Metropolitan Handicap

[nijoan]

The best race of the year in New York is one week away. The 2004 HOY Ghostzapper is expected to make his season debut toting 123 pounds.
The expected runners are:

Forest Danger
Medalist
Silver Wagon
Swingforthefences
Pomeroy
Sir Shackleton
Saint Liam (possible but doubtful)

Let's get back to discussing a true classic race.

[Zaf]

Wow, Thats some field !!!

ZAFONIC

[nijoan]

I can't wait till Sunday when I get my hands on the the Form and can handicap this race. I think think the Met Mile is the race of the year.

[rokitman]

Almost always an excellent field for the Met. Wonder if any 3 YO's will show up. Usually do. And often do quite well too. Might have been an interesting place for High Limit.

[Valuist]

I think GZ might have his hands full with Forest Danger.

[nijoan]

What about Medalist? He 's a freaky fast horse and if he has his off the turn antics corrected which he did in the Carter, he could be a tough customer at a track he loves. Look at his last July.

I can't wait to start handicapping this race.

[RXB]

Almost always an excellent field for the Met. Wonder if any 3 YO's will show up. Usually do. And often do quite well too. Might have been an interesting place for High Limit.

Only the very good 3YO's have done well in the Met Mile. High Limit is not anywhere near that calibre, at least not yet. He would have been demolished in this race.

[cj]

The only 3yo I thought might try this race was Lost In The Fog, with the weight break, he would have been interesting.

[Valuist]

I wouldn't give much of a shot to Silver Wagon, Pomeroy, Swingforthefences or Sir Shackelton. I think they'll all be around 10-1 or higher.

[rokitman]

Only the very good 3YO's have done well in the Met Mile. High Limit is not anywhere near that calibre, at least not yet. He would have been demolished in this race.


Oops. Got my "High's" mixed up. Meant High Fly. A one turn mile should hit him right between the eyes.

[RXB]

Yes, I agree that a mile might be High Fly's best distance. But he's nowhere near good enough, either.

The 3YO's that I recall winning the Met were Conquistador Cielo, Dixie Brass and Holy Bull. Housebuster ran second to Criminal Type. Those were some pretty strong 3YO's.

I don't remember who ran against CC, but the other two winners each faced a weak group of older horses. No such luxury this year, and to-date the 3YO's haven't looked like much, so I think it would pretty much be like sending a lamb into the tigers' cage.

[Valuist]

Gulch also won the race as a 3YO. That was that strong '87 crop.

[Pace Cap'n]

Blessed are we should the great Ghostzapper deign to grace us with his presence in a race.

[cj]

Gulch also won the race as a 3YO. That was that strong '87 crop.

86 and 87 were awesome...Ferdinand, Snow Chief, Broad Brush, Alysheba, Bet Twice, Lost Code, Groovy, Gulch...too many great ones to remember them all!

[Turfday]

Even from 3,000 miles away in California, the Met has always been the most intriguing and interesting big race of the year to me.

It's a time when a very good 3-year-old can step up and beat older. It's a time for a really good horse who can't win going two turns or finds 6 furlongs too short to show what he can do.

It has always reminded me of the 400 or 800 meter races in track...the runners going nearly balls out the entire distance.

[GeTydOn]

Yeah, I have my doubts that Ghostzapper is actually gonna show up. Remember last year: 4-for-4. But he didn't make his first start til July! And Ghostzapper has already missed his first scheduled engagement of this year.

[Zaf]

Maybe his connections are concerned with Medalist. Maybe they don't want a sick speed duel in his return.

ZAFONIC

[nijoan]

I think Frankel's had his sights set on the Met for months with Ghostzapper. The weather in NY has been unstable for the past few days and there are threats of showers forecasted throughout the weekend. So if he is looking for an out I guess he could use the wet track excuse. But Ghostzapper can handle a wet track. Do you think Ghostzapper reverts back to his 3year old running style? He's not going to win this race by pressing what should be a lightning fast pace.

[nijoan]

Dutrow has announced that Love of Money will run if the track is wet

[Zaf]

Again ??? Love of Money won the 8th today.

