DRF Belmont Contenders

[LisaMcNear]

I haven't seen this elsewhere, so here are the DRF contenders [PDF]:
http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2005/contenders.pdf

It appears the DRF is speculating on several horses, but Buzzards Bay is passing on the Belmont.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28379

So far, it appears that nine horses are planning on Belmont: Afleet, Giacomo, Scrappy T, Southern Africa, Reverberate, Andromeda's Hero, Pinpoint, Chekhov, and A.P. Arrow.

DRF is also listing Oratory, Watchmon, Sort It Out - but I haven't seen any other confirmation they are going.


Anybody have any thoughts about "Southern Africa" in the Belmont?

[LisaMcNear]

I found the link for the nine horses possible for Belmont so far: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28380

Another article discounts Reverberate somewhat:
REVERBERATE (Thunder Gulch), runner-up in the nine-furlong Peter Pan S. (G2) last Saturday, remains on the fence for the Belmont, according to trainer Sal Russo. "The big thing is that if we did run in the Belmont it would be his third race in 34 days," Russo said. "That's a lot to ask."

[DerbyTrail]

Anybody have any thoughts about "Southern Africa" in the Belmont?

Lisa.. Re:Southern Africa
Southern Africa has the look of colt that should do well at Belmont. He's been cleverly handled, showed ability in the honest tries at 2 versus Declan's and has progressed incrementally this year.

He comes from an interesting European female family, with his damsire being the British oddity 'Be My Chief'... This is from a British pedigree writer:

"Be My Chief was champion European two year old in 1989. His best win came in the 1 mile G1 Racing Post Trophy. He is best known in America for siring Donna Viola, the top filly on turf a few years back (Yellow Ribbon, Gamely, both Gr. I's). In fact, in Britain, where most of his progeny race, he has done exceptionally well with his runners on the AW (dirt) tracks. Be My Chief has had twice as many dirt winners as you’d expect if his progeny were equally effective on both turf and dirt.

Given Be My Chief’s very much dirt-oriented US pedigree, his progeny’s seeming preference for dirt is hardly surprising. (You may also recall his Hail The Chief who won the Hawthorne Gold Cup a couple year back...)

As for distance preference, Be My Chief’s do seem to exhibit a strong bias. His older runners in better class contests have only succeeded very rarely at trips less than a mile or longer than a mile and a quarter. About 75% of his best runners seem to be effective at 8-10f."

Young sire Cape Town has been getting all kinds of runners (including '03 Oaks winner Bird Town), so it's hard to say if he adds anything to Southern Africa's stamina. Based on the early call and finish times of his last three races, it appears that Southern Africa has a nice rating gear that allows him to keep up with honest-to-hot paces, and enough kick to finish evenly (:32.4 in the Borderland, :38.4 in WinStar).

As viable as any of the exotics considerations underneath Giacomo, Alex and Reverberate (if he runs).

[LisaMcNear]

Thanks DerbyTrail! It sounds like one of several I should keep an open mind to when the field is finalized. Thanks again for your detailed response.

[46zilzal]

The final leg of the triple is SO DIFFERENT to any race these will run in the rest of their days, that a smart trainer could sneak in a true PLODDER (an Editor's Note or Birdstone that can run all day at a steady, but slow pace) and just OUTLAST the many in this field that MUST have a few nicks an bruises from the first two legs. Then what a boon to that one's credentials when they retire to the breeding shed.

[LisaMcNear]

Flamboyant owner Ken Ramsey told the Thoroughbred Times that he expects some criticism for his decision to run Nolan's Cat, who has finished second in three of four starts this year.

"Going to the Belmont with a maiden, I don't know if that will play too well, but we've done our critiques of the figures and times, and he ran the last quarter at Churchill Downs faster than he did the first quarter, so that's the kind of horse you need to go a mile and a half," Ramsey said. "I don't know if he's good enough to get the job done, but we're willing to pay the $10,000 to start and $10,000 to enter to give him the opportunity to see if he is."

Nolan's Cat, who is trained by Dale Romans, breezed one mile in 1:42-4/5 at Churchill Downs Wednesday.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/story/315393p-269785c.html

-decisions, decisions.

[DerbyTrail]

The final leg of the triple is SO DIFFERENT to any race these will run in the rest of their days, that a smart trainer could sneak in a true PLODDER (an Editor's Note or Birdstone that can run all day at a steady, but slow pace) and just OUTLAST the many in this field that MUST have a few nicks an bruises from the first two legs.

