joe may have finally found a tool that can beat the races. Unfortunately for the rest of us who have either allready found a system to beat the races or the great majority who are still looking for one,this startling revelation of Joe's holds no value to anyone other than Joe.

[Suff]

Touching that a few members care that Joe may have finally found a tool that can beat the races. Unfortunately for the rest of us who have either allready found a system to beat the races or the great majority who are still looking for one,this startling revelation of Joe's holds no value to anyone other than Joe.

I have no thought of beating the races. None. Maybe a little, but only in the context of "I'd like to bang a supermodel" kind of way. Sure, it'd be living the dream. But It's not going to happen. #1 I don't have the where-with-all.

I'm in the business of betting my opinion, and my opinion sucks mostly, it frequently changes, and at times is unfounded. Same as in the internet world!.. :lol:

I just follow along because of the personality's in the thread. I like Formula. I always read threads when Joe and Game Theory are going at it.... But be sure I stand clear. (out matched)

But Light.. What happened to you? You used to be cool man... :D :D

You don't like Forumla? You don't like the topic? The point? or lack off?
So what man.... You been around here long enough to know that not everything is going to be your taste. Some of these software threads get 3000 looks and 162 replys and I'm nowhere to be found...I might look in once a week and take the threads tempature, But it's not for me, so I roll on out.

I picked up, or sensed about a month ago you were on a cold streak that might of been affecting your mood. I hope you hit a nice winner and the Sun comes up for you.

[JustRalph]

I have no thought of beating the races. None. Maybe a little, but only in the context of "I'd like to bang a supermodel" kind of way. Sure, it'd be living the dream. But It's not going to happen. #1 I don't have the where-with-all.

philosophically speaking...........your verbiage is classic.........I would have never gone there in a million years.........yet your thought process is crystal clear.....no doubt about your meaning at all.....you are one of a kind.........:D

[Light]

Suff

I feel that this thread is a bit self serving, disguised as some sort of public interest topic. It's not. I'ts about Joe and only Joe. I don't see why he has to continually update us on something no one can share in or even understand since he refuses to provide details. Pointless. Just give us the verdict and spare us the trial. Got nothing against Joe. Narcissism yes. Probably not intentional,but that is how it's coming accross to me.

Joe is a popular dude here,but what if a more obscure dude started claiming 40% profit using a twist on some other handicapping program and refused to divulge any details,but posted results every day like Joe. Get real. I shudder to think of the stoning he'd get. Just because Joe is "popular" doesn't exempt him for accounting for what he says.

[lsbets]

I would hardly say Joe is popular. In the past he has been regularly lambasted when he asserted that the game could not be beaten and nothing was more powerful in determining the winner than the odds. I have seen more abuse sent his way than most people who post in the horseracing sections.

I'm enjoying watching Joe discover what many of us already know - if you pick your spots and have good data that you interpret correctly you can make money at this game. He has put more tima and effort than 99% of the people I know into research on horseracing, and is probably more honest about his results than 99% of the people out there. How many other people will admit for years "I can't win at this game, but I like trying." I wish him luck, and I really don't care what system 13 is. If Joe says he is winning, than I take that as proof that even the most dedicated sceptic can win at this game.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah, if Light is saying Joe is popular, than Light is being disingenuous, OR, he isn't playing with a full deck, OR, he really doesn't pay very good attention to some of the most obvious things in life....

[PaceAdvantage]

Joe is a popular dude here,but what if a more obscure dude started claiming 40% profit using a twist on some other handicapping program and refused to divulge any details,but posted results every day like Joe. Get real. I shudder to think of the stoning he'd get.

Light, this hypothetical "obscure dude" of yours would deserve EVERY stone thrown his way.

Precisely BECAUSE Joe is who he is, and has posted what he has posted through the YEARS -- that's what makes this thread all the more attractive. Now enough with this little diversion of yours Light...allow Joe to get back to being Joe....

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/21/05)



729 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 37% profit
.

That little add on to the system?
Yesterday, 16 plays 20% profit.

(note: Although the % profit decreased over yesterday, if you do the math, you will find that there was a profit for the day.)

