Ever hear of this?

[smf]

DOWN THE STRECTH: Paul Duhon, second in turf wins last season at Lone Star Park, has a system for spotting a good grass horse. “I know about pedigree,” Duhon said, “but I’ll take you into the paddock and show you a good grass horse by the way they walk.” Duhon described the walk as “kind of a sway in the back end. Almost like the way a certain type of lady walks.” Duhon has high hopes on the lawn for Ba Ba Baad and Classic Terms. Duhon’s Dyna Likes Bingo is the 7-2 morning line favorite in Friday’s sixth race, a 7 ½-furlong allowance race on turf.
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The text above is pasted from the lone star site. Observer, So Cal Fan, Racehoss, Karlskorner, etc... I need you guys to weigh in if you don't mind. Does this quote have merit or is he just having fun with a "reporter"?

Thanks for any input.


I remember laughing w/ a friend of mine in the paddock once that Sarah Lanes Oates (900k LA bred turf earner) must turn the colts on with that walk of hers. That was 3 years ago. Maybe Duhon is honest here(?).

p.s.. the lonestar 'reporter' can't spell >stretch<. Only at Chuck E Cheese.....

[John]

Smf, Good post and good subject

My railbird friends at the paddock look for horses with big flat feet on the grass.So I guess you would have to say that with feet like that , Yes, you will sway in the back, I don't know if Joe Takach will post. He is the guy that made a living from the Paddock.

[andicap]

Mark Cramer once wrote that horses with big asses make good grass horses. Maybe it's related.

andicap

[John]

Andicap, I think Joe Takach called it a camel hump behind....might be some truth in it.........


{ Where have you gone Joe T. The board wants to know. ]

[karlskorner]

SMF

It's known as muscling or conformation. Rules that apply to dirt racing are reversed for grass. Those that apply the same handicapping to turf that they use on the dirt are in big trouble.

Turf horses usually possess distinct characteristics from dirt horses (large feet, big rumps). Turf horses spend much of the early part of the race establishing position for the stretch drive where the muscle comes into play.
Breeding is a dominant factor in grass racing (Blushing Groom, Northern Dancer).

That big rump that wiggles when they walk is pure muscle. Another factor few take into consideration is "about distances" on the grass. When the "dogs" are up. A mile race withe the "dogs" out 25 is no longer 1 mile, it is now bcomes 1 mile 157 feet.

Karl

[andicap]

What effect do you see from the rails being out besides changing the fractions?

It frustrates me no end that the DRF won't say in its PPs whether the rails were up or down at Belmont.


andicap

[so.cal.fan]

smf:
We have never noticed that, but there could be something to it.
The late Bonnie Ledbetter explained on her video about the "grass stride", we did research that and it is very true.
If you watch videos in slow motion, you can see some horses with a higher stride. They usually do well on the turf.
When my husband had the time, he used to go over the tapes and we uncovered some really good winners, going on turf.
One at Del Mar had poor turf breeding but a great high stride and won at a big price. There is something to it, but of course, it takes a lot of work to uncover.

[karlskorner]

Andicap;

As the bard would say "thats the rub"

If the "dogs" are up, there are no fractions, because it's an "about distance" and if there are fractions published they are bogus. The lights that create the fractions are set for dirt races at 1/4 or 1/2 etc. So if the rail is set at 10',15' or 25' and the fractions are published the times recorded are not true, as the horse ran further.

That being the case, how do you compare horse A, who ran a true mile on the turf with horse B who's last race was at a mile but the "dogs" were set out 25' ?

DRF claims they indicate if the rail is up and how far out it is, but I have never found it. If you go to the charts for that race, you will find the distance the "dogs" are set out from the rail. You now have to do some math, in order to determine the true fractions.

I had a problem with DRF at Gulfstream for 1 mile 70 yards on the dirt. There are no lights set up for that distance at GP and DRF was not publishing internal fractions for that distance, than about 25 days into the meet they started to publish internal fractions, where the hell did they come from I asked the DRF, "hand timing" they replied. Whoa says I, your hand timing from the gate, not the light 50 - 75' from the gate. Better yet Equibase was reporting fractions in100's for that distance rather than 5th's as DRF. I questioned them who was the genius doing this "hand timing" in 100's of a second, impossible. Remember the "clocker" is in the Press box, 1/2 to 3/4 miles away from the gate, if he blinks or sneezes ?

