Alex vs Smarty

[OTM Al]

I've already seen some rumbling about how Nick Zito could upset in the Belmont this year, which to me sounds pretty silly. Smarty is always going to be one of my favorites and I've been all for Alex for a long time now as well, but for me, that's about where the similarities end. Here is my reasoning

1. Smarty was an on the pace type horse. This is how he was engaged in the three separate duals that evenually wore him down at the end. Alex is a stalker. He will lay off the quick fractions and will not be sucked into the kind of running that Smarty was last year. That lesson was already learned in the Derby.

2. Jeremy Rose is supposed to be running several races on the strip this week in preparation for the Belmont. This is something that Elliot did not do last year. I still think Elliot kicked Smarty into gear at the same point on the track that he always made his run before. Unfortunately, those tracks were smaller than Belmont, so there was too much distance to sustain that drive. Tim Ritchey seems to me to be a real thinking trainer that learned from last years race. I expect they will set a definite plan of when and where to kick Alex into high gear and I will be very surprised if the Sunday comments say he moved too soon.

3. Birdstone may have been 36-1 last year, but the little guy was already a Gr 1 winner. As the adage goes, Gr 1 winners tend to win Gr 1 races. Other than Giacomo, who I fully expect to run the exact same race he has each time out this year, with a Beyer in the 95-100 range yet again, the best the field has to offer is a Gr 3 winner, Southern Africa, who did a lifetime top in that race of 96. Reverberate of course had an nice place in a Gr 2, but that's it. In fact as far as Beyer figs go, Alex has 4 100+ figs. The other 10 horses combined have 2.

At least its looking like a nice full field, but frankly, the undercard races look to have more competitiveness and value. Alex may not win, it is a horse race after all, but he will be a deserving favorite as Smarty was last year and his competition is far far weaker. In the end, we will have had 2 very different TC seasons in the last 2 years, but I believe we will have missed a TC champion by 1 length in both of them come about 6:40 Saturday.

I'll predict now Alex as the winner in a final time (if it's dry) of about 2:27.1

[kenwoodallpromos]

AA will have the "target" (Bailey's word).
Bailey, Day, Frankel are the admitted Belmont spoilers. Why can't opponents just keep AA outside during his run? The Red Sea opened up for him in the Preakness and he had a totally clear path along the rail because no one was targeting him. Anyone 2 lengths in front can legally impede (Scappy T did!). It is a crapshoot but AA is the best TC horse this year so I hope he gets beat- I want to see 3 different TC winners, then GZ can can beat them all in the BC Classic! :lol:

[OTM Al]

Yeah, Ghostzapper......well, he won't have trouble beating anyone out there when he runs. Suburban is now out...waiting til Whitney.....I can see it now. After he blows the field away in the Whitney, Frankel decides the Woodward is too soon, so he skips that too. Who knows, maybe the BC would be too soon for that final turf race they have to run. If he runs 4 times now this year I'll be surprised.

Back to the topic though, after the Derby I had predicted 3 different TC winners as I figured on Alex for the Preakness, but figured some of the stronger stayer type horses would be around for the Belmont, Noble Causeway for one. They are not however, so I have to say Alex for the last 2 legs now.

[toetoe]

Congrats, big guy ... er, I mean little guy. I've always admired you, and now I gather from OTM Al that you are a GR.1 winner! Cool.

[Kreed]

I still think SJ was 2nd rate. AA towers over SJ ... Now, 2nd rate isn't bad
for some Philly patriot, so i'm not dunking SJ ... but can you imagine NOW
if he won the Belmont Stakes, his joining the Hall of Greats? TY Birdstone.

[toetoe]

If you call Smarty Farty second-rate as a three-year-old, you must think the same of Seattle Slew, AS A THREE-YEAR-OLD. Very similar soph campaigns, with the '77 crew VERY weak. Maybe Cormorant had big talent, but Sanhedrin, Run Dusty Run and Bob's Dusty were, to put it very kindly, um .. mediocre.

[keilan]

I still think SJ was 2nd rate. AA towers over SJ ... Now, 2nd rate isn't bad
for some Philly patriot, so i'm not dunking SJ ... but can you imagine NOW
if he won the Belmont Stakes, his joining the Hall of Greats? TY Birdstone.


Derek did you purchase your fishing licence?

Every year we read about how each group of 3yo's are weaker then previous years. Well this year, this group of 3yo's is about as weak a group collectively that I have seen for a long time. Lost In The Fog is the best 3yo on dirt in the States today and imo could have beat most of these routing, there’s no questioning the outcome sprinting. It’s not solid management to ask a horse to sprint then run classic distances as a 3yo. But if they ever ask Lost In The Fog to route or try the grass he’ll surprise most punters. He is talented enough to be a champion sprinter or router imo, AA can’t carry his lunch-pail but Smarty Pants could!!!