That is NOT the profile of a Belmont winner.. The Belmont is typically won by horses running near the front end. "Plodding" Belmont winners are few and far between.

[Suff]

That is NOT the profile of a Belmont winner.. The Belmont is typically won by horses running near the front end. "Plodding" Belmont winners are few and far between.


I'm betting ChekHov. I know what I saw although I can't explain the Peter Pan.

[DerbyTrail]

I'm betting ChekHov. I know what I saw although I can't explain the Peter Pan.

Suff..

Fair enough.. But if you like Chekhov, and Reverberate goes, don't leave him out.

[46zilzal]

Well aware of the 'PROFILE' but without much stamina breeding out in the real world, predict that more and more of the marathons are going to won by steady runners, which, at many of the shorter distances look slow and plodding...just like Editor's Note and Birdstone.

[Suff]

Suff..

Fair enough.. But if you like Chekhov, and Reverberate goes, don't leave him out.

I'm going to bet him in all spots. He'll be fat. What do you think 18-1? More? Big Huge number if 10 go? Maybe 38-1? I don't know. They think so much of him in NY...and his pedigree is mouth watering. They may still pile on.

[DerbyTrail]

Well aware of the 'PROFILE' but without much stamina breeding out in the real world, predict that more and more of the marathons are going to won by steady runners, which, at many of the shorter distances look slow and plodding...just like Editor's Note and Birdstone.

ZZ,

Why focus on Birdstone and Editor's Note (even Victory Gallop) in the face of Empire Maker, Sarava, Point Given, Commendable (!), LDK, Touch Gold, Thunder Gulch, Tabasco Cat, Colonial Affair, et al..??

Belmont winners invariably are in contact with the leaders to the six furlong marker before making their move between there and the top of the stretch. At that point, their momentum carries them to the wire while closers, (and many plodders), are gasping for breath with a quarter mile yet to run.

True plodders (horses that run even, consistent eighths), are at their best in the Derby... like Giacomo (as opposed to Greater Good). 10 one-eighth miles at :12.1 get you to the CD line in 2:02, and that will win many a Derby. Like it did last month...

I'm not saying you're wrong about a plodding Belmont prospect and don't disagree with the evolving "pedigreed miler as Classic winner" phenomenon suggestion. They CAN do well at Big Sandy (see Thunder Gulch). But they MUST have some turn of foot either early or late to reach contention.

[DerbyTrail]

I'm going to bet him in all spots. He'll be fat. What do you think 18-1? More? Big Huge number if 10 go? Maybe 38-1? I don't know. They think so much of him in NY...and his pedigree is mouth watering. They may still pile on.

Suff..

He'll be a number for sure.. I'd guess in the 18/20-1 range. The reason I can't stop looking at Reverberate is Centennial Farms, Sal Russo and Colonial Affair. Take a minute and dig out Affair's PP's and hold them up to Reverberate's... It's F-ing SPOOKY. I'm going to do a piece on it next week, though I just found something Dave Grening did a number of weeks ago on the same topic. The parallels are mind-blowing. And does anyone realize that Russo was a Schulhofer assistant? In 1993.. (All we need now is Julie to ride!)

[Suff]

Suff..

He'll be a number for sure.. I'd guess in the 18/20-1 range. The reason I can't stop looking at Reverberate is Centennial Farms, Sal Russo and Colonial Affair. Take a minute and dig out Affair's PP's and hold them up to

Dig um out? I worked for Don Little. Actually his son, Don, whose nickname is "do". I Kid you not, they call him Do Little
And I don't mean as a Joke. Thats the name on his door. That's what his name is. Its on his Business Card. Do Little.

that reminds me of another story
I once knew a wannabe wise guy from Boston who had his name on his business card,(Vinnie Vitruillo) but where the phone number supposed to be it said "I'll call you" "

You may know his old man, Don Little runs Centennial Farms. They're a syndicate. High end. Minimum 100 grand to get thier small deals. They put together 7-8 Million and buy 3 or 4. I was with them not to long after Colonial Affair, Jullie Krone up. Big Don was SEVP with Paine Webber. Very hootie-tootie. President of the American Polo Association. President of the Myopia Hunt Club. Do (the kid) was almost a Pro POLO player. He's got a trailer full of POLO ponies, a couple of personal Valets. When they call him Do Little, They mean it. Filthy Rich.