ZAFONIC

[The Judge]

When Ghostzapper won the Bcup he was dead tired the horse was heaving. I said then that the next time he ran I would bet against him. Well this is the next time. I had no idea it would be 7 months in coming. I hope he is O.K and still wants to race. I seen alot of good horses lose interest after real hard and fast races. I'll bet against him but hope he runs a good race and win next out. I was going to say I hope he beats me but who are we kidding.

[dutzman]

Has Forest Danger won beyond 7f?? I'll have to lokk this up, but if he can stay the mile, Ghostzapper will have his hands full

[nijoan]

He lost the Withers last year to Medalist and that was the only time he ran beyond 7.

[PaceAdvantage]

Probably the single best time to bet against Ghostzapper will be in the Met Mile because:

a) "Superstar" horses are always at their most vulnerable off the layoff, especially against a quality field

b) Frankel and co. aren't going to kill the horse to get the victory (even though a Met Mile win can only help the stud credentials of a horse who hasn't done much running in his career).

[Speed Figure]

Probably the single best time to bet against Ghostzapper will be in the Met Mile because:

a) "Superstar" horses are always at their most vulnerable off the layoff, especially against a quality field

b) Frankel and co. aren't going to kill the horse to get the victory (even though a Met Mile win can only help the stud credentials of a horse who hasn't done much running in his career).When you say "bet against" are you talking about win betting or pick 3, pick 4, or all betting that can be done. My guess is, he will be even money or less. I would never make a win bet on him, but I would not want to keep him off my pick 4.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm talking win betting. The Met Mile is a super tough race, especially against a quality field, to make your return off a 7 month layoff. I can't think of a more difficult spot in which to make his return.

It's a one turn mile, which means it's going to basically be an elongated sprint. If he's not 100%, my guess is he's going to have a very tough time of it....I think this is a demanding race to make his return.....

They couldn't have found a nice 7f conditioned allowance race on some lazy Thursday at Churchill a few weeks ago to prep for Monday's Met?? LOL

Bringing him back in the Met Mile tells me they don't want to take any chances and "waste" a turn with Ghostzapper. Does this mean he has or had physical problems? Why is he so lightly raced? Why was he off for 7 months?

Every one of these questions bumps his odds up another notch on the ol' "personal morning line."

[the little guy]

Frankel said the goal for Ghostzapper's first 2005 start was the Met Mile as far back as last year. He briefly revised that this winter to the Oaklawn Handicap before the horse got a sinus infection. Furthermore, Frankel's horses often fire their best shots off layoffs, and one handicapping angle that hasn't been a concern is worrying about his horses being short for their returns.

Personally I think he is better than these horses and will dust them. I also hope he does. That being said, I guess I'll wait until the pps come out.

[ceejay]

One thing I'll say, is win or lose, it's nice to see Ghostzapper run as a 5yo!

[OTM Al]

Story in DRF says he may run (gasp!) 5 times this year! Well, that is a 25% increase over last year I guess.......Also said they want to run him on turf for his last career race, just like Secretariat......I'm not making this stuff up unfortunately....

[kev]

Thing is with a superstar hoss like him is, he'll run him 3 times in a year and be happy with the money he'll win. I wonder after the Met, if he does well. If mr. bobby will try to sprint him again this year, might be trying to win horse of the year and sprinter of the year.

[Kreed]

GhostZapper is a SuperHorse. He is SPEED by birth, training & Need. In every
way, GZ rules. A great horse just must be a fast horse. A speed demon able to stay on is awesome. Ergo: Unless a miracle occurs, Giacomo will not be great.
Afleet Alex could be great cause he's got the goods, but must do more. Man,
just how GREAT was Secretariat when Frankel says of GZ: "Do like Secretariat
did ... and run GhostZapper's last race on grass to show ..." IOWs, Frankel
LOVES GhostZapper & compares him to The Great Mr. S. ....

[PaceAdvantage]

Ghostzapper and Secretariat in the same breath? Where's my puke bucket?

