Trainer profiles -- anyone try this site yet?

[andicap]

http://trainer-profiles.com/home.php

[Charlie Judge]

The samples only list the winning plays and do not show what the pre-race report format looks like. The samples are all from 2004.

The samples do not show the win% for the trainer move or the roi for the play.

It appears that only a limited number of tracks are covered.


I would like to see an actual pre-race report with win% and roi for each play from this source.

caj

[andicap]

That's almost impossible to find. I can't remember if the Jim Mazur books or "Blue Chip Spot Plays" list a move's win%. (He gives win% for certain categories like BRIS/DRF does -- I'm talking about moves that incorporate at least two factors e.g., class drop, jockey change.)

One thing that bothers me about Mazur's Progressive Handicapping books is that he won't count certain moves unless they happened in the same meet even if occurred at a sister track (Belmont-AQU for example). That might be a function of the limits of his computer program.

To his credit Mazur does post the record of the Blue Chip Plays and they are generally profitable with an occasional losing meet. My problem with them is that if you miss one winner you're screwed because he might go something like 8 for 50 at a meet but you'll miss the $50 winner that pushed him into the black.

I just bought the Cynthia Publishing trainer book for New York. Of course I thought it was for 2004 and it turned out to be for 2003, but it's still a good read. (I presume when a book says it's the 2004 volume it means it covers 2004 not the year it's published.)
It does NOT give you the record of the moves so you don't know if they are profitable but at least you have an idea of the trainer's winning tendencies for that year. Furthermore, in the summary it will sometimes talk about how the trainer did in 2002 and 2001 with either that move or a former winning move that did NOT work in 2003.

Now where's that 2005 volume?

[Tom]

"Now where's that 2005 volume?"

Be out on 2007! It's kinda like the Star Wars Moives.....#3 comes out 30 years after #6. May the horse be with you.

[calprof]

What Charlie says is true about the Trainer Patterns. However, I have found them to be invaluable when it comes to determining a trainers success, or lack there of, at making multiple changes at the same time. For example it has shown me that a number of trainers are successful the first race after coming off a rest/freshing only when they drop the horse in class (I've had a couple of big scores off this angle) or when they switch them from a route to a sprint. I haven't been able to find that kind of real time information anywhere else. I guess the value of a product or methodology is relative to how you use it. Anyway, I've found the Trainer Patterns to be very helpful ... I'll take any edge I can get in this game.

Does anyone think Hollywood Park will continue or will it go to the land spectulators? If it goes I'll dearly miss it.

calprof

[DollarBillWon]

I'm a subscriber of the Thoroughbred Trainer Profiles and one of the reasons I've found them to be valuable is because they are not inundated with statistics and numbers. I found this to be refreshing. It's great information that I've found easy to use and has improved my handicapping ability greatly. The handicappers on the TVG and HRTV have said it best ... if the trainer can't win then how can the horse. By the way I've found that all of their information was very current. If you use trainer information in your handicapping system then I recommend them highly.

[hurrikane]

well, at least he didn't try some bs like he's not affiliated with the web site.

[hurrikane]

btw,

IMO, the data (at least what I saw in the samples) is not compiled in a useful format.

[Charlie Judge]

The samples section of the website has been updated to show current data. I found the comments to be quite well written at this time in the profiles section, clearly well thought out by someone who knows the local situation.

The Trainer and Maiden profiles still list only winning plays with the trainer pattern which was in effect for that day.. layoff, class drop, etc, but do not list the win %.

If I am going to play a trainer pattern, I want to know the hit rate as well as the odds and roi. Otherwise, how do I know that the $33.00 winner off a 1 year layoff represents a pattern or a single event occurence?


I am glad to see the revised data as now posted.

CAJ

[andicap]

well, at least he didn't try some bs like he's not affiliated with the web site.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Turfday]

Trainer profiles looks like a useful site for information of this type. However, what those that own sites like this forget or disregard is that they are [I]NOT a licensed data re-seller.

They can not download the data and then re-sell it for commerical purposes.

I could do the same thing with my site, but I pay Equibase a handsome sum every month for the right to re-sell it.

The owner(s) of trainer profiles is purchasing the data, probably under an assumed name, or that of a relative from DRF or another source and then their software formulates it for re-sale on their own website.