[OTM Al]

This field, though big, is getting worse by the day. Scrappy T now out and wow, Nick Zito entering a 3rd horse, Indy Storm. This Horse is slow slow slow and has been over rated its entire career because of its sire and trainer. Could 0-11 be the worst single year mark for a trainer in the TC? If so Nick, it looks like you're going to be a Triple Crown record holder!!!! Of course good ol' Nick is telling us that this horse just needs the extra distance......Alex could run a 29 sec last quarter and still beat this lot...well maybe not that bad, but you know what I mean. At least Reverberate stepped up to the plate, so that is one interesting horse in the field, just wish Oratory would have come out of that race too

[toetoe]

Does he have a degree in horse husbandry? Dr. Do Little? Doh !!

[LisaMcNear]

The Belmont picks are starting to come in, and as OTM Al outlined in another thread, it's all going to Afleet Alex.

Newsday [3 picks]:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/ny-sptriple064293320jun06,0,4181541.story

And Steve Haskin:
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=28464

The updated Belmont Contenders:
http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2005/contenders.pdf

If things run true to form, it may take a trifecta to make 20 bucks. :)

[Tom]

Fox Sports NY will have a one hour show covering the drawing of posts for the Belmont - Wed at 11 am.

[KingChas]

Snippet from Haskin's article:

"Of these, Andromeda's Hero looks to have the best chance for the upset. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus has a stamina- and class-laden female family, and in his last three races – a fifth in the Lane's End Stakes (gr. II), a third in the Arkansas Derby (gr. II), and an eighth in the Kentucky Derby – he galloped out past the winner after the finish. He has a bullet breeze over the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga and looks to be sitting on a big race."

Missed that gallop out on replays-very interesting

[OTM Al]

Galloping out past the winner in a race means exactly one thing to me. You lost the race.

[KingChas]

Galloping out past the winner in a race means exactly one thing to me. You lost the race.

Your right ,I don't get it either.How far after the finish?I didn't hear this mentioned before in post race Derby reads so I guess there's not to much to read into it.

[Tote Master]

A preliminary look at the contenders in the Belmont.

From what I can see from the entries in this year’s Belmont Stakes, there doesn’t seem to be very much respect for either the Derby or Preakness winners.

For example:
Why would Lukas enter AP Arrow a horse that just broke its maiden? Does he know something about the weather for Saturday that we don’t? Maybe it’ll run as good as Chekhov did in the Peter Pan after it broke its maiden in a prior race! Then there’s Nolan’s Cat. Yep, still a maiden, but what the hell he only finished 1/2 a length behind AP Arrow. So I guess its trainer is thinking along the same lines as Lukas. Of these (3) I think only Chekhov has an opportunity to improve off its last race.

Then there’s the Zito trio. I’m throwing all of them out. Andromedea’s Hero hasn’t shown a thing either on the racetrack or in the morning trials. No improvement expected. Indy’s Storm has terrific breeding and a similar running style to Afleet Alex, but is nowhere near as fast. Finally there’s Pinpoint who has really improved with the addition of blinkers in its last (3) races. Winning each one by getting to the front and holding on each time. This horse may attempt the same tactics in the Belmont, but after trying to run with Reverberate for 3/4's of a mile, I don’t expect to see it in the hunt after 1 & 1/2 miles.

So who’s left?
Aleet Alex, Giacomo, Southern Africa, Watchmon, and Reverberate.

Well, Afleet Alex certainly ran a bang-up Preakness alright, but so did Smarty Jones and Funny Cide in the last two years. Both lost in the Belmont. Neither one though had to endure the strain of trying to regain momentum after nearly going down in the heat of the race. In my mind, that has to take something out of a horse. Now its being asked to go 5/16ths of a mile further? The other thing that bothers me is that AA seems to run well every "other" race. All of this in combination with the anticipated low odds, makes me want to look elsewhere.

Giacomo looks like a one dimensional animal that seems to be able to run all day: at one speed. I believe the wide sweeping turns at Belmont and the mile and a half distance is perfect for his running style, but is he fast enough to win? Well, I guess if all the speed in front of him collapses (like in the Derby), he probably has a shot. If I had to key a horse in the Triple it would probably be this one.