Joe M
PS, Next week I'll post a detail breakdown of all the plays, which include two types of win plays, two types of exacta plays and YES, that little add on system is a PLACE play.
I have my doubts about it, but for now its doing well.

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/27/05)



1083 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 13% profit


System tanked for 06/25 through 06/27.
lost about 50% of its previous profits.

Joe M

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/27/05)



1083 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 13% profit


System tanked for 06/25 through 06/27.
lost about 50% of its previous profits.

Joe M

Todays results recovered all those loses! :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

Some short term volatility!

[formula_2002]

Some short term volatility!

And during those few days I was at the Brogata trying to get a few bets in. Fortunately, I managed but 5 losing bets.

I was having too much fun and success (for me and everyone else) at the craps table. Very big weekend.

Originally Posted by formula_2002
"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/28/05)



1167 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 26% profit

[Kreed]

PA MIKE, allow me to type those wonderful words "Allow Joe to get back
to being Joe." Man, if more people just embraced that idea this world would
be greater for it. Enjoy the day.

[formula_2002]

Some short term volatility!

Here is the total dollar net for each set of 90 plays for the entire data base.
Would appreciate any comments regarding "risk" and "volatility"


X13 SYSPLAY TOTAL NET
90 -5.85
90 -14.6
90 -98.65
90 168.85
90 38.4
90 -10.7
90 194.1
90 -5.4
90 79.1
90 -106.2
90 24.45
90 67.6
90 51.35
90 43.9
90 -79.5
90 -52.05
90 -61.65
90 -44.3
90 112.4
90 18.25
90 32.25
90 -88.75
90 -68.05
90 -100.7
90 -62.45
90 -116.5
90 -39.3
90 -44.45
90 -21.95
90 48.3
90 141.25
90 -77.45
90 -39.2
90 78.7
90 -67.5
90 81
90 101.45
90 103.35
90 125.45
90 -18.45
90 -31.05
90 -6.95
90 173.05
90 95.65
90 -13.25
90 55.15
90 113.9
90 39.5
90 33
90 24.9
90 -39.25
90 10.1
90 134.1
90 36.15
90 -102.9
90 -51.05
90 199
90 -82.4
90 95.25
90 57.1
90 -47.9
90 96.05
90 -79.9
90 -114.4
90 156.7
90 -82.9
5,940.00 954.15

[mkbdoe]

I just thought that I'd ask this question in this thread instead of pissing people off by starting a new thread for this question:


CJ, should I be unzipping your updates in the variant folder?

[grahors]

MKBDOE,
Try this...
pub32.bravenet.com/forum/2704745069
You can ask all the questions you want re CJ's program.
Grahors

[headhawg]

mkbdoe,

If you installed cj's program into the default location you can just double-click the .exe file and then click unzip and it will unzip into the correct folder(s). Otherwise change the location in the section that reads "Unzip to folder:" to where you installed the program.

HH

[cj]

Here is the total dollar net for each set of 90 plays for the entire data base.
Would appreciate any comments regarding "risk" and "volatility"


What does all this mean?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Can you check the success of CJ's figures picks for the current racing since Wed. at Evangeline Downs? I have a feeling it would be good.

[formula_2002]

What does all this mean?


The table represents 66 sets of 90 plays. The dollar net return for each of the sets in shown in the right hand
column. The object is to engage in a discussion of Risk and Volatility based on the given information.

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 06/30/05)



1287 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned a 14% profit

This is starting to turn nasty.. Need a turn around.

[Kreed]

NO FIG can stand alone. There are sub-catergories of races in which CJ's
Figs (and others) do Very Well & then there are other set-ups. So what
is your system 13?

[formula_2002]

NO FIG can stand alone. There are sub-catergories of races in which CJ's
Figs (and others) do Very Well & then there are other set-ups. So what
is your system 13?

It's simple. Its just using the right figures and whatever, making the optium plays (win, exacta, dd ) and knowing what amounts to bet..

A walk in the park :jump:

[formula_2002]

Some short term volatility!

Looking at those sets of 90 plays, 50% of them were profitable. Perhaps that not too volatil.
Today was one of those days very good days.

[formula_2002]

Looking at those sets of 90 plays, 50% of them were profitable. Perhaps that not too volatil.
Today was one of those days very good days.

