Maiden Races

[so.cal.fan]

Does anyone know the percentage of maidens who NEVER win a race?

[BillW]

100% (can't fool me with those trick questions:cool: )

Bill

[so.cal.fan]

Okay, Bill, I'll rephrase the question.
Does anyone know how many horses who RUN in maiden races NEVER go on to win a race?
I read the answer somewhere years ago, but forgot.
Just wonder what it is today.
Anyone know?

[BillW]

Sorry, couldn't resist.

I found myself wondering the same thing a few months ago while watching full field after full field of maiden claimers at HOU. Here (in Tx) I think 5YO is the max for a non-winner so they drop out quicker than in some other jurisdictions. It would also be interesting to know what pct. t'bred foals never make it to the track at all. I would imagine those 2 groups combine for a rather large percentage.

Bill

[karlskorner]

I remember reading sometime back in the DRF that 25% of them foaled never make it to the track and another 25-35% never win a race. Out of the 70-80K foaled each year it still leaves a few to wager on.

Karl

[so.cal.fan]

I know a winning player who bets only maiden races.
His theory is that most horses in the races have no chance to win, unlike races for winners.
He gave me the mathematical reasons why, but I can't remember, because I didn't really understand it. (math impaired you know- LOL)
Anyway, even though I didn't understand the details, the concept made sense to me.

[GR1@HTR]

I thought it was something more like 80% to 90% of maidens never get a win. If you think about it, only 1 maiden out of 10 starters(avg size mdn field) will get the win. The bad ones keep on losing and stay in the maiden ranks. New maidens come along and beat the up on the old maidens.

[Tom]

Zippy Chippy!
(Does it count if you beat a baseball player???)

[tanda]

I have heard from numerous sources that only about 50% of thoroughbreds foaled ever win a race.

Karl's numbers add up to the same thing. 25% never make it to the track, another 25% do but never win.

If his are accurate, then 25%/75% of those who make it to the track never win. So, maybe 33%.

[Aussieplayer]

Here in Oz, it is something like 90% of horses never make it to one win (or is it 80%?). Also, only something like 1% of horses who have ever raced make it to 6 wins.

Cheers
AP

[rrbauer]

From so.cal.fan

I know a winning player who bets only maiden races.

Comment:
Some of the greatest mismatches that I've ever seen occur in maiden races. A lot of players shy away from Maidens because of limited PP data. I understand that. If you can't handicap the race unless you have lot's of PP data, then most Mdn races are not for you.

I feast on Mdn races. One of the reasons that I went there is that they are not easy from a conventional handicapping perspective. Immediately, if you have done any homework, you have an edge!

I do trainer analysis and workout analysis that I'm able to combine with past race analysis (when available), to identify "contenders". With 1st timers, the board helps too.

Do your homework. Maidens = Profit!

[superfecta]

I agree with the 80% percent never win a race.I saw the stat in a story awhile back.Don't remember the context of the stat,whether that means all horses foaled for racing or those who actually start in a race.Either way it amazed me.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by rrbauer
Do your homework. Maidens = Profit!

You got that right. Tonight at Hastings. Two maiden races for 3 year olds - Race 3 winner paid $66.10, Race 8 $22.70. Race 3 was a Maiden $5000. Race 8 Maiden $20000. What was in common with the two winners? They were the only ones whose last race was a Straight Maiden Special Weight. I somehow missed the $66.00 winner! Doh!

AD

[so.cal.fan]

Okay, math guys, I have a question.
Wouldn't there be an advantage to betting maiden races where
so many horses do not have any chance to win, compared to races for winners?
The people I know who bet these races successfully, are in the paddock live, watching every horse. They are good at it, I have seen them throw out favorites, because of poor confirmation, etc.
I am convinced they have a huge edge.

[GR1@HTR]

I'm no math dude, but if you break down the win% of favorites by class...Mdn Special weights favorites win more than any other class level. Plus in maiden races, 1/2 of the field is composed of born again losers that have no chance. They are just repeat, repeat losers...

[GameTheory]

Yes,

I have come to love maiden races. They are as close to being easy as anything in this game can be once you figure them out. The less information the better I like it. It takes me 1/5 of the time to handicap the maidens and I hit higher -- I love 'em.

[Que]

I found this an interesting thread and decided to query my database. Assuming I programmed my query correctly, the following are the results:

- In 1998, 32,479 different horses started in either a Maiden or a Maiden Claiming race. Since then, these same horses have the following number of wins (as of 8 May 02):


0 wins 11,010 33.9%
1 win 21,469 66.1%

2 wins 14,702 45.2%
3 wins 10,524 32.4%
4 wins 7,378 22.7%
5 wins 5,195 16.0%

6 wins 3,614 11.1%
7 wins 2,533 7.8%
8 wins 1,721 5.3%
9 wins 1,170 3.6%
10 wins 744 2.2%

11 wins 474 1.4%
12 wins 289 0.9%
13 wins 176 0.5%
14 wins 105 0.3%
15 wins 68 0.2%

16 wins 42 0.013%
17 wins 28 0.009%
18 wins 17 0.005%
19 wins 15 0.005%
20 wins 5 0.002%

21 wins 3 0.001%
22 wins 1 0.0003%
23 wins 1 0.0003%


The following horses had 20 or more wins:

SURE SHOT BISCUIT... 23 wins (41 starts)
VALID LEADER... 21 wins
SHOT OF GOLD... 21 wins
YULLA YULLA... 20 wins
VALADORA... 20 wins

Que.

[GameTheory]

I would love to see a query on maiden races that examined number of starts for winners, broken down by age category.


Something like:

# of maiden winners that at the time they won:

-- had no previous starts
-- had 1 previous start
-- had 2 previous starts
-- had 3 previous starts
-- had 4 previous starts
-- had 5 previous starts
-- had more than 5 previous starts

Broken down by the age at which they won, and optionally by race type (claiming, maiden special weight).

I heavily favor low number of starts, but I'd like to see the actual stats.

Anybody?

[so.cal.fan]

Que:
That is very interesting. Thank you for the effort.

[Aussieplayer]

A relatively unconsidered factor here is a horse's no. of starts. Time after time I have seen a handicapping method improved by using this figure. This was recently confirmed to me that a HK team finds the same.

Might pay to take a look!

Cheers
AP

[John]

Most of the Maidens I bet on go off at less odds than the morning line. Most players run to the window. Mitchael, says bet to place............