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MANOWAR
05-05-2002, 12:44 PM
In my opinion,the Saudi Prince bought the Kentucky Derby! With Danthebluegrassman scratched by Bob Baffert (I don't buy the story as to why he was scratched), and Buddah scratched, there were in my estimation 4 other speed balls in this race who would have challenged War Emblem for the early lead. What the Hell Happened To These Horses! In my opinion, The Saudi Prince payed off the jockeys who rode these other speed horses! That's why War Emblem got away with setting soft fractions than coasted home the victor. Also, someone please tell me why Eddie Delahoussaye didn't claim foul on Victor Espinoza? I don't buy Eddie's story. Some people don't believe in fixed races. Some say it doesn't happen anymore, especially at this level. In my opinion, This Years Kentucky Derby Wreaked Of Foul Play!

so.cal.fan
05-05-2002, 12:52 PM
Do you bet horses, Man O War? If so, why?
Would you play poker with cheats?
If you believe that races are fixed, why bet them?

tanda
05-05-2002, 01:03 PM
SoCal Fan,

All losers believe in conspiracy theories. It is a necessary psychological device to protect themseilves from the reality: by and large in life a person's results are deserved. Instead, they convince themselves that the deck is perpetually stacked against them particularly by those with money and power.

so.cal.fan
05-05-2002, 01:09 PM
All losers believe in conspiracy theories.



This is a true statement.
In the 40 years I have been in horseracing, it has always and always will be true.

If handicappers would look for their own errors, work to correct them, and dismiss crookedness, they may just have a winning year.

Lefty
05-05-2002, 01:24 PM
Horses don't always run to our scenarios. Please don't waste your money betting horses if this is what you truly think and please change your "nick" your comments prove you unworthy to use it.

highnote
05-05-2002, 01:25 PM
I don't buy the conspiracy theory, but it's a pretty creative one. I didn't think of it.

Personally, I always try to find (for fun only) a "presidential" theory.

The year Sea Hero won his owner was Mellon who owned Rokeby Stables. Rokeby Stables farm is (was?) next to CIA headquarters in Virginia. George Bush, Sr. was head of the CIA and was the U.S. president at the time.

Every year I'm able to make this connection - but it's always AFTER THE RACE that it's so obvious.

This year George Bush, Jr. is involved in a war on terrorism - against a Saudi Arabian - Bin Laden. This year's winner - War Emblem. This year's owner - a Saudi. See how easy this game is.

I think an Arkansas Derby winner won the KY Derby when Clinton was Pres.

You see, my conspiracy theory (for fun only) is that the Derby is always won for the benefit of the President. :>)

JustRalph
05-05-2002, 01:45 PM
If he was going to buy it......it sure did take him a long time. Not to mention the 20 other owners who had to be in on it. Most of them are multi-millionaires, so how much would it have cost to buy off 20 multi millionaire types. I know he is rich, but come on. If he was going to buy the Derby, why not with Point Given? It would have looked a lot better and he could have had a Triple Crown.........

I think Eddie D. was classy as hell when interviewed about a possible objection. I think he said "The tight quarters wouldn't have changed the outcome, he pulled away and we couldn't catch him" He made a fair judgement and it didn't appear that he had any doubt who the best horse was.

ranchwest
05-05-2002, 01:53 PM
Originally posted by ManOWar
In my opinion,the Saudi Prince bought the Kentucky Derby! With Danthebluegrassman scratched by Bob Baffert (I don't buy the story as to why he was scratched), and Buddah scratched, there were in my estimation 4 other speed balls in this race who would have challenged War Emblem for the early lead. What the Hell Happened To These Horses! In my opinion, The Saudi Prince payed off the jockeys who rode these other speed horses! That's why War Emblem got away with setting soft fractions than coasted home the victor. Also, someone please tell me why Eddie Delahoussaye didn't claim foul on Victor Espinoza? I don't buy Eddie's story. Some people don't believe in fixed races. Some say it doesn't happen anymore, especially at this level. In my opinion, This Years Kentucky Derby Wreaked Of Foul Play!

I had War Emblem rated far superior in early speed, even against the scratched horses, and able to take the distance.

I played the 3 and 5 on top and took the 13 out on a final elimination, so I missed those big payouts, but I was not at all surprised that War Emblem won.

