GHOST ASTOUNDS, REACTION CONFOUNDS

[DerbyTrail]

What's a horse gotta do around here anyway???
By Steve Byk
DerbyTrail.com

There seems to be no satisfying the racing public. For years we've been assaulted by the race media and fans' call for a "champion" beyond reproach... A runner so dominant that he or she earns their place among the pantheon of thoroughbred immortals. Well, we've got one and apparently he's not good enough.

Ghostzapper put on yet another display of his overwhelming superiority in the revered Metropolitan Handicap last Saturday, and you'd think he stunk up Big Sandy to high heaven based on the reaction of far too many people who claim to follow the game.

"Didn't carry enough weight..."

"Didn't face anyone of "quality"..."

"Doesn't run enough to be considered an all-time great..."

Beyond belief... I dislike and distrust Frank Stronach as much as anyone. I'm no fan of Bobby Frankel generally. But anyone who tries to diminish the accomplishments and greatness of their son of Awesome Again is absolutely missing the most wonderful thing we've seen under tack since Trigger.

Ghostzapper is making a mockery of the standards for speed set by any of his Hall of Fame forbearers. Jerry Brown (Thoro-Graph) and Len Ragozin, the creators of premium speed figures, have no point of reference for the performances of Ghostzapper, and their numbers go back to the 70's. The Beyer Speed Figures, an "Andy-come-lately" by sheet figure standards, also confirm that the 2004 Horse of the Year is creating a legacy with every passing start that will not soon be matched and may never have been preceded heretofore.

He hasn't carried enough weight? The assignment of 123 was the highest for a Met Mile favorite in more than 10 years. The last Met winner to carry more was Gulch in 1988 (125). Met heroes Langfuhr (122, 1997), Garthorn (124, 1986) and Fit to Fight (124, 1984) lugged similar imposts. At this time of year, handicap horses typically start out with modest weight assignments which then build a few pounds per start as the season progresses.

If Ghostzapper were to stick with the schedule originally laid out for him by Frankel before his sinus infection delayed the start of the campaign, the five year old could expect to tote 125-128 in the Suburban and 126-130 in the Whitney before the 'weight for age' Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic (126). Again by comparison, the last Suburban winners to carry 126 or more are Fit to Fight (126, 1884), Temperence Hill (127, 1981) and Key to the Mint (126, 1973). Whitney highweight runners? Criminal Type (1st, 126, 1990), Broad Brush (3rd, 127, 1987), Ancient Title (1st, 128, 1975) and Dr. Fager (1st, 132, 1968).

Hasn't faced anyone of quality? Saturday's Met field was short but distinguished with three of Ghostzapper's five opponents having won Grade One races and the entire group counting for 15 graded victories between them. And let's remember that the Adena Springs colorbearer was making his first start since last October's Breeders' Cup Classic win. (In addition, the nine time winner (11 starts) had missed training after he endured a hole being drilled in his head only a couple of months earlier to relieve the pressure of the sinus infection).

Doesn't run enough to be considered an all-time great? If Ghostzapper does make four more career starts, he will have run 15 times (twice as a juvenile, four times as a soph, five times at four and five). If he were to win his remaining starts, and who appears remotely capable of beating him, then his final career record would be 15/13-0-1 for more than $8 million off solid 2 and 3 year old seasons and fabulous 4 and 5 year old campaigns (Possible 8 Gr. I wins).

Seattle Slew went 17/14-2-0 performing fabulously at 2, 3 and 4 (8 Gr. I wins). Don't those careers, minus the Triple Crown exploits of course, look similar? And remember that in another parallel to the gaps in Ghostzapper's PP's, Slew ran ONCE between July '77 (the Swaps fiasco) and the fall of '78.. I don't hear anyone decrying Slew's career choices. He only ran twice more than 'Zapper expects to run, and that was "back" in 1976-78.

The fact is that Stronach was exceedingly generous to allow the public another season of chances to see Ghostzapper when the horse could have gone off to his second career after last fall's campaign closeout in Texas. And fans have to understand that a horse running as fast as Ghostzapper has been running MUST be judiciously managed as Frankel is doing. We're lucky to have as many more opportunities to witness him as his connections allow, and better appreciate them while we can... There's no telling when we'll get another one like him.