[Bobby]

Smarty 2nd rate. No. Another length and racing immortality. Probably the most popular 3YO that didn't win the triple crown. Dominated every horse he ran against and ran against them all.

[OTM Al]

Thing about Smarty too was that he was still a bit on the immature side when he was doing his racing. The farm owners say he's grown about another hand since they got him and filled out quite a bit. He may have been a real monster if he would have stayed on the track. Much as I want to, I can't call him a great horse because he never got the career chance to prove that, but man he was damn good.

[Elysium Stables]

Derek did you purchase your fishing licence?

Every year we read about how each group of 3yo's are weaker then previous years. Well this year, this group of 3yo's is about as weak a group collectively that I have seen for a long time. Lost In The Fog is the best 3yo on dirt in the States today and imo could have beat most of these routing, there’s no questioning the outcome sprinting. It’s not solid management to ask a horse to sprint then run classic distances as a 3yo. But if they ever ask Lost In The Fog to route or try the grass he’ll surprise most punters. He is talented enough to be a champion sprinter or router imo, AA can’t carry his lunch-pail but Smarty Pants could!!!

Ya such a weak group that BR and Consolidator both broke track records, as well as the stake records. AA has beaten 2 stakes records at 6f, if those races had the prestige as the classic distances do he would be running in them and winning just the same. Its actually a testament to his athleticism that with his breeding he has been able to stretch out to the classic distances. So don't knock the horse he runs his heart out every time.

[Bobby]

Its kinda hard to assess how good a given 3yo crop is when the vast majority of the standouts retire b4 there 4yo season. I don't think this group is that much different than any of the others. Maybe figure wise but I think those are screwed this year anyway, especially that FLA group.
I guess the breeding shed will determine how good a crop is in the future. That'd be hard to assess 2 though.

[Wiley]

The standard used to be how well 3 year olds did when they matched up against older horses later in the year. Granted nowadays many don't make it past the three year old restricted races early in the year so this cannot be used as readily. You can look at the Classic as an example where 3 year olds in general over the years have performed ok winning 7 out of 21 races by my count though looking at their impact value might tell more. Tiznow was the last in 2000. I remember '85 as a good year where Chief's Crown, Proud Truth and Spend a Buck all beat older horses in Grade 1's.

[46zilzal]

Sprinters have a better shot going long than routers have going short, BUT NOTHING, NOTHING about Lost in the Fog dictates that he can rate and if pushed LONG, he looks like he would exhuast himself and backup.

[keilan]

Sprinters have a better shot going long than routers have going short, BUT NOTHING, NOTHING about Lost in the Fog dictates that he can rate and if pushed LONG, he looks like he would exhuast himself and backup.


Thats what guys like you said about GhostZapper :D

46 stick to topics where you know something.

[keilan]

Ya such a weak group that BR and Consolidator both broke track records, as well as the stake records. AA has beaten 2 stakes records at 6f, if those races had the prestige as the classic distances do he would be running in them and winning just the same. Its actually a testament to his athleticism that with his breeding he has been able to stretch out to the classic distances. So don't knock the horse he runs his heart out every time.


AA is ultra consistent but below the standard Derby Horse!! That's just fact, you shouldn't take that as a slight against him.

[46zilzal]

Most animals apportion their speed further as they mature. It is ashamed that many potentially good ones were heading to the breeding shed before their time. Ghostzapper is just a pure oddity. Tracking energy distribution per track per distance, Zapper's records make a mockery out of standards gleaned over several seasons. The early/late balance for MOST horses going 9.0 plus is in the negative 8 to 12 range, but 'zapper ran his last two routes in the +14 range...an atuomatic throw out for any MORTAL nag.

Until the Fog can show some signs of apportioning, or PROVE that he can do what the above one has shown, well, then he is VERY suspect.

[Bobby]

AA is ultra consistent but below the standard Derby Horse!! That's just fact, you shouldn't take that as a slight against him.

No, AA is not below the standard Derby horse. Where did you get that from? He has been dominant as a 2 & 3 yr old. As good of numbers as any other derby winner.

Lost Fog - he's not running routes for a reason. By now connections, woulda gone for the big prizes if they thought he wuz anything beyond a sprinter. He's run against ???????????????????? nothing.

[46zilzal]

Until the Fog can show some signs of apportioning, or PROVE that he can do what the above one has shown, well, then he is VERY suspect.
I am going to correct myself. This one has a CHANCE of going longer on closer examination of his energy distribution. NOT a need to lead, just so much quicker that it appeared that way. Has run early/presser and once sustained/presser alone on the lead.

[keilan]

You're starting to get the hang of it now 46 :)