You need to do the same as me, just handicap a little better next year. No conspiracy.

so.cal.fan
05-05-2002, 02:28 PM
Swetyejohn:
Now, I really like your "presidental theory"
Who are we, on this forum, to say this is not a "Universal Arrangement" a U.A. so to speak?
You may have discovered the "missing link" of handicapping.
:eek: :eek: :eek:
:D :D :D

justin
05-05-2002, 02:49 PM
Yeah...it was fixed. Please, don't be greedy and share whatever you're smoking!!!

highnote
05-05-2002, 03:08 PM
When I handicapped the Derby I didn't think there was very much speed in the race. There were some front runners, but not like last year where the frontrunners were speedballs. My problem was I didn't know who would get the lead. I figured someone would challenge War Emblem. When I saw 23 and change I thought he had a chance to go gate to wire. When I saw 47 and no one challenged the race was over in my opinion.

When the first race of the card, a 6 furlonger, went wire to wire with Pat "Wait All" Day up, I knew speed was king. I still wasn't certain who would grab the early lead in the Derby. Even if I knew who would grab the lead I couldn't have predicted that no one would challenge him.

Did you notice that the first three finishers were 1-2-3 going into the first turn?

Here's a conspiracy theory for you: Maybe the track was souped up because CD management knew the final time of the Derby would be embarrasingly slow if the track was normal?

John Swetye

highnote
05-05-2002, 03:10 PM
I liked this theory so much I've reposted it.

Here's a conspiracy theory for you: Maybe the track was souped up because CD management knew the final time of the Derby would be embarrasingly slow if the track was normal?

John Swetye

so.cal.fan
05-05-2002, 03:49 PM
They always do that, John.
We expect it, or we should.
Naw, that's an old one.
I like the Presidential one better!:D

CamptownRaces.com
05-05-2002, 04:55 PM
Originally posted by ranchwest


I had War Emblem rated far superior in early speed, even against the scratched horses, and able to take the distance.

I played the 3 and 5 on top and took the 13 out on a final elimination, so I missed those big payouts, but I was not at all surprised that War Emblem won.

You need to do the same as me, just handicap a little better next year. No conspiracy.

ranchwest, we should have talked before the race...

I missed too, but I ran second...

I had 3 horses in an EB, and those same 3 dutched to win...

Damn 13 just couldn't do it at 22-1 for me...

Charles

Tom
05-05-2002, 06:30 PM
Watch the replay very closely. There is a lone Black Helicopter on screen for only an instant, but you can clearly see a beam (laser??) coming from it and aimed at the field as they broke from the gate. Could the doors have been tampered with by this beam? Could WE have been given a "boost" in the butt as he cleared the gate?
Use your freeze frame to stop the tape at the time you can see the copter - zoom in and you can clearly see the pilot is wearing some kind of headwear - definately not a hat.
And here is the kicker...in a speech at Yale yesterday, Dick Chenney made reference to the Saudi Prince's good fortune in the derby - a full two minutes bofore the race went off. Chenney explained it wishfull thinking. And a friend of mine, who was at the Derby inperson, swears that he saw Colin Powell in a men's room just before 5:30pm and that he put on a fake beard and glasses before leaving.
This is getting scary...who can we trust????

highnote
05-05-2002, 06:31 PM
SoCal,
You're right. Same as the opening day at Belmont. It always seems to be speed favoring - or at least it has seemed that way in years past. I haven't seen this year's chart.

The presidential one is my favorite.

John

Lefty
05-05-2002, 07:37 PM
I bet the 3-7 to win. Both horses had run in them but fast pace didn't materialize. I had no complaints and went on to my next betting race.

so.cal.fan
05-05-2002, 10:36 PM
I trust PA, Tom.
Any guy nice enough to have all of us posting on this board for all these months is got to be an okay guy!

Richard
05-05-2002, 11:45 PM
Perhaps the Saudi Prince in purchasing WAR EMBLEM wanted to, in the figurative sense,"buy" himself a Derby victory. But I just cannot Buy into the notion that the race was fixed or rigged,particularly as high a profile a race as the Kentucky Derby.

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2002, 01:42 AM
Tom,

Your post had me laughing out loud.....good one!!

highnote
05-06-2002, 09:17 AM
Here's a quote from Beyer's article today in the Washington Post:

"War Emblem's victory was a repeat of his
front-running win in the Illinois Derby that
spurred Baffert's client, Prince Ahmed
Salman, to purchase him. The colt had
benefited from some extraordinary luck
that day when the other good speed
horse in the field was scratched shortly
before the race because of an arcane
administrative rule."