[Buckeye]

He's the greatest horse ever.

:sleeping:

He's just underappreciated.

[Suff]

What's a horse gotta do around here anyway???
By Steve Byk
DerbyTrail.com

There The fact is that Stronach was exceedingly generous to allow the public another season of chances to see Ghostzapper when the horse could have gone off to his second career after last fall's campaign closeout in Texas. And fans have to understand that a horse running as fast as Ghostzapper has been running MUST be judiciously managed as Frankel is doing. We're lucky to have as many more opportunities to witness him as his connections allow, and better appreciate them while we can... There's no telling when we'll get another one like him.

Steve I saw this in a Paper or on the net somewhere today?? I think. I read it and thought it was good. I did'nt see your byline. Am I imagining it, or were you published somewhere today?

[DerbyTrail]

Steve I saw this in a Paper or on the net somewhere today?? I think. I read it and thought it was good. I did'nt see your byline. Am I imagining it, or were you published somewhere today?

Was on my DerbyTrail.com site and Equidaily may have picked it up.. (Seth (Equidaily) has been very generous showcasing my work). Otherwise somebody may have lifted it and used it... Pricci also wrote a Zapper homage today, so maybe that's what you saw...

[Suff]

Was on my DerbyTrail.com site and Equidaily may have picked it up.. (Seth (Equidaily) has been very generous showcasing my work). Otherwise somebody may have lifted it and used it... Pricci also wrote a Zapper homage today, so maybe that's what you saw...


Maybe I read it here......Probably did. Internet takes me to the vast corners of the world. When I get back , I forget where I've been 1/2 the time..

[The Judge]

Jerry Brown has no standard to measure Ghostzapper but Andrew Beyer does? Why is that? Oh that's right Andrew Beyer is the new kid on the block and the DRF just thought they would give him and not the other guys a train load of money. Who are these Hall Of Fame forebarers that he is making a mockery of, one of them wouldn't be Secretariet would it or Spectacular Bid or Citation would it? Must some other Triple Crown winners then. Yeah I know the breed has advanced Jerry Brown and his Thorograph reading buddy Frankle said so. Oh by the way Ghostzapper has run one (1 1/4) race not yet ready for saint hood.

[Wiley]

DT,
Slew won the most grueling three route races a horse can run in the short span of 5 weeks while at virtually the same time in his career GZ was running sprints - given fantastically - but these types of races are just not comparable. When GZ comes back from anything similar to winning the Triple Crown and continues on then you can compare their race record and there is no chance of that happening.
Fit to Fight, not considered a great horse by most, won the New York triple in 1984 by winning the Met, Brooklyn (then 1 mile and a quarter) and then the Suburban (then a mile and a half) in 5 weeks and it looks like GZ won't even make the Suburban because of his 'hard' race in the Met – Whitney next.
GZ is one fast dude and I will easily say he is the best of his 3-year-old crop but he will have to do more to compare to all timers at a classic distance - Slew, Spectacular Bid, Forego etc.
Also GZ is the reigning HOY and by all accounts the best horse in the world on dirt - he should carry the weight of a champion in handicap races. Most of the horses you mention were not of horse of the year champion caliber.

I am not a sheets player so I don’t have a reference for your comparison there, but in other threads on the deeper cushion issue being more physically demanding, shouldn’t a deeper cushion be more forgiving and energy absorbing so theoretically a horse should be able to run more often on it? At least less skeletal strain – the cause of most serious TB problems, but most likely muscular strain increases. On the other hand I guess if the idea is horses today are running faster (doubtful) then either their turn over rate is much higher now or their stride is greater to cover more ground (can’t see the later as probably the opposite is true given the speed breeding now).
A neat study would be to cover the number of strides taken in a given race and compare the two if possible to determine if there is any validity to the Brown/Frankel statement. Granted the ground covered in two different races by two different horses will not be the same but maybe some adjustments could be made to help ease out these differences.
One last thing the great horses of the 60’s, 70’s and most of the 80’s ran on hay, oats and water now almost all run on some form of medication whether needed or not like Lasix and Bute – GZ included – guess he is off the Bute for now.
Kudos to Stronach for keeping him running and it is a sad reflection on our game when the best horses shut it down after such brief careers that everyone makes a big deal about GZ sticking around.
GZ is scheduled to run 3 times at Belmont and one time at Saratoga hardly a whirlwind tour – check out the Bid’s 4-year-old campaign in ’80, he ran all over the country and in all types of track conditions from 7F to a mile and a quarter.
Oh, you forgot Forego for high weights in the Suburban in '75 he carried 134 at a mile and half for that year only.