[kev]

I'm not trying to put down the great SECRETARIAT, but some people will always put this horse on the top, there might be a horse to come along and win 20 in a row in G1's threw G3' and people will still say, SEC is still the best. I ask why?? We all know what he did in the Bel. vs. horses that never came back and won again in their life ( I was told, is there anyway to see if this is true ) When the great one faced older horses he was 5-3-2-0 ( two came on the turf ) what about S. Bid hell he won 26 out of 30 now that's a superstar. I don't have Ghostzapper pp's in front of me I don't know what his record is, but what would it take for a horse for once to have people say he's better than big red?? What about CIGAR he ran in 15 G1's and was 15-11-2-1. I know Pace you was talking about Ghost vs. Sec. sorry to get off track here. I know it's hard to say who's the best ever, I would say there's a group that is up there and not give out a whos' #1 and #2 and so on.

[kev]

I would also like to add this, sometimes we need to just sit back and enjoy what we have running now and rem the great's from the past.

[The Judge]

What made him so great he set records when he ran. His jockey was a hinderance not an aid. He ran a faster final fraction then the first fraction he was only 3 years old. He beat his stable mate who the year before won the first twe legs of the triple crown and almost won it all. He worked faster then most horses could run. I don't know if its true but it was said every time he lost he was sick and his connection didn't know or ran him anyway.

[Observer]

Are you kidding .. Cigar & Secretariat??? NO CONTEST.

And maybe if Ghostzapper didn't "work" his life away while running barely enough races in a year to count on one hand .. racing fans would be more familiar with him.

When I say "work" his life away .. it's a frustrating statement, because I find it confusing how often this horse works out for how infrequently he races.

It's depressing that a horse with that much ability and potential was wasted so early with the idea that he was purely a sprinter, and when he was finally stretched out, he ran just a couple of races before being sidelined again.

Yeah, it's great that he's still "racing" at age 5 .. but he's hardly run any races .. and officially, he hasn't raced at age 5, yet.

As of Friday, May 27, Ghostzapper's career record:
10-8-0-1 $2,996,120.

[kev]

Is that all you could come up with " are you kidding " talk about the two and how much they are different I would like to hear it, cause I don't get it. What was wrong with Cigar??

[Observer]

Nothing was "wrong" with Cigar. I just don't believe he compares to Secretariat.

Secretariat was special from the beginning, and he did things horses weren't supposed to be able to do .. including as already pointed out .. running final quarters faster than legit opening quarters.

Cigar spent the beginning of his career .. somewhat floundering on turf .. before immediately flourishing when put back on dirt. (Cigar did have two dirt sprints before moving to turf - he won the second).

Secretariat was a superstar on both dirt AND turf .. a truly versatile runner .. he had speed when he wanted to use it .. he had a rapid turn of foot .. he had a way of attacking and accelerating on turns. The same can simply not be said of Cigar.

Yes, Cigar won 16 races in a row .. and that is an astonishing task. But in my opinion, Secretariat was a better racehorse than Cigar, no question.

Keep in mind, though .. ask 10 different people for their Top 10 of racing .. and you're going to get 10 different answers!
:)

[KingChas]

Is that all you could come up with " are you kidding " talk about the two and how much they are different I would like to hear it, cause I don't get it. What was wrong with Cigar??

Lets see Cigar started career on turf (dud).Great on dirt.Secretariat any surface,distance,track etc....How many horses have won G1's on turf and dirt?Wrong ballpark.How great would Big Red have been at 4 or even 5 yrs old?He would have been Eclipse award winner dirt and turf every year!Nothing wrong with Cigar in his time ,but not in Secretariats time(s).

Difference= Night and Day.

[Tom]

I hope GZ loses Monday. If he wins, they are likely to add a pound for his next race, and Bobby won't run him again.:rolleyes:

He made such a fuss about Megahertz getting a pound after an easy G2 win, must be he thinks MH is such a lousy horse a pound will stop her. Jerk!

[kev]

Yes, I think people shouldnt put number ranking on horses, but you could ask someone who are some of the best ever. Now let me ask you all this?? Is there any horse that is up there with Sec.?? Let's not get into what if Sec was going to run at 4 or 5, cause that was my point soon as he start to run against the older horses he came back down to there level ( on dirt ). What about BID?? FOREGO? AFFIRMED? That's something we won't see anymore, horses that are great and run more than 20 times. Ghost might have 3 or 4 more races in him before he's done. Has anyone ever done something like the FPS's on the old horses of the past??

