Greetings

[mkbdoe]

Just wanted to introduce myself, as this is my first day as a member to the forums. I have, however, been reading these threads for a about a week or so, and since I am very new to handicapping, I have been able to learn something new everyday from you guys so thanks....

Anyways, I just want to tell you guys where I'm at, and maybe seek some Jedi wisdom from you...

My handicapping started about 4 months ago, and my first step was to practice by doing hypothetical bets while reading up on handicapping...So long story short, I've read Ainslie, two Beyer books, Brohamer, and Davidowitz, and was doing just so-so on my hypo bets (not suprising to you guys I'm sure), and after reading these author's opinions that computer software is a money loser, I was skeptical shelling out cash for anything.

Anyways, a few days ago I sacked up and bought CJ's Program, and I am on the Equisim trial right now, and I had a great saturday and sunday with those (more so CJs than Equisim)

Before I lose those of you who haven't stopped reading this at this point, I have a question...Is there a realiable Track Speed & Pace Par database or software out there that you guys can recommend...I've started putting in figures for Monmouth but, it is now to the point where I might be willing to pay for these services if there isn't a free par spreadsheet out there somewhere...

Anyways, thanks on advance for any insight, and it's good to know you guys

MQ

[kenwoodallpromos]

You passed me by 3 months, 3 weeks, and 6 days ago whoever you are. Let me know when you write your first book!LOL! :D

[midnight]

HTR adjusts its speed and pace figures for track to track and day to day differences.

[cj]

HTR adjusts its speed and pace figures for track to track and day to day differences.

I would hope so, don't all figure makers?

MQ,

What exactly are you looking for, maybe an example could help?

[andicap]

OK, some basic questins first so we can see where your head is at

1. What circuit(s) do you play?
2. Do you like to play a number of circuits at once or concentrate on one track at a time?
3. Are you more comfortable betting lower-priced horses and getting a higher win% or taking longshots and the big payoffs? (Higher risk/higher reward)
4. What books have you read on handicapping?
5. How much time a day/week do you have to devote to the hobby? What's your lifestyle situation? Married? Kids? Retired?
6. How comfortable are you using pace/speed figures. it took me a while to get completely comfortable using them -at first I was completely lost when I used some Quirin style figs. (I had been a speed/trip/trainer handicapper before switching the velocity/pace/ with other factors contributing)

7. I would warn against using a software -- or paying a lot of money for software or the downloads -- until you are comfortable using pace figures in tandem with final time or velocity. There are plenty of inexpensive software or figs (CJ'sfor example) you can study before jumping into the deep end.

Too many novices, IMHO, jump right in and get disillusioned when they don't win or it looks too difficult.

8. What are your initial thoughts onthis game? Are you discouraged? Having fun? Are you looking for some ways to have some down and dirty fun (while betting a limited amount, but learning a lot as you go) when you don't have time to do full-dress handicapping?

9. Are you comfortable with computers and databases?

10. Are you statistically oriented ?

11. Are you more art or science in picking horses.That is, some people need to have a METHOD -- not a system, but a consistent way of picking contenders and then choices that is more scientific in nature. Either spot plays from a database or something that has firm guidelines (NEVER "RULES!") .

Or are you more right-brain oriented and can free-lance a bit, looking over informationand picking your top 3 or so using your handicapping creativity to find stuff within the past performances that others miss?

Are you visually oriented? Can you look at horses in a paddock and see which runs are ready to run today? Can you look at the replay of a race and determine which horses had the better trips and which ones the worst?

There are no right or wrong answers here. But how you respond will define yourself as a handicapper and help you decide which software to buy and which supplementary materials you might need.
For example, if you very talented in identifying whether horses are on the muscle in the paddoc and the post parade I'd recommend Joe Takich's videotape about paddock examination.

[mkbdoe]

I would hope so, don't all figure makers?

MQ,

What exactly are you looking for, maybe an example could help?

CJ, I think you answered my question for what I was looking for....