[Tom]

You cannot compare GZ to Forgo....Forgo was a champion on the track. A monster pulling a freight train of weight ruinning em down late - he had as much heart as late speed.

GZ will never, ever excite like Forgo did. The thing with the real good ones is that you didn't know f they would win or not - the stretch duel between Affirmed and Alydar, Forgo wininng by a nose, Jonh Henry just getting there, Secretariate keeping it close, then exploding to win the TC when everyone was hodling their breath thinking Sham would challenge him one last time. Personal Ensign just up , undefeted career on the line, in the mud, in the BC.

The only thing to talkabout GZ is did he run a 116 or a 122???
Bor-ing!

[kenwoodallpromos]

If Zapper does what Tiznow did I will agree with you. I've seen the Ca State proclaimation of Tiznow day for his 2 BC Classic wins- it is framed at the Harris Farm Restaurant.
I like horses that can overcome physical problems and win.

[Macdiarmadillo]

Ask the non-racing person about Ghostzapper and that's the reply you'd get. They sure knew who Smarty Jones was, whatever SJ was to the racegoers. Frankel whining about not having television coverage of Ghostzapper is his typical schtick that everyone including the media has heard too many times. At least we don't have to listen to Baffert spout off nowadays. Using GZ as an example of part of the larger problem about limited racing coverage would have been on the mind of someone less ego-driven.

To a lot of handicappers, the larger question of legal and illegal medication hangs over any horse Frankel trains. And we're potentially going to be able to see him, what, 4 times this year? And GZ will continue to be in unbettable short fields before the BC. Plus the vast majority of us have never seen him nor will never see him in person. Face it, Derby Trail, your criteria is just not typical of everyone else.

[DerbyTrail]

Well, I'm THRILLED that the above piece generated such great and savvy response!

Mac: I suppose the "lack" of media excitement or attention around Zapper stems from his not being involved in the Derby Trail at 3. As much as we all love The Cup as horseplayers and fans, it just doesn't have the same "juice" to the general public that the Derby, et al, does. When I mentioned that I don't generally care for Bobby, it's generated by the exact topic you cite... I'm at Saratoga 36 days a meet, and remember very clearly two years ago when the Frankel, and Pletcher, barn(s) suddenly came down with a "bug" after dominating the first month of Spa action. Hmmm...

Ken: It's funny you brought up Tiznow, as he was a horse towards whom I was ambivalent for the same reason I wasn't excited about Zapper last year. Pleasantly Perfect and even Cigar too... As I said to Mac just now, I guess we collectively have been trained to respect and follow the horses that come up through the ranks via the "obvious" route: Top Juvy stakes, Triple Crown Trail, etc.. But the great geldings and late developers deserve the same respect and admiration. Everyone is "down" on the win early/win fast breeding practices that many believe are destroying the breed and game. If we gave as much attention to Pleasant Tap/Broad Brush-type sired runners who deliver their best at full maturation (5 y.o.-ish), maybe there wouldn't be as much early retirements, PP gaps, light schedules, etc..

Judge: I used Jerry, Lenny and Andy as blanket confirmation among figure-makers that Zapper is running holes in the wind... Their numbers are in agreement that there have been few horses that have ever run like GZ is running. I believe at the time DRF made their decision to feature outside figs in PP's, they had negotiated with Ragozin as an option. (I think Brown was still with Len at that time). I have equal respect and appreciation for what all of them have contributed to the game and handicapping.