[kev]

Jerry Brown of Thorograph wrote this today about the Met Mile and among other topic's.

" Over the years the Belmont surface has changed considerably--the cushion, which was 2 1/2" deep back when Secretariat and the 70's superstars were running, is now alomst 4". To give you an idea of what this means, there was one day in 2003 when the cushion was only 3"--the day Najran ran a mile in 1:32:24. Additionally, the track now has a higher percentage of sand, which dries out faster, but is slower when dry (fast) than when it had more clay.

" The result of the changes is a track which, among other things, is much slower, and obscures the fact the equine athletes that compete over it are much, much faster than their ancestors of a few generations ago. In part this is because a generation for thoroughbreds takes about one-third as long as it does for humans--Secretariat is to today's top racehorses as Jesse Owens is today's track stars. Other reasons for improvement include advances in nutrition and sprots medicine, including unfortunately some which have prompted the security measures recently implemented at the NYRA tracks."

[The Judge]

To Say that Secretariat is to todays top horse is as Jessie Owens is to todays top athelete ignores one major fact. Secretariat still holds the world record for 1 1/2 2:24 or 55 feet per second while Jessie Owens does not. As a matter of fact most of the North American Records Times are from 1973- 1995 as of 2000. This is even with the improved diet, better shoes, better medication, more savy trainers and so on and so on. Spectacular Bid ran 1 1/4 in 1:57 4/5 in 1980 25 years ago 56.30fps. I think Jerry needs to rethink his position and re-read "Dosage (Pedigree and Performance)"by Steve Roman.

[kev]

You just when right over and didn't brother to bring up the point about the track being different now from then?? This also from him.

So, how do we quantify the improvement? We can’t use raw times, but is there some way we can extrapolate to estimate how much thoroughbreds have improved? Well, we can look at some other breeds.

The mile record for humans when Thoro-Graph began making figures in 1982 was 3:47:33. It is now 3:43:13, a difference of almost 2% of final time (and that represents a lot less improvement than in the previous 20 years, for whatever reason).

But the closest thing we have to a parallel is standardbred racing, since they are horses, and the economic forces driving that industry are very similar to those in our game. While there have been some changes in racing surfaces, harness tracks are for the most part hard and flat, since the injury dynamics are different, and they almost always run exactly a mile, which makes things easy. Just for starters, in 1980 there were 138 miles trotted in less than 2 minutes—in 2002 there were 5,972. Pacers broke 2 minutes 3,760 times in 1980, 42,598 times last year. Records are kept broken out for individual ages, genders, and gaits, as well:

Trotters 2002 1990 1980
2yo c&g 1:53:2 1:55:3 1:57
2yo f 1:55 1:55 1:56:3
3yo c&g 1:51:3 1:52:1 1:55
3yo f 1:52:1 1:52:4 1:56:3
4+ c&g 1:50:4 1:53 1:54:4
Mare 1:51:4 1:54:4 1:55:2

Pacers 2002 1990 1980
2yo c&g 1:50 1:51:1 1:54
2yo f 1:51:2 1:51:2 1:56:1
3yo c&g 1:48 1:48:2 1:49:1
3yo f 1:49:2 1:51:2 1:53:3
4+ c&g 1:46:1 1:49:2 1:52
Mare 1:48:4 1:50:4 1:52:4

Based on the above, and assuming track speeds have stayed relatively constant (a big assumption), standardbreds have cut their times (improved) by about 3.25% since 1980. Using six furlongs for convenience, since one fifth of a second equals one Thoro-Graph point at that distance, and using a base time of 1:10 because it makes the math easy, the same degree of improvement in thoroughbreds would result in running about two seconds and a fifth faster, or 11 points. Which would be an awful lot.

But ultimately, Patrick Cunningham had exactly the right idea. The best way to compare horses from generation to generation is through using accurate performance figures, since their whole purpose is to compare horses which run on different days, over different tracks. The one caveat is this: you can’t do it with figures that use claiming pars that anchor the data base in place by ASSUMING that the breed does not improve over time. That becomes a self fulfilling prophecy by definition—if you decide the claimers can’t improve (particularly ridiculous given the move-up trainers), the figures for the stake horses can only improve if they get better RELATIVE to the claimers.