If the sets are increased to 450, about one 5 day week, there are but three losses in 14 weeks.
The worst week, was a $403 loss, and that was in the BASE SAMPLE.
There were 6 weeks where the gain was over $100, for an average of $200 per week

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 07/02/05)



1488 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned an 18% profit

[Light]

Form

Can you split the win and exacta ROI's for us?

[Hosshead]

Form

Can you split the win and exacta ROI's for us?DITTO - Split W% And ROI between Straight Win vs. Exacta

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 07/03/05)



1611 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned an 12% profitThe system has two parts, each complementing the other. That is, in any given race,
if one is expected to lose the other is expected to win. Obviously, you don’t bet the one which you expected to lose! :rolleyes:
Each part contains three plays, 1 win play and two exacta plays
System x13

Part “A”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE LIVE SAMPLE
WIN POOL 3% LOSS 6” LOSS
EXACTA-1 27% profit 46% profit
EXACTA-2 11% PROFIT 37% PROFIT

Part “B”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE LIVE SAMPLE
WIN POOL 7% PROFIT 11% LOSS
EXACTA-1 5% profit 15% profit
EXACTA-2 8% PROFIT 41% LOSS

[Light]

What is the difference between a base sample and a live sample?

[Suff]

What is the difference between a base sample and a live sample?


I'd imgaine its testing the betting method against previously run races vs actually betting the system into live pools.

[formula_2002]

I'd imgaine its testing the betting method against previously run races vs actually betting the system into live pools.

suff has it!

[Light]

Using the live sample on win bets,it is showing a loss of either 6% or 11%. So the overall profits are coming from the exactas?

[formula_2002]

Using the live sample on win bets,it is showing a loss of either 6% or 11%. So the overall profits are coming from the exactas?

That's correct.

[Light]

Then why dont you stop betting to win and concentrate on the exactas.

[formula_2002]

Then why dont you stop betting to win and concentrate on the exactas.

I just love the sound of a baseball bat as it cracks against my head! :rolleyes:

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 07/04/05)



1695 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned an 15% profit

[Light]

Formula:I just love the sound of a baseball bat as it cracks against my head!

Batter Up

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 07/05/05)



1752 plays (a combination of exacta and win pool plays)
returned an 14% profit

[formula_2002]

update

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 07/16/05)




The system has two parts, each complementing the other. That is, in any given race,
if one is expected to lose the other is expected to win. Obviously, you don’t bet the one which you expected to lose! :rolleyes:
Each part contains three plays, 1 win play and two exacta plays
System x13

Part “A”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(616 races) LIVE SAMPLE(288 races)
WIN POOL 3% LOSS 6% LOSS
EXACTA-1 27% profit 30% profit
EXACTA-2 11% PROFIT 31% PROFIT

Part “B”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(911 races) LIVE SAMPLE(371 plays)
WIN POOL 7% PROFIT 11% LOSS
EXACTA-1 5% profit 3% profit
EXACTA-2 8% PROFIT 50% LOSS

[Niko]

Keeping it coming Formula. I like following the test. Curious to see how someone who tries to disprove (test) systems does when he finds a winner.
It's been said the best way to test a system is to try to make it lose. If it doesn't.....ka-ching

[hurrikane]

Joe, you must be pulling your hair out by now. lol

are you betting these? what is the resective win %. might explain the swings.

[formula_2002]

Niko and Hurrikane, the exacta profits look great, but the thing that concerns me is the win pool loss

You will see that I’m reporting a 30% profit in each two of my exacta plays.
But when you calculate the ratio of actual exacta wins to expected wins, (which I have not posted),
you get a 22% loss and a 26% loss.

It is my strong opion that eventually, the exacta pool results will somewhat = the win pool results ( adjusted for the different pool take-outs)


To continue to get a 30% profit, the public has to make my exacta payoffs huge overlays, and that “ain’t gona” happen
But I’m more than willing to be proven wrong.

[formula_2002]

Joe, you must be pulling your hair out by now. lol

are you betting these? what is the resective win %. might explain the swings.

Not betting anything unless I go to track or the craps table. :)

Please explain the meaning of "resective" as it may apply here.