Scratched because of an administrative rule? Buddha scratched because of a mysterious bruised foot?
Danthebluegrassman scratched because of a mysterious bout of colic?

Hmmmm -- the plot thickens.

Amazin
05-06-2002, 05:55 PM
Eighteen horse field of the top 3 year olds in the country and not one can challenge for the lead.Hmm.Either War Emblem is a Superhorse or he was really lucky by a collective misfortune of all the other speed.My theory is that with all the hype about how the Derby favors closers,the speedballs were told to rate a little.Fortunately for Espinoza,he used his common sense and said,if you don't want the lead I'll take it.Now that everyone has learned his lesson,he'll be challenged in the Preakness.I notice this phenomenon in 1-1/2 mile turf routes.No one wants the lead,but I'll play the speed if I can find it.Everyone oohs and aahs when the horse comes home at a big price.It's a no brainer.Just like the commercial says:speed kills.(lone speed that is)

Kentucky Bred
05-06-2002, 07:05 PM
At first when this thread started I wondered where it was going to go. But it has sorta taken on a life of its own.

First Beyer makes rumblings, and then others start to disect the circumstances of WE's win. But you gotta take a moment to read the handicapping guru, "The Wizard" go on a rant on the events leading up to the Derby itself. You can find it at:


http://www.wizardpicks.com/about/newsletter/index.htm

I don't know if the hyperlink will work, I hope so. If not--sorry--just cut and paste into your browser. Once you get there, click for the latest issue listed. Worth the trouble.


At this point, I choose to see a confluence of many events over the last few days...ALL of them assisting WE in the race. Baffert was smart enough to get out of the horses way. Add to that the next generation of top riders (Bailey, Day, Stevens, McCarron all getting a little long in the tooth) Victor Espinoza to pace the horse and you've got a LIVE longshot.

People are emerging from the backstretch around here saying that Baffert was quiet this week but privately he was telling people that he WILL win the Derby. This was stuff he never even said with Point Given who was considered a monster by some before the Derby. Baffert is having a field day though "sticking" it to reporters and others who dismissed his horse.

On another post, I wondered openly why WE went so cheap at under $1 million dollars. The Louisville Courier Jounal reported today that there were a number of trainers and owners who wanted to buy War Emblem before Baffert. The problem is that WE never vet checked. Apparently he has some floating chips which come up each time. Nobody wanted to risk a Million and not even make it to the Derby. Notice Baffert didn't do anything impressive with him leading up to the Derby. His only job was to get him to the race--which he did. California bettors know how typically fast he works his horses leading up to big races. So, War Emblem's sale price had to be adjusted for that.

However, because WE won the Ill. Derby, he was offered another million dollars if he wins the Kentucky Derby. Baffert knew this and factored the risk. So, the rich keep getting richer.

However, Baffert told the Prince that the chips are floating in an area that does not likely threaten the horses immediate racing futurel. He made some sort of comment like "their are bad chips and not so bad chips" or words to that effect.

If this is true, you have to wonder of WE's ability to make the Preakness and Belmont.

It must be nice to have enough cash available to you, to spend almost a million dollars on a horse that doesn't even VET OUT!

Some people have too much money.

superfecta
05-06-2002, 09:18 PM
GROW SOME STONES MAN!ADMIT YOU BLEW THE RACE.Wouldn't be the first time,won't be the last.But the maintenance crew....but a speed bias.....but those sneaky trainers.....but they scratched my main pick.... but but but.Watch out dude,with all that but ,someone might mistake you for JLo.

tanda
05-06-2002, 10:02 PM
My reply to the Wiz (sent minutes ago via e-mail):

Mr. Kipness:

1) If the track was noticeably speed favoring, you should have altered your handicapping to move up the early speed types. Good handicappers notice and adapt to track bias. You should too.

2) Saarland had never run a speed or pace figue that indicated he was qualified to win the Kentucky Derby. Moreover, his complete absence of any speed guaranteed that he would have a lousy trip. First, he would be wide or shuffled back or both. Second, with 15-17 horses ahead of him, even if he made a run, he was likely to get blocked, etc. A quality handicapper should appreciate those factors.

3) Yes, Sunday Break is better than many in the field. Maybe his Hall of Fame trainer should have considered running him in another stakes race. After all, three weeks before the Derby he had zero dollars in graded stakes earnings. That is Mr. Drydale's fault. He should learn to plan ahead. What was his plan if Sunday Break failed to place in the Wood? Wait and hope? Yes, indeed.