So, how much have racehorses in this country improved, using the best available means (Thoro-Graph) as a measure? The answer is, not as much as harness horses. If we get the time we’ll run a study division by division (25k older male claimers, etc.), at least for the data from 1992 on that we have stored electronically. But it’s pretty easy to make a rough estimate by looking at two things:

1—The figure it takes to win big races like the Derby (winners from 1982 on are available on this site) is about 5 points faster than it was when we started making figures.

2— Len Friedman posted on the Ragozin site a while back that the reason their figures could be used to compare horses from different generations is BECAUSE they anchor the figures to claiming pars—he had it exactly backward, but it sets up a useful scale. When we started making figures they ran about 3 points slower than Ragozin’s (zero points are arbitrary—you could put it anywhere). While there is tremendous variance race to race, track to track (depending on who is making the “Ragozin” figures), and distance to distance (don’t get me started), our figures now run about 3 points faster on average. So on that basis you could conclude horses have gotten about 6 points faster.

Which is interesting, if you keep in mind Cunningham’s Timeform study, which would indicate that genetics alone figured to improve the breed by almost 4 Thoro-Graph points over this time period. Factor in Lasix, improved nutrition, and everything else, and it certainly seems 5-6 points of improvement since 1982 is about right. Five points at 6 furlongs is one second, which using our 1:10 example means racehorses have improved about 1.5 percent.

[The Judge]

I didn't forget about the "track", that is Belmont. Horses run on many tracks when Belmont isn't open the same horses go somewhere else and run. They go to tracks that aren't "4'' deep. I guess what is being said is that as a breed the horses are getting faster according to "thorograph". For myself I'll stick with Steve Roman "In the future, records will be broken one by one, and a new line (or frontier) will be established as the breed evolves toward more speed. This linear relationship between average speed and distance is a permanent phenomenon and can be demonstrated at any point in the past. Any shift is position of the straightg line of the graph( record times from 5f-12f)is merely a visualization of the movement of the frontier of speed. In other words to see if horses are running faster shouldn't some North American records be falling. Right now the breed is not advancing this is why Jessie Owens records still stand at least in the horse world.

[PaceAdvantage]

But if the tracks are slower now than they were then (and I don't know if they are or not, but assume they are), how can you say the breed is not advancing if you are basing your conclusion, in part, on old track records still in existence?

The breed may not be advancing, but it still could easily be on par....

[The Judge]

This is the first time that I have ever heard that tracks today are slower then tracks in the past I've always heard the opposite. The way things started off only Belmont was mentioned and no date of improved speed was mentioned, now we have Churchhill Downs and a date of 1982 for showing that horses are getting faster.Thats 23 years!!! That takes in a number of North American records. My point was that the Jessie Owens analogy is a bad one because in the horse world the Jessie Owens still hold the records even with modern day improvements. I just don't think that as a whole horses are faster yet. I think it will happen but I don't think it's happening now. Maybe style and dosage can explain some of what is being seen by thorograph by style I mean speed was not always looked upon as it is today. Many east coast trainers as late as the mid 1980's would not ship west while the west coast trainers shipped to where ever the money was. Why ?because speed was king on the west coast. When they did ship west you could see by the slow works that they didn't understand that when their horses started to run the race would be over. Now everyone understands speed.

[RXB]

I don't think that the breed has advanced. Maybe more horses can run 5f faster than before, but that's about it.

From a soundness standpoint, it has declined significantly. The great horses of yesteryear could run fast races every two weeks. Today's top animals would injure themselves if they attempted such a feat.

[PaceAdvantage]

This is the first time that I have ever heard that tracks today are slower then tracks in the past I've always heard the opposite.

I was only going by post #42 in this thread:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=193515&postcount=42

[46zilzal]

I don't think that the breed has advanced. Maybe more horses can run 5f faster than before, but that's about it.

From a soundness standpoint, it has declined significantly. The great horses of yesteryear could run fast races every two weeks. Today's top animals would injure themselves if they attempted such a feat.
There is no stage (grade one) allowing anyone to elucidate stamina on dirt. When was the last CHEF-de-race (a dirt runner) added to the stamina wing? Run the Gauntlet?..probably were some later that had mixed classifications, but breed speed to speed long enough, create NO platform to test it at top class racing conditions and then it (stamina) disappears.