Thanks
Joe M

[Kreed]

I didn't want to comment here, but here goes: I'm not one of the lucky early
birds who bought CJs figs --- I'm on the waiting list --- but I've been using
his freebies (since I play NY ONLY), and well, I'm many thousands ahead.
I'm using CJs WITH another SPEED Fig + a Simple Class Fig. I think CJs
play a BIG part (they def have their limitations) --- so its up to you to find
out how they best work. I know I wouldn't be making scores if I didn't have
CJs NY figs.

[formula_2002]

I didn't want to comment here, but here goes: I'm not one of the lucky early
birds who bought CJs figs --- I'm on the waiting list --- but I've been using
his freebies (since I play NY ONLY), and well, I'm many thousands ahead.
I'm using CJs WITH another SPEED Fig + a Simple Class Fig. I think CJs
play a BIG part (they def have their limitations) --- so its up to you to find
out how they best work. I know I wouldn't be making scores if I didn't have
CJs NY figs.

Kreed, I agree, they are excelent figures and I'm glad to have them..

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 07/19/05)




Part “A”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(616 races) LIVE SAMPLE(299 races)
WIN POOL 3% LOSS 9% LOSS
EXACTA-1 27% profit 28% profit
EXACTA-2 11% PROFIT 26% PROFIT

Part “B”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(911 races) LIVE SAMPLE(394 plays)
WIN POOL 7% PROFIT 15% LOSS
EXACTA-1 5% profit 2% profit
EXACTA-2 8% PROFIT 66% LOSS

[Kreed]

YOU ARE always on Message. That's so Cool. U R an "N" of 1. derek/ kreed

[Hosshead]

Hey derek, that "Simple Class Fig" you speak of. What's that about, and who sells it?

[hurrikane]

Joe, respective win %. it was late.

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 07/30/05)


Part “A”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(616 races) LIVE SAMPLE(335 races)
WIN POOL 3% LOSS 9% LOSS
EXACTA-1 27% profit 22% profit
EXACTA-2 11% PROFIT 12% PROFIT

Part “B”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(911 races) LIVE SAMPLE(471 plays)
WIN POOL 7% PROFIT 15% LOSS
EXACTA-1 5% profit 5% profit
EXACTA-2 8% PROFIT 76% LOSS

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 08/06/05)


Part “A”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(616 races) LIVE SAMPLE(357 races)
WIN POOL 3% LOSS 11% LOSS
EXACTA-1 27% profit 20% profit
EXACTA-2 11% PROFIT 14% PROFIT

Part “B”
ITEM BASE SAMPLE(911 races) LIVE SAMPLE(507 plays)
WIN POOL 7% PROFIT 17% LOSS
EXACTA-1 5% profit 0% profit
EXACTA-2 8% PROFIT 53% LOSS

[Niko]

Looks like your results show there's still some good inefficiencies in the exotics pool. I find it interesting you can show that much profit with exactas while losing 11% on the win end? Makes it seem like it can't hold up, but so far..

[formula_2002]

Looks like your results show there's still some good inefficiencies in the exotics pool. I find it interesting you can show that much profit with exactas while losing 11% on the win end? Makes it seem like it can't hold up, but so far..

I tend to agree with you (it can't hold up).
In the case of the 20% exacta profits, the nubmber of expected exacta wins=51, while the number of actual winners = only 35.

In the case of the 14% exacta profits, the number of expected wins=43, while the number of actual winners = only 27.

This is a very crazy game (very Volatile) and most of us get fooled by what appears to be good results.

But who knows?

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 08/21/05)

The "only" profitable parts of the system continue to be the "PART A EXACTA PLAYS"

406 races
The excata-1 increase to 30% profit
The exacta-2 decreased to 9"% profit

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 08/21/05)

The "only" profitable parts of the system continue to be the "PART A EXACTA PLAYS"

406 races
The excata-1 increase to 30% profit
The exacta-2 decreased to 9"% profit

Belmont Day to 08/21/05

487 races
The excata-1 decreased to 22% profit
The exacta-2 decreased to 0"% profit

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 09/16/05)

The profitable parts of the system continue to be the "PART A EXACTA PLAYS"

542 races
The excata-1, 14% profit
The exacta-2, 5% profit

Interestingly, the number of expected wins for the "1" exacta was 43. The actual wins were 54, yielding a ratio for 1.25.
A ratio of, 1, would yield a loss equal to the exacta pool take-out.
At this moment, one would have expected a profit of 25%, but received "but" a 14% profit.


