Gate Position and Track Bias

[Rick Ransom]

Has anyone ever studied the placement of the gate at various distances and how it affects track bias (early/late and post position)? Different specific distances sometimes have some rather unusual effects on both. I think it is due mainly to the length of the run to the first turn. I don't know how easy it is to come up with this information though, and it certainly isn't included in any database that I know of. You could probably create a new field based on track and distance if you could get the approximate length of the run to the turn. Just curious, probably too much trouble to do.

[kenwoodall]

Distance around each track is available online or in Ainslie's books. Just do the math- 1 furlong is 22 yards, so at Belmont 1/2 around from the finish. On turf spints under 1 mile may matter.

[cj]

Originally posted by kenwoodall
Just do the math- 1 furlong is 22 yards...

I must be in better shape than I thought...just jogged "10 furlongs" and I'm not tired at all.

CJ :D :D :D

[BillW]

Originally posted by kenwoodall
Distance around each track is available online or in Ainslie's books. Just do the math- 1 furlong is 22 yards, so at Belmont 1/2 around from the finish. On turf spints under 1 mile may matter.

K,

I think Rick was referring to run-up distances that vary from track to track, and sometime day to day. That info as far as I know is not published and would need to be gathered on track for each race.

Bill

BTW CJ that PT must do wonders.

[Rick]

What I was thinking of was looking for a correlation between early speed and distance to the first turn.

PA,

Can we please eliminate the advertising?

[PaceAdvantage]

Sorry, I wasn't on the board yesterday....all gone now..

[BillW]

Originally posted by Rick
What I was thinking of was looking for a correlation between early speed and distance to the first turn.


Rick,

Are you talking about something like this?



Strt Wins Pct. IV ROI A/E
Post Position
Rail 2462 405 16.45 1.31 -0.12 1.16
1 - 3 7385 1128 15.27 1.22 -0.11 1.17
4 - 6 7296 851 11.66 0.93 -0.30 0.92
7 - 9 4518 420 9.30 0.74 -0.22 1.03
10+ 880 63 7.16 0.57 -0.23 1.01
Outside 2462 270 10.97 0.87 -0.23 1.01

Strt Wins Pct. IV ROI A/E
E-Type Post Pos
Rail 728 126 17.31 1.25 -0.06 1.23
1 - 3 2165 366 16.91 1.22 -0.06 1.24
4 - 6 2245 305 13.59 0.98 -0.21 1.03
7 - 9 1361 126 9.26 0.67 -0.24 1.00
10+ 240 18 7.50 0.54 -0.23 1.01
Outside 733 91 12.41 0.90 -0.12 1.15

The above, for instance is from all 8f, dry, dirt, non-maiden races, all tracks.

Bill

[Rick]

Bill,

No, I had in mind breaking it down by the distance to the first turn, which would be different for different tracks at the same distance. I was thinking that the length of the run to the first turn might be more important than the distance of the race in determining how important early speed and post position are.

[Fastracehorse]

I am essentially a speed figure handicapper that believes strongly in trainer intent and the trip the horse 'might' recieve.

Why this is relevant is because I believe it is a serious advantage for a horse to attain the rail early in a 1 mile race at Santa Anita.

The start of the race is almost at the first turn - so horses that don't get the lead or the rail are seriously compromised.

My speed figure makes an adjustment for lost ground - and, being caught wide on turns is highly detrimental to a horse's chance to win.

Hence, while I'm sorry I don't have stats for you on this particular query, I will say I have stolen races just because I got the rail first on a speed conducive surface.

Lastly, getting the jump on a better foe can often spell u-p-s-e-t - but if it means a compromising speed duel - there may be a ground-saving stalker behind the duel.

Hopefully I didn't annoy you too much Rick. BTW, good handicapping angle!


fffastt:rolleyes:

[BillW]

Originally posted by Rick
Bill,

No, I had in mind breaking it down by the distance to the first turn, which would be different for different tracks at the same distance. I was thinking that the length of the run to the first turn might be more important than the distance of the race in determining how important early speed and post position are.

Rick,


Usually I'll look at the data for the last month at a specific track when handicapping, but have never actually done a study. I do notice that inside bias is usually strong in two turn miles and less so at 1 Mile 40/70 yds. and almost non-existant at 1 1/16 miles. All as one would expect. I have no such observations regarding running style.

Bill

[Rick]

It might also be interesting to check the starting position at the break of winners at specific distances and tracks to find those with the most potential for profit. That information would probably be available in most databases.

[Hosshead]

Rick, Along the lines that Fastracehorse talks about at Santa Anita (1mile), try checking out the 1 1/16 races at Hollywood. It's a 1 1/8 mi. track, and you get the same advantage with speed on the rail.------Hoss

[Rick]

Hosshead,

Interesting. I'd like to see someone with a large database rank each track/distance/surface by break and post position bias. One could play only the most biased situations and do very well. If you chose the best from all tracks you might have enough plays every day to make it worthwhile.

[Fastracehorse]

Yes, the 1 1/16 route at Hollywood also starts at the first turn.

Come to think of it - there are wonderful 4 1/2 f races at Hol too.

Anyways Rick, the way I approach it is this for the 1 1/16:

1) Who is going to get the lead?? - I think that is more important than post position - however, a tactical speed-type that has an inside post can steal the rail from a tactical speed-type with an outside post.

2) Does the pace-setter have the ability to hold off late-runners or sustain his run if their is a pace presser??

The 4 1/2 f races are just as important to have the wood - this sprint at Hol starts just before the turn and you need alot of zip to clear from an outside post. Hence, alot of horses can hit the board at long-prices if they get that rail trip from an inside post.

Right now the most impressive bias for me is playing at GP - turf routes. Alone speed horse, that is say 10 Beyer points inferior to closers, can easily hold them off if he isn't pressed too hard early.

The problem is duels always compromise a turf routers chance. But lone speed is very sticky there.

I know I'll hit one more turf boomer there before the meet ends - cross my fingers.

:p

fffastt

[andicap]

I've seen this happen on more than one occasion with two turn races and a speed bias.
By the 7th race every jock knows there's a bias and 4 or 5 horses gun for the lead because they think they have no chance without early position. They run killer fractions so an outside closer who got to the fence on the first turn even tho he was 8th or so picks up the pieces and wins, usually at a great price.