4) War Emblem absolutely qualified as a contender. If you considered Saarland a contender with 85-95 type pace-speed figures, how could you not consider a 108-112 type a contender? Oh yes, War Emblem also had a graded stakes victory at three, Saarland had none. You would be well advised to visit the Pace Advantage web-site. I started a Saarland thread in the General Racing Discussion section. You should find my comments quite helpful. Had you read them earlier, you could have avoided your grievous contender selection errors. After the non-starts of Buddha and Sunday Break, War Emblem and Medaglia D'Oro were the only two starters with Derby quality pace and speed figures. Yes, his figures may have been a fluke. If they were legitimate, he should have been the favorite. So if you believe they may have been a fluke, and there were many reasons to believe so, then you downgrade him and demand value. But you do not throw him out. What is worse than having only one quality line which may be a fluke? Having none. That was the story of Saarland and most others. If you accepted Saarland as a contender, logically you must accept War Emblem. He is faster to the pace call, faster to the wire and has a 3yo graded win.

5) The pace showed no indication of being fast. Thus, an early type could not be eliminated on a pace basis alone, particularly with the scratch of Buddha and Danthebluergrassman. For the life of me, I cannot fathom why the pace was anticipated fast.

Until your rant, I had some respect for you. But you come off as another loser who whines when he loses. Even worse, the mistakes you made in your analysis were quite basic.

Respectfully yours,

Tristan A. McCormick

cj
05-06-2002, 10:16 PM
Tanda,

Well said. I have never heard so much excuse making in my life. Picking a winner from an 18 horse field of mostly high class horses is not supposed to be easy, and never will be. He wrote that article after admitting he was at his son's baseball game. If he doesn't realize the pratfalls of advance wagering, shame on him!

CJ

tanda
05-06-2002, 10:35 PM
Didn't he criticize Churchill for advance wagering?

Then, he wagered in advance!

I guess he doesn't really have that much of a problem with it.

highnote
05-06-2002, 10:42 PM
I have to agree that there should be an AE list. I don't see the big deal. Maybe it's just tradition.

cj
05-06-2002, 10:45 PM
Originally posted by tanda
Didn't he criticize Churchill for advance wagering?

Then, he wagered in advance!

I guess he doesn't really have that much of a problem with it.

If he did, in fact, wager!

CJ

JustRalph
05-06-2002, 10:51 PM
Tanda....you took the words right out of my mouth. I have never put much stock in the wizard or anybody else that usually picks the favorite. Crist makes me laugh most of the time. His hair is enough to make me laugh. But you said some things that were dead on. Bravo! I looked at it hard for a few days and watched the video of the ILL. Derby several times. I didn't believe what Beyer said about the speed favoring track either. The horse had the look of a horse that was on the improve, peaking at the right time etc. The look of a winner! I saw the same thing in the W.Virginia Derby last year with Western Pride. He wired the field of very classy horses and Jockey types. If I remember right most of the big time Jockeys had flown in from Saratoga that day (after riding their regular mounts) and most of the big name horses had been off for a while. They all looked bad after Western Pride ate them for lunch with a local rider (Dana Whitney) onboard. The more these Pro Handicappers bitch, the more I beam. They Blew it...plain and simple.

highnote
05-06-2002, 11:34 PM
I was so pleased to see Dana Whitney win the WV Derby.

I was at Saratoga the same day as the WV Derby and I remember reading or hearing that the purses that day at MNR were the biggest or second biggest in the country. I think Saratoga's were a little bigger, but not by much.

so.cal.fan
05-06-2002, 11:49 PM
I really think we have people on this forum who could make these so called experts/touts look like fools.
Who cares about their opinions anyway.
Bravo, Tanda. You told off one of the biggest phonies in the game.
If I wanted a good run down on a race, I'd sure be more interested in the opinions here on board, than I would "the Wizard "or any other like him.;)

Lefty
05-07-2002, 01:33 PM
Hmm, the Wiz didn't like last yrs trk condition at CD when the closer won and he didn't like this yrs when a frontrunner won. What's he looking for?

tanda
05-07-2002, 01:56 PM
Lefty,

Excuses.