[garyoz]

No mention of performance enhancing drugs? Just look at the super trainer phenomenon. I personally believe that Jerry Brown is correct, that horses have speeded up and tracks have been slowed down to protect the horses and the investments they represent. Dr. Frankelstein anyone?

[PaceAdvantage]

Having just run my numbers on this race (Met Mile), I would just like to say that Ghostzapper should roll over this field, no questions asked. He's simply flat out dominating.

Unless he returns a shell of his former self, he rolls. I would like to retract all of my prior statements which say that now would be a good time to bet against him.

With that said, my upset special is Silver Wagon....anything 15-1 or higher on Silver Wagon, and I will make a small wager. Otherwise, I pass and watch.

[lsbets]

I have to agree PA, I just looked at the race and the only thing to do seems to be single Ghostzapper in the P4 and look for a price in one of the other legs. He looks that solid in here.

[Tee]

Two way approach - Love of Money on the front & Sir Shackleton from the back of the pack.

Watch the show pools?

[Tom]

Well, so much for thinking he was vunerable today! LOL!

PA, what paceline did you use for GZ (assuming you only use one line)?

I used the 7 furlong trace four back - still good enough to make him the best late horse in the filed. Forrest Danger looked not right today - sweaty, then wide, then flat. He was my second choice and he ran like I was riding him!:D

[cj]

PA, what paceline did you use for GZ (assuming you only use one line)?

You'd have to go back pretty far to find one that wouldn't beat this field. Fun race to watch even if you didn't bet.

[RXB]

They'll get 80,000+ to watch a mediocre bunch of 3YO's in the Belmont. An absolutely outstanding horse shows up today and they get 15,000. But hey, it wasn't a "TRIPLE CROWN" race. And if your horse isn't a 3YO, it's a nobody.

I love the people who run this sport.

[PaceAdvantage]

RXB, no way they get 80,000 for the Belmont this year. They have sold out the reserved seats, which are 30,000. I predict no more than 25,000 others show up, which leaves me with 55,000 - 60,000 for this race, maybe LESS.

The bans NYRA has put into place (no bringing your own alcohol, no tents in the backyard, etc) is going to put a noticable CRIMP in the attendence, especially since there is no TC to shoot for.

[PaceAdvantage]

Tom, I used his last two starts (BC Classic and Woodward). The computer picks the pacelines, and can theoretically use all 10 if it sees fit.....

[RXB]

RXB, no way they get 80,000 for the Belmont this year. They have sold out the reserved seats, which are 30,000. I predict no more than 25,000 others show up, which leaves me with 55,000 - 60,000 for this race, maybe LESS.

The bans NYRA has put into place (no bringing your own alcohol, no tents in the backyard, etc) is going to put a noticable CRIMP in the attendence, especially since there is no TC to shoot for.

That's still four times the number that showed up today. Why? Because the chimps in charge have decided to focus most of the marketing/breeding/training efforts (and of course, the biggest purse money) on 3YO's.

So the best horse (by far) in North America goes relatively unnoticed while a group of not-ready-for-primetime players take centre stage, same like every year.

The industry types claim that they need a superhorse to put racing back into the public consciousness. So now they've got an exceptional horse, and they can't really make use of him, because they've reduced the older horses to mere second fiddles in the eyes of the general public. (Quite the thing to do with your best runners.)

[cj]

RXB,

I would argue that if this horse started racing more, the crowds would get bigger. Tough for a casual fan to get too excited about a horse that shows up once a quarter.

[PaceAdvantage]

So now they've got an exceptional horse, and they can't really make use of him, because they've reduced the older horses to mere second fiddles in the eyes of the general public. (Quite the thing to do with your best runners.)

CJ nailed this one on the head. Ghostzapper NEVER RUNS! He WORKS OUT all the time, but he NEVER RACES??!!!??

Tough to rally around a horse who will race maybe 4 or 5 times a year (if we're LUCKY)....yipee!!!

Even tougher to formulate an effective marketing campaign around him....

[RXB]

I don't ever recall 50,000+ showing up to watch Cigar. And he ran quite regularly when he was the king of the hill. Older horse = second banana.

