Angles

[46zilzal]

These highly personable nuances one discovers that often SUPERCEDE racing logic. I have given several of mine names like "two lines over the field," "splitzacta," "going off form" and "order within chaos."

Mark Cramer has touted one for years: track change class drop and there is a qualifier on that Angle: KIMMEL in the 2nd at Philly today Tuesday May 24th.

Let's see how that one works TODAY

[Skanoochies]

46....., you should post this in the selections section also,someone playing that track today may appreciate the info. and not see it here. Just an idea. ;)

[46zilzal]

46....., you should post this in the selections section also,someone playing that track today may appreciate the info. and not see it here.
BUT, I was hoping to start a thread on HOW folks discover angles.

[keilan]

46....., you should post this in the selections section also,someone playing that track today may appreciate the info. and not see it here. Just an idea. ;)


46 doesn't post selections, fact is this would be Cramers selection I'm sure as the horse didn't win. 46's record is still a healthy 0 for 0. :lol:

[46zilzal]

Ideas are all I "tout" thanks

[46zilzal]

FLYTODIXIE broke alertly then was taken in hand, made a wide bid on the turn then edged clear in the final furlong. KIMMEL dueled outside to the far turn, led briefly, then battled gamely to the finish. ENDLESS MOUNTAIN was outrun early, angled wide on the turn and never threatened. RAHYONRAHY vied for the lead inside and began retreating on the turn. JUSTINTREPID dueled between foes to the turn then stopped abruptly. RUNNINGWITHFIRE trailed throughout.


horse wasn't embarassed either

[Fastracehorse]

Maiden runs token up-the-track finish on dirt but has a turf pedigree.

Then fires 2nd out on the hemp.

Just the fact that the first race is so bad is an angle.

fffastt

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, I think this is a good idea....I think we had an angle thread or two in the past, and they were enjoyable....

[JackS]

Maiden FTS'ers with a ML of 20-1 who show nothing in their works with an average or below jockey and trainer and going off at odds in the 6-1 range.
Somethings going on here that we may never understand but that doesn't mean we should ignore what is possibly and probably stable money.

[Zaf]

How about 2nd time starters with first time lasix. Any of you DB guys check this one out ?

ZAFONIC

[Misteranthropic]

Zafonic,

I have YTD data on around 25 tracks and 2nd time starters with first time lasix are 26/229 for an 11% win rate with a .83 ROI.

Regards,

Brian


How about 2nd time starters with first time lasix. Any of you DB guys check this one out ?

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

Thank You Misteranthropic. I figured the ROI would of been a little bit higher on that.

ZAFONIC

[JustRalph]

3rd back from a layoff and racing within 10 days of the 2nd start back.


anybody that can drag that out of a database........... I would love to hear it

[Misteranthropic]

Ralph,

Here you go: 3rd back from layoff racing within 10 days of last start. In my YTD db this criteria is 1/9 with an ROI of .53

Regards,

Brian

3rd back from a layoff and racing within 10 days of the 2nd start back.


anybody that can drag that out of a database........... I would love to hear it

[Tom]

How about 2nd time starters with first time lasix. Any of you DB guys check this one out ?

ZAFONIC

All tracks

535/4572
Win% 11.7%

Bet $9144
Ret $7287

roi .77

[Zaf]

Even a bigger loser with larger sample, Thanks Tom.

ZAFONIC

[Misteranthropic]

Zafonic,

I just ran my entire YTD db for first time lasix with no other filters and so far they're winning at a 12.5% clip with an ave. mutuel of 16.14 for an ROI of 1.01. If you limit your wagers to final odds of 7-1 your win rate drops to 7.4% but the ave. mutuel kicks up to $30 bucks plus for an ROI of 1.13.

So there you go, a new angle, first time lasix, 7-1 and higher.:D Good wagering to you!


Thank You Misteranthropic. I figured the ROI would of been a little bit higher on that.

ZAFONIC

[Tom]

3rd back from a layoff and racing within 10 days of the 2nd start back.


anybody that can drag that out of a database........... I would love to hear it

All tracks

363/3407 10.7%

Bet $6814
Return $4624.60 roi .68

Look how close that was to the 9 race sample!

[Misteranthropic]

Tom,

My what a HUGE db you have. I now officially have db envy.:D

Interesting that our results are very similar. Thanks for the posts.

Regards,

Brian


All tracks

363/3407 10.7%

Bet $6814
Return $4624.60 roi .68

Look how close that was to the 9 race sample!

[Tom]

Ralph, Zafonic.

These might be better looked as a trainer angle, not a general one.
I'll look at both tomorrow and see if there are profitable subsets of trainers.

One of my old angles is won by 5 or more lengths, back in 10 days. (Cramer research)
Raw numbers - 23% winners, roi .87. Surprising number of double digit payoffs in this sample.

[Topcat]

46 Good Idea!

[mcikey01]

what do the dbases show for sprints ALW nw1 or higher class, 1st race after 30 day( 45day, 60day etc) layoff and 1st, 2nd, or 3rd betting choice. Looking for Win%, Place % and ROI for both http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/UBGX/S10.gif

[Suff]

I love angle. Its what I play. Tossing ugly paper and betting an angle is right and proper.

To bad nowadays everything is Trainer + Angle. Trainers are'nt A angle, they're THE angle. And the words out, so they're over bet.

[andicap]

BUT, I was hoping to start a thread on HOW folks discover angles.