Both Southern Africa and Reverberate have made dramatic improvements with the addition of blinkers over each of their last (3) races. I’m leaning a bit more toward Reverberate, because it seems to like the Belmont strip and has had some recent races over the track. It seems to be the only legitimate speed in the race, and I believe will set the early pace. If allowed to cruise early on, this one might steal it. Southern Africa may just be a bit slower then Reveberate, and really hasn’t shown anything beyond 1 & 1/16 miles. Still I think it has a decent money shot.

And finally my long shot of the race, Watchmon. A friend of mine once told me to always take a closer look at any horse that at first glance doesn’t seem to belong in the race. Well, I did that with AP Arrow and Nolan’s Cat and I still can’t figure out why they’re entered, but Watchmon is a bit different. In its first and only race as a 2-yr. old, it ran real well at 7f. Then it breaks its maiden in a marathon event (1 & 7/16 miles) at GP. That’s only 1/16 of a mile shorter then the Belmont! Granted it was a pretty slow race, but it was in the slop. Now if you compare its prior race at 1 & 1/8th miles to its last race over the Belmont strip at the same distance, I have a suspicion that this horse will likewise improve. Whether its enough to win is a good question, but in terms of value in an exotic bet. I believe it’s worth a shot.

Of course, my final selections will be based on the tote board activities.
I also wanted to let everyone know that my tote analysis for all of races the on Belmont Stakes card will be available to all PA visitors.

If you are interested in this one day demonstration just visit the following link anytime after 12:01AM on Saturday Morning:
http://www.tote-works.com/guides/onlinelisting.asp

Remember there is an earlier Post time for the First Race and we anticipate a great card.
Have a fun and profitable Belmont Stakes day!

Best of Luck!

[depalma13]

AH always gallops out past the winner.

[depalma13]

Does the fact that Watchmon only beat turf horses who were running on the dirt in the slop bother you?

[LisaMcNear]

The starters in post-position order with (sire), jockey, trainer, and odds:

1. Nolan’s Cat (Catienus), Norberto Arroyo, Dale Romans, 50-to-1;

2. Pinpoint (Peaks and Valleys), John Velazquez, Nick Zito, 20-to-1;

3. A. P. Arrow (A.P. Indy), Jerry Bailey, D. Wayne Lukas, 20-to-1;

4. Southern Africa (Cape Town), Jon Court, Michael Puhich, 12-to-1;

5. Giacomo (Holy Bull), Mike Smith, John Shirreffs, 4-to-1;

6. Watchmon (Maria’s Mon), Javier Castellano, Patrick Reynolds, 50-to-1;

7. Andromeda’s Hero (Fusaichi Pegasus), Rafael Bejarano, Nick Zito, 15-to-1;

8. Reverberate (Thunder Gulch), Jose Santos, Sal Russo, 6-to-1;

9. Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet), Jeremy Rose, Tim Ritchey, 6-to-5;

10. Indy Storm (A.P. Indy), Edgar Prado, Nick Zito, 20-to-1; and

11. Chekhov (Pulpit), Gary Stevens, Patrick Biancone, 12-to-1.


http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=55231&subsec=2

[LisaMcNear]

Post Positions & Odds:

1. Nolan's Cat 50-1
2. Pinpoint 20-1
3. A.P. Arrow 20-1
4. Southern Africa 12-1
5. Giacomo 4-1
6. Watchmon 50-1
7. Andromeda's Hero 15-1
8. Reverberate 6-1
9. Afleet Alex 6-5
10. Indy Storm 20-1
11. Chekhov 12-1

Sorted by Odds:

9. Afleet Alex 6-5
5. Giacomo 4-1
8. Reverberate 6-1
11. Chekhov 12-1
4. Southern Africa 12-1
7. Andromeda's Hero 15-1
3. A.P. Arrow 20-1
10. Indy Storm 20-1
2. Pinpoint 20-1
1. Nolan's Cat 50-1
6. Watchmon 50-1

[Valuist]

If you kick Giacomo and Reverberate out of the exacta, the payoff could be decent.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Good! I can bet about 8 longshots!

[cj]

I've posted my figures for the whole Belmont card:

http://www.pacefigures.com/bel050611.htm

Condensed version:

http://www.pacefigures.com/bel050611C.htm

[KingChas]

A preliminary look at the contenders in the Belmont.