As for where Zapper fits with the like of Secretariat, Citation and Bid, it's hard to say until the dust settles on his career... The people who seem to really appreciate Ghostzapper have been saying he's the best they've seen since Bid. Given Zapper's sprint-stretchout success, I've heard veterans call him a modern day Dr. Fager. I think one reason we never are satisfied with any potential new racing hero is that we all want to project the old school careers on this era's runners, and it seems that those days are gone forever...

Wiley: Great stuff.. And you're right about every thing you bring up... I ostensibly agree, especially regarding Slew's Crown and Fit to Fight's Handicap Crown and Zapper's inability to even contest those grueling gauntlets. (I loved Fit to Fight as a runner, and all you have to do is watch Scrappy T to appreciate the kind of horse his dad was.) But I would contend that the group of horses that were carrying similar weight as Zapper in the events cited are pretty darn elite... Criminal Type was a HOY.. Temperence Hill and Key to the Mint were 3 y.o. Champions.. And who can find a bad thing to say about Broad Brush?

The 'cushion/stride/physiology/drug' issues are a collective "bollagong" in any of these serious historical context discussions. I figure the deeper we delve into the topic and the more factors we overlay on the discussion, the tougher it will be to come to any conclusion. Maybe it's best to just enjoy the spectacle, appreciate the efforts and draw no conclusions!

Really appreciate everyone's thoughtful feedback..
Steve

[J-bred]

Judge: I used Jerry, Lenny and Andy as blanket confirmation among figure-makers that Zapper is running holes in the wind

Speed figures, and any approach that is time-based, is a bogus methodology.

Jerry Brown states that according to his figures, that GZ is the "fastest horse in history". Does anyone care to guess who the second fastest horse in history is, according to T'graph?




NORTHERN STAG!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Not picking on Brown specifically, because Beyer gave him a figure that would be fast enough to win most BC Sprints too. Any method which gives a horse like this a figure of that magnitude must be exposed for what it is... bogus voodoo science.

[The Judge]

When someone posts that a horse (in this case Ghostzapper) "is" (that means rigth now, at this moment, the present, not the future) making a "mockery" of the standard of speed of his "hall of fame forbearers" it pulls out the question ,who's he talking about? If not Secretariat, Spectacular Bid ,who by the way ran a 1 1/4 in 1:57.4 , or Citation, then who is he talking about. I'm still waiting or should I wait 10-20 years and then rate the Ghostzapper. While I'm quite willing to wait it doesn't seem as if Jerry Brown is, nor until now you either, Bobby well it's his horse so we will forgive him as he will saying the same thing about some other horse in a year or two.

[Rookie]

How soon we forget about Cigar.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

I might just be a harness guy,but in my youth I still enjoyed watching the tbreds.I really thought nobody could ever forget 5 times HOY Kelso,but he's not even mentioned by any of you guys.I looked it up and he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup 5 consective years when it was a 2 mile race!

[Tom]

I might just be a harness guy,but in my youth I still enjoyed watching the tbreds.I really thought nobody could ever forget 5 times HOY Kelso,but he's not even mentioned by any of you guys.I looked it up and he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup 5 consective years when it was a 2 mile race!

Kelso was before my time raceing-wise, but I still put him the league with Sec, Forgo, Affirmed, Alydar. I put him ahead of Cigar, and would not put GZ anywhere near him.
Ironic that Kelso so loved the track, that he waited until they paraded him out one more time for a tribute befreo giving in to mortality.

[GeTydOn]

People can't even remember Ghostzapper now because he runs so infrequently. No way at the rate he's going he stands the test of time and becomes a legend of the game as Secretariat, Affirmed & Alydar, Forego, Kelso, etc.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Ghostzapper needs to do what oldtimers have done!
Before I got into handicapping I already had heard of Man O'War; Seabiscuit; Citation; War Admiral.
The reason I heard about them is because at the county fairs they had a water squirt-gun horserace game and those were the names of those horses!
My point is, Great is Great and Fame is Fame but they are not necessarily one and the same. In the eyes of many PR tyes, all press is good, even bad press.
GZ will never be as famous as Zippy Chippy unless he is made famous.
Don't take my word for it; look up Personal Ensign's record!

