Lost In The Fog/Ruffian

[KingChas]

Let me start by saying I am not comparing these two in the same sentence as far as racing ability,distance,lifetime records...Etc.I am comparing them on the will to stay ahead of their competition.I see LITF as the sprint version of Ruffian.He has only been headed twice in his short career not very long and not by much.I'm afraid he is going to hit the wall soon 8F?If he doesn't learn to harness his great natural speed and will to stay ahead every step of the way it could lead to his downfall.Taking nothing away from his Belmont Day performances he looked very tired after the line and coming back to the winners circle.Of course the 1st and 2nd furlongs of 22's attributed to that.If he learns to harness his natural ability look out.This horse has a very strong will to win.Very interested to see when he tries going longer. ;)

[RXB]

Lost Soldier is generally a sire whose progeny like 8f-9f on the turf. Dr. Carter, the damsire, is usually okay up to a mile, not much more.

From that, plus watching him run, I think he might get a mile, but that would probably be the limit. I feel that the connections are doing the right thing by keeping him in sprint races. If all goes well and he's healthy come November, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Cigar Mile. (To this day, I always type 'NYRA Mile' and then have to go back and change it.)

[KingChas]

[KingChas]Of course the 1st and 2nd furlongs of 22's attributed to that.

Typo meant 1st and 2nd Qtrs :blush:

RXB- intersesting is this horse bred more for the turf than dirt?

[RXB]

I believe that he would be a very effective turf sprinter, but you never know until they try.

Regarding the dam, I don't know which sires she's been sent to previously, but that Caro female line has been very effective when bred to a sire from the Mr. Prospector line-- especially Unbridled, who has (unfortunately) joined The Choir Invisible. Given LITF's performance, I won't be surprised if the dam's owners cough up the big money and sent her to a big name sire from the Prospector line. Of course, Lost Soldier is by Danzig, so I'd expect that they will also breed her to a big name stud from the Northern Dancer line, too.

[cj]

I don't understand this learn to harness his speed thing. Though the Riva Ridge may prove the exception, this horse has run a faster speed figure than pace figure for EVERY race in his life. I have no doubt he can easily get at least a mile, and probably farther.

[classhandicapper]

I thought LITF ran a terrific race repulsing 3 different challenges. I think 8F will be within his range and also think the Cigar Mile would be a great long term target. One thing I will note is that IMO Belmont was favoring speed for several days leading up to and including Saturday. I believe that helped LITF.

[KingChas]

I don't understand this learn to harness his speed thing. .
CJ,
I should clarify what I meant by that.When I said he has a fierce will I meant he seems like a horse that doesn't appreciate being headed by any horse.I'm afraid as(if) his races get longer he will be targeted early by horses that have nothing to do but set this guy up.ala-rabbits-of course this is where a good Jock comes in also.But as Prado said he's very hard to hold back.The very tired sprouter Going Wild did give him a little go for awhile.He will meet faster early speed horses than him eventually,I would guess?

[chickenhead]

Breaking from the 2 hole they planned on sending him from the get go, they weren't too worried about Going Wild. Foggy isn't all that speedy out of the gate, if he sticks with sprints as he faces better I think you'll see him laying off a bit early. It's not his first fraction that makes him tough.

If he does have a problem letting horses run in front of him, which I don't think he does, all the more reason to stretch him out.

[The Judge]

I'm in San Francisco and the papers ran an article on LITF's owner who is a older gentleman who still works in real estate I think. From what I gather he is not interested in running LITF in anything other then sprints.

[RXB]

I don't understand this learn to harness his speed thing. Though the Riva Ridge may prove the exception, this horse has run a faster speed figure than pace figure for EVERY race in his life. I have no doubt he can easily get at least a mile, and probably farther.

It's not that difficult for a quality sprinter to run speed figures that are superior to his pace figures, especially when running against opposition that is not of the same calibre. But that doesn't mean that the horse has the stamina required to run in middle distance races.

Also, 3YO's that are fast on-the-pace sprinters tend to have their best success in routes early in their careers, when the off-pace animals are still maturing and learning their trades.

I believe that a mile is pretty much the outer limit for this horse.

[Valuist]

I consider the faster speed figures than pace figures to be a definite negative. What's going to happen when he goes head to head with a truly fast horse? Egg Head is a nice sprinter but he isn't a lead at all cost type. When LITF won the Bay Shore, the pace at the same distance the same day was much slower than what they ran in the Carter (final time was also slower). There's a few older horses who will make him work harder than he's ever had to.

[KingChas]

If he does have a problem letting horses run in front of him, which I don't think he does, all the more reason to stretch him out.

Chick, The reason I feel he has this trait,which by the way is a Champion horses trait,is that the two times in his career he was not leading(2nd) he came out of post 9 & 10 ,so I definately feel LITF wanted that lead.This horse has run consistant 44's and change.

[chickenhead]

well, I think everyone is right here....he has wanted the lead in all of his races thus far, and they have been easy to get. When he runs against a serious frontrunner, we will have to see what happens.

[how cliche]

Lost In The Fog, while naturally pretty quick, doesn't need the lead, imo. Watch The Swale at Gulfstream Park. He relaxed nicely in 2nd until midway on the turn. From there he easily took command and widened through the stretch to win by 5. I think perhaps Gilchrist is trying to immitate what B. Frankel did with Squirtle Squirt prior to his BC Sprint win. That being to run him in a lot of 7f sprints so he can be legged up for the big day and also so he can lay off the always projected white hot tempo. 7f on often equates to 6f tracking. Of course this is all speculation on my part.


What's really nice is we in NoCal finally have a horse who can perform well on a national stage. 7 for 7 with wins over 5 different tracks.

