uncertain betting decisions

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

A question for all the horseplayers on the subject of last minute betting decisions.What is your success rate when you have clearly performed the necessary hard work to uncover a select betting opportunity, and close to post time you have some doubts about the validity of the selection.?

i believe this is a common occurance among serious players and deserves some attention as to the best and most effective procedure to develop the total confidence that is necessary for a prime investment of racing capital. NO EDGE NO BET NO DEVIATIONS is a mantra i have followed for years, but at times the decision is a real tough situation close to post time.

My purpose is to avoid the factors that can ruin the daily businesslike approach that is taken by the profit minded players. thank you zappi

[Overlay]

I find that quantifying my handicapping to the greatest extent possible (rather than relying on subjective opinion or "feel") gives me greater ability to control and also follow through on my selections and wagers, both from the standpoint of providing concrete documentation of past success for greater confidence in betting, and of serving as a firm basis for passing horses or races when value is not present.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If I think I do not have to watch the race I have a good bet. The more I look at the paddock or post parade the less confidence I have.
In watching live I am most intersted in watching for track bias and for horses with good stamina. If the field is very short put $2 on every horse to boost confidence in your picks! I have done that!

[Valuist]

Unlike what they say in school regarding taking tests, I believe a bettor's LAST impression is their best. The more time you have to think things over, the more likely you will make a rational decision. Paddock, post parade, and tote board movements are key here.

[kitts]

I finally learned my lesson on changing bets from the original. I now write them down and do not change a bet. I do cancel turf bets if the race is off turf but the other bets do not change. Works for me.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have two opinions related to this subject:

1. The wagers that I have the least confidence in are generally the most profitable. This is because they are usually comprised of longshots which, logically, do not breed the confidence of (say) a 4/5 horse.


2. Confidence comes from experience and should reflect how I feel about the overall performance of my approach rather than a given race. My approach is consistent (actually systematic) and has proven itself over time. The confidence in a given race (or lack therof) is a reflection of my chances of cashing and is reflected in the risk-reward scenario (i.e. "I've only got a 37% chance of cashing in this race, therefore I will bet less money.").


Dave Schwartz

[NoDayJob]

If you don't keep records you'll never develop confidence in your bets. Changing your mind at the last minute is the "kiss of death".

NDJ

[JackS]

I'm with Ken. Make small wagers to win on the longshots that you feel should be considered possibles, or start a small ticket on a rolling DD or P3 if available. I've hit these a few times and can tell you that on occasion, the hedge can be more profitable than the prime. As Ken stated, this can add excitement and at the same time provide a measure of confidence that you won't be tossing every ticket purchased on the floor.

[hurrikane]

try to remove as much emotion as you can from the decision. And the outcome for that matter. You will be better off.

Save the emotion stuff for the bedroom where it belongs

[JackS]

I guess we all have to find our own comfort level. I wouldn't be hedging on anything less than 5 or 6 /1. I'd also only consider the hedge usable in those races where the hedge makes sence. We usually know these types of races when we see them. Experience tells us that the premier bet at acceptible odds is less than a sure thing and possibly that the odds on favorite is either a toss or at best a gamble.

[J-bred]

I don't like to make up my mind early. I do my best handicapping with 10 minutes to post.

[chickenhead]

I've learned that if my confidence is shaky, it generally means the value is not there...so pass. If the value was evident, I wouldn't be trying to split hairs.

[sjk]

I have two opinions related to this subject:

1. The wagers that I have the least confidence in are generally the most profitable. This is because they are usually comprised of longshots which, logically, do not breed the confidence of (say) a 4/5 horse.


2. Confidence comes from experience and should reflect how I feel about the overall performance of my approach rather than a given race. My approach is consistent (actually systematic) and has proven itself over time. The confidence in a given race (or lack therof) is a reflection of my chances of cashing and is reflected in the risk-reward scenario (i.e. "I've only got a 37% chance of cashing in this race, therefore I will bet less money.").


Dave Schwartz

I agreee with Dave 100%. I believe in Black Box betting. Over the years there have been times when I have gotten concerned that a horse that I made 7-2 was going off at 20-1 and looked at the PPs. Being horrified at the way the horse looked on paper I cut my bet size and regretted it often enough that I am no longer tempted to do so.

I am doing well to maintain a 12% win percent so I am equanimical about losing races. Just lost a couple races at Prm where favorites that I thought were overbet ran out of the exacta but I got nothing anyway. If you feel good about your approach you need to feel good about betting and losing because that is the path to betting and winning.