[PaceAdvantage]

To me, Ghostzapper is on par with a Skip Away at this point. That's about it.....to call him the greatest horse in the last 20 years is absurd.

It's funny, nobody has mentioned my all time favorite horse of the last 20 years, Holy Bull (Sunday Silence, a close second). Holy Bull was a winner (and a fast one at that) either sprinting or going long, just like Ghostzapper.

If you ever get the chance, look at Holy Bull's past performances. You've heard of Key Races? Holy Bull was a KEY HORSE!! LOL

[cj]

We'll never know, but my guess is if Holy Bull didn't get hurt, Cigar would be known as just a pretty decent handicap horse.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just to follow up my Key Horse angle with Holy Bull, how many horses that have finished behind Ghostzapper have come back to win a Grade 1 race?

[cj]

Roses in May won the Dubai World Cup. Saint Liam won the Donn.

[Tee]

Just to follow up my Key Horse angle with Holy Bull, how many horses that have finished behind Ghostzapper have come back to win a Grade 1 race?

Saint Liam & Roses In May?

[cj]

To be fair, most of Ghostzapper's races were around one turn, where there are very few G1s. His route win at Mth was against 2 other horses, so the BC Classic is the only real race where you might get a G1 winner. Some of them retired, but two have already won G1s.

[Tee]

To me, Ghostzapper is on par with a Skip Away at this point.

OK I'm a bit curious as to how Ghostzapper is on par with Skip Away?

[J-bred]

It's too bad Swale died untimely because he could've become one of the all-time greats too.

[PaceAdvantage]

OK I'm a bit curious as to how Ghostzapper is on par with Skip Away?

Both were very, very good older horses....

But you're right, maybe Ghostzapper isn't on par with Skip Away....

After all, at the end of his 5yo season, Skip Sway was a winner of SEVEN Grade 1 races lifetime....as of today, Ghostzapper has only FOUR Grade 1 wins....

At 4, Skip Away won the BC Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Massachusetts Handicap, and Suburban......Ghostzapper won the Tom Fool, Iselin, Woodward and BC Classic.....

At 5, Skip Away won the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pimlico Special, Massachusetts Handicap, Gulfstream Park Handicap, Woodward, Iselin, and the Donn....Ghostzapper won the Met Mile so far....(Grade 1 races in BOLD)

Plus, Skip Away beat a little ol' horse named CIGAR along the way.....

So Tee, if you were trying to point out to me that Ghostzapper ain't even on Skip Away's level yet, then I agree with you, and stand corrected. Ghostzapper ain't no Skip Away......

Maybe Criminal Type is a more likely comparison? As a 5yo, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, Hollywood Gold Cup, Met Mile, San Antonio, Whitney, and San Pasquel....LOL

[Tee]

Just wonderin what your thought process was PA, nothing more, nothing less. ;)

BTW,

Skip Away finished his career with 10 Grade 1 wins. :)

He also carried 130 & 131 lbs in victory.

A stance can be taken talent wise & speed wise in Ghostzappers corner, but not quite yet in the accomplishment category.

JMHO

[PaceAdvantage]

Didn't Skip Away Beyer in the 120s more than once? If so, he's on par with GZ speed-wise as well.....

In my younger days, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that "it's all about speed figures!!!!!" And I'd probably be agreeing with the folks that think GZ is the second coming....

But, I've mellowed with age (believe it or not)!

[Tee]

I remember a 125 in a losing effort to Gentleman in the Pimlico Special. I think he might have received a 119 for the Breeders Cup win.

Other than that I don't remember!! :) :)

& I have been looking :D

Some people today are probably wishing I had mellowed with age. :lol:

[Suff]

Some people today are probably wishing I had mellowed with age. :lol:

He won the Mass Cap two years in a Row, at 130#'s.

[cj]

At least three times Skippy Beyer-ed in the 120s, but he lost at least two of them, maybe more.