From what I can see from the entries in this year’s Belmont Stakes, there doesn’t seem to be very much respect for either the Derby or Preakness winners.

Then there’s the Zito trio. I’m throwing all of them out. Andromedea’s Hero hasn’t shown a thing either on the racetrack or in the morning trials. No improvement expected. .


And finally my long shot of the race, Watchmon. A friend of mine once told me to always take a closer look at any horse that at first glance doesn’t seem to belong in the race.

Best of Luck!


Zito's Horses
"Of these, Andromeda's Hero looks to have the best chance for the upset. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus has a stamina- and class-laden female family, and in his last three races – a fifth in the Lane's End Stakes (gr. II), a third in the Arkansas Derby (gr. II), and an eighth in the Kentucky Derby – he galloped out past the winner after the finish. He has a bullet breeze over the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga and looks to be sitting on a big race."

Cant see how you can say he shows nothing in mornings.Don't know how many horses worked that day.Does he belong in this race?But looking for a longshot.I'll stick with this boy.Under Alex heavy and a token.

Good luck with our longshots! ;)

[toetoe]

A friend once told me to disregard anything described as being once told by a friend.

[Tote Master]

toetoe
A friend once told me to disregard anything described as being once told by a friend. So if you heed what your friend told you to disregard, you would have to disregard what he said as well! That makes a lot of sense, especially if your friend is an idiot.

Better yet, what if your friend is a liar?

Or perhaps by giving you advice like that, he may not “really” be considered a friend at all!
Now what do you do? Dum-Da-Dum-Dum????

Perhaps you should think about selecting your friends more carefully?

Lots of Luck!

[PaceAdvantage]

I've gone over my figures a bit, and so far, I really like what I see in Reverberate....a horse who won't be too far off the pace, but also has a nice late kick....and should be a square price with the overbet Afleet Alex and Giacomo taking most of the action....

[lsbets]

I haven't looked at the race yet, but most likely its a pass for me. All the horses are trying a new distance. Alex is the best horse in the race. If he likes the distance, he should win, but he'll be too short a price to take a chance on him going a mile and a half for the first time.

[toetoe]

Have thought about it long and limp. Just can's pull the trigger.

[OTM Al]

The real question I ask my self in such a race is would I play it if Alex wasn't there. For me on this one, probably still not, though I'm sure I'll end up throwing down something small on it as it is a TC race. Also, given the field, Alex is going to have to be about 3/5 and Giacomo about 3-1 before I would actually consider them overbet. The competition just ain't that great

[Bruddah]

(IMHO) the horse that can give Afleet Alex a run for the wire, in the Belmont, is Chekhov. These two will be on all three lines of my trifecta ticket. However, I will have a big exacta box on the two. ;)

[dutzman]

Who would you all play in the Pick 4 in the Belmont?

[ceejay]

I'm looking at:
Nolan's cat
Giacomo
Andromeda's hero
Reverberate
Afleet Alex
and maybe Southern Africa.

[Niko]

Be interesting to see today. Bris shows AA reacting to every top race but CJ's figs don't. Based on CJ's figs I'm make AA about 3-5. On Bris about
8-5. Bris has a new top, CJ a pair up.
Based on Bris I might take a shot on Reverberate or Chelkhov, CJ no. Not sure what I'll do.

[cj]

Based on the race being at 1 1/2 miles, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in anyone's figures for this race, just ask Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, etc...

[Niko]

You'd have to take them within the context of the race, but Afleet had shown the ability to get a distance of ground (granted not a mile 1/2). Your figures were much better than Bris on this one. One reason to use two figure makers..but that can get pretty confusing sometimes

[Tote Master]

First off, congratulations to those who chose to stay with Afleet Alex! That horse left no doubt in anyone’s mind about its class and superior fitness.
Also congratulations to its connections for a job well done!

The actual running of the race played out very differently from what I anticipated. I was surprised by how close Giacomo was to the early pace and how far back Reverberate was early on. It could have been a case of a “strategy change” that back-fired for both, but I doubt the winner of the race would be any different.

Fortunately my pre-race preliminary assessment of the Belmont was not even close to my tote board analysis. Those of you who witnessed the power of the board on Sat. for the entire Belmont card (even with extreme amounts being wagered) hopefully cashed some nice tickets.

Is that now 2 out of 3 races for the last four years?
Who knows, maybe next year we’ll finally see that TC winner.

Have a great weekend!