Andicap, let me answer your questions

1. Right now I am playing Monmouth, and since it was a visit to Santa Anita last winter that sparked my interest, I will be playing SA in the winter, as well as Del Mar, since I will be going out there this summer.
2. Right now, I feel comfortable with one circuit at a time
3. Long-shots, big payoffs
4. Ainslie's "Complete Guide", "Beyer on Speed", Beyer's "The Winning Horseplayer", "Speed to Spare" by Cardello, Davidowitz's "Betting Thoroughbreds", Brohamer's "Modern Pace Handicapping", and one is on the way about Condition Handicapping (forget the author)
5.I can handicap at the most, 3 times a week...I'm 28 with a wife and two kids...I own a car dealership, so I can actually watch races in my office as well, but I keep that very limited out of principle...
6. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would probably rate myself a 6-7 on using Pace figures...
7. The only software I currently own right now is CJ's
8. I love it, and since my baseball team blows right now (SF Giants), horses have pretty much consumed my leisure time...
9. I am very skilled with computers and software, but I am very picky when it comes to user interface...IMHO, you could have a great piece of software, but if it sucks to use, I will normally pass it up...
10. I love stats of any kind...Whether it be with Texas Hold Em, Fantasy baseball/Football...I can spend hours looking into stats
11. I would have to say that I need a method in picking my contenders, so I guess you could lable me as science oriented...

To be honest on your visual question, is I try, but I really don't feel at this stage of the game I have any idea what I am looking at...


I hope this helps

[andicap]

Very interesting, intelligent responses which I believe bode well for your future. You are level-headed, understand the work involved in becoming a consistent winner and I think your approach is a good one. HTR has some excellent tools -- while not exactly what you specified -- are unique. You can get a free trial over a weekend during whicy you can download about 40 days worth of PPs to test drive.
It's $120 a month for unlimited downloads and if you curious, just email me. If you're just playing one track it may not be for you due to the expense.

I'm just a user have nothing to do with the company but the guy who runs it, Ken Massa, is as honest and helpful as can be.


Monmouth?
Do you live in mid-Jersey?

[Bobby]

I've always been interested in HTR but if I remember correctly you HAVE to join up for the month. So you can't pay by the card? Is that correct? I can't download a single file from ITS or HDW or whatever it is for tracks I play on the days I want them. That's a con scam.

[garyoz]

I've always been interested in HTR but if I remember correctly you HAVE to join up for the month. So you can't pay by the card? Is that correct? I can't download a single file from ITS or HDW or whatever it is for tracks I play on the days I want them. That's a con scam.

How is that a "con scam?" It is a condition of the license agreement. There is no bait and switch. If you don't want to pay for the monthly data don't use the software. What you see is what you get. There are plenty of other alternatives available if you can't afford the monthly fee. I'd be careful of accusing people of a con scam.

[Tom]

I pay $119 a month for the data files for every track everyday. I get a very powerfull handicapping program for free, and I get free updates several times a year. I get a very good newsletter, free, every month. I get several data export files that allow me to create a huge database - free. I get free track profiles, charts.

Now, as long as I make $120 a month betting, I am ahead of the game.
I assure, you, and am a tad bit better than a $1 profit a month.
I am flying to Las Vega for thier annual seminar, just becasue I am so excited about the new exports and new tools Ken is giving us...Free. Do I sound like I am being scammed?

[headhawg]

Now, as long as I make $120 a month betting, I am ahead of the game. I assure, you, and am a tad bit better than a $1 profit a month.
I am flying to Las Vega for thier annual seminar, just becasue I am so excited about the new exports and new tools Ken is giving us...Free. Do I sound like I am being scammed?
No, but your avatar always looks like he is.... :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Bobby's a little slow....not as slow as Kreed, but you'll have to excuse him nonetheless.....;)

[Bobby]

yea, yea


This is an annuity, nothing more. Why not do it like all the others - BRIS, TSn, or ITS? Why not say hey you can buy by the card just like all the other vendors do, it might cost you a little more but you can at least do it. But HTR/HDW says no WE'RE GONNA LOSE MONEY BECAUSE OF THIS. YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR THE WHOLE MONTH, PAY for timbuckto county fair and aprahoe and pimilico and so forth - tracks I wouldn't play in a lifetime.

Again, this is their annuity. They lose $ the other way. Tom might go to just downloading 3 tracks.

I play 2 tracks at most and only play 3 times a week. Why won't HTR let me pay them $30 a month for my track. That's reasonable. I don't care about Timbuckto County Fair just like you don't. I get scammed b/c Im a small-timer that's being relegated to Neurax.