Your other problem with internal fractions is when you are dealing with "shippers" . Some gate crews at one track set the gate back 50' from the light, others 100' or 150'. The question would be, so what ? Momentum is the answer, the further back they are from the light the more momentum they have passing the light and reaching the next light. Thats what I like about the "sheets and thorograph" their clockers go from the gate.

Karl

[smf]

Everyone,

Thanks. Looks like I have another "assignment" on my hands while I'm at the paddock.

The most important things for my turf handicapping have always been (a) VCR, so I can make my own "charts" and notes. (b) homegrown, handmade trainer stats that relate only to msw, 3yo and preliminary alw conditions for the local circuit and (c) the apr cd (used to use Maiden Stats) for pedigree info.

Since LS isn't on TRN and their replay show is not receivable from the house, I suspect that's the major reason LS has become the least profitable turf meet I have.

Thanks again.

[John]

Paddock is good and has its merit

Karl, Turf racing is now part of D.D.

How can I find the true contenders in a Turf Race. If I am not at the track. or if it is a Simulcast ????

Some one must have thought this out. I would think.

Quote:

>>
How can I find the true contenders in a Turf Race. If I am not at the track. or if it is a Simulcast ????

Some one must have thought this out. I would think.
>>

Since my methodology employs only the universal factors, I'm able to approach a turf race the same way I do those run over the main track. And I do just fine, especially when you consider that I play from home, and don't have the time to listen to or watch any of the races, since I handicap between races.

Boxcar

[karlskorner]

Rocajack wrote:

"How can I find the true contenders in a turf race etc."

Honest answer. I don't know.

As I wrote elsewhere, playing simulcast races to me is like buying a used car (sight unseen) from a guy named Bruno.

[Tom]

In NW Alw racs, i look for turf breeding-totally ignore dirt form, the worse the better. I don't want my turf bred firster showing anything in in races.
Any horse that has failed twice on turf is out, even if in the money.
Amoung horses that has won on turf, I look at races within 1/16th of a mile of today's distance and them calculate the final fractions for each horse. I use the Beyer-like scale that Quinn explains in his book figure handicapping. I bet the best closers in the race.
In claiming races, I don't care about class per se. A horse can go up from 25,000 dirt to 80,000 grass becasue grass usually has a higher bottom that dirt races. Layoffs don't mean a thing, even up to a year.
Horses that fail at the bottom level grass level don't usually move up to easily. I don't give a hoot about the pace of the rqace, second call, anything you normally look for on dirt-closing ability is all I care about.
I get more long priced winners on turf than I ever get on dirt. Just a personal opinion, but I think the "questionable" trainers don't function well on turf so you get a lot more honest racing.
Tom

[John]

Tom , Thanks , I will work on your methods for turf.......

[andicap]

I like turf racing -- if I'm selective -- because the prices are so good and the fields are large. The races are often very competitive but you can generally find a solid top 3 contender at 8-1 or more.
I've found -- to my amazement -- that I can use pace to a degree on grass. I agree with Tom that dirt form is irrelevant although I will use dirt running styles to gauge the pace.
Off the pace doesn't always win in turf, I've found. I try to keep up with what's winning because in the summer when there is no rain, the hard grass often favors closer to the pace horses and a horse can go wire to wire if he can get a good comfortable lead and race within himself.
I still compute all the same figures I do on dirt, and yes, my adjusted late figure (the old hidden pace plus final time) is often the my relevant one, but not always.
I also agree with Tom that certain trainers never win on the turf and it's good to know who they are. Others don't win a whole lot, but throw bombs when they do.
Leo O'Brien comes to mind.

andicap

[John]

Tom,

What say to Andicap.

I am getting confused........

[Tom]

Originally posted by rocajack

Tom,

What say to Andicap.

I am getting confused........

I agree with andicap...sometimes horses win wire-to-wire on turf, so you do need to model how your turf is playing. I have noticed that sometimes, inlong hot, dry weather, turf may play more like dirt because the grass is thin and short and dry. andicap is doing more work tha i do, so don't be confued-it sounds like we both focus on turf performances not dirt, and I just go to late energy from the get go. The figs I use, the Beyer-like numbers aka Quinn, give more credit to a prolonged stretch dirve, so that might be why I get away from looking at the second call too much.
Bottom line is that turf is different from dirt and it takes a different approach.
(Now, I am sure there are people who disagree with this and mix dirt and turf lines-they did this in with Total Pace and it worked, it's just a different window I am looking through and it works for me-I am sure it's not the only way to win turf racing. For me it is.)
When I am using BRIS pace numbers, I add the E2 and LP numbers together, look at the top 3 or 4 depending on field size, then seperate them through class and the LP number itself.

