Derby a Fast Pace?

[GR1@HTR]

Let me begin by saying that I am not an expert of times by any means? Why? I don't look at raw times, just adjusted pace...but lets go on...

The derby pace times are as follows:
2F...23.25
4F...47.04

To me this does not seem fast or slow. If you go back and look at all the PP of the KY Derby entries, this is about the norm. There are faster fractional times on the PP's but they are at 8F distances and on "faster" tracks. To me the above times for the CD surface seem to be fair to fast-fair. BTW, if you look at all the other graded stakes races run during this meet (shorter distances) this is the fastest pace time for the meet.

Thoughts?

[GR1@HTR]

Guess a better title for the subject would be "Derby a slow pace?"...

[cj]

As I posted in another thread, the pace this year was honest, not fast or slow, just like it was last year. This is based on actual pars for the 10f races at Churchill.

CJ

[superfecta]

Since I don't use early fractions in routes,I think the better fraction is the 6 furlong mark.WE ran a 1:11 1/5 .This is pretty good for the distance,and considering he wasn't asked much in the stretch,points to the fact he is a dominate horse .It could also say he's peaking at the right time.He ran 2 seconds faster at the 6f mark than he did at SPT.No one pressed him,he slowed down the early pace,and turnedv it on at the 6f pole.Seen it happen before,think a speed duel will happen,it doesn't and speed holds up.Maybe PC rider won't let WE do that again,maybe MDO had traffic trouble or tried to rate,so he wasn't involved early.Interesting thought for Preakness.

[andicap]

Weren't times for the day much faster than normal all around? If so than 1:11 and change would be a bit on the slow (but hardly dragging) side.
Anyone know what the variant was?

[cj]

Andicap,

Just an educated guess, but I would say on the Beyer scale the track was about 10-12 points fast for the two route races.

CJ

[anotherdave]

I still say it was slow. It surprised me.

2002 23.1 47.0

2001 22.1 44.4 2000 22.2 45.4
1999 23.2 47.4 1998 23.2 45.2
1997 23.2 47.2 1996 22.1 46.0
1995 22.2 45.4 1994 24.4 47.1
1993 22.4 46.3 1992 23.2 47.2
1991 23.1 46.2 1990 22.3 46.0
1989 23.0 46.3 1988 23.0 46.4
1987 22.4 46.2 1986 22.1 45.1

Average 1/4 22.95, average 1/2 46.33. Not much difference in the 1/4, but the half was somewhat slow.

And especially if the track was faster than normal to begin with.

Hey I'm just making excuses for losing!

AD

[highnote]

I could make a case for War Emblem winning the Triple Crown. If this is a weak crop of 3 year olds, he won't have to beat much to win it.

If Buddha comes back in the Preakness then he'll probably get more pressure next time.

If he gets a good ride in the Belmont he'll have a shot. I think it was Silver Charm's jock who panicked and moved to soon in the Belmont.

I forget the name of the jock on Charismatic already - I know he died. A night or two before the Belmont he said in a chat room that he would not panic and move too soon. Guess what he did in the heat of the battle in the Belmont?

Silver Charm's jock moved going into the final turn. He should've waited until the middle of the turn -- easy for me to say :)

Lukas ain't gonna make it easy for Baffert to win a Triple Crown.

[superfecta]

Originally posted by swetyejohn
I could make a case for War Emblem winning the Triple Crown. If this is a weak crop of 3 year olds, he won't have to beat much to win it.

If Buddha comes back in the Preakness then he'll probably get more pressure next time.

If he gets a good ride in the Belmont he'll have a shot. I think it was Silver Charm's jock who panicked and moved to soon in the Belmont.

I forget the name of the jock on Charismatic already - I know he died. A night or two before the Belmont he said in a chat room that he would not panic and move too soon. Guess what he did in the heat of the battle in the Belmont?

Silver Charm's jock moved going into the final turn. He should've waited until the middle of the turn -- easy for me to say :)

Lukas ain't gonna make it easy for Baffert to win a Triple Crown. IMHO Touch Gold beat SC cause he was a fresher horse and was pointed to the Belmont after he cracked a hoof.And Charismatic was making his move out of the turn when his leg popped.And he still was trying till Antley pulled him up in the stretch.

[highnote]

Super,
I forgot about Touch Gold. My memory ain't what it used to be. Maybe it was Real Quite? Hell, I don't remember which one it was. But I do remember the move. I was in clubhouse seating with binoculars with a pretty good view and remember thinking that the jock was moving way to soon. Sure enough the horse got caught. I keep thinking it was Desormeaux.

I forget the exact ride Antley gave Charismatic, but I do remember him saying in the Vinery chat room he wouldn't panic. Maybe it's a moot point since Charismatic broke down anyway.

You have a good memory.

John

[cj]

Originally posted by superfecta
...Charismatic was making his move out of the turn when his leg popped

For some unexplained reason, Charasmatic was up front with Silverbulletday the entire race, he never really made a move, just got passed in the stretch. He was, however, very valiant in defeat.

It was Real Quiet who made the supposed premature move, hard to really say, but you never know if waiting could have changed the outcome.

As for Touch Gold, it was a weird race. He actually led for a while, dropped back to third two or three lengths back, then rallied to win the race.

Unfortunately, I was at all three races seeking to witness history. All in all, they were great days anyway.

CJ

[highnote]

CJ,
I was at all three, too, but my memory of the races are beginning to fade.

One thing I do remember is the roar of the crowd as they came down the stretch. Hear 80,000 screaming horseplayers is an awesome sound.

John