[keilan]

It's not that difficult for a quality sprinter to run speed figures that are superior to his pace figures, especially when running against opposition that is not of the same calibre.

I believe that a mile is pretty much the outer limit for this horse.


Generally, I agree with much of what you write but this post of yours is somewhat to encompassing and stated in too broad of terms imo.

Foggy runs quick early and blows most of his competition away long before the wire. Generally, Baze has this guy wrapped up late. If you agree with this observation then you would agree that it's extremely difficult to produce higher speed numbers then pace under the above scenario. From what I have seen thus far he will run further than a mile and I have previously stated that he would surprise most players when / if he tries grass.

Lets hope he stays healthy cause he's very very good.

[RXB]

I don't think that my post is broad or overencompassing. I'm talking about this horse specifically as much as any generic pattern.

Routes are my thing, and I have little reason to believe that LITF is going to want anything beyond a mile against Grade 1 or Grade 2 competition. If I'm wrong, then so be it, but I'm pretty good at evaluating this kind of horse.

[keilan]

. If I'm wrong, then so be it, but I'm pretty good at evaluating this kind of horse.


Do you care to address the pace vs speed figures comment?

You may be good at evaluting this kind of horse, but in all fairness this type of horse doesn't come along everyday. I also make money on my opinion of what horses can and cannot do, but so what.

[RXB]

Sure. How was his pace figure vs. speed figure comparison in his first Grade 2 race? Did he give you the impression that he wanted to run longer?

[RXB]

Okay, that was a rhetorical question, plus I thought you'd have the answer right at your fingertips.

I have his speed figure just slightly superior to his pace figure in the Swale (his first Grade 2 effort); in the Riva Ridge, I have his speed figure slightly below his pace figure.

I know you love %E. In the Swale, it was 52.51%; in the Riva Ridge, it increased to 52.65%. No sign there of wanting a significant stretchout against quality company. Also, his winning margin declined from 4 3/4 lengths to 1 1/4 lengths.

I've followed NoCal racing for the last 12 years and Greg Gilchrist is a sharp trainer who consistently has a high win rate and has trained some solid horses. If he's keeping the horse in sprints, it's probably because he knows the horse is limited in its distance capacity.

Plus, Gilchrist's horses tend to do their best running at a relatively young age. Lost In The Fog's figures indicate a horse that will probably follow that pattern-- quick to reach peak form, and not a lot of improvement as time goes along.

[keilan]

All somewhat valid points but not the entire picture. Energy numbers themselves are meaningless unless one considers how they were earned. As you well know having an energy number increase from 52.51% to 52.65% is useless information if no other consideration is given. Also the lengths he wins by could also be considered irrelevant. With regard to your 3rd paragraph any conclusions based solely on those measurements are certain to be flawed.

For instance the Swale (52.43%) was considerably higher %E followed by the Bayshore (51.31%) at the same distance. Does this suggest that he ran a better race in the Bayshore or that it showed that he might be able to stretch out? Quite the contrary in fact the Swale was the more impressive performance.

Gilchrist is someone that I consider to be a better sprint trainer than a distance trainer; he has often sent his horses north of the border. Here’s the rub on whether this horse can route, we have a trainer that clearly understands that you can’t ask a horse to flip flop between sprints and routes and the connections have decided to run sprints. Taking a chance at preparing Foggy for routes is a huge gamble and leaves them open for criticism if the experiment fails. The sure bet is to run sprints and enjoy the outcome. Clearly this is a good business decision.

I respect their decision but all along I have said that he will surprise many players if he routes or runs on grass. Unfortunately he might have to leave Gilchrist’s barn to have the success I think he would have

If Foggy ran against almost any of the horses that ran in the Triple Crown series he would have faired very well going 9f, 10f, 12f, 20f, he is questionably better than any other 3yo at this stage of their development imo.

If Foggy follows the same pattern as other horses trained by Gilchrist perhaps that says more about the trainer than the horse.

QUESTION > How was his pace figure vs. speed figure comparison in his first Grade 2 race? Did he give you the impression that he wanted to run longer?

ANSWER > If your referring to the Swale then my answer would be yes

And yeah I do have that info at my fingertips I just was caught up with work.

We could discuss this to death but it’s futile if the connections keep him as a sprinter, thanks for sharing your opinion, it gives me insight into your thought process.

What part of the country you from?

[toetoe]

I noticed that discrepancy between the Carter and LITF's race. Still happy for the owner, and he beat my key, Egg Head, fair and square. Oh yeah, forgot to whine that Judy Soda's d-q cost me a pick three. I never found out whether it was the usual overreaction, or just totally unfounded.

[OTM Al]

That DQ was legit. Judy was driving the second place horse out and banged into her a couple times.

[Valuist]

Toetoe-

I felt it was warranted. The showed it numerous times on TVG and there's no way Judy Soda could've stayed up.

[toetoe]

D'oh!

[Suff]

I thought Judy Soda shoulda stayed up. I predict she would have, if it was a NW1X on a Thursday afternoon. That was another area I thought was sub-par Belmont day. They inquired twice? or 3? times. Both were long looks. I felt the stewards were making themsleves to much a part of the show.

Like a Good Umpire, they are best apprecaitted when they are invisible. The bumping was minor, it was deep stretch, and it was similiar to NBA bumping in the paint. One day it is a foul, the next day it is not. I don't want to say it was rough housing....but it was competing for the win. Strategy was 3rd at 8/5.. That was my Money horse. I only had a saver to Judy Soda... It was a double whammy... Strategy runs out at 8/5 and my saver gets DQ'd...

I lived with the decision, but it could have gone either way in my view.

[depalma13]

Don Six will run him into the ground. They may both get beat at the wire, but LitF won't be the one passing DS.