Tom
05-07-2002, 05:34 PM
Tanda,
You haved made some very valid and interesting points today.
Thank you. In retrospect, Saarland as my key horse was not
my brightest handicapping decision. I was of the opinion that
the Wood might have dulled the Mega-whatever horse and he might improve after the surgery. Clearly, I was poking and hoping this year - I discounted WE due to his HTR rankings early and what I thought was a false-late advantage. Other HTR's did not agree wtih me and made some serious money Saturday (just goes to show you, it's not how good anyone's program is, it's how well one uses it and bets from it!)
I got caught up in handicapping a whole generation instead a race and I paid for the lesson. You comments about downgrading chances but not eliminating were eye-opening. I threw him out completely (and even predicted a last place finish by 30+ lengths!). I have to focus better on the one race, and look at facts, not opinions. You synopsis of who the real contenders were was so simple I can't believe I overlooked it. Had I scratched out obvious non-contenders in HTR, I would have had WE as a moderate contender at best, but greatly overlaid. I do not usually look for vaulue per se, but rather I look for a horse I think can win, and then look for value on him. You have given me some food for thought.
A side note: I can't remember Beyer ever picking the top Beyer fig horse in the Derby. Anyone remember the last time he did?
He missed a chance for major bragging rights this week.

andicap
05-09-2002, 02:57 AM
Tanda,
you are my new handicapping hero for telling off Kipness. How are these guys accepted as "experts."
Have we ever seen any w-2 statements from them? We take their "expertise" at face value. Thank you for exposing the Emperor's New Clothes.

My handicapping mirrored Tom's in the Derby and I feel as foolish as he does. Your point -- even if you didn't believe his last number, at the very least he should have been a contender -- was spot on. At the least I should have saved with him.

Having said that, can anyone find ANY rationale for Proud Citizen, other than Lukas' training? I mean the guy doesn't ALWAYS win or place in the big races, so there had to be something about this horse to like.

I'd like to congratulate Tom Walters on the THR site for saying -- BEFORE THE RACE -- to always respect Lukas and Baffert in the big races. A warning I ignored to my everlasting regret.

ranchwest
05-09-2002, 07:42 AM
I thought Proud Citizen was one of the better horses in the field for getting the distance. I still underestimated him. Of course hind sight is 20/20, but I should have left Proud Citizen and Request for Parole on the bottom of my exacta and both were final eliminations.

tanda
05-10-2002, 05:02 PM
Proud Citizen was probably an underlay at 23:1. We will have to see how he develops to make a final conclusion. There was not much to like about him other than Lukas and recent improvement. Even the Lexington was a rather poor race figure wise and the horses he beat confirmed the weakness of the race.

I find that about a half of longshots have identifiable reasons that they won and the other half fall into "the anything can happen" pile. Proud Citizen (unless you consider Lukas an identifiable reason) would fall into the latter category.

Although Lukas has gained a reputation for hitting at high odds, that reputation has led to long-shots winning at lower odds than they should have had. I really cannot support Commendable types at less than 20:1 or Proud Citizen at 23:1. They should have gone off higher. Even Scorpion in the low teens to one was too low.

Maybe I am wrong, but those horse still seem like overlays. Somebody should calculate the R.O.I. on Lukas long-shots in all races and stakes races over the last 4-5 years.

By the way, all those experts who say they Derby is not won on the front-end should remember that there have been 3 wire to wire winners in 18 years. 16% of the time. I doubt that if a track had 1 out of 6 win w2w that people would say a horse can never win w2w at that track. These same experts treat these three wins as aberretions. However, if you look at all the possible running positions, the horse running first at the pace call has won more than any other running position. Certainly the Derby is not dominated by w2w winners, but a handicapper cannot treat a 16% event as if it has no chance of occurring again. Oh, yeah, the "experts" can.

anotherdave
05-10-2002, 07:59 PM
Originally posted by tanda
Proud Citizen was probably an underlay at 23:1.

Arguable, but a good point. When a good horse wins the derby at 20-1 it seems like I screwed up. (probably did, but I'll get over it) But there were 18 horses running, so an average horse's odds would be 17-1 (I know I ignored the take, but I'm looking at overlays here on a 100% line). And there were quite a few horses who had a decent chance in there. The crowd called War Emblem about average, maybe a bit below. They (including me!) might have been wrong, but they were not that bad. When a horse pays 20-1 in a 8 horse race, that's when we are missing something. Once (only once unfortunately), many years ago, in a galaxy far, far away, I got 22-1 on my first choice in a 5 horse race. That was a serious mistake by the crowd.

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