The number of expected wins for the "2" exacta was 39. The actual wins were 39. This should have produced a loss equal to the exacta pool take-out. However it returned a profit of 5%.
......................................

[Tom]

Joe!

Come towards the light.
While you are testing away, the profits are rolling in everyday.

Don't test the figs: Use them! :ThmbUp:

[formula_2002]

I'll admit it. It's gone a bit beyond testing :cool:

[Tom]

:ThmbUp:

[Niko]

You're in trouble now Formula... you know you shouldn't be betting on the horses with high take. ;) Hope the profits keep rolling for ya. Next maybe you can carry it down a spot to the tri?

[formula_2002]

You're in trouble now Formula... you know you shouldn't be betting on the horses with high take. ;) Hope the profits keep rolling for ya. Next maybe you can carry it down a spot to the tri?

I may be getting into very big trouble.

As implied by this post, the system uses CJ's figs.
Its like the potato in a good stew.

I'm finding out that the stew can stand on its own without the potato (it's still very tastey with the potato)

An 800+ race sample returned 114% profit, with 21% winning races.

Tried it yesterday and won 2 of 7 races for a 50% profit.

[formula_2002]

"live plays"; (Belmont Day to 09/16/05)

The profitable parts of the system continue to be the "PART A EXACTA PLAYS"

682 races
The excata-1, 6% profit
The exacta-2, 13% profit

A net $ gain over the last report.
If I have not mentioned it before, these are "Black Box" plays.

It certainly lends itself to program betting.

[keenang]

FORMULA
I MAY HAVE MISSED IT,COULF YOU EXPLAIN THE EXACTAS A&B. IF IT IS IN A POST MAYBE YOU CAN TELL ME WHERE TO FIND IT.

THANKS AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORKS
GENE

[formula_2002]

I MAY HAVE MISSED IT,COULF YOU EXPLAIN THE EXACTAS A&B. IF IT IS IN A POST MAYBE YOU CAN TELL ME WHERE TO FIND IT.

THANKS AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORKS
GENE[/QUOTE]

The A and B exacta's are plays based on my "x13" system ;) .


I’m currently testing the “x13” “without using CJ”s or any other figures”
I have an entirely new have base of over 100,000 hosrse to use for testing.

In the current data base, for the time period of 6/11/05 to date,
There is a 29% profit in 1309 plays.

From 01/01/05 to date, there is a 27% profit in 2360 plays.

[midnight]

Ok, I'm lost here. Your betting system shows a 29% profit (a 1.29 ROI) without using any figures. Does it use any kind of handicapping?

[andicap]

OK,
I'm going to take a wild guess here.
Joe tested CJ's figures with his DB (and going-forward, not just backfitting) and came away with a profit using the x13 method betting exactas a certain way.
Obviously he's going to keep it a secret -- or sell it to the world for $1000 apiece.

What he might be doing now is testing the same x13 method on a "control" group, -- using CJ's figures --to see the difference between CJ's figures and other methods.

Am I close, Joe?

[formula_2002]

OK,
I'm going to take a wild guess here.
Joe tested CJ's figures with his DB (and going-forward, not just backfitting) and came away with a profit using the x13 method betting exactas a certain way.
Obviously he's going to keep it a secret -- or sell it to the world for $1000 apiece.

What he might be doing now is testing the same x13 method on a "control" group, -- using CJ's figures --to see the difference between CJ's figures and other methods.

Am I close, Joe?

Yep, that's it Andy. I tested it against the Bris_Power fig and CJ's fig, and then I tested it without any fig..

And holy cow..it works without the figs.
I thought it was producing profits when reversing the exacta, but I had made an error.

I'm testing the system against all those ALW files I have.
Will post the results of the testing.

Midnight, the handicapping is very simple. Tom Ainslie 101.

[John]

When you test all of these things with cj figures I don't see how that will enhance Pacefigures. I like the figures as a stand alone with a little handicapping.Trainer,Jockey etc.