[Speed Figure]

The only time they get a crowd is for the Belmont and the Breeders' Cup, that's it!

[Wiley]

Anybody care to guess the weight GZ will carry in the Suburban or better yet what weight limit scares Frankel off? As the highest rated horse in the world to carry only 123 lbs in the Met seems low giving 5 to 9 lbs. to others in the race. If he is the best horse in the world (on dirt anyway), and yesterday was another indication that he is, and if these are truly handicap races he should be toting more weight. I understand the politics here and Frankel will probably get what he wants - a max 4 lb. bump to 126 - any higher and I say he doesn't run. 130 seems reasonable to me in the Forego, Buckpasser, Dr. Fager range.

Agree with others more races for this guy helps interest but I always think a good rivalry bumps attendance up too. Right now no one's in GZ's class unfortunately.

[GeTydOn]

126 will send this horse out to pasture, at least until weight for age races.

Look how Frankel pulled Megahertz out of the Gamely. His history of complaining over weights is scary. Especially when thinking about Ghostzapper's immediate future.

[Tom]

Frankel will probably expect that since GZ didn't earn a 125 Beyer, he should get weight off next time out! :kiss:

[andicap]

High weight = lots of publicity. One of the reasons Forego got so much great media attention was that he ran at ridiculous weights. 137 lbs!!! Remember that great charge to the finish carrying that load. I still remember watching that on TV -- a race I'll never forget. THAT'S what makes legends and fan favorites.
Problem is the breed is so fragile nowadays you can't give a horse 135 lbs and expect it to make it around the track.

And if the recogniziable 3 yr olds would still race at 4, maybe the Handicap division would get more respect. I bet lots of people would pay attention to the older colts if Smarty Jones was still running against Birdstone and Funny Cide was winning races and battling Empire Maker.

Just like in other sports great rivalries make for great media.

Racing has neither.

I've never seen a sport do so many things wrong in marketing itself.

-- It failed to properly take advantage of the Sea Biscuit frenzy (giving away mugs and movie tickets at the track is NOT my idea of imaginative marketing. )
--- It never gets the 120,000 people who show up for the Belmont to come back.
-- It never succeeds in making the sports media care about the Breeders Cup.

etc.

[kev]

This from Bobby F.

GHOSTZAPPER
Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel said that reigning Horse of the Year and Metropolitan Mile winner Ghostzapper came out of his sparkling effort Monday in good shape, but he would likely pass on the July 2nd Suburban.

"He looks good and he's eating good, but I want to give him a little more time because he ran so hard," Frankel said. "The Suburban would be coming back soon after he just had a long layoff. I want to do the best thing for the horse."

Frankel believes that in general horses are running faster now than in previous decades and that is one reason why they can't make as many starts.

"It's not the weakening of the breed," he said. "Horses are running faster now than they were 20 years ago. If you look at sheet numbers back then, horses like Seattle Slew ran 7s. Horses run so fast now that they're here and they're gone."

Better medication and feed are a couple reasons why Frankel thinks horses run faster now. The racetracks, he said however, were faster then than they are now.

"In the old days the tracks used to have a 2 ½-inch cushion, now they have a 4-inch cushion," Frankel said. "The horses are running faster and that's why I can't come back and run him too often. They're running so fast they're legs can't handle it. The faster they go, the better chance they have of getting hurt. It's simple physics."

The only thing that upset Frankel concerning the Met Mile was a lack of national television coverage.

"You've got the best horse you've had in the last 20 years running around here and you don't have it on television," said Frankel, who added that the TV schedule for Ghostzapper's future appearances is lacking. "The Woodward isn't even on television. The Whitney is on espn2 the next day.

"He's the best horse in American and nobody knows about it. If you're not a hard-core bettor, you don't know who he is. I know he doesn't run that often, but if he runs three more times this year, those races should be on TV. This horse should have a huge fan following."

Jerry Brown from TG was talking about the track being so many inches other day I posted on here. Mr.Frankel loves talking about the sheet number's. I was at CD monday and had my Ragozin sheets with me and had a few people ask me," what the hell is that", I'm going to be there Wed. for the capping contest, I'm sure i'll get that again.