Anyway, I would like to try it, but not for $120 a month.

Might as well be Murray Kram

[Bobby]

No, I take that Murry Kram part back.

[lsbets]

Bobby, you are correct that the monthly downloads is how the software vendors make money (and they don't really make a lot of money off them). How about that? They make a product and actually want to get paid for what they do. If you don't want to pay for the downloads, than the product is not meant for you. I think it is fair to say that products like HTR (I don't use HTR, so I have no stake in defending the product) and HSH are meant for either the very serious hobbyist or the professional. You don't fit in that category, that's fine. But because the product was not designed for someone like you does not mean that anyone is getting conned. To me, the monthly fee that I pay for data is nothing compared to the value that I get out of the product I use. If I didn't find value in the product I would move on to something else, but I think it is safe to say no one is getting conned.

[Bobby]

They don't make AS MUCH $ on the pay as you go plan.

Hell, Drf has one of those quarterly plans - 60 cards for what $120.
Why can't HDW?

All they do is buy the data from equibase, organize it (I think parse is the word in computa lingo :D ), and create a file. How can you lose $ on that? Sell it for more than you purchased it and the time you put into it. If they're losing $ then they got too many folks on the payroll.

Of course, they deserve a return on investment. But I mean you got 200 subscribers @ $120 a month = $24,000. They pay HDW what 50%. That's $12,000 to both parties. That's good $. I know there are other costs, but this is gross. Still good $

So . . . gimme a break.

This is an annuity.

[lsbets]

Then use DRF - the HDW products are not designed for someone like you. Don't begrudge the people who use their service, use something that suits your needs. They do not choose to service people in your corner of the market, its called finding a niche, that is one of the ways of running a succeseful business. They have a very specific segment of the market that they service. You're not in that segment of the market, so find someone like DRF who targets your market segment and use them.

[Bobby]

I don't begrudge anyone.

Im for openness. You know me. I don't like country club data files and info providers.

I've used a lot of software. I bet I own $3000 worth of horse racing software.

And I regret about $2750 of it.

[MooseDog]

"Bobby" said:

Of course, they deserve a return on investment. But I mean you got 200 subscribers @ $120 a month = $24,000. They pay HDW what 50%. That's $12,000 to both parties. That's good $. I know there are other costs, but this is gross. Still good $

I think your math is seriously flawed here. Do you know for a fact that HTR has 200 active subscribers and that the money is split 50/50?

I have it on good authority that most of the "partner" vendors at HDW have far less subscribers and the split is vastly in favor of HDW. I think if you knew the real numbers you'd see that the software vendors are not getting rich, and HDW, with staff, data costs, and overhead aren't exactly living the high life either...

$100-$130 a month for unlimited data is a bargain.

[Bobby]

I'm sure there are cost I don't know about. I'm talking gross.

However, even at 100 subscribers @ $120 = $12,000

Say the split is 75% to HDW. That's $9000 to HDW and $3000 to developer.

That's good $.

I'm not saying there millionaries. Far from it.

Im saying why not open it up like the big boys do at BRIS and TSN?

In the end, they might do more business and make more $. That seems to be BRIS, TSN, ITS, and DRF's reasoning, to have pay as go plans

[Donnie]

Value in product is where I draw the distinction. I wouldn't give you a dime for some of the other products out there. If you knew what Cramer does to arrive at his speed figures that go into HTR, you would be surprised. And the research Ken puts behind his new ideas and updates is second to none. I would wager that the reason most data providers do the per/card sell is to pick up the little guys. Great. But if that product is inferior, no matter what you pay, it's not worth the money. If you can make it work for you, then the value is increased in your eyes. I make HTR work for me. I play maybe 9 or 10 times a month. I have never felt that HTR is a con. If you met the man behind it, you would definitely feel different. And for HDW and their partners to make a buck....well it is a business you know. Some people just like charities.

[azmike]

I have known the principals behind HDW before there was a HDW service. They work very hard, have been very innovative and deserve, IMHO, all the $ they can accumulate. They stayed with it through some very, very lean times and I, for one, think their products are fairly priced and hope they make buckets of dough.