Another website that was mentioned a number of times in the past on Pace Advantage....the now defunct Thoroughbred Horse Racing reports ...www.trcenter.com...I suspect was doing the same thing and, according to the site, was supposed to "re-open in Feb. or March." That site is still closed. I'm sure when they found out they had to PAY to be a re-seller, they had second thoughts about re-opening.

I'm only speculating the same thing may happen with Trainer Profiles and others like them. There are lots of horse racing software guys out there with very good ideas and viable products that think that anyone can use the data as they see fit and re-sell it without a contract from a data supplier. No can do. Or they may know it and simply don't care and wait to be sued or ordered to cease and desist.

Whether you agree with this or not, right now this is just the way it is. I would love not to be paying Equibase a big monthly $$ chunk. But I have dealt with my own compliance issues with Equibase and they are very diligent about stuff like this. They have ways of finding out how any unlicensed re-seller is obtaining the data. And they actually have a compliance officer whose job it is to surf horse racing websites (like PA) to look for or find out about possible violators.

[hurrikane]

Bob,
Did you read he disclaimer on the site saying all of the data is compiled by hand, from reading the paper or taking notes, etc.

I'm guessing this is his way of trying to skirt the issue.

The thing is, Trainer data is really public info. The race times and splits are compiled by EB. I'm not sure they could argue trainer data very well.

One thing that gets me is, why isn't congress after them for restriction of trade like they go after MS.

[Turfday]

When we signed with Equibase, we had our own problems and issues with them....plenty of them. It was a real pain in-the-_ _ _ for us and very time consuming (programming). There were things we were doing initally (and wanted to do) with our site that we were told we couldn't do. That's right, we had to delete certain things that we already had on the site and could not develop some other things we intended to...despite paying them a nice four-figure sum per month.

The reasoning behind the restrictions is that we would be in conflict with some of their other licensed data re-sellers. Yes..., somewhat like going to work with handcuffs on. C'est la vie.

However, conversely, the goal of their Compliance dept. is to specifically find other horse racing website operators who may be downloading data (from any one of the sources available) and then using software to create programs that they then make available and re-sell at an unlicensed commercial website. In addition, that department also monitors their own licensed data re-sellers to make sure they remain in complaince with their respective contract with Equibase.

In essence, this is to protect Equibase AND to protect its licensed data re-sellers (which are listed on the Equibase website) from unfair competition.

[takeout]

I’ve long suspected anything BUT a level playing field in the PP business.

The reasoning behind the restrictions is that we would be in conflict with some of their other licensed data re-sellers. Yes..., somewhat like going to work with handcuffs on. C'est la vie.

How can this be and how does it work? Why can’t any reseller that pays EQ the hefty monthly sum take the info and do anything they want with it? I don’t understand where and why the conflicts come in.

[ttprofiles]

First of all, the comments and exposure this forum has provided to www.trainer-profiles.com (http://www.trainer-profiles.com/) is very much appreciated. For those of you who do not know, Trainer Profiles was started in the late eighties and all I focused on then was the California circuits. At that time advertisement for subscriptions were in the DRF, numerous daily newspapers and from Dave Powers RPM Information Systems. I stopped the service in 1999 for health reasons with the intent of starting it up again as soon as circumstances permitted me to do so. As you can tell I started up again with Thoroughbred Trainer Profiles. Now as then, all information is compiled manually. In the beginning a word processor was used and the reports were put together by hand and then mailed to subscribers. Today not much has changed except a computer is used to manually to do the data entry. There is a lot of time effort and work that goes into digging for this information. Written periodicals, newspapers, information from tracks, and a lot of time watching the two horse racing channels provides the information that is used to put together and create manually the trainer profiles. There is no software that is used to download, massage, manipulate, or calculate the information in anyway. The reports are still created the old fashion way through hard manual labor. I feel this is the only way to judge how good the product is. I don't trust software to do my thinking for me. I feel that handicapping is an art and not a science and that good current trainer information is essential to make the whole picture have clarity.



Thank You



Dennis McCarty

Thoroughbred Trainer Profiles

[takeout]

There were things we were doing initally (and wanted to do) with our site that we were told we couldn't do.

Can you explain that a little more without getting yourself in hot water?