Speaking of Turf racing, Jim Lehane, who crashed and burned at AQU last fall was dynamite on Bel truf-I look for him to get on track real quick-his method of handicapping seems suited to turf racing.
Tom

[andicap]

Tom, try this BRIS/TSN formula and see what you think:

TT (E2-E1) + LP+Final Time

For paceless Turf races I might use:

E1+E2+LP+FT

OR sometimes if the turf is very hard, just
E1+E2+FT

Now if you really wanted to work hard (which I don't), I'd also use Early Energy ranges like Brohamer described in his book. They work best on turf racing, especially distance races (but again, you have to check as to whether the rails are up or down. Fortunately, I've found in NY, they keep the rails up or down several days at a time).

Rocajack, I'm confused all the time! If I wasn't, I wouldn't have to work.

andicap

[John]

Andicap, Thanks for shareing your formula for turf with us . But, could you explain it a little better for me. I can download my files from briss and do want to work on your formula. Thanks again

[andicap]

I cpmpute several lines for each horse and based on the pace/track bias, etc., figure out which formula applies to that race today.
Much of the time, the late energy forumula will be most appropriate, but I always want to know who the strongest early pace contenders are in case
a) there is little pace
b) the turf is hard and playing early
c) exotics

I'm off to Belmont now so tonight I'll go over what I did today, win or lose.

andicap

[John]

Andicap

Good Luck at Belmont.... and I will be waiting your outcome and explainations on the three Turf races today....Have a great day.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Tom, try this BRIS/TSN formula and see what you think:

TT (E2-E1) + LP+Final Time

For paceless Turf races I might use:

E1+E2+LP+FT

OR sometimes if the turf is very hard, just
E1+E2+FT

Now if you really wanted to work hard (which I don't), I'd also use Early Energy ranges like Brohamer described in his book. They work best on turf racing, especially distance races (but again, you have to check as to whether the rails are up or down. Fortunately, I've found in NY, they keep the rails up or down several days at a time).

Rocajack, I'm confused all the time! If I wasn't, I wouldn't have to work.

andicap

Andi,
by FT do you mean the BRIS speed rating?

[andicap]

You dug up this old thread??

Yes, FT is final time. BTW, I'm now convinced that the formulas are the least important aspect of my method. It's how I use them -- in other words, deciding how the bet based on the horse's recent form, etc. without having the time to do a lot of the in-depth handicapping I used to do when a) I was betting one track b) I was single/no kids and had time to chart key races, trainer patterns, track biases.
That's why I like the Ragozin tapes and book: If I can learn a bit about form cycles they will tell me something about a horse's recent history.

[JustRalph]

More info per post than any I remember in a while. I am wondering where you guys get your info on turf breeding, maidens etc. I find that I have made the most money on the turf off front runners that stay up. I made a bunch of money on Grammerian. But I really don't use breeding like I should. I don't have a real good source. I notice the obvious sires, but I don't know them that well.

Any suggestions?

[GameTheory]

Mike Helm's pedigree ratings are excellent. I believe they are only available in non-electronic form. Is that still true?

[Hosshead]

JustRalph's comments on Turf Frontrunners (speed) that stays up, reminds me of a "situation" that I see crop up from time to time, and that is: A Dirt race in which the favorite (sometimes heavy fav), has been showing good speed on the grass,(like Ralph was saying) and is Switched to the Dirt. He's bet heavily because of all that speed, and maybe dropping in class (but we know, as someone said, that class on turf/dirt are apples/oranges), anyway, this horse almost NEVER wins ! And it's almost always the same scenario,-- he runs like a bat out a hell, then folds badly in the stretch. You can bet on it ! There's something about these (turf-speed) horses that they can't be "rated" on dirt (after rating nicely on turf), even with a good jockey. EVEN if they used to have "speed that sticks on dirt"- BEFORE they started racing on the Grass ! This situation is a great spot for a longshot to pop up. I don't usually play horses (to win) that are switching surfaces anyway, but I'm always amazed at how predictable these type horses are. It's like watching that movie Groundhog Day (Bill Murray), and you know whats going to happen to that horse ! Now if I could just figure out the ending (what other horse is going to win!)- Anybody else notice this phenomenon, or am I the only one in the Twilight Zone ?