[acorn54]

i think bobby needs a reality check
if you think hdw fees are high try getting a subscription to stock or commodity futures data services for the price hdw charges for htr.
acorn

[Tom]

You get such great deals from DRF, TSN. BRIS, ITS, the what do you care what HDW does? If it is the same data, why do you want to bother with HDW
products?

The thing to remeber here is that the people actually pay for it aren't complaining about it - only YOU are. Frankly, I, too hope Ron Tiller and Ken Masa are rolling in the dough. I hope Ken is lighting Cuban cigars with hundred dollar bills. I hope Ron is making loans to the royal family so they can send Charles to college. Because the more these guys make, the better service I get, and right now, their service is second to none. Nadda.

[timtam]

It seems you hit a touchy subject. WOW !

[mkbdoe]

Well, my intentions of this thread weren't to start an arguement, but I really do appreciate everyone's advice...


MQ

[Bobby]

The thing to remeber here is that the people actually pay for it aren't complaining about it - only YOU are.

No, I can asssure you that there are many others who feel the same way as I do, who would like to try HTR, but can't b/c of its exclusivity.
Even HSH allows for ITS.

It just makes absolutely NO SENSE to me that HDW is still doing this archaic monthly download stuff.

Every other data provider allows for monthly subscriptions like HDW and for pay as you go or meet specific downloads. I don't understand why HDW can't. Can someone explain? Maybe from HDW.

[joeyspicks]

Bobby!

Man.....its all perspective. Look,....I used to go to the track three times a week
(Fri, Sat, Sun). I live south of Boston so I'd take the train. Each day by the time I was sitting down at my seat, paid for the DRF, Program, Seat, and cup of coffee I had spent $20 (including train ride). Now three times a week x 4 weeks= $240/month just to break even. And sometimes I had to buy TWO drf forms because of the funky way they put the tracks in each edition( now THATS a con-scam:jump: ). Now you are telling me you can download ALL YOU WANT of some of the BEST DATA possible for a month for a MERE $119.00 !!!!

Damn good deal if you ask me!!
No train ride.
My own coffee.
No guy next to me mumbling about the "den of thieves"

AND I SAVE $121.OO PER MONTH !! YIKES

Now I do MISS the track and the atmosphere and the assortment of "friends" I have met there. The guy who thinks I must be the greatest handicapper in the world because he came up to me one day asking "who I liked" in the 5th at Belmont and I look up at him from my form (ticked off about something that happened earlier) and mumbled something like..." yeah the 5 horse has a real chance to beat the favorite".....and damned if he didnt win and pay $20+ and he came over grinning at me like we had some sort of secret together. (of course I didnt actually bet the freeking horse:rolleyes: ....but he did!!).

But its easier and easier to stay in front of the computer. Its kinda sad really that track operators are not the sharpest business people. I mean shouldnt they be doing SOMETHING to put people in the seats (promotions etc ?/)

Anyway $120 or so for a month of downloads ( great data....as much as you want) is in reality a terrific deal!

(Now I just gotta learn to effectively use one of these programs:lol: )

[JustMissed]

Value in product is where I draw the distinction. I wouldn't give you a dime for some of the other products out there. If you knew what Cramer does to arrive at his speed figures that go into HTR, you would be surprised. And the research Ken puts behind his new ideas and updates is second to none. I would wager that the reason most data providers do the per/card sell is to pick up the little guys. Great. But if that product is inferior, no matter what you pay, it's not worth the money. If you can make it work for you, then the value is increased in your eyes. I make HTR work for me. I play maybe 9 or 10 times a month. I have never felt that HTR is a con. If you met the man behind it, you would definitely feel different. And for HDW and their partners to make a buck....well it is a business you know. Some people just like charities.

Donnie, Why do you play so few times a month?

If you are somehow connected to HTR and have access to Ken Massas, why aren't you playing several tracks a day?

Am I missing something?



JM

[lsbets]

Bobby - if you are new to HSH you have only one option - HDW. ANd no one complains about that.

[Bobby]

yea, I got HSH. Had it since my college days, 00-01. I like it. I think its a good program. I don't know why it gets such a bad rap. It used to use ITS and then they went with HDW but you could still use ITS. That's what I did - use ITS. Although I think its a quality program, I just Couldn't keep up with all the new stuff Dave and them do over there. I am a novice. I only know the lingo. So its kinda on the backburner.