Hmm. 46zilzal, looks like you're getting lots of angles, but not very many "HOW" do people discover angles.

So here's what I do --

I read this board. Just kidding.

Actually,
when I see a few longshot horses fit into some angle on my daily handicapping I just go back and research. I'll research in 50-race chunks. I like the idea of doing rolling staggered studies suggested here. I won't even begun to think about betting it until it holds up over two chunks in aggregate. I also want to see if one huge race had an outsized effect.

Since angles are often track specific I'll stick to a single track where it showed promise and if it bears out try it out on other similar tracks. (Class and configuration wise.) I'll also study to see if its surface or distance specific although lack of enough data here is an issue.

I don't like to test angles in databases because it ignores the individual charactoristics of specific races. An angle might not work in races where there is a lone "E" horse or a contentious pace or where Dutrow just claimed someone (pre-detention barn.) Or it may not work with trainers with lousy records or horses stuck in an outside post going two turns unless they have the speed to tuck or are "S" horses in a highly pressured race. Etc. Etc.

Have found angles that do well in NY also work at Monmouth for example.

I truly believe the reason a lot of angles work for 6 months and then "stop" working is the way they are tested -- ie, huge general, impersonal databases.

Sometimes smaller samples that get greater TLC can elicit more effective results than a 10,000 race DB. Mark Cramer warned about this in his newsletter, noting about how all sorts of crap can creep into large samples. He usually tested his angles on smaller samples, about 200 races or so.

[shanta]

Claimers / Up in company off a loss / back within 14 days / Trainer win % 12 and higher

Richie :)

[JustRalph]

Great thread..........Thanks guys.

[so.cal.fan]

At the winter Santa Anita meet.
Theory is:
They were born below the equator...different breeding cycles.
Our winter is like summer or early fall for these imports....they seem to run less erratic than other mares born north of the equator who may be going in and out of season.

[Stealth]

Misteranthropic and Tom,

What programs do you use to run your data bases?

[Misteranthropic]

Stealth,

I'm using Jeff P.'s Jcapper, which btw, I am having a passionate affair with.:D


Misteranthropic and Tom,

What programs do you use to run your data bases?

[Tom]

I use Access with HTR exports.

[Misteranthropic]

Richie,

In my ytd db the results are an awful 34/531 with an ROI of .64.

Tom may show different results with his much larger db, but I'd be surprised if there were a remarkable difference.

Brian


Claimers / Up in company off a loss / back within 14 days / Trainer win % 12 and higher

Richie :)

[RXB]

Interestingly, the horse that I bet today fit this poor category. Stone Age in the 4th at CD. Mind you, I was betting because I thought he was coming back into form and also had a significant pace advantage for the first 6f, not because of the reasons listed by Richie.

7/1, got the clear lead that I expected, ran tough but lost by 1/2 length.

[ElKabong]

At the winter Santa Anita meet.
Theory is:
They were born below the equator...different breeding cycles.
Our winter is like summer or early fall for these imports....they seem to run less erratic than other mares born north of the equator who may be going in and out of season.

Thank you for tipping me on this "angle" last January, SCF :) . Worked well when using some common sense.

One that I like, since I bet mostly maidens (and a few turfers)...Todays race is a maiden route. Angle horse is one who's a 2ts that ran in a sprint in his fts that pressed or led a hard pace, and faded. Bred to go 2 turns. His fts race must have been tougher, or equal to the group he runs against today.

These are great candidates to wire a maiden field.

Get some good prices on these the few times the opportunities arise to bet em.

[shanta]

Richie,

In my ytd db the results are an awful 34/531 with an ROI of .64.

Tom may show different results with his much larger db, but I'd be surprised if there were a remarkable difference.

Brian

Thanx Brian.

Another one bites the dust!
Richie :)

[how cliche]

BUT, I was hoping to start a thread on HOW folks discover angles.

I believe most people discover them not by playing and cashing, but rather by observing results which are surprising at first. Over time we will see the same results under similar or identical circumstances, and therefore determine them not to be surprises.

I'll list a coupla very high profile recipients of angles, and their short titles.

2003 BC Turf: Johar: Mandella 'Pacesetting Closer Last Out'

2005 KY Derby: Giacomo: Shireffs 'Posted Notice @ HOL'

[46zilzal]

I believe most people discover them not by playing and cashing, but rather by observing results which are surprising at first. Over time we will see the same results under similar or identical circumstances, and therefore determine them not to be surprises.

could not have stated it any better: reviewing with an OPEN MIND is required to observe NEW things that you did not know were there.

[shanta]

Just an observation about these angles and database mining them.

There is a post somewhere here that stated basically Giacomo had some kind of negative long term pattern with a terrible ROi going INTO the Derby. After he wins at 50/1 all of a sudden the "angle" now jumps to a positive Roi and looks great.

This has always been a problem with me far as DB goes in a lot of areas. To me in a lot of cases it can be very misleading and disasterous to my bankroll.

I do ADMIT there are very very sharp users of DB's here. So sharp that I couldn't even comprehend how u do what u do. They are also probably laughing their asses off at this post seeing my total ignorance in this area.

If I had a clue I REALLY would try Jeff's "JCapper" software as I have seen him and some of his users do things before the races run that are quite strong. I also have a LOT of respect for some of his users.

That very negative return angle that I posted above has in the last 2 months led to some very big scores on the win end. Maybe it is just waiting and "feeling" something that triggers us to bet.

Who knows??

Great thread regardless

Safe Holiday weekend to all

Richie :)