KY (jelly) Derby

[highnote]

I just finished reading Michael Kipness' (AKA The Wizard) newsletter about this year's KY Derby. I sent him a short note. Here it is:

Michael,
I really enjoyed your article about the Derby. I saw the link for it on PaceAdvantage.com.

I lost my biggest wager ever on this year's Derby. It's not the money I minded losing - it's the time I spent
handicapping I minded losing. I want to get to the level where I can bet $500 on the nose and not flinch if I
win or lose - I'm more than 1/2 way there. By next year's Derby I might even had made it.

I will not bet next year's KY (jelly) Derby. I will boycott it and I have a feeling I won't be the only bettor to do so.
Every year the racing industry has a chance to win more fans and take care of their loyal ones. They seem to
want to reach for the KY jelly instead.

Keep up the good work.

Regards,
John Swetye

[superfecta]

To me John,he was trying to find an excuse .Get mad you lost,but don't look to lay the blame on someone else.Just say man,I really screwed that race up,I don't want that to happen again.To blame things out of your control is bush league and petty.A good handicapper adjusts to the situation,and accepts the risk.You have to,otherwise I could have had a date with the shower curtain rod after the race cause I was too cheap to go deeper:p

[cj]

This sounds like a bunch of crying to me. Nothing was done to the track in the hour before the Derby. The track speed stayed the same after the race. Last year the track was much faster than last, and a stone closer won. Fast final times have nothing to do with where the winners come from.

Had Wild Horses or Itsallinthechase hit the board, I could understand all this banter, but all the top finishing horses are high quality animals.

As always, just my opinion.

CJ

[highnote]

I agree that the track was souped up all day. I knew that when I saw Pat "Wait All" Day go wire to wire at 6 furlongs in the first race. It seems to me that CD is usually a closer's track. Not always. Probably no track is ever the same ways always.

I will boycott the Derby, not because I'm pissed off, really, but because I'm smart enough to know that I can't make a really big bet when I don't have enough information.

I want to be a bigger bettor. The only way to do that is to have confidence in my selections. I should have known speed was going to hold on Derby Day. I just didn't think it would hold at 10 furlongs on what I thought would be close to typical CD track. As I said earlier, I could see speed was holding, but I didn't accurately guage the degree.

I also have to factor in that this was a sub-par group of 3 year olds. So it doesn't say much for WE's win. He ain't Secretariat.

I like The Wizard's work. He's good and he works a lot harder at racing than I. He's seen 100 times more races than me, so I figure if he's disgruntled he's probably got a good reason to be.

Is PA a great forum or what?

[cj]

Originally posted by swetyejohn
I also have to factor in that this was a sub-par group of 3 year olds. So it doesn't say much for WE's win. He ain't Secretariat.


Why is this a sub-par group of 3yos? I here this nearly every year, and I just wonder what criteria people use. War Emblem, Buddha, Medaglia d'Oro, and Sunday Break seem to be very good to me. All have earned excellent speed figures early in there brief careers. Came Home is a potential champion sprinter, and the fillies are much better than normal.

And yes, this is a great board!

CJ

[highnote]

I'm basing my estimation of the relative quality of this year's 3 year old crop on the speed ratings of Beyer and Equiform. So if other factors are used to judge the quality of this crop then I can see how they could point to a different estimation.

That said, WE's 112 and 114 Beyers aren't too bad. But before the Derby and aside from WE's 112, I didn't see too much to get excited about - speed figurewise.

[cj]

Originally posted by swetyejohn
That said, WE's 112 and 114 Beyers aren't too bad.

Aren't too bad?

Past Derby Winner's PPs (http://www.drf.com/crown2002/derby/winners.html)

Check out this link to get a gauge of what the supposed "strong" crops of 3yo speed figures looked like pre-Derby!

Since 1992, the grand total of 3yo with 2 112+ Beyers through the Derby is 1! That would be War Emblem.

CJ

[highnote]

My point was that there was only one horse with a good Beyer fig and that was War Emblem and he only had 1.

Came Home had a 111, but in a sprint. His SA Derby fig was only 96! I don't recall seeing so many Derby horses with sub 100 figures.

I may be wrong, but I don't recall.

[tanda]

CJ,

I agree.

Although this may not be a great class or even an average class, it is not all clear that it is a poor class. Not to mention we may have some monsters still to come. Albert the Great and Tiznow developed much later and they came to dominate the threes later in the year.

War Emblem just might be a monster ... or maybe not. But many others have done less and got more respect. Medaglia D'Oro, Buddha and, to a lesser extent, Sunday Break may also be monsters.

Booklet, Perfect Drift, Private Emblem, Proud Citizen, Mayakovsky, Came Home, Officer, Harlan's Holiday plus some others all have bright futures in my mind (at the right distances).

The same guys who said this crop was weak also bet Saarland to 6:1 as well. You would have to believe it was weak to take Saarland at anything other than 20:1 or more. But jeez, he does have that breeding. If only the Derby was run at 99 furlongs. His 29 second closing kick would be lethal at that distance.

[highnote]

I agree with you both that many of these horses could turn out to be great as they get older. However, judging from their speed ratings, it is not at all clear that they are members of a great class -- in my opinion, of course.

I bet Saarland at 16-1 with a UK bookie. Too bad he didn't win. His throat surgery was a big question mark. There was no way I would have bet him at 6-1 in the U.S.

WE was an overlay and I should have bet him. I, like Beyer himself, believed that his Ill. Derby figure was earned off a slow pace.

I should've asked myself, "What is the probability he'll get another slow pace in the KY Derby?"

Here's an exercise:

All else being equal; let's say there was a 20% chance the Derby would be slow paced. That means he'd have about a 30% chance of grabbing the lead - assuming the other two speedsters could have gotten to the front 30% of the time, too.

So what should his fair odds be in a KY Derby that has a 20% chance of being run with a slow pace where he has a 30% chance of getting to the front?

And what if he can win 90% of the time when he can get to the front in this type of slow paced race?

Would the answer be .20 * .30 * .90 = .054 or 17.5 to 1?